| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... 14:14 - Jan 9 with 15735 views | bluelagos |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:33 - Jan 9 with 2385 views | gordon |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:16 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
I agree that the intent in the amendment tabled today is to avoid us running out of time and falling into a no deal.
The issue though remains that an "alternative deal" with the EU needs to be agreed in the parliament in the next few weeks if the EU is to entertain extending the negotiations.
I have been following the debate today and nothing much has changed from the previous debates. We have a deeply divided parliament with no consensus on what an alternative proposal to what May has produced on the table. |
The plan that May puts before parliament after her deal is rejected will be amendable, so at that point we'll see whether there is a majority in parliament for a second referendum. Assuming Corbyn finally moves a no confidence motion in the Gov straight after the deal is rejected (assuming the no confidence motion fails) labour will move on to supporting a second ref, and if they do it is likely to pass. |  | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:38 - Jan 9 with 2378 views | linhdi |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:16 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
I agree that the intent in the amendment tabled today is to avoid us running out of time and falling into a no deal.
The issue though remains that an "alternative deal" with the EU needs to be agreed in the parliament in the next few weeks if the EU is to entertain extending the negotiations.
I have been following the debate today and nothing much has changed from the previous debates. We have a deeply divided parliament with no consensus on what an alternative proposal to what May has produced on the table. |
I think Parliament would have a majority in favour of Norwayish, ie yes to Customs Union, at least a temporary yes to Single Market. EU will happily offer this, and allow an A50 extension to give time to achieve it.
The problem all along has been May's ridiculous and mutually exclusive red lines. |  | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:46 - Jan 9 with 2370 views | Pinewoodblue |
I might be misunderstanding today's vote, just spent five hours driving back to Suffolk from Chichester, but surely all the vote means is if May cannot carry her proposals that an unholy alliance between Remainers, Corbyn, and the speaker, have tied her hands to providing alternative proposals within three days.
Surely parliament has already agreed we leave the EU on 29th March deal or no deal.
May doesn't have to provide an alternative it has already been agreed. |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:48 - Jan 9 with 2370 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:33 - Jan 9 by gordon |
The plan that May puts before parliament after her deal is rejected will be amendable, so at that point we'll see whether there is a majority in parliament for a second referendum. Assuming Corbyn finally moves a no confidence motion in the Gov straight after the deal is rejected (assuming the no confidence motion fails) labour will move on to supporting a second ref, and if they do it is likely to pass. |
I think that is right up to a point.
Even if Labour secure a second referendum, it is far from certain this would support remain.
Given that JC has not nailed his colours to the mast of staying in the EU (he is a known euro-sceptic and the EU rules on state aid are not aligned to his political agenda) I am not convinced he is in the remain camp.
I may well be wrong but his actions to date suggest someone who is trying to take control after we fall out of Europe rather than someone who is intent on changing the course of history. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:51 - Jan 9 with 2365 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 15:53 - Jan 9 by SomethingBlue |
So are you whatabouting his whatabouting? [Post edited 9 Jan 2019 15:54]
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Would that be Whatabout Out? |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 22:00 - Jan 9 with 2360 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:38 - Jan 9 by linhdi |
I think Parliament would have a majority in favour of Norwayish, ie yes to Customs Union, at least a temporary yes to Single Market. EU will happily offer this, and allow an A50 extension to give time to achieve it.
The problem all along has been May's ridiculous and mutually exclusive red lines. |
From a democratic perspective, the challenge we face is that the parliamentary majority is to remain not leave. It does not represent the referendum result.
Normally, having been given the marching orders by the referendum to leave the EU, the Government should have been tasked with carrying out the direction of the people. Parliament would then ensure that the government delivered the will of the people.
Where this has gone awry is when members of parliament argued that they should have more say on the deal beyond ensuring the government took us out of the EU.
