| Really good thread on the current covid situation 12:37 - Jan 4 with 2804 views | Steve_M |
Summary: clear reduction in proportion of serious cases BUT hospitalisations are growing and patients with covid reduce the treatment available for others. Those without vaccination remain at highest risk. |  |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:45 - Jan 4 with 2403 views | Herbivore |
I think it's pretty evident the government's 'strategy' for this wave is to try to ride it out and hope that hospitals don't get too overwhelmed. There's an article on the Beeb which provides some interesting commentary and suggests that basically it's already far too late for restrictions to have much of an impact, so it's likely that we'll carry on as things are currently until this wave burns itself out, which is expected to be quicker than previous waves: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59862568
Of course as you rightly point out, it's not just whether the NHS can cope with demand from Covid, it's the knock on effect on other treatments and services when so much capacity is being used on Covid hospitalisations. I think that's become something of a moot argument though given the lack of restrictions to date and what that means for how this wave will now play out, we're past the point of being able to meaningfully protect the NHS now. |  |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:48 - Jan 4 with 2362 views | homer_123 |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:45 - Jan 4 by Herbivore |
I think it's pretty evident the government's 'strategy' for this wave is to try to ride it out and hope that hospitals don't get too overwhelmed. There's an article on the Beeb which provides some interesting commentary and suggests that basically it's already far too late for restrictions to have much of an impact, so it's likely that we'll carry on as things are currently until this wave burns itself out, which is expected to be quicker than previous waves: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59862568
Of course as you rightly point out, it's not just whether the NHS can cope with demand from Covid, it's the knock on effect on other treatments and services when so much capacity is being used on Covid hospitalisations. I think that's become something of a moot argument though given the lack of restrictions to date and what that means for how this wave will now play out, we're past the point of being able to meaningfully protect the NHS now. |
Also from the Beeb is the observation that we can't 'jab' every six months forever...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59865108 |  |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:53 - Jan 4 with 2329 views | StokieBlue |
Indeed.
However it's entirely caveated that Omicron remains the dominant variant and isn't replace by something more likely to cause severe disease. That would have to be a very infectious variant though or one that totally evaded all immune protection. As it stands, Omicron may actually shield us from some nastier variants.
One would also hope the next few generations of vaccine will give longer protection requiring far less boosters. That is unknown at the moment though.
SB |  | | |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 13:01 - Jan 4 with 2264 views | giant_stow |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:45 - Jan 4 by Herbivore |
I think it's pretty evident the government's 'strategy' for this wave is to try to ride it out and hope that hospitals don't get too overwhelmed. There's an article on the Beeb which provides some interesting commentary and suggests that basically it's already far too late for restrictions to have much of an impact, so it's likely that we'll carry on as things are currently until this wave burns itself out, which is expected to be quicker than previous waves: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59862568
Of course as you rightly point out, it's not just whether the NHS can cope with demand from Covid, it's the knock on effect on other treatments and services when so much capacity is being used on Covid hospitalisations. I think that's become something of a moot argument though given the lack of restrictions to date and what that means for how this wave will now play out, we're past the point of being able to meaningfully protect the NHS now. |
My hope and thanks goes out to all NHS workers. I do also worry about all the bods out there in industries which have been decimated too though, so hope Johnson's gamble pays off in the large. A cake and eat it view probably. [Post edited 4 Jan 2022 13:02]
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 13:08 - Jan 4 with 2235 views | Steve_M |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:45 - Jan 4 by Herbivore |
I think it's pretty evident the government's 'strategy' for this wave is to try to ride it out and hope that hospitals don't get too overwhelmed. There's an article on the Beeb which provides some interesting commentary and suggests that basically it's already far too late for restrictions to have much of an impact, so it's likely that we'll carry on as things are currently until this wave burns itself out, which is expected to be quicker than previous waves: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59862568
Of course as you rightly point out, it's not just whether the NHS can cope with demand from Covid, it's the knock on effect on other treatments and services when so much capacity is being used on Covid hospitalisations. I think that's become something of a moot argument though given the lack of restrictions to date and what that means for how this wave will now play out, we're past the point of being able to meaningfully protect the NHS now. |
Yes, and it might prove to be the right thing. Although that judgement would be far easier to trust if the PM wasn't beholden to the sort of loons who think any modest measures to reduce the spread are untanable.
