| Lockdown exit strategy 12:39 - Apr 15 with 3968 views | Guthrum |
How can the Government (or anyone else) set out a lockdown exit strategy when we can't yet say where we are in the progress of C-19 in the UK, when we have little (non-Chinese) info on the effects of doing so? We have no timeline and no route map yet to base anything on. |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:40 - Apr 15 with 2102 views | sparks |
Couldnt agree more. The pressure and snide accusations of lacking a plan are ridiculous at this point. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:46 - Apr 15 with 2074 views | StokieBlue |
Exactly what I thought, seems a strange thing for Starmer to immediately be pushing.
SB |  | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:49 - Apr 15 with 2058 views | WD19 |
Its an easy thing to shout for because one will be needed at some stage. As which point it is easy to cry "See, look, I said we needed one and now they agree".
That said, I am sure one is already pretty far advanced. It will include 'acceptable levels of death' and cannot really be rolled out until the public is psychologically ready to accept that the impact (financially and from a public health standpoint) of not getting the economy moving is worse than just cracking on. |  | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:50 - Apr 15 with 2050 views | portmanking |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:46 - Apr 15 by StokieBlue |
Exactly what I thought, seems a strange thing for Starmer to immediately be pushing.
SB |
Totally agree.
I find it infuriating that just days after Starmer insisted he wouldn't be partisan in this moment of national crisis, he's using our 'lack' of an exit strategy as a stick to beat the government with.
There's holding the government to account and there's wanting the moon on a stick. This crisis is bringing out the latter in too many people. |  | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:52 - Apr 15 with 2029 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:46 - Apr 15 by StokieBlue |
Exactly what I thought, seems a strange thing for Starmer to immediately be pushing.
SB |
He wants an input. |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:54 - Apr 15 with 2007 views | lowhouseblue |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:46 - Apr 15 by StokieBlue |
Exactly what I thought, seems a strange thing for Starmer to immediately be pushing.
SB |
starmer's point which i do have some sympathy with is that there should be re-assurance that appropriate planning for a range of exit scenarios is already taking place. what we don't want in 4 weeks time is to be told that the exit strategy involves a tracking app and they are going to start developing it now but it will take 4 weeks. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:55 - Apr 15 with 2001 views | Darth_Koont |
Although there's a real risk with our government that it will be a strategy that suits the government and the Conservative party more than the country as a whole.
So think they need to be pushed every step of the way. |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:57 - Apr 15 with 1983 views | Andrew4445 |
It's possible to have a strategy without needing to assign a timeline.
They could indicate what markers they looking for in infection rates, admission to hospital, ICU care requirements before they will progress to relaxing any conditions.
They could then indiciate their current prefered order of relaxation and what it might look like. I assume they won't just open the doors and go for a free-for-all but will instead stage it to sectors, regions, age ranges etc.
It does make sense for the government to show they are thinking about these things and to make that information available to a wider audience for it to be tested. One of the initial issues with their herd immunity strategy is it was based ona single unpublished report that had a significant calcultion erro in it. If they had published it earlier it would have been picked up during the process of peer review and consideration and, quite probably, thousands of people who are currently dead wouldn't be.
Making that information available will also allow businesses to start to plan for where they sit in the order and to better understand when they might call people back off furlow.
Making the infromation available is a good thing, the issues to date seem to have arisen due to a lack of seriousness and an unwilligness of the part of government to be examined and tested. | | | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:58 - Apr 15 with 1964 views | Freddies_Ears |
No examples to follow? Many other European countries have already provided their plan to emerge from lockdown. Some have even been able to make a start. All have made it clear that plans are subject to change. Examples include Austria, Spain and France. In each case, it is a very, very gradual easing of restrictions. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:59 - Apr 15 with 1948 views | sparks |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:57 - Apr 15 by Andrew4445 |
It's possible to have a strategy without needing to assign a timeline.
They could indicate what markers they looking for in infection rates, admission to hospital, ICU care requirements before they will progress to relaxing any conditions.