Given that parliament does not support the referendum result, we are where we are. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 22:04 - Jan 9 with 2348 views | bluelagos |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 21:46 - Jan 9 by Pinewoodblue |
I might be misunderstanding today's vote, just spent five hours driving back to Suffolk from Chichester, but surely all the vote means is if May cannot carry her proposals that an unholy alliance between Remainers, Corbyn, and the speaker, have tied her hands to providing alternative proposals within three days.
Surely parliament has already agreed we leave the EU on 29th March deal or no deal.
May doesn't have to provide an alternative it has already been agreed. |
I think it's now fairly clear that MPs simply won't allow that scenario to play out. The current position of falling out unless something changes...well twice in 2 days MPs have made clear they won't play along.
And the government will now be forced to return with a new plan much quicker than before. The 'run down the clock' tactic is no longer an option.
(Albeit, I still think there are loads of possible outcomes and I wouldn't predict where it's going) | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 22:17 - Jan 9 with 2337 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 22:04 - Jan 9 by bluelagos |
I think it's now fairly clear that MPs simply won't allow that scenario to play out. The current position of falling out unless something changes...well twice in 2 days MPs have made clear they won't play along.
And the government will now be forced to return with a new plan much quicker than before. The 'run down the clock' tactic is no longer an option.
(Albeit, I still think there are loads of possible outcomes and I wouldn't predict where it's going) |
It makes running down the clock harder and that is a good thing,
The big issue remains developing a consensus on what the future relationship could look like and doing this over the next few weeks so that we can persuade the EU to extend negotiations.
I am certain that May will not consider revoking A50 and I am not convinced JC would either. | | | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 23:06 - Jan 9 with 2305 views | StokieBlue |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 20:34 - Jan 9 by SpruceMoose |
Seems like the Conservatives should be all over it then. Success is guaranteed. |
That polling really shows what a shower the Labour leadership are at the moment. The Tories are absolutely abysmal, a collection of Campbell soup tins should be able to beat them yet they are losing ground at a very fast rate.
Perhaps it's because JC only cares about getting into power to make his domestic changes and doesn't give a monkeys about Brexit. His comments this evening just confirm that stance:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/corbyn-to-again-call-for-genera
Rather than pushing the government on Brexit and taking a position that will make sure he does very well at the next GE he just wants one now as apparently that will make Brexit fine - the EU will suddenly change their mind about all their demands once Labour are in power.
Guess it's lucky the backbenchers of both parties have decided their leaders aren't to be listened to.
SB
Edit: Labour declined to send a shadow cabinet minister to Newsnight this evening, they really don't want to answer any questions. Chuka stepped up for the backbenchers instead. [Post edited 9 Jan 2019 23:10]
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 03:14 - Jan 10 with 2253 views | connorscontract |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 17:33 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
I did make the point that an extension would need the agreement of the EU27.
What I could have made clearer is why would the EU27 agree to this request for an extension? They are as fed up with BREXIT as many in the UK, they also have much bigger issues to attend. EU elections, new EU parliament, Russia, migration crises are higher up their list of concerns than the UK decision to leave.
I can not see them being interested in prolonging negotiations if it is going to be more of the same. This was the point that I was trying to make. The UK PM would need to able to clearly articulate what type of relationship the UK wanted with the EU and have a mandate - either another referendum or an election fought on a specific future agreement - before the EU would be prepared to extend negotiations. I still think this is a tough ask in the time we have available. |
Sorry, I may have slightly misemphasised my point. It was more of an amplification than a disagreement with what you said.
My point is that *probably* a heck of a lot will have to happen for the EU to grant us an extension, and that there is a possibility that some countries may be unwilling to do so whilst May is still PM. Whereas if a new PM comes in the pressure from the EU centre would be on all nations to give that person an extension to give them a chance to find a way forward. Which could include a Second Referendum (an option which May has absolutely closed off for herself, and that she surely can't go back on.)
Parliament won't back a No Deal, but can't stop Article 50.
Parliament won't back May's Deal.
There isn't time for a Referendum.
May can't be voted out of office by Tory MPs.
