| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday 07:36 - May 7 with 4388 views | bluelagos |
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| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:26 - May 7 with 675 views | StokieBlue |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 08:13 - May 7 by bluelagos |
The logic is that transmission is much more likely inside than outside. That sitting down and sunbathing or picnicing, whilst socially distancing from others, is close to nil risk.
Whilst the benefits to our mental health and wellbeing from being outside are tangible and real.
Assumes of course that people socially distance correctly. |
"Assumes of course that people socially distance correctly."
Which a lot won't. This will be seen as a free pass for people like NotSure to have their mates over and for groups of people to sit in the park drinking whilst being far closer than social distancing guidelines. They are already doing that and this will just loosen things even more. I do think you see the lockdown through a very rural view although that is understandable as that is where you live.
Perhaps there should be different rules for different areas?
I am slightly struggling to understand your attitude with regards to the lockdown though. One day you're all for easing the lockdown and another day you'll say perhaps the lockdown should have been stricter and forcefully imposed like in other countries.
I guess only time will tell if this is the right decision or not.
Enjoy your cycle, I haven't managed to get out for a few days now.
SB [Post edited 7 May 2020 9:27]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:31 - May 7 with 656 views | 26_Paz |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:16 - May 7 by sparks |
The death rates are not dropping nearly as markedly as it looked a week ago.
Other countries have increased testing significantly too- so the comparisons, whilst problematic, are still worthwhile- and clearly show us in a far worse light than other places which are starting to relax restrictions (which were far stronger in the first place). |
Due to the strange way rates seem to fluctuate depending on days of the week I've been looking at the corresponding day 7 days ago, e.g. today I'll look at last Thursday etc.
Yesterday - 649 deaths, the previous Wednesday (29th) 795, Wednesday 22nd 837 deaths, Wednesday 15th 842 deaths. So the rate of decrease seems to be increasing each week.
Figures from here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ |  |
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| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:33 - May 7 with 645 views | Bloots |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:16 - May 7 by sparks |
The death rates are not dropping nearly as markedly as it looked a week ago.
Other countries have increased testing significantly too- so the comparisons, whilst problematic, are still worthwhile- and clearly show us in a far worse light than other places which are starting to relax restrictions (which were far stronger in the first place). |
...show a decrease in deaths from last Wednesday of 18%.
The previous weeks decrease was 5%
The one before was 1%
Follow the trends, not the headlines. |  |
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| Agreed, you beat me too it. (n/t) on 09:34 - May 7 with 641 views | Bloots |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:31 - May 7 by 26_Paz |
Due to the strange way rates seem to fluctuate depending on days of the week I've been looking at the corresponding day 7 days ago, e.g. today I'll look at last Thursday etc.
Yesterday - 649 deaths, the previous Wednesday (29th) 795, Wednesday 22nd 837 deaths, Wednesday 15th 842 deaths. So the rate of decrease seems to be increasing each week.
Figures from here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ |
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| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:34 - May 7 with 648 views | NotSure |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:31 - May 7 by 26_Paz |
Due to the strange way rates seem to fluctuate depending on days of the week I've been looking at the corresponding day 7 days ago, e.g. today I'll look at last Thursday etc.
Yesterday - 649 deaths, the previous Wednesday (29th) 795, Wednesday 22nd 837 deaths, Wednesday 15th 842 deaths. So the rate of decrease seems to be increasing each week.
Figures from here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ |
This Google document backs that up ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KotABcStFc_B7usy6ukDAzB2_H0WdV8rLYtSVQ-b |  | | |
| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:35 - May 7 with 638 views | 26_Paz |
| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:33 - May 7 by Bloots |
...show a decrease in deaths from last Wednesday of 18%.
The previous weeks decrease was 5%
The one before was 1%
Follow the trends, not the headlines. |
Snap, we must have been typing at the same time! | |
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| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:36 - May 7 with 639 views | StokieBlue |
| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:33 - May 7 by Bloots |
...show a decrease in deaths from last Wednesday of 18%.
