| Redrawing of constituency boundaries 10:43 - Jan 16 with 2802 views | NthQldITFC |
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67361138
I can see the need to redraw boundaries in theory (I think), but I wonder if there are well-controlled, neutral criteria in use for when and how such redrawing is done. There's obvious room for suspicion that incumbents might do so in such a way and at such a time as to maintain access to the trough.
Can any of our resident political experts reassure or enlighten me? |  |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 10:51 - Jan 16 with 2180 views | baxterbasics |
Boundary Commissions are independent, I'm not sure what the exact rules or criteria are beyond attempting to keep voter numbers roughly equal across the board. It's not like ministers or party officials can just divvy it up in any way that suits them.
Of course this doesn't stop people on the side that loses out crying 'gerrymandering' every time this happens. But it's really not like what has been seen in some US states which can be quite dodgy. |  |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 10:56 - Jan 16 with 2154 views | belgablue |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 10:51 - Jan 16 by baxterbasics |
Boundary Commissions are independent, I'm not sure what the exact rules or criteria are beyond attempting to keep voter numbers roughly equal across the board. It's not like ministers or party officials can just divvy it up in any way that suits them.
Of course this doesn't stop people on the side that loses out crying 'gerrymandering' every time this happens. But it's really not like what has been seen in some US states which can be quite dodgy. |
I think the only political input in reality if I'm not mistaken is Gov deciding whether to adopt or ignore the recommendations. Unless that's changed |  |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 10:58 - Jan 16 with 2144 views | redrickstuhaart |
The boindary commision do it. They are broadly independemt. |  | | |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 11:01 - Jan 16 with 2130 views | bluelagos |
Think they are just trying to ensure constituencies remain roughly similar size.
But our system is royally fcked anyhow - as it is favours the two big parties at the expense of all others.
Got no time for reform party - but they could easily get 10% of the votes and nil seats. All small parties are disadvantaged by FPTP - which is far from democratic.
The other thing is the built in bias whereby Labour need more % to get a majority than the Tories. Those predictor things - you throw in 38% for each of them and the Tories get more seats.
And check out the 83 results. 26% of the electorate for 13 seats ffs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England
So I think the need for PR is way more of an issue - but the reds and blues ain't going to change it. They talk about democracy whilst benefiting from a system that excludes all but 2 parties from fair representation. |  |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 11:41 - Jan 16 with 2063 views | bournemouthblue |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 11:01 - Jan 16 by bluelagos |
Think they are just trying to ensure constituencies remain roughly similar size.
But our system is royally fcked anyhow - as it is favours the two big parties at the expense of all others.
Got no time for reform party - but they could easily get 10% of the votes and nil seats. All small parties are disadvantaged by FPTP - which is far from democratic.
The other thing is the built in bias whereby Labour need more % to get a majority than the Tories. Those predictor things - you throw in 38% for each of them and the Tories get more seats.
And check out the 83 results. 26% of the electorate for 13 seats ffs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England
So I think the need for PR is way more of an issue - but the reds and blues ain't going to change it. They talk about democracy whilst benefiting from a system that excludes all but 2 parties from fair representation. |
It's a funny old system certainly and in truth there is no perfect system, however you work it
Proportional representation is more democratic but would give momentum to some of the more extreme parties, such as we saw with the Brexit Party in the EU elections
My general feeling is the general population are Conservative with a small c and the Tory strategy for a while has been to slowly make the country more and more right wing, to try and nip UKIP and the Brexit Party in the bud to the point where you now have elected Tory MP's like Tom Hunt who are keen on culture wars and actively deny the presence of the Far Right groups at a protest that the Far Right groups literally promoted
The Tory Party have lost the plot frankly, they need to lose the next election, go away and have a long hard look at themselves. I can't believe any rational Tory voters even agree with them any more.
https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-claims-by-refugee-row-mp-of-no-far-rig [Post edited 16 Jan 2024 11:41]
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 11:45 - Jan 16 with 2022 views | SouthfieldsBlue |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 10:56 - Jan 16 by belgablue |
I think the only political input in reality if I'm not mistaken is Gov deciding whether to adopt or ignore the recommendations. Unless that's changed |
That's changed now with the Parliamentary Constuiences Act 2020, Parliament no longer has to vote to approve the changes, and Minister must pass an Order in Council to implement the changes within 4 months unless "exceptional circumstances".
Broadly they are being redrawn to ensure all seats are within 5% of a set size with a couple of exceptions (islands mostly), think there are also provisions to as much as possible keep constituencies in as few different local authorities as possible, preferably 1.
Boundary Commission is independent and you need to have been apolitical for quite a while before you can work there.
Net effect is about +7 seats to the Tories, as Labour heartlands which have shrunk in population lose seats, and Tory heartlands which have increased in population get more seats. There is some history here that I won't go much into, bur broadly the Tories are keen on the equal.size provisions as some safe Labour seats got very small towards the end of Blair/Brown.