They could then indiciate their current prefered order of relaxation and what it might look like. I assume they won't just open the doors and go for a free-for-all but will instead stage it to sectors, regions, age ranges etc.
It does make sense for the government to show they are thinking about these things and to make that information available to a wider audience for it to be tested. One of the initial issues with their herd immunity strategy is it was based ona single unpublished report that had a significant calcultion erro in it. If they had published it earlier it would have been picked up during the process of peer review and consideration and, quite probably, thousands of people who are currently dead wouldn't be.
Making that information available will also allow businesses to start to plan for where they sit in the order and to better understand when they might call people back off furlow.
Making the infromation available is a good thing, the issues to date seem to have arisen due to a lack of seriousness and an unwilligness of the part of government to be examined and tested. |
Little sense in planning anything until they know where we are, how resources are holding up, vaccine timelines, etc etc etc. You can have broad general ideas- but the specifics have to fit the situation. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:59 - Apr 15 with 1946 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:58 - Apr 15 by Freddies_Ears |
No examples to follow? Many other European countries have already provided their plan to emerge from lockdown. Some have even been able to make a start. All have made it clear that plans are subject to change. Examples include Austria, Spain and France. In each case, it is a very, very gradual easing of restrictions. |
None of them have been tested yet (or are only just starting, in the case of Austria). | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:01 - Apr 15 with 1922 views | Darth_Koont |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:59 - Apr 15 by sparks |
Little sense in planning anything until they know where we are, how resources are holding up, vaccine timelines, etc etc etc. You can have broad general ideas- but the specifics have to fit the situation. |
Those are tactics. The strategy can be broad stroke — and with all the variables and unknowns will need to be so anyway. | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:03 - Apr 15 with 1903 views | itfcjoe |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:59 - Apr 15 by sparks |
Little sense in planning anything until they know where we are, how resources are holding up, vaccine timelines, etc etc etc. You can have broad general ideas- but the specifics have to fit the situation. |
"Little sense in planning anything until they know where we are"
Come on, that is utter rubbish - do you honestly think that inside the Government people aren't currently working on this? |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:04 - Apr 15 with 1885 views | Andrew4445 |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:59 - Apr 15 by sparks |
Little sense in planning anything until they know where we are, how resources are holding up, vaccine timelines, etc etc etc. You can have broad general ideas- but the specifics have to fit the situation. |
But that is a timeline issue not a strategy issue. They must know what level of infection / hospital capacity they need to get to before they will start loosening conditions. We don't know when they will be met but we must know what we want to see.
What happens once you hit those can be planned for and must be being planned for at the moment and tht process can then be made public.
This is another area where the woeful lack of testing is going to bite us, countries with a much better picture will be able to adapt their strategy to suit regions and evens towns, we just do not have that level of detail and so will end up with a more broad brush approach. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:06 - Apr 15 with 1873 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:57 - Apr 15 by Andrew4445 |
It's possible to have a strategy without needing to assign a timeline.
They could indicate what markers they looking for in infection rates, admission to hospital, ICU care requirements before they will progress to relaxing any conditions.
They could then indiciate their current prefered order of relaxation and what it might look like. I assume they won't just open the doors and go for a free-for-all but will instead stage it to sectors, regions, age ranges etc.
It does make sense for the government to show they are thinking about these things and to make that information available to a wider audience for it to be tested. One of the initial issues with their herd immunity strategy is it was based ona single unpublished report that had a significant calcultion erro in it. If they had published it earlier it would have been picked up during the process of peer review and consideration and, quite probably, thousands of people who are currently dead wouldn't be.
Making that information available will also allow businesses to start to plan for where they sit in the order and to better understand when they might call people back off furlow.
Making the infromation available is a good thing, the issues to date seem to have arisen due to a lack of seriousness and an unwilligness of the part of government to be examined and tested. |
One problem with too much public discussion of exit strategies is that it will make people who are already chafing under the restrictions even more impatient. Whereas, in reality, we are probably weeks away from any lifting of restrictions.