The previous weeks decrease was 5%
The one before was 1%
Follow the trends, not the headlines. |
The trend is specifically a function of the vectors for the virus being limited due to lockdown and thus the r0 falls below 1.
If the lockdown is lifted too early and distancing isn't respected (although that might not even be enough given surface transmission) then the vectors for the virus increase and thus the r0 increases and we get an uptick in infections.
I know we need to open up at some point but given we were stated to be at least 3 weeks behind Italy this looks early.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:39 - May 7 with 626 views | gordon |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:08 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue |
It’s telling that Rabb is doing tonight’s briefing. Johnson is definitely holding himself back for the grand announcement on Sunday. It’s all grandstanding. |
Absolutely, and by encouraging people to go outside, but maintaining that people must do so 'responsibly,' they'll be better positioned to shift the blame onto the public for overdoing it at the beer garden or barbecue as infections start to go up again.
The public are by and large in support of continuing the lockdown, it's just the fringe of the conservative party, the Telegraph, and a few twitter warriors like Toby Young and Peter Hitchins who have had enough.
And Boris must basically be bored by it all now, and just want to get back to designing pointless bridges and other important stuff. |  | | |
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| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:40 - May 7 with 617 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 08:06 - May 7 by bluelagos |
I'm not a golfer but struggling to see why it should be banned. The clubhouse is a different matter of course. |
Yes completely agree, I’m just being selfish as I like using the space! |  |
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| Don't get me wrong, I agree with you.... on 09:41 - May 7 with 621 views | Bloots |
| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:36 - May 7 by StokieBlue |
The trend is specifically a function of the vectors for the virus being limited due to lockdown and thus the r0 falls below 1.
If the lockdown is lifted too early and distancing isn't respected (although that might not even be enough given surface transmission) then the vectors for the virus increase and thus the r0 increases and we get an uptick in infections.
I know we need to open up at some point but given we were stated to be at least 3 weeks behind Italy this looks early.
SB |
….stay home, save lives.
But one of the issues we have is people stating facts that simply aren't true.
For Bully to state that the decrease isn't as fast as it was last week is not true (or erroneous or fallacious, as he'd say)
The decrease is faster than last week, which was faster than the week before.
Evidence, innit. | |
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| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:42 - May 7 with 620 views | gordon |
| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:36 - May 7 by StokieBlue |
The trend is specifically a function of the vectors for the virus being limited due to lockdown and thus the r0 falls below 1.
If the lockdown is lifted too early and distancing isn't respected (although that might not even be enough given surface transmission) then the vectors for the virus increase and thus the r0 increases and we get an uptick in infections.
I know we need to open up at some point but given we were stated to be at least 3 weeks behind Italy this looks early.
SB |
If we're talking about changing the parameters that determine the trend, then whatever the trend was is irrelevant, agreed. The key thing now is the absolute number of infections, and our capacity to manage them to the extent that we keep R less than 1 with our SERCO/Deloitte/NHSX public health infrastructure. | | | |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:43 - May 7 with 612 views | WeWereZombies |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 08:52 - May 7 by bluelagos |
Couple of points, not to dismiss what you have raised.
The graph showing the deaths are dropping but clearly not as fast as it rose. Anyone expecting a bell curve for deaths is not going to see it. It is clearly from the graphs presented (and I cant rememeber the name for the distribution from my college days) going to be drawn out, think of a drumlin shape.
If our drop off is not as fast as other countries (have not looked so am not disputing it) that would suggest our lockdown measures have not been as effective. That could be a whole load of factors from outside contact, to people having illicit parties etc. If could also of course be the care home numbers.
So again, not necessarily the reasons we immediately think of. Not to say you are wrong, but it could be other factors.
As for the govt trailing the good news, I think they are working on the "keep going, wont be long now" which may lead to more keeping with the lockdown as opposed to people giving up on it.
Will not defend the govt for maybe pushing political well being over the nations interests. They are politicians are have demonstrated self interest over the country's interests all their careers imho.
