| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough 13:43 - Nov 26 with 3085 views | StokieBlue |
Certainly not a criticism of the government here, they moved as quickly as they could have but unfortunately the detection of new variants is always going to be laggy.
Cases in Israel from Malawi (not on the red list).
Cases in Belgium from Egypt (via Turkey) (not on the red list and no contact with red list countries).
Seems the cases are coming from routes well outside the defined source countries which I guess is to be expected.
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:53 - Nov 26 with 1034 views | StokieBlue |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:45 - Nov 26 by homer_123 |
Without wanting to underplay this. Mutations are expected and normal - so in this regard what we are seeing is to be expected. In addition, there was also a relatively high probability that eventually it would mutate to a point where 'current' vaccines aren't effective.
As you say, there are many unknowns with this one and it does appear to be a bit of a bad mix, it's rare but not completely unseen.
I can't quite get my head around WHO suggesting that travel restrictions should be avoided - just can't square that - unless I'm missing something here?
Hopefully the current vaccines can be tweaked/ amended to fight this variant as well. |
Totally agree that mutations are expected and normal. However without wanting to overplay this variant (which is important as you point out) I think some context is required (this is from memory so forgive me if the delta numbers are a tiny bit off).
Delta, which has been highly successful both in transmission and in partially evading vaccines has about 5 mutations on it's spike protein. This one has 32 mutations on it's spike protein. It also has 10 mutations on it's receptors which allow the virus to enter cells, including the ones delta has plus others which could translate to greater transmission. I believe in total delta has about 15 mutations from the base covid whilst this variant has 50.
That is why scientists are worried, smaller numbers of mutations in variants are expected and very normal. To see such a high number of mutations is more unusual and probably required a special circumstance such as the immunosuppressed patient.
The WHO stance is baffling.
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:58 - Nov 26 with 1016 views | homer_123 |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:53 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
Totally agree that mutations are expected and normal. However without wanting to overplay this variant (which is important as you point out) I think some context is required (this is from memory so forgive me if the delta numbers are a tiny bit off).
Delta, which has been highly successful both in transmission and in partially evading vaccines has about 5 mutations on it's spike protein. This one has 32 mutations on it's spike protein. It also has 10 mutations on it's receptors which allow the virus to enter cells, including the ones delta has plus others which could translate to greater transmission. I believe in total delta has about 15 mutations from the base covid whilst this variant has 50.
That is why scientists are worried, smaller numbers of mutations in variants are expected and very normal. To see such a high number of mutations is more unusual and probably required a special circumstance such as the immunosuppressed patient.
The WHO stance is baffling.
SB |
Indeed, and my apologies for I can't find the article I was reading last night, this does have very significant mutations as you say (rare but not completely unseen before).
There's a hope, I guess and again, I've not read anything detailed on this as I think it's still an unknown, but it's possible it's not completely stable and therefore might struggle to get a foothold? But as you say, because it's likely developed from someone that had a supressed immune system - it's had enough time to adapt itself to be stable? I think this is unknown.
Again, you are better read than I on this, I wondered, can the current vaccines be adapted to target this one or is the delivery method of the current vaccines to 'tight' to be able to be adjusted, if that makes sense? [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 14:58]
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:59 - Nov 26 with 1011 views | hype313 |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:45 - Nov 26 by homer_123 |
Without wanting to underplay this. Mutations are expected and normal - so in this regard what we are seeing is to be expected. In addition, there was also a relatively high probability that eventually it would mutate to a point where 'current' vaccines aren't effective.
As you say, there are many unknowns with this one and it does appear to be a bit of a bad mix, it's rare but not completely unseen.
I can't quite get my head around WHO suggesting that travel restrictions should be avoided - just can't square that - unless I'm missing something here?
Hopefully the current vaccines can be tweaked/ amended to fight this variant as well. |
Australia have said they won't stop flights from SA and have stated it's a "Variant of Interest" as opposed to Concern. |  |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 15:00 - Nov 26 with 1007 views | homer_123 |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:59 - Nov 26 by hype313 |
Australia have said they won't stop flights from SA and have stated it's a "Variant of Interest" as opposed to Concern. |
I wonder what needs to happen for it to change to 'Concern'? | |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 15:02 - Nov 26 with 1003 views | StokieBlue |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:58 - Nov 26 by homer_123 |
Indeed, and my apologies for I can't find the article I was reading last night, this does have very significant mutations as you say (rare but not completely unseen before).
