| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting 09:44 - Jun 21 with 1733 views | Macedonian_Gerrard |
Seen a lot of chatter in defence of Ashton/O'Neil online citing his 'record' especially at 'keeping up' Bournemouth & Wolves prior to his removal at both clubs, and thought it required a little bit of digging into......
At Bournemouth he was in charge from August 30th 2022 until his sacking on June 19th 2023 at the conclusion of the season; 292 days, 37 games in charge and securing 11 wins (in all competitions).
For that season they had the 3rd worst xG against at 65.9, below them only was Everton on 66.8 (conceding only 57 goals in reality thanks of course to Pickford, and Leeds on 67.5 who were ultimately relegated). They had the most amount of clearances per match at 25.6 indicating the backs to the wall/last gasp defending/low block style that characterises an O'Neil team, conceding the most set-piece goals at 21 (next highest Forest on 16), accumulated 50 'Big Chances' across the season (ranked 19th), generating 39.6 xG across the season - most importantly had an xG difference of -26.3 which was ranked 20th in the league that season.
The xG table had them rock bottom in 20th on just 34 points.
Of course as the old adage goes one might say this is merely 'lies, damned lies, and statistics' - though i think personally its important to point out that survival that season was not as a result of his coaching success or some sort of 'knowing how to survive' or 'relegation fighting' as is the narrative developing, but rather a statistical anomaly and it shouldnt be any wonder at the first opportunity the board chose to sack him.
Moving on to Wolves 494 days in charge between 28th November 2023 until dismissal on 15/12/2024.
For the full season of 2023/24 the xG table has Wolves in 17th and 41pts, success! Though this has to measured against the measly showings that season by Sheffield United (30pts), Luton (33pts), and Burnley (34pts). This is a Wolves team by the way that included Ait-Nouri, Nelson Semedo, Craig Dawson, Mario Lemina, Pedro Neto, Matheus Cunha, Pablo Sarabia, and Joao Gomes a reported squad cost of £340 million (for reference, ours was an estimated £126 million in 24/25 our relegation year).
Some further fun stats for that 23/24 season include Wolves having the 2nd highest fouls per game at 12.5, 2nd highest yellow card number at 100 (just below Chelsea's infamous 105), 19th in the touches in opposition box with 795 (only Sheff U, relegated, below with 694), 17th xG (only those below were the relegated sides).
I shan't bother to go into any detail about the ill-fated 24/25 season which is pretty well known to most given we occupied the same division, and the discussion on Wolves ill-discipline and generally awful performance's is regarded common knowledge. Of course interesting to note following the latest of his litany of head losses in interview he was sacked before Perreira came in and made them (at least for the rest of the season) look a totally different side staying up at a canter before the board chose to sell their 3 best players in Cunha, Ait-Nouri, and Strand-Larsen, 2 of whom being forwards who were replaced by Belgian League 'star' Arokadare (3 goals in 33, looking to be shipped off after a reported training ground bust up late season), and a panicked January move for Adam Armstrong.
All of this to be said, and it may be no shock, i am pretty downbeat on this appointment. I think the narrative about his ability to keep teams up completely misses the underlying statistics to those seasons, and skirts over some of the realities too given for example the woeful efforts from the promoted sides in attempting to stay up. I am stunned that this is the supposed result of Ashton's 'contingency planning' - an ex-budgie who he signed previously and has shown (imo) absolutely nothing thus far in his managerial career. We are a premier league arguably the best placed of the promoted 3 with a veritable war-chest behind us, was this job not appealing to the wider managerial market? did we even look?
Of course some will just tell me to suck it up and support the team/support the manager as it's ITFC but i would push back at that somewhat. We're not sycophants, the club/its decisions are not beyond reproach, we can criticise and state our opinions even if they are not blindly supportive and positive - thats the whole point of being a fan and if anything is important to do!! Goes without saying i hope and pray i'm wrong and it works out, but dear lord am i worried that this has done nothing to help our ambitions of remaining in the league next season.
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 09:53 - Jun 21 with 1616 views | wkj |
Stats are relative, we shall have to see |  |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:30 - Jun 21 with 1461 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
Have you accounted for the 3 Prem losses that he wasnt in charge for?
Also, the Premier League is decided on real points and real goals, so I will give him credit for finishing 15th.