Off cycling so will leave the debate for now. |
I think you were looking for the term Poisson distribution (how have I never wedged that into one of the threads that descended into fish puns?), possibly with the proviso that it has a positive skew.
https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2017/09/6-probability-distributions-data-sc
Also describes my energy levels when I go out cycling (which I did for almost two hours yesterday, perhaps I joined the Black Rebel Bicycle Club)? |  |
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| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:45 - May 7 with 606 views | 26_Paz |
| The figures released yesterday.... on 09:36 - May 7 by StokieBlue |
The trend is specifically a function of the vectors for the virus being limited due to lockdown and thus the r0 falls below 1.
If the lockdown is lifted too early and distancing isn't respected (although that might not even be enough given surface transmission) then the vectors for the virus increase and thus the r0 increases and we get an uptick in infections.
I know we need to open up at some point but given we were stated to be at least 3 weeks behind Italy this looks early.
SB |
It might be too early, it might not, we don't know. We need to get the economy going sooner rather than later though, can't hide away forever.
As someone else has said the facts (I know that's a dirty word on here) were presented by me and a couple of other posters to point out that someone had made a statement that was completely untrue. | |
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| Don't get me wrong, I agree with you.... on 09:50 - May 7 with 589 views | gordon |
| Don't get me wrong, I agree with you.... on 09:41 - May 7 by Bloots |
….stay home, save lives.
But one of the issues we have is people stating facts that simply aren't true.
For Bully to state that the decrease isn't as fast as it was last week is not true (or erroneous or fallacious, as he'd say)
The decrease is faster than last week, which was faster than the week before.
Evidence, innit. |
It's nothing to do with evidence, it's just about trying to manage the news / public perception of what's going on.
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| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:53 - May 7 with 585 views | factual_blue |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 08:06 - May 7 by bluelagos |
I'm not a golfer but struggling to see why it should be banned. The clubhouse is a different matter of course. |
Based on the golfers I've met, the vast majority of them should be banned. |  |
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| Don't get me wrong, I agree with you.... on 09:55 - May 7 with 582 views | sparks |
| Don't get me wrong, I agree with you.... on 09:50 - May 7 by gordon |
It's nothing to do with evidence, it's just about trying to manage the news / public perception of what's going on.
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Indeed. It is essentially a pass for the bank holiday weekend- despite the government seemingly holding off on an announcement specifically to avoid that. |  |
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| Indeed, the media in this country..... on 09:58 - May 7 with 575 views | Bloots |
| Don't get me wrong, I agree with you.... on 09:50 - May 7 by gordon |
It's nothing to do with evidence, it's just about trying to manage the news / public perception of what's going on.
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….is a total disgrace.
Plus we have millions of armchair scientists/analysts that think it's acceptable to join them in spouting untruths and increasing both public fear and public complacency. | |
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| Don't get me wrong, I agree with you.... on 10:00 - May 7 with 570 views | gordon |
| Don't get me wrong, I agree with you.... on 09:55 - May 7 by sparks |
Indeed. It is essentially a pass for the bank holiday weekend- despite the government seemingly holding off on an announcement specifically to avoid that. |
Yep, loads of people don't really pay that much attention to the precise wording at the daily briefings or follow the Government twitter feeds, but will have seen the front page of the papers at a petrol station, or had an ad pop up on their Facebook, and will just assume it's basically fine to enjoy the weekend as normal now. | | | |
| Indeed, the media in this country..... on 10:01 - May 7 with 568 views | gordon |
| Indeed, the media in this country..... on 09:58 - May 7 by Bloots |
….is a total disgrace.
Plus we have millions of armchair scientists/analysts that think it's acceptable to join them in spouting untruths and increasing both public fear and public complacency. |
This has been leaked by the government deliberately to get these headlines, regardless of the consequences. | | | |
| Indeed, the media in this country..... on 10:05 - May 7 with 562 views | gordon |
| Indeed, the media in this country..... on 09:58 - May 7 by Bloots |
….is a total disgrace.