There's a hope, I guess and again, I've not read anything detailed on this as I think it's still an unknown, but it's possible it's not completely stable and therefore might struggle to get a foothold? But as you say, because it's likely developed from someone that had a supressed immune system - it's had enough time to adapt itself to be stable? I think this is unknown.
Again, you are better read than I on this, I wondered, can the current vaccines be adapted to target this one or is the delivery method of the current vaccines to 'tight' to be able to be adjusted, if that makes sense? [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 14:58]
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I think the worry is that some of these specific mutations have been seen before individually but as you say, they weren't stable. It seems that in this variant they are stable and are accompanied by a large number of other mutations.
mRNA vaccines are much quicker to adapt as it's a bit like writing a computer program. They should be able to tweak those more quickly to hopefully recognise the mutated spike protein if that is required. AZ will likely take a bit longer unfortunately.
Let's hope it's not required, realistically they won't know whether it's needed for a few weeks I guess.
SB | |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 15:03 - Nov 26 with 993 views | StokieBlue |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:59 - Nov 26 by hype313 |
Australia have said they won't stop flights from SA and have stated it's a "Variant of Interest" as opposed to Concern. |
Given their previous stances with regards to covid that's a pretty baffling decision.
Let's hope they are right.
SB [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 15:04]
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:04 - Nov 26 with 1007 views | Trequartista |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:24 - Nov 26 by BlueBadger |
'Japan have eliminated covid because it has mutated itself out of existence'.
Spoiler alert : Japan have low covid rates because they have an impressively high vaccination rate and a strong adherence to masking and social distancing still. |
The cases in Japan have dropped from 23k to 104 in 3 months. How is strong adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing a factor in that gigantic fall when strong adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing were *already* a factor when cases were high? |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:05 - Nov 26 with 990 views | StokieBlue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:04 - Nov 26 by Trequartista |
The cases in Japan have dropped from 23k to 104 in 3 months. How is strong adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing a factor in that gigantic fall when strong adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing were *already* a factor when cases were high? |
Why did you pick two out of the three things badger highlighted and ignore the other one which is probably most important?
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:10 - Nov 26 with 962 views | Trequartista |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:05 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
Why did you pick two out of the three things badger highlighted and ignore the other one which is probably most important?
SB |
I think vaccination rates took a hike during the olympics so I have no reason to doubt that factor. | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:18 - Nov 26 with 935 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:10 - Nov 26 by Trequartista |
I think vaccination rates took a hike during the olympics so I have no reason to doubt that factor. |
Would they have been first or second doses though? |  |
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| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 15:22 - Nov 26 with 920 views | unstableblue |
| How effective would a well immunised population be in restricting mutations? on 14:48 - Nov 26 by homer_123 |
I'm not - it's almost impossible to get collective global agreement on anything. |
I thought this might be somewhat different (to say climate change or nuclear proliferation) as it has caused large scale, local and near term financial and societal challenges, which can effect the political cycle... short term political cycles and populism inhibit long term thinking
I wonder if the Trump, Tory back bench, and significant scepticism in many political groups is a factor.
This is going to happen again without real action, and with something truly virulent it would be catastrophic and would outweigh the costs of any change now.
But that sounds a lot like climate change! |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:32 - Nov 26 with 898 views | Radlett_blue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:59 - Nov 26 by Ryorry |
Some people are just criminally irresponsible. So depressing. |
Man has survived and indeed thrived by being a selfish animal. |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:47 - Nov 26 with 874 views | BlueBadger |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:04 - Nov 26 by Trequartista |
The cases in Japan have dropped from 23k to 104 in 3 months. How is strong adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing a factor in that gigantic fall when strong adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing were *already* a factor when cases were high? |
Strong preventive measures in general like the high vaccination rate which I also cited.
Which you ignored. |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:52 - Nov 26 with 854 views | Trequartista |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:47 - Nov 26 by BlueBadger |
Strong preventive measures in general like the high vaccination rate which I also cited.