I'm not saying he's my perfect appointment, just saying give him a chance. [Post edited 21 Jun 10:30]
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:32 - Jun 21 with 1416 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
I'd love to read your critique of Kieran McKenna as a Premier League manager. |  |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:37 - Jun 21 with 1365 views | MattinLondon |
Nothing wrong at all with criticising players or decisions made by the club. And there’s nothing wrong with expressing an opinion.
But if he is appointed let’s give him a chance but more importantly let’s be fair in our critique of him.
I’m going to give him a fresh page to start his Town career and I won’t care about his past managerial mistakes. All I care about is what I see on the pitch or on the telly rather than digging up some statistics from a couple seasons ago. |  | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:41 - Jun 21 with 1332 views | Sibelius8 |
On the other hand, Bobby Robson's record at Fulham was dire just before Mr. Cobbold kindly invited him to Portman Road. |  | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:54 - Jun 21 with 1276 views | jayessess |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:30 - Jun 21 by Marshalls_Mullet |
Have you accounted for the 3 Prem losses that he wasnt in charge for?
Also, the Premier League is decided on real points and real goals, so I will give him credit for finishing 15th.
I'm not saying he's my perfect appointment, just saying give him a chance. [Post edited 21 Jun 10:30]
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-5.72 xG from those three, take it out and their xG difference would be 16th. The losses were Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool though, so you'd probably expect to take some hits there (though they did better in the reverse fixtures, -3.62, including a 1-0 win over Liverpool). |  |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:55 - Jun 21 with 1254 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:54 - Jun 21 by jayessess |
-5.72 xG from those three, take it out and their xG difference would be 16th. The losses were Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool though, so you'd probably expect to take some hits there (though they did better in the reverse fixtures, -3.62, including a 1-0 win over Liverpool). |
15th, after a terrible start to the season by Parker.
Objective achieved.
Well done that man. | |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 10:58 - Jun 21 with 1230 views | Guthrum |
Who are we going to get, with a proven better record at bottom-end/entry-level Prem teams?
Sam Allardyce? |  |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:08 - Jun 21 with 1156 views | muccletonjoe |
I can't see the point of digging up reasons to not like a new manager. For everyone's sake he needs to start with a clean slate. Obviously , some might say VERY obviously , if this doesn't go well , the knives are already sharpened. Until then the fact remains he is our manager , none of us can change that with statistics or anything else. |  | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:10 - Jun 21 with 1116 views | andyblue231 |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:08 - Jun 21 by muccletonjoe |
I can't see the point of digging up reasons to not like a new manager. For everyone's sake he needs to start with a clean slate. Obviously , some might say VERY obviously , if this doesn't go well , the knives are already sharpened. Until then the fact remains he is our manager , none of us can change that with statistics or anything else. |
It's not a cult it's a football forum. we can discuss things openly. what else is the point of this place. was else is the point of football? | | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:17 - Jun 21 with 1022 views | NthQldITFC |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:08 - Jun 21 by muccletonjoe |
I can't see the point of digging up reasons to not like a new manager. For everyone's sake he needs to start with a clean slate. Obviously , some might say VERY obviously , if this doesn't go well , the knives are already sharpened. Until then the fact remains he is our manager , none of us can change that with statistics or anything else. |
Yup. There's a lot of unhealthy doom-mongering at best, budgie trolling at worst on here.
Not a ball yet been kicked, not even on the training ground.
Fannies. |  |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:23 - Jun 21 with 994 views | Guthrum |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:10 - Jun 21 by andyblue231 |
It's not a cult it's a football forum. we can discuss things openly. what else is the point of this place. was else is the point of football? |
Discussion, yes. However, some people are shouting in every thread that we are as good as relegated if O'Neil is the manager. Before he's even confirmed, or we know his squad, thoughts on approach and tactics, or anything else.
That creates a natural push-back from those less vehemently anti, who might like at least to give the man a chance. As with all antagonisms and reactions to the extreme, it inflicts collateral damage along the way, to those making more reasonable arguments. | |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:52 - Jun 21 with 847 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
Following your argument through to its conclusion, Sunderland (a statistical anomaly) should sack Le Bris then, and Sunderland aren't a model for how to stay in the PL after promotion.
Interesting argument - but somewhat leftfield.
The basic premise of this post, for me, demonstrates a disconnect with the reality of what next season is all about. Surviving, as Leeds & Sunderland did this season. Experience, specific to how to get results in the PL, is probably the key to that.