How do we know what markers to look for? There's some idea of what other countries think, but we don't know if they're right. We don't know if the UK has reached the peak of our outbreak, whether things are stabilising, of if there's still some way to go.
Information is only useful if it's good information. If it's nothing more than a rough guess and likely to provoke unrest, then what use is it? | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:09 - Apr 15 with 1843 views | gordon |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:03 - Apr 15 by itfcjoe |
"Little sense in planning anything until they know where we are"
Come on, that is utter rubbish - do you honestly think that inside the Government people aren't currently working on this? |
They have to communicate a broad strategy, what the assumptions are, best case and worst case scenarios, what's involved, and how further lockdowns would be manaaged in the future.
The reason we're not being told what the plan is is because it will obviously be dependent on lots of PPE supplies for the wider communty (teachers, shop workers, cafes etc.) and the gov being able to deliver a mass testing program. Both things that the government has failed on so far - so if they announce a plan, it will then be clear (after a couple more weeks) that we are actually waiting for the government to get things together. |  | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:10 - Apr 15 with 1831 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:03 - Apr 15 by itfcjoe |
"Little sense in planning anything until they know where we are"
Come on, that is utter rubbish - do you honestly think that inside the Government people aren't currently working on this? |
Yes, but there are probably lots of different approaches and contingencies being looked at, rather than one definite plan. If they are all presented to the public, it just appears muddled, sows confusion and helps nobody.
Not to mention providing ammunition for people who are demanding to know exactly what the route-map is (without themselves having to draft or implement it). | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:11 - Apr 15 with 1826 views | gordon |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:06 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
One problem with too much public discussion of exit strategies is that it will make people who are already chafing under the restrictions even more impatient. Whereas, in reality, we are probably weeks away from any lifting of restrictions.
How do we know what markers to look for? There's some idea of what other countries think, but we don't know if they're right. We don't know if the UK has reached the peak of our outbreak, whether things are stabilising, of if there's still some way to go.
Information is only useful if it's good information. If it's nothing more than a rough guess and likely to provoke unrest, then what use is it? |
I don't follow really - it isn't about a date, it's about broadly how we would do it - this is really important for lots of people to know, for making longer-term plans around businesses, work, travel etc. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:13 - Apr 15 with 1812 views | Andrew4445 |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:06 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
One problem with too much public discussion of exit strategies is that it will make people who are already chafing under the restrictions even more impatient. Whereas, in reality, we are probably weeks away from any lifting of restrictions.
How do we know what markers to look for? There's some idea of what other countries think, but we don't know if they're right. We don't know if the UK has reached the peak of our outbreak, whether things are stabilising, of if there's still some way to go.
Information is only useful if it's good information. If it's nothing more than a rough guess and likely to provoke unrest, then what use is it? |
But public discussion is just noicse, in terms of making policy expert discussion is helpful and prevents errors. That is why they peer review and why no study is taken seriously academically until it has been peer reviewed.
The Government will have models for what levels of infection rate v hospital capacity are sustainable. Virologists and disease control is based on this calcualtion so it will be constantly monitored and amended in light of evolving understanding of the virus and how it is transmitted.
Information from experts is essential to making good policy - when I worked in government making policy there was a drive to shift to 'evidence based policy making' from the political 'policy based evidence making'. What people assume to be the case are not, more often than not, not supported by the facts and the numbers give us the route to those facts and the best outcomes.
Whether or not the public are happy is a bit of an irrelivence, whether or not the governemnt has a robustly tested and accurate model is, and that only comes about through peer review and expert testing. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:15 - Apr 15 with 1800 views | monytowbray |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:40 - Apr 15 by sparks |
Couldnt agree more. The pressure and snide accusations of lacking a plan are ridiculous at this point. |
I think what bothers me more is we didn’t even have a plan for locking down because “herd immunity” and protecting the economy, let alone an exit strategy. Although many countries have started outlining their own. From the way the virus has spread you can guess it will be gradual with social distancing in place and you can forget about holidays or large events this year at the earliest.