Which you ignored. |
As already stated in reply to stokieblue, I didn’t question the vaccination factor because I had read vaccinations spiked during the olympics so therefore I am not disputing that could be a factor. Care to answer the question about the factors I have disputed? | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:00 - Nov 26 with 840 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:52 - Nov 26 by Trequartista |
As already stated in reply to stokieblue, I didn’t question the vaccination factor because I had read vaccinations spiked during the olympics so therefore I am not disputing that could be a factor. Care to answer the question about the factors I have disputed? |
Haven't answered my question yet about whether you think they were first or second doses given at the the Olympics - because that will affect your argument, given what we now know about the importance of 1st and 2nd doses, the time between them, and the need for boosters following the 2nd dose, on the number of cases, deaths and time for recovery from any peaks... | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:01 - Nov 26 with 835 views | textbackup |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 13:57 - Nov 26 by Ely_Blue |
I don’t think you are going to stop it getting in, however I think we can reduce it spreading so quickly.
There are loopholes that need closing, for example listening to the cretin that is Jeremy Vine today he had a caller who was talking about her daughter who had just gone on honeymoon to SA and had only arrived 2 days ago, to avoid quarantine on return she had managed to find a flight out to Cairo at the weekend and back into the uk that way |
You know her exact position in life?
She might not be able to afford to stay in a £3k hotel for 14nights. |  |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:08 - Nov 26 with 829 views | Trequartista |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:00 - Nov 26 by Ewan_Oozami |
Haven't answered my question yet about whether you think they were first or second doses given at the the Olympics - because that will affect your argument, given what we now know about the importance of 1st and 2nd doses, the time between them, and the need for boosters following the 2nd dose, on the number of cases, deaths and time for recovery from any peaks... |
I don’t know to be honest. But that doesn’t affect my argument because I am not disputing the vaccination effect. If you think the dosage schedule means it’s not a factor by all means dispute it with the person who asserted it. | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:21 - Nov 26 with 794 views | StokieBlue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:08 - Nov 26 by Trequartista |
I don’t know to be honest. But that doesn’t affect my argument because I am not disputing the vaccination effect. If you think the dosage schedule means it’s not a factor by all means dispute it with the person who asserted it. |
I think he means the opposite in that it's a major factor.
If the Olympics were the first doses and people have had their second doses more recently then they will have far better immunity that the waning immunity we see in many other countries.
This would translate into lower cases and then wearing masks and having social distancing would amplify that effect.
They certainly have a low number of cases at the moment (although I am unsure how much they test - I haven't looked it up).
SB [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 16:21]
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:25 - Nov 26 with 784 views | NthQldITFC |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 15:32 - Nov 26 by Radlett_blue |
Man has survived and indeed thrived by being a selfish animal. |
So far. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:38 - Nov 26 with 769 views | Trequartista |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:21 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
I think he means the opposite in that it's a major factor.
If the Olympics were the first doses and people have had their second doses more recently then they will have far better immunity that the waning immunity we see in many other countries.
This would translate into lower cases and then wearing masks and having social distancing would amplify that effect.
They certainly have a low number of cases at the moment (although I am unsure how much they test - I haven't looked it up).
SB [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 16:21]
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The masks and distancing would amplify the drop, but by no more than they were already reducing cases before the drop. So my point is that the enormous drop is not down to masks and distancing, increased vaccination is a factor and the discovery of mutations causing a fault in the virus making it unable to replicate by the genetics professor at the National Institute of Genetics in Japan may also be a factor. | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:47 - Nov 26 with 760 views | StokieBlue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:38 - Nov 26 by Trequartista |
The masks and distancing would amplify the drop, but by no more than they were already reducing cases before the drop. So my point is that the enormous drop is not down to masks and distancing, increased vaccination is a factor and the discovery of mutations causing a fault in the virus making it unable to replicate by the genetics professor at the National Institute of Genetics in Japan may also be a factor. |
That would be quite unusual as if a virus cannot replicate it won't infect anyone else and thus it dies out in that patient whilst everyone else continues getting the previous version which can replicate. It's highly unlikely all the circulating virus is going to get the same mutations.
I've not seen any other scientists supporting this theory which was posted from some less than sterling sources yesterday and isn't supported by any scientific papers or reviews. It sounds nice though so it gets coverage.
"Dr. Clarke said: “I find it incredibly difficult to believe that all Covid-19 in Japan has simultaneously and more-or-less in unison, evolved to be a dead end, that seems like a bizarre suggestion.