Corbyn probably can't muster enough support for a Vote of No Confidence in the Government.
There isn't time for a Second Referendum without an extension.
If May loses her vote:
Either:
May has to present a Plan B to Parliament. But she can't improve her deal, and won't offer a Referendum.
Or:
She refuses and resigns
It's a flowchart, and May is the blockage.
I think she'll resign after she loses the vote, as the only way out is either a Second Referendum to put her Deal to the public against Remain, or somebody else to try a different approach in negotiations or to enthusiastically off Ref2.
Putin's plan has been remarkably successful:
The US Government is in Shutdown, the UK Government is in Meltdown, and the French nation is in tools down. And I haven't even got on to how he managed to cause a fuss at Porton Down! | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 07:56 - Jan 10 with 2221 views | gordon |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 22:00 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
From a democratic perspective, the challenge we face is that the parliamentary majority is to remain not leave. It does not represent the referendum result.
Normally, having been given the marching orders by the referendum to leave the EU, the Government should have been tasked with carrying out the direction of the people. Parliament would then ensure that the government delivered the will of the people.
Where this has gone awry is when members of parliament argued that they should have more say on the deal beyond ensuring the government took us out of the EU.
Given that parliament does not support the referendum result, we are where we are. |
The job of Members of parliament is to represent the interests of their constituents, not 'ensure that the government delivers the will of the people', whatever the 'will of the people' is. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 08:02 - Jan 10 with 2215 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 03:14 - Jan 10 by connorscontract |
Sorry, I may have slightly misemphasised my point. It was more of an amplification than a disagreement with what you said.
My point is that *probably* a heck of a lot will have to happen for the EU to grant us an extension, and that there is a possibility that some countries may be unwilling to do so whilst May is still PM. Whereas if a new PM comes in the pressure from the EU centre would be on all nations to give that person an extension to give them a chance to find a way forward. Which could include a Second Referendum (an option which May has absolutely closed off for herself, and that she surely can't go back on.)
Parliament won't back a No Deal, but can't stop Article 50.
Parliament won't back May's Deal.
There isn't time for a Referendum.
May can't be voted out of office by Tory MPs.
Corbyn probably can't muster enough support for a Vote of No Confidence in the Government.
There isn't time for a Second Referendum without an extension.
If May loses her vote:
Either:
May has to present a Plan B to Parliament. But she can't improve her deal, and won't offer a Referendum.
Or:
She refuses and resigns
It's a flowchart, and May is the blockage.
I think she'll resign after she loses the vote, as the only way out is either a Second Referendum to put her Deal to the public against Remain, or somebody else to try a different approach in negotiations or to enthusiastically off Ref2.
Putin's plan has been remarkably successful:
The US Government is in Shutdown, the UK Government is in Meltdown, and the French nation is in tools down. And I haven't even got on to how he managed to cause a fuss at Porton Down! |
I would not rule out May returning to Brussels to seek concessions or further reassurances. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 08:07 - Jan 10 with 2208 views | Herbivore |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 08:02 - Jan 10 by xrayspecs |
I would not rule out May returning to Brussels to seek concessions or further reassurances. |
She won't get them, not on her deal. Her only option would be to change tack and go for a Norway type deal but she won't do that because she has a massive hard on for ending freedom of movement. It's that particular red line that has caused many of the issues in terms of negotiating a deal. |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 08:45 - Jan 10 with 2185 views | gordon |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 08:07 - Jan 10 by Herbivore |
She won't get them, not on her deal. Her only option would be to change tack and go for a Norway type deal but she won't do that because she has a massive hard on for ending freedom of movement. It's that particular red line that has caused many of the issues in terms of negotiating a deal. |
The two options now are basically a referendum or change tack to pursue the Norway type deal if a parliamentary majority exists for either, because those are the two options for which the EU would grant an extension of article 50. There aren't any other feasible options. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 09:04 - Jan 10 with 2168 views | xrayspecs |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 08:07 - Jan 10 by Herbivore |
She won't get them, not on her deal. Her only option would be to change tack and go for a Norway type deal but she won't do that because she has a massive hard on for ending freedom of movement. It's that particular red line that has caused many of the issues in terms of negotiating a deal. |
Quite possibly. It would not stop her trying though. | | | |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 09:07 - Jan 10 with 2166 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Mmm......I think we are seeing the 'men in grey suits' reminding us and parliament who really runs the country. I am sure that the fact the most vocal mps in this matter are those that want a second referendum is purely coincidental....!!! |  |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 09:08 - Jan 10 with 2164 views | StokieBlue |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 08:45 - Jan 10 by gordon |
The two options now are basically a referendum or change tack to pursue the Norway type deal if a parliamentary majority exists for either, because those are the two options for which the EU would grant an extension of article 50. There aren't any other feasible options. |
The most important thing is to have another general election.
