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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election 18:15 - May 4 with 10837 viewspointofblue

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labou

It could be a case of trying to get the Labour vote out but pretty desperate stuff either way. If this does come to pass, how can a government which has shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze actually be gaining votes?

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 18:42 - May 4 with 2923 viewsbluelagos

The vaccination bounce I guess is putting a lot of people in a positive place. If it is that, it won't last all that long. Once the reality of the tough choices (cuts to services or rises in tax) that face the politicians, then the polling could be very different.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 18:54 - May 4 with 2897 viewstractordownsouth

It may well be a Tory win, but not by the margins some are claiming. I'd be surprised if there's much more than 1000 votes in it.

Like most by-elections, it will be won on turnout. That's particularly important considering the large number of Brexit Party votes in 2019 - I imagine more will go Tory than Labour but I'd wager that the majority will simply stay at home.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:09 - May 4 with 2857 viewsjas0999

It’s the success of the vaccine roll out. Simple as.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:13 - May 4 with 2822 views26_Paz

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:09 - May 4 by jas0999

It’s the success of the vaccine roll out. Simple as.


Not sure it’s solely that. Hartlepool is a big brexit supporting constituency, as someone else has mentioned there is a shed ton of Brexit party votes to be won. These will probably decide it. I’m not sure fielding a vocal remainer was the smartest move on Labour’s part.

The Paz Man

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:17 - May 4 with 2811 viewsgtsb1966

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:13 - May 4 by 26_Paz

Not sure it’s solely that. Hartlepool is a big brexit supporting constituency, as someone else has mentioned there is a shed ton of Brexit party votes to be won. These will probably decide it. I’m not sure fielding a vocal remainer was the smartest move on Labour’s part.


Talking of Brexit. I like this. I've been following this band for a while now. They've done some good stuff.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:30 - May 4 with 2767 views26_Paz

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:17 - May 4 by gtsb1966

Talking of Brexit. I like this. I've been following this band for a while now. They've done some good stuff.


Not sure that will do an awful lot to re-attract these disaffected voters.

The Paz Man

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:48 - May 4 with 2735 viewshype313

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:13 - May 4 by 26_Paz

Not sure it’s solely that. Hartlepool is a big brexit supporting constituency, as someone else has mentioned there is a shed ton of Brexit party votes to be won. These will probably decide it. I’m not sure fielding a vocal remainer was the smartest move on Labour’s part.


Indeed, why they fielded a remainer in a rabid Brexit town is pure stupidity.

Bit like bringing Sears on with ten to go hoping he will grab a winner.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:55 - May 4 with 2701 viewsTieDyedIn95

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:13 - May 4 by 26_Paz

Not sure it’s solely that. Hartlepool is a big brexit supporting constituency, as someone else has mentioned there is a shed ton of Brexit party votes to be won. These will probably decide it. I’m not sure fielding a vocal remainer was the smartest move on Labour’s part.


The working class have not connected with the new left in any meaningful way. Let's face it why would they? They are largely nationalistic, meat eating, anti-immigration, pro-traditions such as marriage and Monarchy, and aren't pro gender neutrality, gay rights, race rights and such as a whole. They are vehemently anti-"Woke" and this is them rejecting that rather than endorsing a Tory, most poor people are seeing them as the lesser of two evils, utterly insane, I agree, but if you take 10 minutes to talk to former Labour voters you'll easily hear why they wont vote for them again and sadly they have more in common with Enoch Powell these days then they do Tony Benn.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:58 - May 4 with 2681 viewsMattinLondon

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:30 - May 4 by 26_Paz

Not sure that will do an awful lot to re-attract these disaffected voters.


Will they have real concerns about the lyrics?
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:00 - May 4 with 2661 views26_Paz

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:58 - May 4 by MattinLondon

Will they have real concerns about the lyrics?


Probably just find them a bit patronising.

The Paz Man

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:09 - May 4 with 2652 viewstractordownsouth

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:55 - May 4 by TieDyedIn95

The working class have not connected with the new left in any meaningful way. Let's face it why would they? They are largely nationalistic, meat eating, anti-immigration, pro-traditions such as marriage and Monarchy, and aren't pro gender neutrality, gay rights, race rights and such as a whole. They are vehemently anti-"Woke" and this is them rejecting that rather than endorsing a Tory, most poor people are seeing them as the lesser of two evils, utterly insane, I agree, but if you take 10 minutes to talk to former Labour voters you'll easily hear why they wont vote for them again and sadly they have more in common with Enoch Powell these days then they do Tony Benn.


I’m from an area which is miles from the ‘red wall’ geographically, but is quite similar socioeconomically. While the stuff about the monarchy and migration largely rings true, I really don’t think the stuff about LGBT rights is what loses votes for Labour - it’s a massive stereotype. Most people don’t care about it either way, there tends to be a very strong live and let live attitude among all social classes. Because of course during elections, most Tories are very pro-LGBT. If it was a vote loser, they wouldn’t do that.

It just tends to be a narrative created by the Tory right after elections to justify their own views rather than based on any evidence. The polling shows the main reasons for 2019 were Brexit, Corbyn and concerns over the manifesto.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:12 - May 4 with 2633 viewsLord_Lucan

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:55 - May 4 by TieDyedIn95

The working class have not connected with the new left in any meaningful way. Let's face it why would they? They are largely nationalistic, meat eating, anti-immigration, pro-traditions such as marriage and Monarchy, and aren't pro gender neutrality, gay rights, race rights and such as a whole. They are vehemently anti-"Woke" and this is them rejecting that rather than endorsing a Tory, most poor people are seeing them as the lesser of two evils, utterly insane, I agree, but if you take 10 minutes to talk to former Labour voters you'll easily hear why they wont vote for them again and sadly they have more in common with Enoch Powell these days then they do Tony Benn.


