| Thinking out loud.... 21:48 - Feb 13 with 6349 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
India population...1,393,409,038
India covid deaths...155,673
Uk population...67,610,000
Uk covid deaths....116,908
Is the real issue we need to address that we have a ridiculously unhealthy population fuelled on cr@p processed food? Oh and gross inequalities. |  |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 23:28 - Feb 13 with 1647 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Thinking out loud.... on 23:09 - Feb 13 by StokieBlue |
How are they presumptions? They are points which are relevant which you didn't mention in your opening post. It is perfectly right to ask whether you've considered them. Given you say you've considered them I think you've dismissed them far too eagerly.
Why would obesity be the issue when the majority of deaths in the UK have been in the older cohorts where obesity isn't likely to be the main factor?
Why no comments on the Indian doctors who say the death toll is at least 5 times higher?
You are certainly right to highlight the issues around diet and inequality in the UK but I don't think it's right to try and do that by shoehorning in things which don't seem to fully correlate. This whole thread just seems to be a way of saying people in the UK are fat which is a fair point but not sure why you have to link it to C19 or deaths in relation to other countries.
SB [Post edited 13 Feb 2021 23:10]
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Your presumption was that I hadn't considered them...you now presume that I have dismissed them.
Do you think that addressing the background health of our nation and the factors leading to it are worth considering?
You don't think that poor, old people in the UK can be fat too? | |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 23:40 - Feb 13 with 1643 views | NewcyBlue |
| Thinking out loud.... on 23:28 - Feb 13 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Your presumption was that I hadn't considered them...you now presume that I have dismissed them.
Do you think that addressing the background health of our nation and the factors leading to it are worth considering?
You don't think that poor, old people in the UK can be fat too? |
I think saying that we are an obese nation is the reason that we have higher Covid deaths is quite lazy. Certainly comparing it with India, and the poor of India too.
There are many factors at work, of a virus that we don’t fully understand. |  |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 23:46 - Feb 13 with 1630 views | StokieBlue |
| Thinking out loud.... on 23:28 - Feb 13 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Your presumption was that I hadn't considered them...you now presume that I have dismissed them.
Do you think that addressing the background health of our nation and the factors leading to it are worth considering?
You don't think that poor, old people in the UK can be fat too? |
I think you have absolutely zero data on the average weight of the older cohort who have died of C19 in the UK and thus you are just making stuff up to make a point which can easily be made without having to shoehorn C19 into the discussion at all.
It's a valid general point on the health and diet of the UK so why you felt the need to relate it to C19 and specifically C19 in India is pretty bizarre.
SB [Post edited 13 Feb 2021 23:48]
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| Thinking out loud.... on 23:57 - Feb 13 with 1611 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Thinking out loud.... on 23:46 - Feb 13 by StokieBlue |
I think you have absolutely zero data on the average weight of the older cohort who have died of C19 in the UK and thus you are just making stuff up to make a point which can easily be made without having to shoehorn C19 into the discussion at all.
It's a valid general point on the health and diet of the UK so why you felt the need to relate it to C19 and specifically C19 in India is pretty bizarre.
SB [Post edited 13 Feb 2021 23:48]
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And you have zero data to support your statement that it is not so and yet you do!
You seem as ever to be wilfully ignoring the op title. My thoughts as I say were merely started off this morning by watching the crowd at the cricket and then wondering what the covid situation was.
Heaven forbid that this forum should be used to share thoughts and ideas. I have an inkling that overall the diet of an average Indian is likely less processed than ours. We are what we eat and we eat a lot of sh1t...not in Stoke Newington though of course.
https://www.worldobesity.org/news/obesity-and-covid-19-policy-statement
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/obesity-fuelling-c [Post edited 14 Feb 2021 0:01]
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| Thinking out loud.... on 04:18 - Feb 14 with 1569 views | shady |
Very difficult to explain anything here in India.
As Churchill said it's the world's only functioning anarchy.
I see the numbers and it certainly perplexing.
Neither the government nor the citizens are known to be truthful.
Should you be tested positive for Covid here then you can't work.
Obviously fewer people are tested and even if they are positive they find a way
to continue their work(if they are not to ill)
Vaccination program is compromised, people don't trust it,
even the doctors are not getting jabs as one of the vaccines is still under clinical trial.
Rarely see masks, shared rickshaws and buses are packed.