Certainly, I think it is too late to do much more now, the rise in cases for next week, including severe ones, is already in progress. The time more for more restrictions was before Christmas but I'm not sure how much heed people would have paid this year. | |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 13:33 - Jan 4 with 2071 views | Swansea_Blue |
Good news on deaths and ventilated patients, but it's going to be interesting to see where that blue patient line reaches. It doesn't sound like there's any more give in the NHS. We had messages here at the weekend saying don't bother going to A&E, it's pretty much shut. |  |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 13:49 - Jan 4 with 2023 views | BlueBadger |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:45 - Jan 4 by Herbivore |
I think it's pretty evident the government's 'strategy' for this wave is to try to ride it out and hope that hospitals don't get too overwhelmed. There's an article on the Beeb which provides some interesting commentary and suggests that basically it's already far too late for restrictions to have much of an impact, so it's likely that we'll carry on as things are currently until this wave burns itself out, which is expected to be quicker than previous waves: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59862568
Of course as you rightly point out, it's not just whether the NHS can cope with demand from Covid, it's the knock on effect on other treatments and services when so much capacity is being used on Covid hospitalisations. I think that's become something of a moot argument though given the lack of restrictions to date and what that means for how this wave will now play out, we're past the point of being able to meaningfully protect the NHS now. |
Even a modest rise in admissions is likely to cause strain. Late December through to February ae traditionally the tightest time on bed pressures at the bed of times. Even 20-30 amdmissions ocupying beds with COVID means you've essentially lost one ward to acute admissions. Not to mention that additional speed putting strain on staffing and services. |  |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 13:54 - Jan 4 with 2002 views | Herbivore |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 13:49 - Jan 4 by BlueBadger |
Even a modest rise in admissions is likely to cause strain. Late December through to February ae traditionally the tightest time on bed pressures at the bed of times. Even 20-30 amdmissions ocupying beds with COVID means you've essentially lost one ward to acute admissions. Not to mention that additional speed putting strain on staffing and services. |
I agree completely, though I suspect the government will be working with a different picture of what strain on the NHS looks like. I think the genie is out of the bottle with omicron and unfortunately it's now on the NHS to get us through the peak, again. Does rather feel like crossing one's fingers in lieu of a plan though. | |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:08 - Jan 4 with 1931 views | NthQldITFC |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:45 - Jan 4 by Herbivore |
I think it's pretty evident the government's 'strategy' for this wave is to try to ride it out and hope that hospitals don't get too overwhelmed. There's an article on the Beeb which provides some interesting commentary and suggests that basically it's already far too late for restrictions to have much of an impact, so it's likely that we'll carry on as things are currently until this wave burns itself out, which is expected to be quicker than previous waves: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59862568
Of course as you rightly point out, it's not just whether the NHS can cope with demand from Covid, it's the knock on effect on other treatments and services when so much capacity is being used on Covid hospitalisations. I think that's become something of a moot argument though given the lack of restrictions to date and what that means for how this wave will now play out, we're past the point of being able to meaningfully protect the NHS now. |
That graph is the clearest illustration I have seen of the evolving nature of the virus, and perhaps more of the evolving effectiveness of how we have handled it and been modified by it.
Is the spike in 'Cases' in mid July 2021 without a significant spike in the other tracks (calibrated against Jan 2021 of course) a reflection of partying amongst the non-vulnerable early July? Did we have a lockdown mid-July, I can't remember?
