| So we’re officially in a recession 07:14 - Aug 12 with 9572 views | Hipsterectomy |
Scary times ahead. |  |
| Walter Smith's Barmy Army |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:08 - Aug 12 with 5115 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:01 - Aug 12 by Herbivore |
Over a 13 week period even 1 week of lots of businesses essentially shutting down would impact on GDP for that quarter, especially as growth was looking fairly flat anyway. |
Indeed.
And the previous 4-6 weeks of bad headlines and economic uncertainty and UK tracked the spread of coronavirus across Europe. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:11 - Aug 12 with 5098 views | Herbivore |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:08 - Aug 12 by Marshalls_Mullet |
Indeed.
And the previous 4-6 weeks of bad headlines and economic uncertainty and UK tracked the spread of coronavirus across Europe. |
Not sure it was as long as that for most industries. It was probably affecting the markets for that length of time though. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:12 - Aug 12 with 5097 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:11 - Aug 12 by Herbivore |
Not sure it was as long as that for most industries. It was probably affecting the markets for that length of time though. |
Indeed.
The Italy situation was looking grave in early March, and that would doubtless impact on the markets and business strategy. | |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:24 - Aug 12 with 5072 views | Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:12 - Aug 12 by Marshalls_Mullet |
Indeed.
The Italy situation was looking grave in early March, and that would doubtless impact on the markets and business strategy. |
You seem to have spent the last handful of posts agreeing with Herbs who is making the same point as I am.
How baffling.
Given how we are seeing the service industry being opened as a massive driver right now, and that didn't lockdown (did any sector) until the very tail end of the quarter how do you explain the Jan-Feb portion and the fact that "talk of coronavirus" was not mathcing up with what the government were telling us?
None of what you've posted thus far seems to make any sense. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:27 - Aug 12 with 5067 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:24 - Aug 12 by Mullet |
You seem to have spent the last handful of posts agreeing with Herbs who is making the same point as I am.
How baffling.
Given how we are seeing the service industry being opened as a massive driver right now, and that didn't lockdown (did any sector) until the very tail end of the quarter how do you explain the Jan-Feb portion and the fact that "talk of coronavirus" was not mathcing up with what the government were telling us?
None of what you've posted thus far seems to make any sense. |
You said there was no talk of coronavirus between Jan and March.
I disagree.
There was lots of uncertainty re coronavirus, and the shutting down of the economy for a week in March would also have a huge effect. [Post edited 12 Aug 2020 9:30]
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:27 - Aug 12 with 5069 views | clive_baker |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 08:50 - Aug 12 by Marshalls_Mullet |
They were in Feb, and certainly in March.
Italy went into national lockdown in early March, and it was obvious that we would follow suit. We did so in mid March.
Covid 19 was certainly very much talked about in Q1. |
Covid killed Q1. My office and many others started wfh from 9th March, which was shortly followed by a strict lockdown. You can't lose 1/4 of the quarter and expect not to see a decline.
None of this news should be of any surprise to anyone though, and it's going to get worse before it gets better. A technical recession in the short term is one thing, but once the furlough scheme ends and we're staring down the barrel of millions more unemployed than this time last year, we really are talking about a long way to recovery. Years. Not to mention the fact the very thing that's caused it still remains a threat.
While Brexit's impact thus far is unquantifiable it would be naïve to think it won't also be adverse. 43% of all exports from the UK go into the EU, I would be surprised if tariff increases and general sentiment doesn't impact that trade and subsequent job creation in the UK. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:36 - Aug 12 with 5057 views | Dubtractor |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 07:27 - Aug 12 by Fixed_It |
And no-one will be able to blame Brexit. |
Well I guess there will be a benchmark in terms of our recovery from this compared to the rest of Europe. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:44 - Aug 12 with 5041 views | Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:27 - Aug 12 by Marshalls_Mullet |
You said there was no talk of coronavirus between Jan and March.
I disagree.
There was lots of uncertainty re coronavirus, and the shutting down of the economy for a week in March would also have a huge effect. [Post edited 12 Aug 2020 9:30]
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No, you said the first case was in January and intimated from there it was a downhill slope. It's pretty clear that the first 2/3rds of the quarter were very different to the month of March, and that final week in question was where the contention lied.
What I said was that the attitude change and late acceptance of the government appear to be the biggest factors in why the drop was so severe. That's very different.
