| No surprises that things will get worse before they get 07:53 - Mar 29 with 5449 views | homer_123 |
Better and that tougher measures will come in.
Said from the very outset that this was always the endgame for us regardless of the fact the UK tried a different path.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52079922
Stay safe everyone.
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:19 - Mar 29 with 1778 views | ElephantintheRoom |
50% death rate if those on ventilators is not entirely encouraging either.
Perhaps the government strategy of not testing and isolating, thus ensuring nobody knows just how many are infected in the communities whereGPs, carers, shop staff etc continue to serve on a daily basis on the true front line without protective equipment - now added to with all the national hosipital contents sent home without adequate care provision might not be entirely positive either. |  |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:32 - Mar 29 with 1750 views | Radlett_blue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:43 - Mar 29 by sparks |
Tests per million is perhaps the most relevant stat. We are pretty low on that for a country with one of the highest infection and death rates so far. |
Disagree. Testing policies are different for every country so this data muddies the waters. The only reliable statistic is deaths from the virus/million people as both of the variables are reliable and less subject to other forces, as long as we are sure that the virus was the cause.
The UK numbers are bound to get worse for the next week or so; this should not lead to panic measures. The tougher the measure you bring in, the greater the likelihood of a second surge and also the associated economic pain (which should not be ignored) will be greater. |  |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:55 - Mar 29 with 1713 views | Swansea_Blue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:18 - Mar 29 by pointofblue |
No, I do apologise because it was failure to read first time around - the site crashed and I assumed it was another “we should have gone into lockdown sooner” article which, whilst possibly correct, is not exceptionally helpful now. Later, yes, when the enquiries begin but not now.
As it is that is frightening to read and I’m sure the CSO and CMO will be placed under scrutiny once this has passed. My biggest concern is there is no solution offered on the article; in other words we missed our opportunity to change the course.
The saddest thing is I doubt we’re the only country to fall foul of this. Other than South Korea, maybe, which was helped by the infections being exceptionally localised at the start, every nation seems to have been slow to grasp the seriousness of what was happening elsewhere and prepare. [Post edited 29 Mar 2020 11:21]
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No worries. Yes, to a large extent it seems the horse has bolted. There’s an interview with Germany’s leading ventilator manufacturer in Der Spiegel that talks about the chances of meeting demand for equipment and PPE (no chance). It’s not definitive, but interesting to hear his views on many talking points in this country, from whether non-specialist manufactures could help to meeting demand for masks. There’s even a nice display of the German temperament at the end when he discusses his own situation.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-ventilator-manufacturer-abso
They’ll need to be a thorough review of our (seemingly poor) readiness for this once it’s all over. That’s being picked up in the profession, although probably not the priority unless some quick lessons can be learnt to improve things on the front line easily/quickly.
Some interesting views on that here:
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:59 - Mar 29 with 1704 views | sparks |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:32 - Mar 29 by Radlett_blue |
Disagree. Testing policies are different for every country so this data muddies the waters. The only reliable statistic is deaths from the virus/million people as both of the variables are reliable and less subject to other forces, as long as we are sure that the virus was the cause.
The UK numbers are bound to get worse for the next week or so; this should not lead to panic measures. The tougher the measure you bring in, the greater the likelihood of a second surge and also the associated economic pain (which should not be ignored) will be greater. |
Not sure what you disagree with. If you are looking at adequacy of testing, then tests per capita is clearly the essential metric- and we are very low, as against our number of infections. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:09 - Mar 29 with 1698 views | Lord_Lucan |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:32 - Mar 29 by Radlett_blue |
Disagree. Testing policies are different for every country so this data muddies the waters. The only reliable statistic is deaths from the virus/million people as both of the variables are reliable and less subject to other forces, as long as we are sure that the virus was the cause.
The UK numbers are bound to get worse for the next week or so; this should not lead to panic measures. The tougher the measure you bring in, the greater the likelihood of a second surge and also the associated economic pain (which should not be ignored) will be greater. |
I tend to agree with what you say, I'm finding all of these armchair experts very tiresome already.
It's like a nuclear bigoted Brexit. It's already got to the same stage with people googling for opinions that they agree with and representing them as fact whilst ignoring anything else.