“It seems much more likely that partial immunity with whatever measures the Japanese have been taking in public health have driven down infection number. "
- Dr. Simon Clarke, Head of Division of Biomedical Sciences and Biomedical Engineering at University of Reading
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 17:04 - Nov 26 with 724 views | Trequartista |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 16:47 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
That would be quite unusual as if a virus cannot replicate it won't infect anyone else and thus it dies out in that patient whilst everyone else continues getting the previous version which can replicate. It's highly unlikely all the circulating virus is going to get the same mutations.
I've not seen any other scientists supporting this theory which was posted from some less than sterling sources yesterday and isn't supported by any scientific papers or reviews. It sounds nice though so it gets coverage.
"Dr. Clarke said: “I find it incredibly difficult to believe that all Covid-19 in Japan has simultaneously and more-or-less in unison, evolved to be a dead end, that seems like a bizarre suggestion.
“It seems much more likely that partial immunity with whatever measures the Japanese have been taking in public health have driven down infection number. "
- Dr. Simon Clarke, Head of Division of Biomedical Sciences and Biomedical Engineering at University of Reading
SB |
You’ve cherry-picked what Dr Clarke has said there. He also agreed that a virus will stop replicating if it mutates too many times and he believes this what happened with SARS. He doesn’t dispute the Japanese professor’s findings, he disputes that dead mutations were the major cause of the drop and that this is the now the end of Covid in Japan.
The science regarding the error-correcting enzyme nsp14 sounds quite interesting to me. If that can be targeted by future vaccines or anti-virals that could be a vital breakthrough. | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 17:22 - Nov 26 with 700 views | factual_blue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 14:49 - Nov 26 by homer_123 |
But are you sure about that Badge? |
We need somebody to supply some data they don't/won't understand properly to clear this up for us.
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 17:24 - Nov 26 with 699 views | StokieBlue |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 17:04 - Nov 26 by Trequartista |
You’ve cherry-picked what Dr Clarke has said there. He also agreed that a virus will stop replicating if it mutates too many times and he believes this what happened with SARS. He doesn’t dispute the Japanese professor’s findings, he disputes that dead mutations were the major cause of the drop and that this is the now the end of Covid in Japan.
The science regarding the error-correcting enzyme nsp14 sounds quite interesting to me. If that can be targeted by future vaccines or anti-virals that could be a vital breakthrough. |
I've not cherry picked at all. I've picked the bit which are relevant to Japan. The bit I pasted was his conclusion which clearly doesn't agree with the Japanese interpretation and cites other factors as far more likely to be the reason.
He also said this:
“However, that will only occur in a very small subset of cases."
“There will still be a lot of coronavirus around that is capable of infecting people and will do just that until we have sufficient immunity or we can break the chains of transmission, which is what happened with SARS because it wasn’t as good at transmission as Covid-19.”
So as I said, the other non-mutated C19 will just take over again and the defunct mutated one would die off. He's then gone on to cite the measures I quoted above as the most likely cause.
"and the discovery of mutations causing a fault in the virus making it unable to replicate by the genetics professor at the National Institute of Genetics in Japan may also be a factor."
There is no published work on this at all and I can't find many who agree with the interpretation of the Japanese scientist. It's far too early to cite it as a possible factor as you've done. If the science changes then of course that can change but that's the current state of play.
SB | |
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| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 17:57 - Nov 26 with 651 views | Ryorry |
| Unfortunately it's looking like the red listing wasn't enough on 17:24 - Nov 26 by StokieBlue |
I've not cherry picked at all. I've picked the bit which are relevant to Japan. The bit I pasted was his conclusion which clearly doesn't agree with the Japanese interpretation and cites other factors as far more likely to be the reason.
He also said this:
“However, that will only occur in a very small subset of cases."
“There will still be a lot of coronavirus around that is capable of infecting people and will do just that until we have sufficient immunity or we can break the chains of transmission, which is what happened with SARS because it wasn’t as good at transmission as Covid-19.”
So as I said, the other non-mutated C19 will just take over again and the defunct mutated one would die off. He's then gone on to cite the measures I quoted above as the most likely cause.
"and the discovery of mutations causing a fault in the virus making it unable to replicate by the genetics professor at the National Institute of Genetics in Japan may also be a factor."
There is no published work on this at all and I can't find many who agree with the interpretation of the Japanese scientist. It's far too early to cite it as a possible factor as you've done. If the science changes then of course that can change but that's the current state of play.
SB |
Just one question - how do you find the time (and patience) for all this?! |  |
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