| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. 17:22 - Oct 12 with 1476 views | Dubtractor |
..those traditional tory voters who would surely be all over the great Conservative policies that Liz and Kwasi have rolled out.
Oh.
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:25 - Oct 12 with 1442 views | Dubtractor |
In all seriousness, they have MASSIVELY misjudged this haven't they?
They have piled in with a load of policies that no one was asking for, purely because IEA (and other think tanks) ideology states they are good, and because the 'reduce tax' soundbite won some favour with the very small tory membership. | |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:26 - Oct 12 with 1437 views | monytowbray |
You watch them go full Trump about election fraud once we have a GE, same right wing money and think tanks behind the whole project. Really hoping this whole failed Facebook and Cambridge Analytica project gets in the bin globally soon. |  |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:28 - Oct 12 with 1414 views | Coastalblue |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:25 - Oct 12 by Dubtractor |
In all seriousness, they have MASSIVELY misjudged this haven't they?
They have piled in with a load of policies that no one was asking for, purely because IEA (and other think tanks) ideology states they are good, and because the 'reduce tax' soundbite won some favour with the very small tory membership. |
It's like watching an episode of The Office, except we're wondering which country will get shut down first.
Got to say though, that's an uninspiring list to vote for! |  |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:30 - Oct 12 with 1389 views | PrrrromotionGiven |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:25 - Oct 12 by Dubtractor |
In all seriousness, they have MASSIVELY misjudged this haven't they?
They have piled in with a load of policies that no one was asking for, purely because IEA (and other think tanks) ideology states they are good, and because the 'reduce tax' soundbite won some favour with the very small tory membership. |
I can't believe how, but Truss & co. seem to have been genuinely under the impression that the people who voted in that membership vote are representative of the UK as a whole... |  | | |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:38 - Oct 12 with 1353 views | bluelagos |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:25 - Oct 12 by Dubtractor |
In all seriousness, they have MASSIVELY misjudged this haven't they?
They have piled in with a load of policies that no one was asking for, purely because IEA (and other think tanks) ideology states they are good, and because the 'reduce tax' soundbite won some favour with the very small tory membership. |
Been of the opinion that the Tories can't ditch her anytime soon, but the utter Trussterfuuck (credit count binface) that is developing is making me wonder if they might?
Put in a trusted safe pair of hands (May? Sunak? Gove?) and at least they avoid political meltdown. 2 more years of this and we could be witnessing a near wipeout.
Sounds hyperbolic but these things do sometimes happen. The Liberals were once the biggest party in Uk politics a little over 100 years ago. |  |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:41 - Oct 12 with 1316 views | HARRY10 |
Which thanks to electral calculas would give Lab a 46 seat overall majority
Lab 348
Con 172
Lib 52
what is noticeable is that voters have switched directly to Labour with the Libdems dropping three points
is this an indication of the next GE results - no
is it an indication of voters dislike of Truss and her brexit policies - yes, overwhelmingly so
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html | | | |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:44 - Oct 12 with 1292 views | Dubtractor |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:41 - Oct 12 by HARRY10 |
Which thanks to electral calculas would give Lab a 46 seat overall majority
Lab 348
Con 172
Lib 52
what is noticeable is that voters have switched directly to Labour with the Libdems dropping three points
is this an indication of the next GE results - no
is it an indication of voters dislike of Truss and her brexit policies - yes, overwhelmingly so
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html |
Yep.
Johnson was awful, but he managed to do enough to appeal both to traditional tory voters AND the likes of the red wall voters, even if there was ultimately not much substance to it.
Truss appeals to such a small subset of the population, and is ultimately pretty hapless (which was entirely obvious for years before she became leader), so is basically a recipe for electoral disaster. | |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:45 - Oct 12 with 1285 views | SomethingBlue |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:26 - Oct 12 by monytowbray |
You watch them go full Trump about election fraud once we have a GE, same right wing money and think tanks behind the whole project. Really hoping this whole failed Facebook and Cambridge Analytica project gets in the bin globally soon. |
This is absolutely what will happen — there is no chance of these gangsters giving anything up without a bitter, dirty struggle. People need to understand this and be ready. | |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:50 - Oct 12 with 1263 views | factual_blue |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:28 - Oct 12 by Coastalblue |
It's like watching an episode of The Office, except we're wondering which country will get shut down first.