Gotta say I really find it depressing. [Post edited 29 Mar 2020 12:15]
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:18 - Mar 29 with 1683 views | pointofblue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:55 - Mar 29 by Swansea_Blue |
No worries. Yes, to a large extent it seems the horse has bolted. There’s an interview with Germany’s leading ventilator manufacturer in Der Spiegel that talks about the chances of meeting demand for equipment and PPE (no chance). It’s not definitive, but interesting to hear his views on many talking points in this country, from whether non-specialist manufactures could help to meeting demand for masks. There’s even a nice display of the German temperament at the end when he discusses his own situation.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-ventilator-manufacturer-abso
They’ll need to be a thorough review of our (seemingly poor) readiness for this once it’s all over. That’s being picked up in the profession, although probably not the priority unless some quick lessons can be learnt to improve things on the front line easily/quickly.
Some interesting views on that here:
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Thanks.
What does “proper hygiene rules” mean in that Twitter post? Surely that’s a simple requirement for a health facility and, if it’s not possible, it should have been raised long before now. How much has been going under the radar as the media focused on other issues?
That’s an interesting interview with the German manufacturer and there’s a key point in there - there’s no point having ventilators if people cannot read them or understand the work it’s doing. Is the requisite number of staff available even if we do receive the available units? | |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:27 - Mar 29 with 1665 views | monytowbray |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:09 - Mar 29 by Lord_Lucan |
I tend to agree with what you say, I'm finding all of these armchair experts very tiresome already.
It's like a nuclear bigoted Brexit. It's already got to the same stage with people googling for opinions that they agree with and representing them as fact whilst ignoring anything else.
Gotta say I really find it depressing. [Post edited 29 Mar 2020 12:15]
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It’s reality I’m afraid. These are experts and have been predicting this for over a month. |  |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:30 - Mar 29 with 1653 views | Lord_Lucan |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:27 - Mar 29 by monytowbray |
It’s reality I’m afraid. These are experts and have been predicting this for over a month. |
You are the worse culprit.
I'm off to buy some toaster sized bread, I'll leave you to it. [Post edited 29 Mar 2020 12:31]
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:31 - Mar 29 with 1648 views | Guthrum |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:50 - Mar 29 by sparks |
True- but we really are a very long way down that list, given that we are 8th in the infections league table. |
Tho if you look at a table of positives per 1m population, we are a long way further down than 8th. |  |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:35 - Mar 29 with 1633 views | pointofblue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:31 - Mar 29 by Guthrum |
Tho if you look at a table of positives per 1m population, we are a long way further down than 8th. |
Though that could be down to our testing process. How many of those who are asymptomatic and with mild symptoms are going under the radar? We have no idea how many people actually have it. | |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:36 - Mar 29 with 1630 views | monytowbray |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:30 - Mar 29 by Lord_Lucan |
You are the worse culprit.
I'm off to buy some toaster sized bread, I'll leave you to it. [Post edited 29 Mar 2020 12:31]
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I’m not sure how one can politely say I’ve been worryingly saying this for at least 3 weeks. I’ve been abused, accused of “political point scoring” and god knows what else.
The writing was on the wall weeks ago and it is a complete failure of the powers that be, whilst they dress said failure up as some kind of heroic thought-out plan.
If we pull it off with minimal deaths then that’s the best outcome now, but let’s not dress this up as some kind of “Johnson the Martyr” success story. Any impact that lowered death, the real heroes are the scientists who have piled pressure on the government to take it a bit more serious.
The science never changed, they were just wrong. | |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:51 - Mar 29 with 1615 views | BloomBlue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:32 - Mar 29 by Radlett_blue |
Disagree. Testing policies are different for every country so this data muddies the waters. The only reliable statistic is deaths from the virus/million people as both of the variables are reliable and less subject to other forces, as long as we are sure that the virus was the cause.
The UK numbers are bound to get worse for the next week or so; this should not lead to panic measures. The tougher the measure you bring in, the greater the likelihood of a second surge and also the associated economic pain (which should not be ignored) will be greater. |
What I find interesting at the moment is why is Germany's death total so low especially as the number of cases is growing at a similar rate to other Countries.
I know all experts are saying CV is reaching differently based on demographics but Germany's death total is very low. |  | | |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:54 - Mar 29 with 1606 views | sparks |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:35 - Mar 29 by pointofblue |
Though that could be down to our testing process. How many of those who are asymptomatic and with mild symptoms are going under the radar? We have no idea how many people actually have it. |
That seems almost certain. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 13:08 - Mar 29 with 1583 views | GlasgowBlue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:36 - Mar 29 by monytowbray |
I’m not sure how one can politely say I’ve been worryingly saying this for at least 3 weeks. I’ve been abused, accused of “political point scoring” and god knows what else.