Tony Benn and Enoch Powell of course were quite good friends actually.

I once was at an evening with Tony Benn at The Regent, he spent a lot of time drinking tea and explaining his luggage trolley / combined with seat invention.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:15 - May 4 with 2619 viewsitfcjoe

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:09 - May 4 by tractordownsouth

I’m from an area which is miles from the ‘red wall’ geographically, but is quite similar socioeconomically. While the stuff about the monarchy and migration largely rings true, I really don’t think the stuff about LGBT rights is what loses votes for Labour - it’s a massive stereotype. Most people don’t care about it either way, there tends to be a very strong live and let live attitude among all social classes. Because of course during elections, most Tories are very pro-LGBT. If it was a vote loser, they wouldn’t do that.

It just tends to be a narrative created by the Tory right after elections to justify their own views rather than based on any evidence. The polling shows the main reasons for 2019 were Brexit, Corbyn and concerns over the manifesto.


Think, anecdotally, a big problem Labour has is that the Tory sleaze line isn’t cutting through because there is a belief that ‘they are all the same’ and that is the greatest trick the Tories have pulled

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:21 - May 4 with 2592 viewstractordownsouth

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:15 - May 4 by itfcjoe

Think, anecdotally, a big problem Labour has is that the Tory sleaze line isn’t cutting through because there is a belief that ‘they are all the same’ and that is the greatest trick the Tories have pulled


Nationally the sleaze stuff has tightened the polls this week, but you’re right that there’s a lot of apathy, especially in Labour areas.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:24 - May 4 with 2579 viewsbluelagos

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:15 - May 4 by itfcjoe

Think, anecdotally, a big problem Labour has is that the Tory sleaze line isn’t cutting through because there is a belief that ‘they are all the same’ and that is the greatest trick the Tories have pulled


Spot on

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:44 - May 4 with 2527 viewspointofblue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:15 - May 4 by itfcjoe

Think, anecdotally, a big problem Labour has is that the Tory sleaze line isn’t cutting through because there is a belief that ‘they are all the same’ and that is the greatest trick the Tories have pulled


There’s another article on this in The Guardian which possibly could have a thread on it’s own.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/04/labour-tories-voters-keir-

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:44 - May 4 with 2528 viewsbluenorth

Just been discussing this with my in laws today, traditionally Labour voting from Hartlepool. Their view was that years of Labour rule don't seem to have got them much, and that being Conservative might get them more e.g. hospital services, government funding. They have 'excused' the lying and sleaze in the obvious ways, all the same, what politicians do etc. A very depressing conversation all round.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:07 - May 4 with 2463 viewsDarth_Koont

Maybe a blessing in disguise.

The Tories are sh!t but Labour haven’t shown anything better. A bloody nose gives them the chance to pull their finger out, while a win might tempt them to keep trudging down the same path towards irrelevance.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:11 - May 4 with 2445 viewsDarth_Koont

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:44 - May 4 by bluenorth

Just been discussing this with my in laws today, traditionally Labour voting from Hartlepool. Their view was that years of Labour rule don't seem to have got them much, and that being Conservative might get them more e.g. hospital services, government funding. They have 'excused' the lying and sleaze in the obvious ways, all the same, what politicians do etc. A very depressing conversation all round.


Whoever’s been in government has made little difference in Hartlepool and probably most of the rest of the UK too.

That sort of meaningless politics is what opens the door wide for populism and nationalism.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:14 - May 4 with 2423 viewsLeaky

Because the alternatives are crap.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:21 - May 4 with 2376 views26_Paz

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:44 - May 4 by pointofblue

There’s another article on this in The Guardian which possibly could have a thread on it’s own.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/04/labour-tories-voters-keir-


That is a really, really interesting article.

The Paz Man

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:24 - May 4 with 2361 viewsNthsuffolkblue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:48 - May 4 by hype313

Indeed, why they fielded a remainer in a rabid Brexit town is pure stupidity.

Bit like bringing Sears on with ten to go hoping he will grab a winner.


Maybe the reasoning was that the Brexit argument is done and dusted. I assume the candidate is not advocating rejoining the EU.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:27 - May 4 with 2337 viewsDarth_Koont

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:44 - May 4 by pointofblue

There’s another article on this in The Guardian which possibly could have a thread on it’s own.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/04/labour-tories-voters-keir-


Rafael Behr who is 10 years behind the times accusing Labour of being 20 years behind the times.

Meanwhile the Tories are prehistoric and get on with it.

Have I ever mentioned how crap our politicians and political “journalists” are?
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:37 - May 4 with 2305 viewspointofblue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:27 - May 4 by Darth_Koont

Rafael Behr who is 10 years behind the times accusing Labour of being 20 years behind the times.

Meanwhile the Tories are prehistoric and get on with it.

Have I ever mentioned how crap our politicians and political “journalists” are?


No, can’t say I’ve spotted you mentioning that.

Seriously, for whatever reason the sleaze allegations are not cutting through at the moment and whilst the pressure needs to be maintained on Johnson over that, Labour need to present a clear vision for the country which they are not doing at the moment.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:44 - May 4 with 2285 viewsDarth_Koont

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:37 - May 4 by pointofblue

No, can’t say I’ve spotted you mentioning that.

Seriously, for whatever reason the sleaze allegations are not cutting through at the moment and whilst the pressure needs to be maintained on Johnson over that, Labour need to present a clear vision for the country which they are not doing at the moment.


Problem is that the technocratic Labour politicians that fill the PLP and are typified by someone like Starmer really do stand for power, influence and money. Which makes them indistinguishable from the Tories.

I’d like to see politicians who have a vision and principles for the country rather than for themselves. Call me old-fashioned.
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