It’s ironic for us and the USA that in being more bothered about the short term of the economy we’ve done more long term damage. |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:15 - Apr 15 with 1802 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:09 - Apr 15 by gordon |
They have to communicate a broad strategy, what the assumptions are, best case and worst case scenarios, what's involved, and how further lockdowns would be manaaged in the future.
The reason we're not being told what the plan is is because it will obviously be dependent on lots of PPE supplies for the wider communty (teachers, shop workers, cafes etc.) and the gov being able to deliver a mass testing program. Both things that the government has failed on so far - so if they announce a plan, it will then be clear (after a couple more weeks) that we are actually waiting for the government to get things together. |
Part of the reason the testing plan has failed is that a quick-but-accurate test has not been developed yet, neither has one which successfully detects whether someone has had the disease in the past. Until those things exist and are proven to be reliable, we don't have the tools to go down that path.
Same with treatments and vaccines. There's a lot of work going on, some of it very promising. But we're not that close to having effective, mass-produced products yet. Indeed, all current lines of research may prove fuitless (or have too many bad side-effects).
At that point, all plans are just scrap paper. | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:19 - Apr 15 with 1776 views | lowhouseblue |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:15 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
Part of the reason the testing plan has failed is that a quick-but-accurate test has not been developed yet, neither has one which successfully detects whether someone has had the disease in the past. Until those things exist and are proven to be reliable, we don't have the tools to go down that path.
Same with treatments and vaccines. There's a lot of work going on, some of it very promising. But we're not that close to having effective, mass-produced products yet. Indeed, all current lines of research may prove fuitless (or have too many bad side-effects).
At that point, all plans are just scrap paper. |
was it ever true / is it still true that the test they were initially using had a 30% false negative rate? or was that just a rumour? | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:19 - Apr 15 with 1774 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:11 - Apr 15 by gordon |
I don't follow really - it isn't about a date, it's about broadly how we would do it - this is really important for lots of people to know, for making longer-term plans around businesses, work, travel etc. |
But, broadly, how do you go about unwinding a social distancing lockdown when you do not yet have a treatment or vaccine for the disease, nor do you have sufficient supplies of protective equipment for the general public? Is it even possible to remove the lockdown without provoking another outbreak?
How can people make plans without a timeline? | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:20 - Apr 15 with 1769 views | gordon |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:15 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
Part of the reason the testing plan has failed is that a quick-but-accurate test has not been developed yet, neither has one which successfully detects whether someone has had the disease in the past. Until those things exist and are proven to be reliable, we don't have the tools to go down that path.
Same with treatments and vaccines. There's a lot of work going on, some of it very promising. But we're not that close to having effective, mass-produced products yet. Indeed, all current lines of research may prove fuitless (or have too many bad side-effects).
At that point, all plans are just scrap paper. |
I don't thin anyone's asking them to summarise the science, I want them to summarise how we will exit lockdown. It isn't dependent on the progress of these much more longer-term tools. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:22 - Apr 15 with 1750 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:13 - Apr 15 by Andrew4445 |
But public discussion is just noicse, in terms of making policy expert discussion is helpful and prevents errors. That is why they peer review and why no study is taken seriously academically until it has been peer reviewed.
The Government will have models for what levels of infection rate v hospital capacity are sustainable. Virologists and disease control is based on this calcualtion so it will be constantly monitored and amended in light of evolving understanding of the virus and how it is transmitted.
Information from experts is essential to making good policy - when I worked in government making policy there was a drive to shift to 'evidence based policy making' from the political 'policy based evidence making'. What people assume to be the case are not, more often than not, not supported by the facts and the numbers give us the route to those facts and the best outcomes.
Whether or not the public are happy is a bit of an irrelivence, whether or not the governemnt has a robustly tested and accurate model is, and that only comes about through peer review and expert testing. |
Agreed. But that will be going on behind closed doors (subject to the regrettable tendencies you refer to in your third paragraph*), not in the public domain as some journalists and now Starmer are demanding.
* I have heard similar things from friends in the Civil Service | |
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