The writing was on the wall weeks ago and it is a complete failure of the powers that be, whilst they dress said failure up as some kind of heroic thought-out plan.
If we pull it off with minimal deaths then that’s the best outcome now, but let’s not dress this up as some kind of “Johnson the Martyr” success story. Any impact that lowered death, the real heroes are the scientists who have piled pressure on the government to take it a bit more serious.
The science never changed, they were just wrong. |
You’ve been accused of political point scoring because you have at various times posted that the Tories are using the virus to deliberately kill off the poorest in society, called for the government to be replaced and called in to question the professional integrity of both the CMO and CSA because they are in a “paid” position.
Every day it’s been “the evil Tories this and the evil Tories that”, constantly ignoring the fact that the same CMO and CSA would have been giving the same advice to the Prime minister, no matter what party was in power.
Any posters who have consistently said that they are listening to the advice of the CMO and CSA have been accused of following the “Tory party line”, despite the fact they haven’t been cheerleaders of either the Tories or Johnson on this issue.
Any genuine concerns that you may have been trying to raise has been buried under an avalanche of hyperbole and political point scoring.
I like you Callis and I don’t want to fall out with you over this, so I won’t bother conversing with you on this subject any more, but I think you have been an absolute fanny over this crisis. [Post edited 29 Mar 2020 13:32]
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 13:35 - Mar 29 with 1547 views | Guthrum |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 12:51 - Mar 29 by BloomBlue |
What I find interesting at the moment is why is Germany's death total so low especially as the number of cases is growing at a similar rate to other Countries.
I know all experts are saying CV is reaching differently based on demographics but Germany's death total is very low. |
Could be a number of reasons:
High testing rate of non-severe cases, meaning they are over-reporting infections compared with other places and the diagnosed with mild illness stand a better chance of survival.
Under-reporting of mortality, by being stricter on whether C-19 is a direct cause of death than other countries.
Something about Germany's medical system or their public health.
I'd say that the second of those is the most likely. | |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 13:47 - Mar 29 with 1538 views | monytowbray |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 13:08 - Mar 29 by GlasgowBlue |
You’ve been accused of political point scoring because you have at various times posted that the Tories are using the virus to deliberately kill off the poorest in society, called for the government to be replaced and called in to question the professional integrity of both the CMO and CSA because they are in a “paid” position.
Every day it’s been “the evil Tories this and the evil Tories that”, constantly ignoring the fact that the same CMO and CSA would have been giving the same advice to the Prime minister, no matter what party was in power.
Any posters who have consistently said that they are listening to the advice of the CMO and CSA have been accused of following the “Tory party line”, despite the fact they haven’t been cheerleaders of either the Tories or Johnson on this issue.
Any genuine concerns that you may have been trying to raise has been buried under an avalanche of hyperbole and political point scoring.
I like you Callis and I don’t want to fall out with you over this, so I won’t bother conversing with you on this subject any more, but I think you have been an absolute fanny over this crisis. [Post edited 29 Mar 2020 13:32]
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I see you’re still clinging onto my tongue-in-cheek eugenics comment as a solid statement.
Personally I see the “political point scoring” comment has become a wider social media deflection tactic among those who also say things like “Johnson is doing a great job”.
It’s the new SWERVE. | |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 14:22 - Mar 29 with 1508 views | BloomBlue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 13:35 - Mar 29 by Guthrum |
Could be a number of reasons:
High testing rate of non-severe cases, meaning they are over-reporting infections compared with other places and the diagnosed with mild illness stand a better chance of survival.
Under-reporting of mortality, by being stricter on whether C-19 is a direct cause of death than other countries.
Something about Germany's medical system or their public health.
I'd say that the second of those is the most likely. |
Good point it's just their death total is very low, maybe healthier in general is helping them recover and as you say the cause of death reporting could be different | | | |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 14:30 - Mar 29 with 1495 views | Lord_Lucan |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 13:35 - Mar 29 by Guthrum |
Could be a number of reasons:
High testing rate of non-severe cases, meaning they are over-reporting infections compared with other places and the diagnosed with mild illness stand a better chance of survival.
