| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough 13:43 - Nov 26 with 3468 views | StokieBlue |
Certainly not a criticism of the government here, they moved as quickly as they could have but unfortunately the detection of new variants is always going to be laggy.
Cases in Israel from Malawi (not on the red list).
Cases in Belgium from Egypt (via Turkey) (not on the red list and no contact with red list countries).
Seems the cases are coming from routes well outside the defined source countries which I guess is to be expected.
SB |  | | |  |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:55 - Nov 26 with 1827 views | Ryorry |
Simon Calder was on R5l this morning speaking from a UK airport & saying he'd seen 3 planes that had come directly from SA land, with all the passengers on board allowed to disperse over the UK without any quarantining, before the ban then kicked in. |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:57 - Nov 26 with 1815 views | Ely_Blue |
I don’t think you are going to stop it getting in, however I think we can reduce it spreading so quickly.
There are loopholes that need closing, for example listening to the cretin that is Jeremy Vine today he had a caller who was talking about her daughter who had just gone on honeymoon to SA and had only arrived 2 days ago, to avoid quarantine on return she had managed to find a flight out to Cairo at the weekend and back into the uk that way |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:57 - Nov 26 with 1796 views | footers |
Yes, but I don't want to wear a mask or something. I dunno. |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:59 - Nov 26 with 1781 views | Ryorry |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:57 - Nov 26 by Ely_Blue |
I don’t think you are going to stop it getting in, however I think we can reduce it spreading so quickly.
There are loopholes that need closing, for example listening to the cretin that is Jeremy Vine today he had a caller who was talking about her daughter who had just gone on honeymoon to SA and had only arrived 2 days ago, to avoid quarantine on return she had managed to find a flight out to Cairo at the weekend and back into the uk that way |
Some people are just criminally irresponsible. So depressing. | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:01 - Nov 26 with 1770 views | Ely_Blue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:59 - Nov 26 by Ryorry |
Some people are just criminally irresponsible. So depressing. |
I know, same thing when people were flooding in from India even when the direct flights were banned | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:02 - Nov 26 with 1753 views | factual_blue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:57 - Nov 26 by footers |
Yes, but I don't want to wear a mask or something. I dunno. |
How many times have you been to Peppa Pig World? |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:04 - Nov 26 with 1731 views | footers |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:02 - Nov 26 by factual_blue |
How many times have you been to Peppa Pig World? |
I prefer Lowestoft's Sparrow's Nest Park, complete with suicide bridge. | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:09 - Nov 26 with 1698 views | BlueBadger |
Yes, but I have this article from An Allegedly Respectable Sciencist and a youtube video which I have cherry picked and misrepresented to show you all that getting jabbed is BAD. [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 14:14]
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:12 - Nov 26 with 1669 views | unstableblue |
I'm not seeing any research or scientific insight into this.
But surely if the population is immunised, transmission is reduced, symptoms are reduced, and hence the chances of mutation.
If this correlation is very clear it just makes one even angrier with anti-vaxxers, and critically (as Gordon Brown has been campaigning) the wealthier western nations need to start sending vaccines abroad, and letting them go out of date is criminal.
Apologies - I know this sounds a stupid question, but I am have been researching, and there is little narrative on this, as another reason to get vaccinated. [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 14:13]
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:12 - Nov 26 with 1656 views | StokieBlue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:09 - Nov 26 by BlueBadger |
Yes, but I have this article from An Allegedly Respectable Sciencist and a youtube video which I have cherry picked and misrepresented to show you all that getting jabbed is BAD. [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 14:14]
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I'm not sure this is particularly helpful from the WHO:
“At this point, implementing travel measures is being cautioned against,” Lindmeier told a UN briefing in Geneva. “The WHO recommends that countries continue to apply a risk-based and scientific approach when implementing travel measures.”
"It would take several weeks to determine the variant’s transmissibility and the effectiveness of vaccines and therapeutics against it"
Seems utterly ridiculous to say countries should wait weeks to determine the exact science behind the variant and then use that to decide whether to close borders. Horse and bolted spring to mind.