Corbyn said it yesterday and Owen Jones is trumpeting it loud and clear today. We have loads of time after all.
SB | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 09:11 - Jan 10 with 2152 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 14:23 - Jan 9 by StokieBlue |
To be fair though, whilst it's an outcome myself and many will like, the accusations against Bercow by the Tories are pretty fair.
He’s gone against protocol and clerk advice (it seems) in order to allow something he agrees with. Duncan-Smith pointed out he didn’t allow this when he asked for it many times in the past so it does all look a little impartial.
Happy with the result but I also think Bercow might have overstayed his welcome. His handling of the JC stuff the other week was strange as well.
SB |
The sacrificial lamb for the real power brokers......status quo anybody, as that has been going really well recently hasn't it.....let's see if they can shove the plebs back into their boxes before they get too many ideas above their status! | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 09:18 - Jan 10 with 2138 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 22:17 - Jan 9 by xrayspecs |
It makes running down the clock harder and that is a good thing,
The big issue remains developing a consensus on what the future relationship could look like and doing this over the next few weeks so that we can persuade the EU to extend negotiations.
I am certain that May will not consider revoking A50 and I am not convinced JC would either. |
If they can not get (May's) the pro Europe civil servant's not leaving Europe leave version through then they will extend article 50 imho! | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 09:37 - Jan 10 with 2118 views | StokieBlue |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 09:11 - Jan 10 by BanksterDebtSlave |
The sacrificial lamb for the real power brokers......status quo anybody, as that has been going really well recently hasn't it.....let's see if they can shove the plebs back into their boxes before they get too many ideas above their status! |
I think that's a spurious argument.
Clerks and the previous speaker have said it was the wrong thing to do, the right result maybe but the wrong way to achieve it.
It's absolutely fine to change procedure, that shouldn't be done by a single person on a whim though, it should be a considered process. Bercow has essentially become all powerful setting this precedence without consultation.
SB | |
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| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 09:38 - Jan 10 with 2114 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Think we're seeing the death of No deal... on 23:06 - Jan 9 by StokieBlue |
That polling really shows what a shower the Labour leadership are at the moment. The Tories are absolutely abysmal, a collection of Campbell soup tins should be able to beat them yet they are losing ground at a very fast rate.
Perhaps it's because JC only cares about getting into power to make his domestic changes and doesn't give a monkeys about Brexit. His comments this evening just confirm that stance:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/corbyn-to-again-call-for-genera
Rather than pushing the government on Brexit and taking a position that will make sure he does very well at the next GE he just wants one now as apparently that will make Brexit fine - the EU will suddenly change their mind about all their demands once Labour are in power.
Guess it's lucky the backbenchers of both parties have decided their leaders aren't to be listened to.
SB
Edit: Labour declined to send a shadow cabinet minister to Newsnight this evening, they really don't want to answer any questions. Chuka stepped up for the backbenchers instead. [Post edited 9 Jan 2019 23:10]
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Would those be Alastair Campbell soup tins?
(Urgh, just felt a bit of sick) |  |
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