Yes, first test match had no spectators for some political reason but
this second test, also in Chennai 15,000 allowed in.
The truth seems to be as the guardian article alludes to...
the larger cities have reached herd immunity. Yippee.
Most of the population is under 35 so less susceptible,
and a diet of pathogens from birth has helped their immune systems.
So official numbers may be doctored down somewhat;
however trends don't lie, and numbers really are falling.
Also funerals can be an indicator; and as each death is usually accompanied
by a raucous crowd it's easy to note that the death rate has not increased.
In our town there are no extra funerals.
By the way; don't for a moment believe that there is no junk food here.
Poor people can buy a packet of biscuits here for 5 pence.
you can imagine the esterified fats and assorted glup contained in them
(P.S. I eat them to)
Oh, don't take any of this as gospel, it could all go arse upward at any moment. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud.... on 08:30 - Feb 14 with 1524 views | StokieBlue |
It's not for me to prove the weight of the oldest cohort who are dying, you made the assertion this the burden of proof is on you to prove the correlation. Your article is interesting but it's not actually numbers on deaths in relation to obesity.
I just think you can make a valid point about the diet of the UK without needing to compare two totally different countries C19 deaths especially when one countries numbers look suspicious.
SB [Post edited 14 Feb 2021 8:37]
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| Thinking out loud.... on 08:33 - Feb 14 with 1521 views | StokieBlue |
| Thinking out loud.... on 04:18 - Feb 14 by shady |
Very difficult to explain anything here in India.
As Churchill said it's the world's only functioning anarchy.
I see the numbers and it certainly perplexing.
Neither the government nor the citizens are known to be truthful.
Should you be tested positive for Covid here then you can't work.
Obviously fewer people are tested and even if they are positive they find a way
to continue their work(if they are not to ill)
Vaccination program is compromised, people don't trust it,
even the doctors are not getting jabs as one of the vaccines is still under clinical trial.
Rarely see masks, shared rickshaws and buses are packed.
Yes, first test match had no spectators for some political reason but
this second test, also in Chennai 15,000 allowed in.
The truth seems to be as the guardian article alludes to...
the larger cities have reached herd immunity. Yippee.
Most of the population is under 35 so less susceptible,
and a diet of pathogens from birth has helped their immune systems.
So official numbers may be doctored down somewhat;
however trends don't lie, and numbers really are falling.
Also funerals can be an indicator; and as each death is usually accompanied
by a raucous crowd it's easy to note that the death rate has not increased.
In our town there are no extra funerals.
By the way; don't for a moment believe that there is no junk food here.
Poor people can buy a packet of biscuits here for 5 pence.
you can imagine the esterified fats and assorted glup contained in them
(P.S. I eat them to)
Oh, don't take any of this as gospel, it could all go arse upward at any moment. |
What are you thoughts on doctors in India who think the death rate is probably up to 5 times the official number?
Are excess death numbers published in India?
Herd immunity would need at least 75% of people to have had it and to get the the older people living in home with younger people would have been exposed. I'll look at some articles on that though as it's interesting but doesn't seem like it's possible from what we know about the virus.
SB | |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 09:36 - Feb 14 with 1483 views | shady |
| Thinking out loud.... on 08:33 - Feb 14 by StokieBlue |
What are you thoughts on doctors in India who think the death rate is probably up to 5 times the official number?
Are excess death numbers published in India?
Herd immunity would need at least 75% of people to have had it and to get the the older people living in home with younger people would have been exposed. I'll look at some articles on that though as it's interesting but doesn't seem like it's possible from what we know about the virus.
SB |
Really difficult to find good statistics.
there were a couple of reasonable sites but they've stopped updating
as conditions improved. Maybe funding cuts?
I don't think excess death numbers are published here.
We can certainly take official numbers with a lorryload of salt but as to death rate
being 5 times higher, I can only guess maybe twice as high?
Many country area just not giving out details,
they record deaths not their causes.
Some states fiddling numbers badly,
as no state wants to be at the foot of the league table.
However just from being here, it would appear that the people are just getting on
with their lives as though it's over, in our area at least.
Of course, subject to change.
Antigen studies have been published over the course of the pandemic and
trend is certainly that in some places over 60% have been exposed.
Truth is what works:
Even if only say 55% have been exposed, the fact is numbers are way down
Maybe we don't need 75% plus for herd immunity here.