SB | | | |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:15 - Nov 26 with 1619 views | pointofblue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:12 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
I'm not sure this is particularly helpful from the WHO:
“At this point, implementing travel measures is being cautioned against,” Lindmeier told a UN briefing in Geneva. “The WHO recommends that countries continue to apply a risk-based and scientific approach when implementing travel measures.”
"It would take several weeks to determine the variant’s transmissibility and the effectiveness of vaccines and therapeutics against it"
Seems utterly ridiculous to say countries should wait weeks to determine the exact science behind the variant and then use that to decide whether to close borders. Horse and bolted spring to mind.
SB |
I agree - surely the WHO should be promoting a more cautious approach? Maybe they fear countries won’t come forward with concerning data if the response is to recommend travel bans. |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:15 - Nov 26 with 1614 views | homer_123 |
Sadly no surprises! |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:16 - Nov 26 with 1610 views | BlueBadger |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:12 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
I'm not sure this is particularly helpful from the WHO:
“At this point, implementing travel measures is being cautioned against,” Lindmeier told a UN briefing in Geneva. “The WHO recommends that countries continue to apply a risk-based and scientific approach when implementing travel measures.”
"It would take several weeks to determine the variant’s transmissibility and the effectiveness of vaccines and therapeutics against it"
Seems utterly ridiculous to say countries should wait weeks to determine the exact science behind the variant and then use that to decide whether to close borders. Horse and bolted spring to mind.
SB |
Are they now taking policy advice from the UK government? | |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:17 - Nov 26 with 1608 views | StokieBlue |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:12 - Nov 26 by unstableblue |
I'm not seeing any research or scientific insight into this.
But surely if the population is immunised, transmission is reduced, symptoms are reduced, and hence the chances of mutation.
If this correlation is very clear it just makes one even angrier with anti-vaxxers, and critically (as Gordon Brown has been campaigning) the wealthier western nations need to start sending vaccines abroad, and letting them go out of date is criminal.
Apologies - I know this sounds a stupid question, but I am have been researching, and there is little narrative on this, as another reason to get vaccinated. [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 14:13]
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This is speculation but a theory being put forward is that this variant evolved in a person who had a weakened immune system, no vaccination and probably untreated HIV.
It would mean that the virus could continually optimise through random changes without having to fight off the immune system too much. There are two genetic changes which aren't usually seen together because they might not be stable but perhaps inside this patient the virus had long enough to find a combination of mutations where they are stable.
“It is difficult to know what to make of the carriage of both P681H and N679K. It is a combination we see only exceptionally rarely. I suspect it is generally not ‘stable’, but it might be so, in combination with other mutations/deletions,”
- Francois Balloux, UCL Genetics Institute.
SB | | | |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:19 - Nov 26 with 1574 views | unstableblue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:09 - Nov 26 by BlueBadger |
Yes, but I have this article from An Allegedly Respectable Sciencist and a youtube video which I have cherry picked and misrepresented to show you all that getting jabbed is BAD. [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 14:14]
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I have several former friends (and I mean former now) who are very well educated, and have gone down the rabbit hole into quite extreme 'Covid hoax' (or overstated risk) and anti-vaccination, and vaccine risk agendas
The issue is social media quite clearly... I am supporting a documentary on this... and if you take a couple of steps in, from the channels that you may receive your 'normal' information from, it is frightening how quickly you get to plausible 'experts' and rabid opinions
What I am struggling with is how to intelligent people, can not place greater value in peer review research and government agencies, and how they fail to then look into the efficacy of these false narratives and prophets.
Quick question BB, as I am collecting conspiracy and alarmism examples - what was the summary of the false narrative from the deleted thread yesterday that I missed (without raking it up again of course, with Phil in mind) | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:19 - Nov 26 with 1571 views | pointofblue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:16 - Nov 26 by BlueBadger |
Are they now taking policy advice from the UK government? |
A worrying development when the U.K. government is more pro-active than the WHO. | |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:21 - Nov 26 with 1568 views | Guthrum |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:12 - Nov 26 by unstableblue |
I'm not seeing any research or scientific insight into this.