Next review is in 2030, and will be every 8 years after that. | | | |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 11:50 - Jan 16 with 2008 views | bluelagos |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 11:41 - Jan 16 by bournemouthblue |
It's a funny old system certainly and in truth there is no perfect system, however you work it
Proportional representation is more democratic but would give momentum to some of the more extreme parties, such as we saw with the Brexit Party in the EU elections
My general feeling is the general population are Conservative with a small c and the Tory strategy for a while has been to slowly make the country more and more right wing, to try and nip UKIP and the Brexit Party in the bud to the point where you now have elected Tory MP's like Tom Hunt who are keen on culture wars and actively deny the presence of the Far Right groups at a protest that the Far Right groups literally promoted
The Tory Party have lost the plot frankly, they need to lose the next election, go away and have a long hard look at themselves. I can't believe any rational Tory voters even agree with them any more.
https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-claims-by-refugee-row-mp-of-no-far-rig [Post edited 16 Jan 2024 11:41]
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There was a chart the other day showing where 2019 voters would go. One interesting bit was that 8% of 2019 Tory voters had died which automatically gives the Tories a hill to climb.
Is looking more and more like a wipeout - but still plenty of time for a shift in the polls. Looking at the Telegraph poll/article - even if the Tories get battered - they still get in all over Suffolk (bar Ipswich and Lowestoft) - many of us are literally stuck with them whatever as MPs. | |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:21 - Jan 16 with 1956 views | Clapham_Junction |
The process is gerrymandered by how they size constituencies - rather than using population, they do it on the number of registered voters. Certain population groups are less likely to register to vote (for example, only 65% of private renters were registered in 2022), and most such groups are more likely to vote Labour (96% of retirees are registered vote compared to 67% of 20-24 year olds).
This tends to mean urban areas end up underrepresented in terms of numbers of constituencies, with obvious impacts on the election results.
Edit - some analysis done last year suggested this deficiency causes a bias that amounts to the equivalent of 22 seats: https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/09/02/revealed-how-millions-of-missing-voters-b [Post edited 16 Jan 2024 12:28]
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:42 - Jan 16 with 1848 views | NthQldITFC |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 11:41 - Jan 16 by bournemouthblue |
It's a funny old system certainly and in truth there is no perfect system, however you work it
Proportional representation is more democratic but would give momentum to some of the more extreme parties, such as we saw with the Brexit Party in the EU elections
My general feeling is the general population are Conservative with a small c and the Tory strategy for a while has been to slowly make the country more and more right wing, to try and nip UKIP and the Brexit Party in the bud to the point where you now have elected Tory MP's like Tom Hunt who are keen on culture wars and actively deny the presence of the Far Right groups at a protest that the Far Right groups literally promoted
The Tory Party have lost the plot frankly, they need to lose the next election, go away and have a long hard look at themselves. I can't believe any rational Tory voters even agree with them any more.
https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-claims-by-refugee-row-mp-of-no-far-rig [Post edited 16 Jan 2024 11:41]
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Is it now safe to say 'Proportional Representation' again? | |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:42 - Jan 16 with 1850 views | lowhouseblue |
as soon as the 2019 election results came in it was obvious that an unprecedented swing would be required for a future labour majority. the general view was that it would be impossible in one electoral cycle. huge numbers of tory voters need to switch to labour. the boundary commission changes have had a relatively marginal effect. it is miraculous that starmer has made it now look possible - not many would have forecast it immediately post the last election. it is difficult to over-estimate the hole that labour had then dug for itself. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:50 - Jan 16 with 1791 views | Blueschev |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:42 - Jan 16 by lowhouseblue |
as soon as the 2019 election results came in it was obvious that an unprecedented swing would be required for a future labour majority. the general view was that it would be impossible in one electoral cycle. huge numbers of tory voters need to switch to labour. the boundary commission changes have had a relatively marginal effect. it is miraculous that starmer has made it now look possible - not many would have forecast it immediately post the last election. it is difficult to over-estimate the hole that labour had then dug for itself. |
Labour should also benefit from the fact that since the election of 2019, the government has been comprised of some of the most incompetent, dishonest, sleazy, self centred and generally vile human beings this country has ever produced. |  | | |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:50 - Jan 16 with 1787 views | baxterbasics |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:21 - Jan 16 by Clapham_Junction |
The process is gerrymandered by how they size constituencies - rather than using population, they do it on the number of registered voters. Certain population groups are less likely to register to vote (for example, only 65% of private renters were registered in 2022), and most such groups are more likely to vote Labour (96% of retirees are registered vote compared to 67% of 20-24 year olds).
This tends to mean urban areas end up underrepresented in terms of numbers of constituencies, with obvious impacts on the election results.
Edit - some analysis done last year suggested this deficiency causes a bias that amounts to the equivalent of 22 seats: https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/09/02/revealed-how-millions-of-missing-voters-b [Post edited 16 Jan 2024 12:28]
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Going by registered voters is the only way to do it.