You initially didn't seem keen to say when, why or how much of an effect would have taken place and are at cross purposes to put it mildly. I've not seen your edit, so can't comment on that.
However, to say one week of lockdown and three weeks of uncertainty kills our economy so badly in comparison to Europe is frightening and on the government no? Better leadership once again would have staved off so much of this damage surely? | |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:45 - Aug 12 with 5039 views | linhdi |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 07:30 - Aug 12 by Herbivore |
I honestly don't think the fact we're now officially in a recession - along with the rest of the world - really matters all that much at this point. |
But ours is a world-beating recession, twice as deep as any of our rivals! |  | | |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:47 - Aug 12 with 5027 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:44 - Aug 12 by Mullet |
No, you said the first case was in January and intimated from there it was a downhill slope. It's pretty clear that the first 2/3rds of the quarter were very different to the month of March, and that final week in question was where the contention lied.
What I said was that the attitude change and late acceptance of the government appear to be the biggest factors in why the drop was so severe. That's very different.
You initially didn't seem keen to say when, why or how much of an effect would have taken place and are at cross purposes to put it mildly. I've not seen your edit, so can't comment on that.
However, to say one week of lockdown and three weeks of uncertainty kills our economy so badly in comparison to Europe is frightening and on the government no? Better leadership once again would have staved off so much of this damage surely? |
I stated that the first case was in Jan. I didn't say that was when the impact kicked in.
You've invented your own narrative.
My previous post says it all. You stated there was no talk of coronavirus in Jan - March, and that was simply not true. | |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:51 - Aug 12 with 5017 views | Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:47 - Aug 12 by Marshalls_Mullet |
I stated that the first case was in Jan. I didn't say that was when the impact kicked in.
You've invented your own narrative.
My previous post says it all. You stated there was no talk of coronavirus in Jan - March, and that was simply not true. |
How many of us were sat about in January predicting this level of impact? If you can't see that was the point being made I'd suggest you've been making narratives and refusing to come round on them. The quarter runs from Jan - March, it'd be a bit odd for me not to acknowledge that.
The whole thread pretty much demonstrates that there was a huge escalation as is usual in a pandemic.
I don't think anyone read reports of the first case in January and thought we'd be here now in the UK did they? | |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:51 - Aug 12 with 5015 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:45 - Aug 12 by linhdi |
But ours is a world-beating recession, twice as deep as any of our rivals! |
You could almost make a case for that.
Potentially the countries who have suffered less of a decline did so because their pre-covid economy was weaker.
Not saying that's fact, just a hypothesis. | |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:54 - Aug 12 with 5008 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:51 - Aug 12 by Mullet |
How many of us were sat about in January predicting this level of impact? If you can't see that was the point being made I'd suggest you've been making narratives and refusing to come round on them. The quarter runs from Jan - March, it'd be a bit odd for me not to acknowledge that.
The whole thread pretty much demonstrates that there was a huge escalation as is usual in a pandemic.
I don't think anyone read reports of the first case in January and thought we'd be here now in the UK did they? |
You keep focussing on Jan for some reason... when you stated Jan-March.
I didn't say that it was a major issue in Jan, but it certainly was by March.
I think we need to agree to differ on this one. | |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:56 - Aug 12 with 5005 views | Herbivore |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:51 - Aug 12 by Marshalls_Mullet |
You could almost make a case for that.
Potentially the countries who have suffered less of a decline did so because their pre-covid economy was weaker.
Not saying that's fact, just a hypothesis. |
It's a strange hypothesis, especially as our economy flatlined in the final quarter of 2019. | |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 10:45 - Aug 12 with 4963 views | solomon |
This will be my third recession in my working life so far, times like these are a concern for all of us, the only advice I can give to those who are experiencing this for the first time is don’t loose hope, this will pass eventually. I know this is of no comfort to those who will inevitably fall through the cracks (sadly this has happened before and will happen this time too) the stress and anxiety can sometimes be too much to take, but keep holding on it will be ok. |  | | |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 11:33 - Aug 12 with 4922 views | longtimefan |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:54 - Aug 12 by Marshalls_Mullet |
You keep focussing on Jan for some reason... when you stated Jan-March.
I didn't say that it was a major issue in Jan, but it certainly was by March.
I think we need to agree to differ on this one. |
Not sure who’s argument they support but the actual monthly GDP index figures for the last few months are set out in the ONS report.