I must add these high numbers of exposure only apply to the 10 most populous cities.
Also the median age here is 28.4, there are less oldies with their co-morbidities
so maybe herd immunity is easier to achieve?
Poor Kerala state has the best healthcare in the nation
but suddenly it's the worst performing state
Probably because it has the highest number of migrant workers in the gulf.
Many have returned home bringing their money and infected bodies.
I suspect there are more twists and turns to come. | | | |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 09:40 - Feb 14 with 1481 views | Bluespeed225 |
Can't point obesity out though, it's 'choice' and a 'lifestyle', and they are part of a 'community'. Wife is currently working on wards on release from office duties to help out, and it's there in plain sight, a real drain on the staff and resources. The irony being meal time, when it's custard and pud all round, no questions asked! |  | | |
| Thinking out loud.... on 10:12 - Feb 14 with 1473 views | GaryCooper |
| Thinking out loud.... on 21:50 - Feb 13 by chrismakin |
Isn't it just the fact that the majority of the UK pretty much stuck 2 fingers up at the goverment when it said stay at home
Plus the fact the government then told everyone to go eat out |
No it did not, you have fallen for the government propaganda that blames the public, instead blame an inadequate health service for the population size it serves. Blame "I'm still shaking hands" Johnson Or the fat over nourished entitled public. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud.... on 10:25 - Feb 14 with 1456 views | noggin |
| Thinking out loud.... on 22:13 - Feb 13 by jeera |
People who live outside next to open sewers don't tend to have access to McDonalds, no. |
No but they do have a cathedral and an international airport. |  |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 10:27 - Feb 14 with 1453 views | StokieBlue |
| Thinking out loud.... on 09:36 - Feb 14 by shady |
Really difficult to find good statistics.
there were a couple of reasonable sites but they've stopped updating
as conditions improved. Maybe funding cuts?
I don't think excess death numbers are published here.
We can certainly take official numbers with a lorryload of salt but as to death rate
being 5 times higher, I can only guess maybe twice as high?
Many country area just not giving out details,
they record deaths not their causes.
Some states fiddling numbers badly,
as no state wants to be at the foot of the league table.
However just from being here, it would appear that the people are just getting on
with their lives as though it's over, in our area at least.
Of course, subject to change.
Antigen studies have been published over the course of the pandemic and
trend is certainly that in some places over 60% have been exposed.
Truth is what works:
Even if only say 55% have been exposed, the fact is numbers are way down
Maybe we don't need 75% plus for herd immunity here.
I must add these high numbers of exposure only apply to the 10 most populous cities.
Also the median age here is 28.4, there are less oldies with their co-morbidities
so maybe herd immunity is easier to achieve?
Poor Kerala state has the best healthcare in the nation
but suddenly it's the worst performing state
Probably because it has the highest number of migrant workers in the gulf.
Many have returned home bringing their money and infected bodies.
I suspect there are more twists and turns to come. |
Thanks for the excellent reply.
SB | |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 10:28 - Feb 14 with 1452 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Thailand has a total population very close to ours, ( 69,950,850) 12% are over 65 (UK is 18%). They have had 79 covid related deaths which is one for every 80 recorded infections. Here we are running at about 1 death for every 35 positive tests. | |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 10:39 - Feb 14 with 1445 views | StokieBlue |
| Thinking out loud.... on 10:28 - Feb 14 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Thailand has a total population very close to ours, ( 69,950,850) 12% are over 65 (UK is 18%). They have had 79 covid related deaths which is one for every 80 recorded infections. Here we are running at about 1 death for every 35 positive tests. |
Indeed (although once again there are huge caveats around reporting and definitions). You've done it again though, can you clarify your point because just posted that means nothing and means everyone has to infer what point you are trying to make and then it always ends up with you saying we are presuming things and getting upset. We have to presume things if you don't make any points.
In Thailand people were already used to mask wearing, they banned international travel early and had a curfew for 3 months to go along with a harsher lockdown than the UK.
We probably should have implemented all those things here but can you imagine the meltdown if we had a curfew? People already complain about what is a pretty lax lockdown in global terms.
SB | |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 11:07 - Feb 14 with 1428 views | Meadowlark |
| Thinking out loud.... on 21:50 - Feb 13 by chrismakin |
Isn't it just the fact that the majority of the UK pretty much stuck 2 fingers up at the goverment when it said stay at home
Plus the fact the government then told everyone to go eat out |
This of course is the Tory government line.