But surely if the population is immunised, transmission is reduced, symptoms are reduced, and hence the chances of mutation.
If this correlation is very clear it just makes one even angrier with anti-vaxxers, and critically (as Gordon Brown has been campaigning) the wealthier western nations need to start sending vaccines abroad, and letting them go out of date is criminal.
Apologies - I know this sounds a stupid question, but I am have been researching, and there is little narrative on this, as another reason to get vaccinated. [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 14:13]
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The smaller the pool of infected people and the harder it is for the virus to spread to others, mathematically there will be fewer mutations (copying errors in the RNA chain). Less copying, fewer chances of an error resulting in changes which make the virus more dangerous. Simple as that.
Vaccination reduces the chances of catching the disease, the severity of symptoms and the rate at which it's passed on. |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:24 - Nov 26 with 1552 views | BlueBadger |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:19 - Nov 26 by unstableblue |
I have several former friends (and I mean former now) who are very well educated, and have gone down the rabbit hole into quite extreme 'Covid hoax' (or overstated risk) and anti-vaccination, and vaccine risk agendas
The issue is social media quite clearly... I am supporting a documentary on this... and if you take a couple of steps in, from the channels that you may receive your 'normal' information from, it is frightening how quickly you get to plausible 'experts' and rabid opinions
What I am struggling with is how to intelligent people, can not place greater value in peer review research and government agencies, and how they fail to then look into the efficacy of these false narratives and prophets.
Quick question BB, as I am collecting conspiracy and alarmism examples - what was the summary of the false narrative from the deleted thread yesterday that I missed (without raking it up again of course, with Phil in mind) |
'Japan have eliminated covid because it has mutated itself out of existence'.
Spoiler alert : Japan have low covid rates because they have an impressively high vaccination rate and a strong adherence to masking and social distancing still. | |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:26 - Nov 26 with 1531 views | unstableblue |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:17 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
This is speculation but a theory being put forward is that this variant evolved in a person who had a weakened immune system, no vaccination and probably untreated HIV.
It would mean that the virus could continually optimise through random changes without having to fight off the immune system too much. There are two genetic changes which aren't usually seen together because they might not be stable but perhaps inside this patient the virus had long enough to find a combination of mutations where they are stable.
“It is difficult to know what to make of the carriage of both P681H and N679K. It is a combination we see only exceptionally rarely. I suspect it is generally not ‘stable’, but it might be so, in combination with other mutations/deletions,”
- Francois Balloux, UCL Genetics Institute.
SB |
What I have found most surprising about the Covid pandemic has been the lack of impetus globally - in government, media - to prepare for and negate a serious mutation of CV19 to a form that is more virulent (and transmissible)
And in parallel a huge global effort to remove risks and scenarios that would lead to another virus leading that can lead to a pandemic - for example stopping the critical factors (societal, economic, geographic) causing African population to rely more on bush meat for protein (linked to international fishing on the west coast of Africa for example) or a stringent change in wet markets in ALL of Asia.
https://theconversation.com/bushmeat-could-cause-the-next-global-pandemic-136657 | |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:29 - Nov 26 with 1496 views | hype313 |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:17 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
This is speculation but a theory being put forward is that this variant evolved in a person who had a weakened immune system, no vaccination and probably untreated HIV.
It would mean that the virus could continually optimise through random changes without having to fight off the immune system too much. There are two genetic changes which aren't usually seen together because they might not be stable but perhaps inside this patient the virus had long enough to find a combination of mutations where they are stable.
“It is difficult to know what to make of the carriage of both P681H and N679K. It is a combination we see only exceptionally rarely. I suspect it is generally not ‘stable’, but it might be so, in combination with other mutations/deletions,”
- Francois Balloux, UCL Genetics Institute.