The disconnect between 'Patients' and 'Vented' now certainly looks very encouraging. |  |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:08 - Jan 4 with 1927 views | BlueBadger |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 13:54 - Jan 4 by Herbivore |
I agree completely, though I suspect the government will be working with a different picture of what strain on the NHS looks like. I think the genie is out of the bottle with omicron and unfortunately it's now on the NHS to get us through the peak, again. Does rather feel like crossing one's fingers in lieu of a plan though. |
That's ALWAYS been the plan, mate. | |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:09 - Jan 4 with 1935 views | BlueBadger |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 13:33 - Jan 4 by Swansea_Blue |
Good news on deaths and ventilated patients, but it's going to be interesting to see where that blue patient line reaches. It doesn't sound like there's any more give in the NHS. We had messages here at the weekend saying don't bother going to A&E, it's pretty much shut. |
We were effectively on minus 30 beds at [redacted] last monday morning at 9.
'Darkest black' is probably the best way to declare bed state at present. | |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:36 - Jan 4 with 1811 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:09 - Jan 4 by BlueBadger |
We were effectively on minus 30 beds at [redacted] last monday morning at 9.
'Darkest black' is probably the best way to declare bed state at present. |
Bunk beds? Mezzanines? You just need to be creative 
It's great news that this variant isn't as lethal as previous ones, but I'm sure that's little consolation to those who are getting seriously sick. It doesn't sound like much consolation with those of you dealing with the fallout either. | |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:38 - Jan 4 with 1802 views | CrockerITFC |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 12:53 - Jan 4 by StokieBlue |
Indeed.
However it's entirely caveated that Omicron remains the dominant variant and isn't replace by something more likely to cause severe disease. That would have to be a very infectious variant though or one that totally evaded all immune protection. As it stands, Omicron may actually shield us from some nastier variants.
One would also hope the next few generations of vaccine will give longer protection requiring far less boosters. That is unknown at the moment though.
SB |
The only reason the current vaccines don't give longer protection is because they are designed to counter the alpha version of Covid-19 and it has mutated to different strains because too many people have caught it in the meantime. Viruses mutate every time they are spread from one person to another which could, in turn, lead to a whole new strain and if that happens then who's to say your body's natural immunity to Omicron can counter the next new strain.
Catching Omicron is not a silver bullet, people were saying the same thing with the vaccines before they came too, and look where we are. |  | | |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:55 - Jan 4 with 1740 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:38 - Jan 4 by CrockerITFC |
The only reason the current vaccines don't give longer protection is because they are designed to counter the alpha version of Covid-19 and it has mutated to different strains because too many people have caught it in the meantime. Viruses mutate every time they are spread from one person to another which could, in turn, lead to a whole new strain and if that happens then who's to say your body's natural immunity to Omicron can counter the next new strain.
Catching Omicron is not a silver bullet, people were saying the same thing with the vaccines before they came too, and look where we are. |
It's not a silver bullet. But in order for it to survive the virus needs to be less deadly. No point in killing off potential hosts. |  |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 15:02 - Jan 4 with 1734 views | noggin |
Attended a 41 year old man with covid today. Severe breathing difficulties, with a breathing rate of 45 per minute and an O2 saturation of 70%. No underlying health problems so refused vaccination. It's real folks. [Post edited 4 Jan 2022 15:03]
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 15:25 - Jan 4 with 1629 views | StokieBlue |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:55 - Jan 4 by GlasgowBlue |
It's not a silver bullet. But in order for it to survive the virus needs to be less deadly. No point in killing off potential hosts. |
This isn't strictly true although it's often the case.
Covid for instance didn't need to get less deadly because it was already hugely contagious and could infect plenty of hosts before it killed off it's current one. It even has scope to increase in deadliness quite a bit with such a high R.
What you've cited is however true for something like SARS which was too deadly for it's R level and thus died out. Other viruses have never gotten less deadly (smallpox before eradication, measles etc).