Plus we have millions of armchair scientists/analysts that think it's acceptable to join them in spouting untruths and increasing both public fear and public complacency. |
You are here claiming to be chief armchair scientist, in claiming to have the competence and knowledge to assess the validity of what millions of people are saying. | | | |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 10:05 - May 7 with 558 views | NewcyBlue |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 09:53 - May 7 by factual_blue |
Based on the golfers I've met, the vast majority of them should be banned. |
My local Jaguar Owners Club meets at a golf club. I can’t quite bring myself to go.
Shame, as I have a dashboard for an X250 that I used for spares, that I need rid of. |  |
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| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 10:06 - May 7 with 554 views | xrayspecs |
Some limited changes from Monday - with focus on continued caution to avoid a second peak.
Moving away from lockdown so that those who can travel to work and abide by existing distancing rules will be encouraged to do so. If companies are able to function by working from home, then this will continue to be encouraged too. So gradual reopening of the economy
The detail will be debated in parliament next week.
Seeking a UK wide agreement - so need to align with devolved administrations.
Expect a multi stage approach - schools to reopen June/July, bars and restaurants Aug/Sept - but still subject to strict social distancing rules.
Social distancing rules highly likely to be in place until end of year at least. |  | | |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 10:11 - May 7 with 541 views | xrayspecs |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 08:19 - May 7 by sparks |
That doesnt help. Because people are already ignoring and bending the rules and will do so more. To run a golf club you need facilities- toilets open, food and drink will follow, shops for supplies. People meeting up and driving around.
I would understand it if our figures were where other countries easing restrictions are. But we are STILL hovering at around 5000 new infections a day, and had 600+ deaths yesterday. The infections figure is not shifting- its creeping up if anything. Germany have just started relxaing things. Their new cases are on a clear downward curve and around 500 a day.
Spain- one of the worst hit... firm downward trend. New infections well below 3000 a day and still heading downards.
Our infection figures have been pretty much static for a whole month.... |
I believe that the flat lining in total deaths/infections is masking two big trends.
Falling transmission rates, hospitalisations and deaths in the general population but increasing rates among frail elderly in care homes. NHSE announced yesterday a further circa 330 deaths in hospital and the UK wide total figure in all settings was around double that. Suggests that deaths in care homes are an increasing proportion of total fatalities. | | | |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 10:13 - May 7 with 533 views | StokieBlue |
| Looks like picnics and sunbathing could be back on the agenda from Monday on 10:06 - May 7 by xrayspecs |
Some limited changes from Monday - with focus on continued caution to avoid a second peak.
Moving away from lockdown so that those who can travel to work and abide by existing distancing rules will be encouraged to do so. If companies are able to function by working from home, then this will continue to be encouraged too. So gradual reopening of the economy
The detail will be debated in parliament next week.
Seeking a UK wide agreement - so need to align with devolved administrations.
Expect a multi stage approach - schools to reopen June/July, bars and restaurants Aug/Sept - but still subject to strict social distancing rules.
Social distancing rules highly likely to be in place until end of year at least. |
"schools to reopen June/July"
Doesn't seem much point in this, mid July is the summer holidays anyway. Also hugely difficult for parents - businesses are going to want people in work but there is nowhere for the kids to go so they can't possibly be in work.
"Social distancing rules highly likely to be in place until end of year at least."
Some people aren't respecting those rules now in many cases, no way they will hold until the end of the year in the cities. I saw a number of families in someones front garden drinking champagne two days ago, all well inside the distancing rules. They didn't seem to have a care in the world.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Indeed, the media in this country..... on 10:16 - May 7 with 524 views | sparks |
| Indeed, the media in this country..... on 10:01 - May 7 by gordon |
This has been leaked by the government deliberately to get these headlines, regardless of the consequences. |
I dont think thats true.
I think this has been trailed- because they were legally obliged to review TODAY. They knew that if they announced relaxations prior to bank holiday, chaos would ensue so they have delayed until Sunday to stop people going all out at the weekend.
They were, however, stupid enough to not realise that what they have done will have almost the same effect- and perhaps worse, because people will be guessing and decidiing for themselves what relaxations should be applying... | |
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