Dec. 105.3
Jan. 105.5
Feb. 105.5
Mar 98.2
Apr. 78.5
May 80.4
Jun. 87.3 | | | |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 11:36 - Aug 12 with 4915 views | J2BLUE |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 10:45 - Aug 12 by solomon |
This will be my third recession in my working life so far, times like these are a concern for all of us, the only advice I can give to those who are experiencing this for the first time is don’t loose hope, this will pass eventually. I know this is of no comfort to those who will inevitably fall through the cracks (sadly this has happened before and will happen this time too) the stress and anxiety can sometimes be too much to take, but keep holding on it will be ok. |
Good advice. Hopefully this doesn't sound patronising to any younger posters but now is also a good time to cut expenses, forego the mobile upgrade for a sim only deal and save as much as you can in case your circumstances change. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 11:54 - Aug 12 with 4878 views | solomon |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 11:36 - Aug 12 by J2BLUE |
Good advice. Hopefully this doesn't sound patronising to any younger posters but now is also a good time to cut expenses, forego the mobile upgrade for a sim only deal and save as much as you can in case your circumstances change. |
im Lucky enough to have come through the bad times and come out the other end, bruised battered and for a while a bit cynical about the world. I feel for those just starting out, those with young families, those less fortunate than myself at my stage of life, I’ve been there and it’s really important that we try to emotionally support those who are suffering. As you get older the cynicism you once had turns more to reason and pragmatism I suppose. | | | |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 12:00 - Aug 12 with 4863 views | hype313 |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 11:36 - Aug 12 by J2BLUE |
Good advice. Hopefully this doesn't sound patronising to any younger posters but now is also a good time to cut expenses, forego the mobile upgrade for a sim only deal and save as much as you can in case your circumstances change. |
Indeed, having been made redundant in 2008 and seeing the pain my parents went through in the early 90's with 15% interest rates I have acted accordingly, I got rid of my Car last week, paid of the finance and saved £250 a month, luckily my job means I work from home so I can do without that cost.
Now is the time to batten down the hatches. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 12:12 - Aug 12 with 4836 views | FenboyBlue |
Officially yes, but to be honest it never really felt like we came out of the recession that started in 2008. Perhaps they need to invent a new term for the ongoing period from 2008-2020 so far. |  | | |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 12:46 - Aug 12 with 4807 views | Herbivore |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 12:12 - Aug 12 by FenboyBlue |
Officially yes, but to be honest it never really felt like we came out of the recession that started in 2008. Perhaps they need to invent a new term for the ongoing period from 2008-2020 so far. |
Omnishambles? Catastrophuck? | |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 13:36 - Aug 12 with 4768 views | Swansea_Blue |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 12:46 - Aug 12 by Herbivore |
Omnishambles? Catastrophuck? |
Tory Government?
Anyway, it's not all bad news. This is apparently the deepest recession since the invention of Gross Domestic Product. Pretty cool fact that - World beating in fact. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 13:42 - Aug 12 with 4760 views | longtimefan |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 13:36 - Aug 12 by Swansea_Blue |
Tory Government?
Anyway, it's not all bad news. This is apparently the deepest recession since the invention of Gross Domestic Product. Pretty cool fact that - World beating in fact. |
Sorry - the Spanish beat us on that too.  | | | |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 14:10 - Aug 12 with 4726 views | Darth_Koont |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 08:49 - Aug 12 by GaryCooper |
The government feked it up and should be charged with manslaughter along with the NHS management for clearing the hospitals without test.
The current financial dilemma is being prolonged because of the earlier incompetence, it is arse covering time. |
Although the NHS management "cleared the hospitals" as it was under threat of being overwhelmed. We have removed extra capacity from the NHS over decades.
This is the result of squeezing resources and putting plasters over structural wounds. You can't cope with abnormal but not unexpected events and the only options left are bad ones. |  |
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| So we’re officially in a recession on 14:14 - Aug 12 with 4712 views | SpruceMoose |
| So we’re officially in a recession on 09:54 - Aug 12 by Marshalls_Mullet |
You keep focussing on Jan for some reason... when you stated Jan-March.
I didn't say that it was a major issue in Jan, but it certainly was by March.
I think we need to agree to differ on this one. |
Been a while since I've seen a genuine 'agree to disagree' in the wild! |  |
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"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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