Luckily, as it stands, it looks like covid seems to have mutated to become less deadly anyway which is great news. Hopefully no new variants which are more deadly will be able to outcompete Omicron and that should, along with vaccinations should hopefully give us a good defence going forward.
SB | | | |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:21 - Jan 4 with 1480 views | NthQldITFC |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 15:25 - Jan 4 by StokieBlue |
This isn't strictly true although it's often the case.
Covid for instance didn't need to get less deadly because it was already hugely contagious and could infect plenty of hosts before it killed off it's current one. It even has scope to increase in deadliness quite a bit with such a high R.
What you've cited is however true for something like SARS which was too deadly for it's R level and thus died out. Other viruses have never gotten less deadly (smallpox before eradication, measles etc).
Luckily, as it stands, it looks like covid seems to have mutated to become less deadly anyway which is great news. Hopefully no new variants which are more deadly will be able to outcompete Omicron and that should, along with vaccinations should hopefully give us a good defence going forward.
SB |
There's a question relating to your last paragraph that I'm dying to ask, but I feel it may be a bit of a controversial one, and maybe beyond our capabilities anyway. | |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:22 - Jan 4 with 1472 views | StokieBlue |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:21 - Jan 4 by NthQldITFC |
There's a question relating to your last paragraph that I'm dying to ask, but I feel it may be a bit of a controversial one, and maybe beyond our capabilities anyway. |
Go for it.
We are all friends here.
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:29 - Jan 4 with 1452 views | NthQldITFC |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:22 - Jan 4 by StokieBlue |
Go for it.
We are all friends here.
SB |
Well, how much of a stretch (if any) is it to imagine a technology which could edit (or at least selectively develop) in a lab, a version of a coronavirus to be more contagious but less severe than a currently prevalent version, and quietly release it in order to outcompete the more dangerous one?
Playing *od, but that's pretty much where we are now or at least within a few years isn't it? And can we avoid mistakes? | |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:54 - Jan 4 with 1407 views | PhilTWTD |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 14:09 - Jan 4 by BlueBadger |
We were effectively on minus 30 beds at [redacted] last monday morning at 9.
'Darkest black' is probably the best way to declare bed state at present. |
"None more black." |  | | |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:55 - Jan 4 with 1372 views | Herbivore |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:29 - Jan 4 by NthQldITFC |
Well, how much of a stretch (if any) is it to imagine a technology which could edit (or at least selectively develop) in a lab, a version of a coronavirus to be more contagious but less severe than a currently prevalent version, and quietly release it in order to outcompete the more dangerous one?
Playing *od, but that's pretty much where we are now or at least within a few years isn't it? And can we avoid mistakes? |
I guess the issue would be that once it's out in the wild we'd have no real control over how it might mutate. The omicron variant is very different to the one the Chinese released from the lab in Wuhan. | |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:56 - Jan 4 with 1363 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:54 - Jan 4 by PhilTWTD |
"None more black." |
+1 for Spinal Tap reference! :-) |  |
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| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 17:15 - Jan 4 with 1288 views | StokieBlue |
| Really good thread on the current covid situation on 16:29 - Jan 4 by NthQldITFC |
Well, how much of a stretch (if any) is it to imagine a technology which could edit (or at least selectively develop) in a lab, a version of a coronavirus to be more contagious but less severe than a currently prevalent version, and quietly release it in order to outcompete the more dangerous one?
Playing *od, but that's pretty much where we are now or at least within a few years isn't it? And can we avoid mistakes? |
You could probably do that using CRISPR but I think most scientists are dead against it because you could end up creating a monstrously contagious virus which whilst initially is less severe could have huge scope to mutate as there would be so much viral load around.
A mutation to more severe with high transmissibility would be a very bad thing indeed.
With regards to your last paragraph, the abilities which will be available with the next generation of things like CRISPR will indeed give huge powers to scientists and they will need to be heavy regulation of what is and isn't allowed.
SB [Post edited 4 Jan 2022 17:19]
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