Got to say though, that's an uninspiring list to vote for! |
Is trussy going to emerge from Number Ten in an ostrich costume?
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:55 - Oct 12 with 1238 views | XYZ |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:41 - Oct 12 by HARRY10 |
Which thanks to electral calculas would give Lab a 46 seat overall majority
Lab 348
Con 172
Lib 52
what is noticeable is that voters have switched directly to Labour with the Libdems dropping three points
is this an indication of the next GE results - no
is it an indication of voters dislike of Truss and her brexit policies - yes, overwhelmingly so
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html |
That's just the "Blue wall" seats in that poll, Harry.
Sinn Fein may have more seats than the tories based on this poll. | | | |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:04 - Oct 12 with 1210 views | HARRY10 |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:55 - Oct 12 by XYZ |
That's just the "Blue wall" seats in that poll, Harry.
Sinn Fein may have more seats than the tories based on this poll. |
yes, I am aware
what does look certain is that Labour will form the next government. Allowing Truss to continue will merely extend that time.
We have yet to see the effects on mortgages. Homeless, Nurses and others struggle etc will bring on sympathy. And extra few hundred a week paying the mortgage will bring action.
Johnson was elected through blindingly obvious lies, which took somewhile to see. Truss has had an immediate effect, as she tries to introduce the real brexit stuff. | | | |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:14 - Oct 12 with 1189 views | keighleyblue |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:25 - Oct 12 by Dubtractor |
In all seriousness, they have MASSIVELY misjudged this haven't they?
They have piled in with a load of policies that no one was asking for, purely because IEA (and other think tanks) ideology states they are good, and because the 'reduce tax' soundbite won some favour with the very small tory membership. |
erm no. There are a LOT of bad actors behind the scenes who are driving this nightmare. Truss, Kwarteng are just signing these policies off. |  | | |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:16 - Oct 12 with 1186 views | Basuco |
It looks like Liz Truss is as popular with Conservative voters as Jeremy Corbyn was to Labour voters. |  | | |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:20 - Oct 12 with 1178 views | tractordownsouth |
The author of this map has said he got Wimbledon and West Dorset the wrong way round, but some interesting results nonetheless.
Both of the Cornish seats highlighted are shoo-ins for Tory losses. St Ives will go back to the Lib Dems - our popular former MP has announced his intention to stand again and only has to reverse a 4K majority. It’s a fascinating seat because if you take St Ives itself out of it, it’s a working-class constituency with Penzance and Helston being its largest settlements. It also voted leave and has a sizeable fishing and agriculture industry so it’s the sort of place where the Tories should be miles ahead and the Lib Dems should have massively fallen behind Labour as the main opposition candidate party and probably would have done if not for the candidate. As a party they seem to have really struggled in these types of areas, while solidifying their grip on Bath, Oxford, Twickenham.
Truro and Falmouth actually saw the Labour vote go up last time, although that was largely a continuation of the Lib Dem vote being eaten into since 2010. The arch-Corbynite candidate has been replaced by a well-known councillor and as a remain-voting middle-class area with an expanding university, it’s the type of place the Tories have gone backwards in post-2015.
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:26 - Oct 12 with 1150 views | EastTownBlue |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:20 - Oct 12 by tractordownsouth |
The author of this map has said he got Wimbledon and West Dorset the wrong way round, but some interesting results nonetheless.
Both of the Cornish seats highlighted are shoo-ins for Tory losses. St Ives will go back to the Lib Dems - our popular former MP has announced his intention to stand again and only has to reverse a 4K majority. It’s a fascinating seat because if you take St Ives itself out of it, it’s a working-class constituency with Penzance and Helston being its largest settlements. It also voted leave and has a sizeable fishing and agriculture industry so it’s the sort of place where the Tories should be miles ahead and the Lib Dems should have massively fallen behind Labour as the main opposition candidate party and probably would have done if not for the candidate. As a party they seem to have really struggled in these types of areas, while solidifying their grip on Bath, Oxford, Twickenham.