If portions of the qualifying public choose not to register, that's on them. It's not hard and doesn't cost.
Democracy functions best when people make an effort. That's the point. | |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:52 - Jan 16 with 1770 views | lowhouseblue |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:50 - Jan 16 by Blueschev |
Labour should also benefit from the fact that since the election of 2019, the government has been comprised of some of the most incompetent, dishonest, sleazy, self centred and generally vile human beings this country has ever produced. |
yes. and enabling them to get an unprecedented majority was definitely a mistake. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:53 - Jan 16 with 1745 views | DanTheMan |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:42 - Jan 16 by NthQldITFC |
Is it now safe to say 'Proportional Representation' again? |
It should happen but I don't think it will in my lifetime. |  |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:56 - Jan 16 with 1708 views | Blueschev |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:52 - Jan 16 by lowhouseblue |
yes. and enabling them to get an unprecedented majority was definitely a mistake. |
Whilst I completely agree with you, I'm not sure we'd agree on who we believe those enablers were. | | | |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:58 - Jan 16 with 1688 views | Blueschev |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:53 - Jan 16 by DanTheMan |
It should happen but I don't think it will in my lifetime. |
There's only two parties who could introduce PR, and unfortunately they're the two beneficiaries of the status quo. | | | |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 13:00 - Jan 16 with 1669 views | baxterbasics |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 11:41 - Jan 16 by bournemouthblue |
It's a funny old system certainly and in truth there is no perfect system, however you work it
Proportional representation is more democratic but would give momentum to some of the more extreme parties, such as we saw with the Brexit Party in the EU elections
My general feeling is the general population are Conservative with a small c and the Tory strategy for a while has been to slowly make the country more and more right wing, to try and nip UKIP and the Brexit Party in the bud to the point where you now have elected Tory MP's like Tom Hunt who are keen on culture wars and actively deny the presence of the Far Right groups at a protest that the Far Right groups literally promoted
The Tory Party have lost the plot frankly, they need to lose the next election, go away and have a long hard look at themselves. I can't believe any rational Tory voters even agree with them any more.
https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-claims-by-refugee-row-mp-of-no-far-rig [Post edited 16 Jan 2024 11:41]
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You are right about PR allowing extreme parties a foothold. We see it across Europe where both far left and right do win seats, and occasionally can even influence the government that is eventually formed after protracted negotiations.
Two party dominance can work so long as those parties remain broad churches with room for all across the spectrum. Unfortunately voters seem to be getting more polarised around niche issues and more disaffected with the 'centrists' | |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 13:00 - Jan 16 with 1669 views | DanTheMan |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:58 - Jan 16 by Blueschev |
There's only two parties who could introduce PR, and unfortunately they're the two beneficiaries of the status quo. |
Exactly. It would take one of them doing it on principle which just won't happen.
Another issue with our broken political system. | |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 13:01 - Jan 16 with 1664 views | lowhouseblue |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:56 - Jan 16 by Blueschev |
Whilst I completely agree with you, I'm not sure we'd agree on who we believe those enablers were. |
logically it would be the people the electorate thought were an even worse choice than the most incompetent, dishonest, sleazy, self centred and generally vile human beings this country has ever produced. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 13:02 - Jan 16 with 1652 views | NthQldITFC |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 12:53 - Jan 16 by DanTheMan |
It should happen but I don't think it will in my lifetime. |
I was thinking more in terms of whether I'd get my head bitten off by a certain ex-poster. | |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 13:07 - Jan 16 with 1627 views | BlueRaider |
I think it was fair, before the redrawing there were a lot of very small constituencies (40,000 or so people - compared to the average 65-70k), particularly in South Wales. This unfairly favoured Labour and Plaid Cymru, so the redrawing will look good for the Tories, but is probably fair - still won't save them though ! | |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 13:11 - Jan 16 with 1608 views | Blueschev |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 13:01 - Jan 16 by lowhouseblue |
logically it would be the people the electorate thought were an even worse choice than the most incompetent, dishonest, sleazy, self centred and generally vile human beings this country has ever produced. |
Well them and those who seemed more focused on bringing down their own side than getting rid of said incompetents. "Vote for us if you like, even though we're rubbish" isn't a great sell. I also think that the "peoples vote" debacle was enormously damaging , and seen as a Labour led movement trying to overturn a vote they didn't like, whilst calling half the population idiots. But I think we might have been through all of this once or twice before :). [Post edited 16 Jan 2024 13:12]
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 14:22 - Jan 16 with 1520 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 10:58 - Jan 16 by redrickstuhaart |
The boindary commision do it. They are broadly independemt. |
Isn't that the Irish version? |  |
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| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 14:30 - Jan 16 with 1500 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Redrawing of constituency boundaries on 13:01 - Jan 16 by lowhouseblue |
logically it would be the people the electorate thought were an even worse choice than the most incompetent, dishonest, sleazy, self centred and generally vile human beings this country has ever produced. |
No nuance regarding the 'worst-in-history' smearing by the right wing press then? |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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