"It's not our fault, it's you lot who are to blame"
Divide and rule. Set everyone against each other and walk away. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud.... on 11:10 - Feb 14 with 1424 views | Funge |
| Thinking out loud.... on 21:50 - Feb 13 by chrismakin |
Isn't it just the fact that the majority of the UK pretty much stuck 2 fingers up at the goverment when it said stay at home
Plus the fact the government then told everyone to go eat out |
'Isn't it just the fact that the majority of the UK pretty much stuck 2 fingers up at the goverment when it said stay at home'
What a load of b0llocks. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud.... on 11:16 - Feb 14 with 1409 views | 26_Paz |
| Thinking out loud.... on 22:41 - Feb 13 by StokieBlue |
I think the real issue we need to address here is a simplification of complex issues.
Have you considered the reporting of C19 deaths might be hugely different? Or that the government might not want the true number to be known? Have you taken into account that the average age in India is far lower than the UK? How have you attributed the high death toll in the UK to processed food? How have you attributed it to inequality given India is a country with huge inequality and a far lower average living conditions than the UK?
Nobody will disagree the UK has done very poorly indeed but a lot of countries numbers are "interesting". Only last month the Russian deputy prime minister messed up in a speech and suddenly the world knows they actually have the second most deaths in the world (nearly 3 times what they officially declare). I suspect they aren't the only country doing this.
Once again, we have done very poorly but just posting small soundbites like this really isn't any form of analysis or debate.
SB
Edit: A quick Google shows that dissenting doctors and experts within India put their C19 death toll at between 500,000 and 1m as of the start of December. Also worth noting our deaths have been hugely influenced recently by the new variant which they don't have. [Post edited 13 Feb 2021 22:46]
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I would be intrigued to see what India’s excess deaths are ... |  |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 11:24 - Feb 14 with 1409 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Thinking out loud.... on 10:39 - Feb 14 by StokieBlue |
Indeed (although once again there are huge caveats around reporting and definitions). You've done it again though, can you clarify your point because just posted that means nothing and means everyone has to infer what point you are trying to make and then it always ends up with you saying we are presuming things and getting upset. We have to presume things if you don't make any points.
In Thailand people were already used to mask wearing, they banned international travel early and had a curfew for 3 months to go along with a harsher lockdown than the UK.
We probably should have implemented all those things here but can you imagine the meltdown if we had a curfew? People already complain about what is a pretty lax lockdown in global terms.
SB |
It isn't a point, it is data...thank you for looking at it and coming up with some thoughts.
The only thought I would have is that there are grounds when looking at the deaths/cases to consider seriously looking at the background general health of nations. I strongly suggest that ours, as with America, is appalling.
An afterthought about inequalities, and deaths here disproportionately affect poorer socio economic groups, is that this would suggest that all things being equal the Indian death totals should be even higher. | |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 12:07 - Feb 14 with 1371 views | Churchman |
| Thinking out loud.... on 11:24 - Feb 14 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It isn't a point, it is data...thank you for looking at it and coming up with some thoughts.
The only thought I would have is that there are grounds when looking at the deaths/cases to consider seriously looking at the background general health of nations. I strongly suggest that ours, as with America, is appalling.
An afterthought about inequalities, and deaths here disproportionately affect poorer socio economic groups, is that this would suggest that all things being equal the Indian death totals should be even higher. |
I think there is far more to it than that. There are many factors involved, from basic immunity some countries have through exposure to SARS etc previously (along with tried and tested pandemic systems), to population density, family structures, age, lifestyle, culture and diet.
Then we come on to data. If you look at the raw figures of say deaths v known cases for example, we have one of the worst health services in the world. Twice as bad as India, Portugal and Turkey, worse than the US. I don’t think anyone would seriously think that’s the case. Different countries are measuring differently, if at all. In Mexico and Brazil, you don’t die of COVID, you die of anything but. There is a massive social stigma attached to the point where some medical staff dealing with C19 have been treated like lepers. The Guardian has plenty of interesting articles re Brazil in particular, where the situation is desperate.
How deaths are counted appear to vary wildly between countries and in the US case, between states. Maybe it’s because in some countries, testing is very limited that’s a factor. In the U.K. test figures show 1,189 per million, India 149k per million and Brazil 134k. At a guess, in a huge country like Brazil, you are going to pick up less cases than a small one like the U.K. Excess deaths is an interesting measure, but in the fullness of time, that’ll depend on honesty. Can anyone put faith in that when so much is at stake politically? You can scratch China, Russia for beginners.