Was O'Neil my choice when the process started? No. On refection though, and getting to better understand what his strengths are, I now understand the appointment and feel it might be just what we need for the impending season. A pragmatic manager for what is likely going to be a pragmatic season of football. [Post edited 21 Jun 11:55]
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:53 - Jun 21 with 847 views | itfcjoe |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:23 - Jun 21 by Guthrum |
Discussion, yes. However, some people are shouting in every thread that we are as good as relegated if O'Neil is the manager. Before he's even confirmed, or we know his squad, thoughts on approach and tactics, or anything else.
That creates a natural push-back from those less vehemently anti, who might like at least to give the man a chance. As with all antagonisms and reactions to the extreme, it inflicts collateral damage along the way, to those making more reasonable arguments. |
Top post - and we have apparent ‘myth busting’ by presenting a load of stats with zero context applied |  |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:11 - Jun 21 with 703 views | Axeldalai_lama |
41 points would be an absolutely brilliant achievement, and those totals for the other teams feel within standard range. GON clearly has many imperfections, but you seem to be massively reaching with a lot of this and your guise of myth busting whilst saying the above is a little much.
I'm driven to defend him given the mauling he's getting by some. Yes he's far from perfect, but he's clearly got some experiences and positives that we require and are looking for. Let's be pragmatic and see what happens. |  | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:14 - Jun 21 with 667 views | Macedonian_Gerrard |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 11:53 - Jun 21 by itfcjoe |
Top post - and we have apparent ‘myth busting’ by presenting a load of stats with zero context applied |
not sure what context can be applied beyond taking the simple statistics post-action (season ended) and evaluating them i.e the stats show they were not a good team and were ‘lucky’ to survive (bournemouth) or woeful in comparison to other teams and given the playing squad (wolves).
these are things that people wax lyrical about for brighton and their transfer dealings - assessing the underlying numbers and finding value that others missed. these underlying numbers of o’neil’s managerial record show he has not produced a good team/his tactics have not been successful, and should be a warning sign?
the point of the (tongue in cheek) title was to merely highlight how the prevailing narrative especially on this board has been to come in line and support O’Neil stating he ‘knows how to keep teams up’ or words to that effect - the underlying numbers suggest that was more coincidence and contextual (the awful efforts of the promoted sides going down beneath them) than anything ‘active’ on his part ie the performances of his side | | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:18 - Jun 21 with 642 views | andyblue231 |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:11 - Jun 21 by Axeldalai_lama |
41 points would be an absolutely brilliant achievement, and those totals for the other teams feel within standard range. GON clearly has many imperfections, but you seem to be massively reaching with a lot of this and your guise of myth busting whilst saying the above is a little much.
I'm driven to defend him given the mauling he's getting by some. Yes he's far from perfect, but he's clearly got some experiences and positives that we require and are looking for. Let's be pragmatic and see what happens. |
but the point is the stats suggest it's unlikely that he will get 41 pts again with those sort of numbers.
if stats just proved the points tally was accurate then we wouldn't need them, we'd just need the points tally. [Post edited 21 Jun 12:20]
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:32 - Jun 21 with 554 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
I was going to give you an up-arrow for a balanced and well thought out dissection of his career, but then you went and spoiled it with this paragraph;
"an ex-budgie who he signed previously and has shown (imo) absolutely nothing thus far in his managerial career. We are a premier league arguably the best placed of the promoted 3 with a veritable war-chest behind us, was this job not appealing to the wider managerial market? did we even look?"
Not many people are making anything of the ex-budgie thing, and nor should they. He played a pretty minor role in their history - 2 seasons, 0 goals.
The mention of "signed previously" suggests laziness on Ashton's part, which I think is unfair, as is the suggestion "did we even look?" at the wider market. Of course we did. Whatever anyone thinks of Ashton, he's not lazy and will have been very detailed in what we're looking for. Whether that turns out to be right or not - and I share a lot of your misgivings about O'Neil and his record - remains to be seen. |  |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:42 - Jun 21 with 476 views | Macedonian_Gerrard |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:32 - Jun 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I was going to give you an up-arrow for a balanced and well thought out dissection of his career, but then you went and spoiled it with this paragraph;
"an ex-budgie who he signed previously and has shown (imo) absolutely nothing thus far in his managerial career. We are a premier league arguably the best placed of the promoted 3 with a veritable war-chest behind us, was this job not appealing to the wider managerial market? did we even look?"
Not many people are making anything of the ex-budgie thing, and nor should they. He played a pretty minor role in their history - 2 seasons, 0 goals.