Under-reporting of mortality, by being stricter on whether C-19 is a direct cause of death than other countries.
Something about Germany's medical system or their public health.
I'd say that the second of those is the most likely. |
There was something on the news last night but I wasn't really paying attention however the bit I caught was explaining that approximately half those who have died were about to die anyway.
I presume all countries are experiencing the same rates of these instances and are reporting them in different ways. One is for sure, the world table simply doesn't ring true. | |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 14:36 - Mar 29 with 1481 views | pointofblue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 14:30 - Mar 29 by Lord_Lucan |
There was something on the news last night but I wasn't really paying attention however the bit I caught was explaining that approximately half those who have died were about to die anyway.
I presume all countries are experiencing the same rates of these instances and are reporting them in different ways. One is for sure, the world table simply doesn't ring true. |
I'm pretty sure I read a report that said, in Italy, they were recording deaths as Covid-19 related even if it wasn't Covid-19 itself which caused it. Other countries are only recording deaths which are specifically down to Covid-19.
If that makes any sense at all. | |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 15:57 - Mar 29 with 1445 views | Bluesquid |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 13:35 - Mar 29 by Guthrum |
Could be a number of reasons:
High testing rate of non-severe cases, meaning they are over-reporting infections compared with other places and the diagnosed with mild illness stand a better chance of survival.
Under-reporting of mortality, by being stricter on whether C-19 is a direct cause of death than other countries.
Something about Germany's medical system or their public health.
I'd say that the second of those is the most likely. |
"Under-reporting of mortality, by being stricter on whether C-19 is a direct cause of death than other countries."
Good point, i saw that in the US that if it was assumed that C-19 had caused or contributed to death then it was recorded as C-19 on the death certificate.
Not sure assuming is helpful here as it is unscientific and inaccurate and reminds me of the recent very sad and tragic case of the 21 year old girl where the Coroner assumed that C-19 was the cause of death but which the NHS disagreed with as she he had not tested positive for the disease.
Over inflating the numbers based on assumptions just gives the fear porn/click bait merchants in the media more to salivate and orgasm over. | | | |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 17:29 - Mar 29 with 1401 views | BlueBadger |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 08:40 - Mar 29 by Herbivore |
Shame we wasted a week messing about with the whole herd immunity thing. We lost some valuable time there. If the number of deaths continues to double every 2.5 days or so then we'll have over 32,000 deaths before the next fortnight is out. I can see why they're saying under 20,000 deaths would be a good result but it doesn't look all that likely to happen. |
Not to mention the whole of February pissing around not increasing supplies of all sorts of vital kit and staff. |  |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 17:54 - Mar 29 with 1377 views | Darth_Koont |
More a comment on the thread as a whole but I'll just take the opportunity to push this site again:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Not only is it excellent with the available data but it's also very clear about what is not yet known. As they say: "Even the best existing research and data is preliminary..."
There's no point arguing the toss about the spread of infection and how best to address it, not to mention the mortality rate, when that isn't fully understood without understanding the total infected population. The antibody test will hopefully fill in these massive gaps in our knowledge.
Depending on that, the lockdown could be lifted (outside London and other hotspots at least) or we're in for a longer period of isolation and avoiding contact.
Our chosen experts are right to err on the side of caution but I'm sure their models are changing daily with the data that comes in. |  |
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| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 19:12 - Mar 29 with 1322 views | gordon |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 17:54 - Mar 29 by Darth_Koont |
More a comment on the thread as a whole but I'll just take the opportunity to push this site again:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Not only is it excellent with the available data but it's also very clear about what is not yet known. As they say: "Even the best existing research and data is preliminary..."
There's no point arguing the toss about the spread of infection and how best to address it, not to mention the mortality rate, when that isn't fully understood without understanding the total infected population. The antibody test will hopefully fill in these massive gaps in our knowledge.
Depending on that, the lockdown could be lifted (outside London and other hotspots at least) or we're in for a longer period of isolation and avoiding contact.
Our chosen experts are right to err on the side of caution but I'm sure their models are changing daily with the data that comes in. |
Aren't the antibody tests still months away anyway, though? |  | | |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 19:20 - Mar 29 with 1308 views | StokieBlue |
| No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 19:12 - Mar 29 by gordon |
Aren't the antibody tests still months away anyway, though? |
Supposed to be next week or the week after last I saw.
SB [Post edited 29 Mar 2020 19:20]
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