In my view, the stats are all about politics. Things to pick and choose to suit the argument and to beat people with, sadly. The only actual value of them, when the basis of the calculation differs between countries as it does, is trend over time which is why when the infection rate began to climb in September I was disappointed the government didn’t bite the bullet Australian style and lock down immediately. [Post edited 14 Feb 2021 12:08]
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| Thinking out loud.... on 12:09 - Feb 14 with 1364 views | jeera |
| Thinking out loud.... on 23:07 - Feb 13 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Maybe this gets us back to the thing mentioned in Newcy's article about innate resistance due to high exposure to background viral loads. At the risk of sounding flippant I bet that they generally aren't fat either. |
People with limited access to food don't tend to be fat, no.
What's your point here Anthea? |  |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 12:09 - Feb 14 with 1360 views | monytowbray |
| Thinking out loud.... on 21:50 - Feb 13 by chrismakin |
Isn't it just the fact that the majority of the UK pretty much stuck 2 fingers up at the goverment when it said stay at home
Plus the fact the government then told everyone to go eat out |
The government didn’t tell them to stay home earlier enough and then opened things too early whilst sending everyone back to school.
The reinvention of history won’t happen here. TWTD never forgets. |  |
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| Thinking out loud.... on 12:25 - Feb 14 with 1323 views | stantheman |
| Thinking out loud.... on 22:48 - Feb 13 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Interesting read...thanks.
Jameel added: “This, together with better innate immunity as a result of high infectious disease load, is most likely the reason for a continuing decline in numbers.” |
Most probably people in the UK obsessing about using disinfectant on everything for the last 20+ years making us prone to bloody every bug that comes up now. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud.... on 12:29 - Feb 14 with 1319 views | Harry_Palmer |
| Thinking out loud.... on 09:36 - Feb 14 by shady |
Really difficult to find good statistics.
there were a couple of reasonable sites but they've stopped updating
as conditions improved. Maybe funding cuts?
I don't think excess death numbers are published here.
We can certainly take official numbers with a lorryload of salt but as to death rate
being 5 times higher, I can only guess maybe twice as high?
Many country area just not giving out details,
they record deaths not their causes.
Some states fiddling numbers badly,
as no state wants to be at the foot of the league table.
However just from being here, it would appear that the people are just getting on
with their lives as though it's over, in our area at least.
Of course, subject to change.
Antigen studies have been published over the course of the pandemic and
trend is certainly that in some places over 60% have been exposed.
Truth is what works:
Even if only say 55% have been exposed, the fact is numbers are way down
Maybe we don't need 75% plus for herd immunity here.
I must add these high numbers of exposure only apply to the 10 most populous cities.
Also the median age here is 28.4, there are less oldies with their co-morbidities
so maybe herd immunity is easier to achieve?
Poor Kerala state has the best healthcare in the nation
but suddenly it's the worst performing state
Probably because it has the highest number of migrant workers in the gulf.
Many have returned home bringing their money and infected bodies.
I suspect there are more twists and turns to come. |
Thanks for posting, some interesting insight there. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud.... on 12:50 - Feb 14 with 1306 views | Harry_Palmer |
It's a rather simplistic take banksy as others have suggested, however I do think that your basic point is a fair one in terms of the general health of the nation.
Diet obviously plays a massive part in regards to health but there are many other factors to also consider in terms of an all round healthy lifestyle and I think it's fair to say as a nation we have considerable room for improvement.
Of course even the healthiest of people can still become infected by Covid-19 but I think it's fair to say that you can greatly reduce your chances of a serious outcome if you eat a healthy diet, maintain a good weight, exercise regularly etc. especially in the younger age groups.
I am seeing more and more evidence of the importance of vitamin D in protecting against serious C-19 outcomes also, I wonder if a more outdoor lifestyle ( outside of the big cities ) and closer proximity to the equator could be having some effect on India's apparent good numbers? Like you, this is somewhat me thinking out loud, I have not looked into it but it would be interesting to see if there is a correlation between being closer to the equator ( or in a sunnier climate ) and lower numbers / better outcomes. [Post edited 14 Feb 2021 14:19]
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