The mention of "signed previously" suggests laziness on Ashton's part, which I think is unfair, as is the suggestion "did we even look?" at the wider market. Of course we did. Whatever anyone thinks of Ashton, he's not lazy and will have been very detailed in what we're looking for. Whether that turns out to be right or not - and I share a lot of your misgivings about O'Neil and his record - remains to be seen. |
hands up was a low blow for the ex norwich thing let myself down haha. in a more balanced point with it, i worry (outside of the clubs control granted) given all of the noise and teasing which the club were involved with on the back of the nunez signing, the social media ‘agent manning’ stuff last season, that there is likely to be some uncomfortable noise around him online.
and further i’ll concede i have my own position on ashton which i maybe let influence the jab there, however, i will stand by a generalist question of the process (irrelevant, they’ll never answer) of how it came the two options were GON and OGS given their respective closeness to the club by differing measures, and how true was the statement of there being a long held contingency plan and the club searching far and wide as was the implication from the interview with ashton.
i’m aware of sounding like such a misery guts, but i felt like i was being gaslit really with all this talk of o’neils good record and how he’d kept sides up in the past, i just think it was worth asking the question with a statistical reference too - try to ignore my non statistical based bed wetting as i tried to mitigate above! | | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 13:00 - Jun 21 with 404 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:42 - Jun 21 by Macedonian_Gerrard |
hands up was a low blow for the ex norwich thing let myself down haha. in a more balanced point with it, i worry (outside of the clubs control granted) given all of the noise and teasing which the club were involved with on the back of the nunez signing, the social media ‘agent manning’ stuff last season, that there is likely to be some uncomfortable noise around him online.
and further i’ll concede i have my own position on ashton which i maybe let influence the jab there, however, i will stand by a generalist question of the process (irrelevant, they’ll never answer) of how it came the two options were GON and OGS given their respective closeness to the club by differing measures, and how true was the statement of there being a long held contingency plan and the club searching far and wide as was the implication from the interview with ashton.
i’m aware of sounding like such a misery guts, but i felt like i was being gaslit really with all this talk of o’neils good record and how he’d kept sides up in the past, i just think it was worth asking the question with a statistical reference too - try to ignore my non statistical based bed wetting as i tried to mitigate above! |
yeah it was fair to dig into it. Whatever you, I or anyone else thinks of OGS and GON, they may have just been the best two in terms of what Ashton thinks we need and what they've displayed in interview. Whether they have connections to the club or not is neither here nor there. Ashton, if anything, comes across as obsessive. I see no evidence he'd be lazy in the most important decision for the club. | |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 13:05 - Jun 21 with 378 views | nodge_blue |
He may be a bad appointment but we just dont know. So lets wait and see how it goes. If you took KMc premiere season in isolation we would say what a bad manager, so GON has it all against him really as we are going to judge him differently and to a higher standard than we would have if KMc had stayed. |  |
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 13:44 - Jun 21 with 226 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:14 - Jun 21 by Macedonian_Gerrard |
not sure what context can be applied beyond taking the simple statistics post-action (season ended) and evaluating them i.e the stats show they were not a good team and were ‘lucky’ to survive (bournemouth) or woeful in comparison to other teams and given the playing squad (wolves).
these are things that people wax lyrical about for brighton and their transfer dealings - assessing the underlying numbers and finding value that others missed. these underlying numbers of o’neil’s managerial record show he has not produced a good team/his tactics have not been successful, and should be a warning sign?
the point of the (tongue in cheek) title was to merely highlight how the prevailing narrative especially on this board has been to come in line and support O’Neil stating he ‘knows how to keep teams up’ or words to that effect - the underlying numbers suggest that was more coincidence and contextual (the awful efforts of the promoted sides going down beneath them) than anything ‘active’ on his part ie the performances of his side |
Promoted sides? Bournemouth were one of those promoted sides.
He took over after Scott Parker had already lost 3 matches, including one 9-0 loss.
He finished 15th, and this season he replaces a manger with a far inferior Prem record.
😉😉😃😃 [Post edited 21 Jun 13:44]
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 13:56 - Jun 21 with 148 views | FifeITFC |
We have a choice. He's looking likely to be appointed so we either just sit and moan and not even give him a chance.
Or ultimately, we accept he's got the job, we back him as best we can and support him to try and succeed.
We want the club to do well and, ideally, survive in the Premier League. It's a no brainer if you call yourself a "supporter". There's no room for negativity right now. |  |
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