Truro and Falmouth actually saw the Labour vote go up last time, although that was largely a continuation of the Lib Dem vote being eaten into since 2010. The arch-Corbynite candidate has been replaced by a well-known councillor and as a remain-voting middle-class area with an expanding university, it’s the type of place the Tories have gone backwards in post-2015.
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Oh dear that has George Eustice losing his seat. | | | |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:31 - Oct 12 with 1114 views | tractordownsouth |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:44 - Oct 12 by Dubtractor |
Yep.
Johnson was awful, but he managed to do enough to appeal both to traditional tory voters AND the likes of the red wall voters, even if there was ultimately not much substance to it.
Truss appeals to such a small subset of the population, and is ultimately pretty hapless (which was entirely obvious for years before she became leader), so is basically a recipe for electoral disaster. |
Johnson saw huge swings against the Tories in the blue wall, even before the by-elections. Seats like Esher & Walton (Raab’s seat), South Cambridgeshire and Hitchin & Harpenden went from safe seats to marginals even while the Tories cleaned up nationally.
Without meaning to bring Corbyn into the conversation, I think he was instrumental in shoring up the Tory-voting coalition at both ends*. The economic radicalism helped to dissaude middle-class remain-inclined Tories from backing the Lib Dems with the “coalition of chaos” message, which is something the candidate who ran against Raab has since commented on. Whereas in the North and Midlands, the issues with Brexit and Corbyn’s patriotism damaged the Labour Party. And then in a select few marginals with high Jewish populations (Barnet, Hendon, Bury South) it’s fair to assume that the anti-semitism issues cost Labour.
As recently as 2021, the Brexit identities in voting were very strong and the trends in the local elections showed that. However, since then the Tories seem to be struggling to hold together either type of voter, perhaps best illustrated by losing Wakefield and Tiverton on the same day in June.
*Apologies for the stereotype in voter profiles, but i think it explains why the Tories could pull together a coalition containing both Esher and Blyth. | |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:34 - Oct 12 with 1106 views | tractordownsouth |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:26 - Oct 12 by EastTownBlue |
Oh dear that has George Eustice losing his seat. |
Sadly not - his is the one which hasn’t been polled. He’s sitting on a 9k majority which normally would be insurmountable in one heave but given the state of the polls at the moment, and the fact he only won by 1k in 2017, he certainly has a fight on his hands.
I think the new boundaries make his majority smaller though by moving some of the Tory vote into Truro and Falmouth, so they could both go to Labour. | |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:36 - Oct 12 with 1099 views | BlueBadger |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:16 - Oct 12 by Basuco |
It looks like Liz Truss is as popular with Conservative voters as Jeremy Corbyn was to Labour voters. |
Why would you compare a populist extremist loon with outdated and discredited ideas, iffy backers and no credibility with the wider population to..... [Post edited 13 Oct 2022 0:35]
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:42 - Oct 12 with 1076 views | BlueBadger |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:45 - Oct 12 by SomethingBlue |
This is absolutely what will happen — there is no chance of these gangsters giving anything up without a bitter, dirty struggle. People need to understand this and be ready. |
Hope for their sake that Putin has deep pockets and good solicitors. [Post edited 12 Oct 2022 19:55]
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 18:49 - Oct 12 with 1038 views | BlueBadger |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:30 - Oct 12 by PrrrromotionGiven |
I can't believe how, but Truss & co. seem to have been genuinely under the impression that the people who voted in that membership vote are representative of the UK as a whole... |
Amongst these people's many many many character flaws, a lack of empathy ranks highly. They simply can't imagine people thinking or acting differently to them. | |
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| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 19:12 - Oct 12 with 970 views | Mullet |
| At least the tory vote is holding up in the blue wall seats.. on 17:30 - Oct 12 by PrrrromotionGiven |
I can't believe how, but Truss & co. seem to have been genuinely under the impression that the people who voted in that membership vote are representative of the UK as a whole... |
They don't see anyone outside of their membership, that's the problem. They're all so venal and misshapen that they have no concept of "no", and not in the sense that has lead to so many of their MPs being arrested for sexual offences either.
To think so many of them won't go to jail for their part in the political events since 2019 if not beyond, is sickening. |  |
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