SB |
Read earlier that the transmission rate is far quicker than the Delta variant, the question will be how serious the symptoms could be, if worse, and vaccine resistant then batten down the hatches as we will be facing another strict lockdown.
Lets hope that it will just be more virulent, rather than dangerous. |  |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:31 - Nov 26 with 1481 views | Guthrum |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:26 - Nov 26 by unstableblue |
What I have found most surprising about the Covid pandemic has been the lack of impetus globally - in government, media - to prepare for and negate a serious mutation of CV19 to a form that is more virulent (and transmissible)
And in parallel a huge global effort to remove risks and scenarios that would lead to another virus leading that can lead to a pandemic - for example stopping the critical factors (societal, economic, geographic) causing African population to rely more on bush meat for protein (linked to international fishing on the west coast of Africa for example) or a stringent change in wet markets in ALL of Asia.
https://theconversation.com/bushmeat-could-cause-the-next-global-pandemic-136657 |
All of these things cost money and nobody wants to pay for it (see also: Climate Change). The poor countries can't afford it and the rich ones won't unless it has a direct and immediate benefit for them. | |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:36 - Nov 26 with 1444 views | StokieBlue |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:29 - Nov 26 by hype313 |
Read earlier that the transmission rate is far quicker than the Delta variant, the question will be how serious the symptoms could be, if worse, and vaccine resistant then batten down the hatches as we will be facing another strict lockdown.
Lets hope that it will just be more virulent, rather than dangerous. |
Indeed, fingers crossed it's just more transmissible and the vaccines still work. The R in the Johannesburg region is >2 at the moment even with mask wearing etc.
The real worry is that the spike protein doesn't look enough like the original C19 spike protein for the immune system to recognise it and know what to do. I think that's what has mainly got the scientists spooked.
More easily transmissible is bad but not as bad as the above.
We simply won't know for a while.
SB | | | |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:45 - Nov 26 with 1380 views | homer_123 |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:36 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
Indeed, fingers crossed it's just more transmissible and the vaccines still work. The R in the Johannesburg region is >2 at the moment even with mask wearing etc.
The real worry is that the spike protein doesn't look enough like the original C19 spike protein for the immune system to recognise it and know what to do. I think that's what has mainly got the scientists spooked.
More easily transmissible is bad but not as bad as the above.
We simply won't know for a while.
SB |
Without wanting to underplay this. Mutations are expected and normal - so in this regard what we are seeing is to be expected. In addition, there was also a relatively high probability that eventually it would mutate to a point where 'current' vaccines aren't effective.
As you say, there are many unknowns with this one and it does appear to be a bit of a bad mix, it's rare but not completely unseen.
I can't quite get my head around WHO suggesting that travel restrictions should be avoided - just can't square that - unless I'm missing something here?
Hopefully the current vaccines can be tweaked/ amended to fight this variant as well. | |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:48 - Nov 26 with 1359 views | homer_123 |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:26 - Nov 26 by unstableblue |
What I have found most surprising about the Covid pandemic has been the lack of impetus globally - in government, media - to prepare for and negate a serious mutation of CV19 to a form that is more virulent (and transmissible)
And in parallel a huge global effort to remove risks and scenarios that would lead to another virus leading that can lead to a pandemic - for example stopping the critical factors (societal, economic, geographic) causing African population to rely more on bush meat for protein (linked to international fishing on the west coast of Africa for example) or a stringent change in wet markets in ALL of Asia.
https://theconversation.com/bushmeat-could-cause-the-next-global-pandemic-136657 |
I'm not - it's almost impossible to get collective global agreement on anything. | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:49 - Nov 26 with 1349 views | homer_123 |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:24 - Nov 26 by BlueBadger |
'Japan have eliminated covid because it has mutated itself out of existence'.
Spoiler alert : Japan have low covid rates because they have an impressively high vaccination rate and a strong adherence to masking and social distancing still. |
But are you sure about that Badge? | |
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