| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:40 - May 6 with 1550 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:40 - May 5 by tractordownsouth |
If Kerry Ann Mendoza or Aaron Bastani had been the candidate then the majority would be 10k+.
Def info. |
Well if this doesn’t motivate the people of Hartlepool to get out and vote Labour then nothing will.
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:57 - May 6 with 1510 views | Darth_Koont |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:40 - May 6 by GlasgowBlue |
Well if this doesn’t motivate the people of Hartlepool to get out and vote Labour then nothing will.
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Harsh. She’s discussing political theory which is what she writes about.
Looks like it was Ian Austin who originally stripped it of its context to score a cheap political point. Which is entirely his context. The only political question he’s ever asked is, “What’s in it for Ian Austin?” |  |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:20 - May 6 with 1466 views | giant_stow |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:40 - May 6 by GlasgowBlue |
Well if this doesn’t motivate the people of Hartlepool to get out and vote Labour then nothing will.
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The campaign for plain English would have her for breakfast. Does this count as ironic even? (I'm scared of using that word) |  |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:38 - May 6 with 1441 views | Darth_Koont |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:20 - May 6 by giant_stow |
The campaign for plain English would have her for breakfast. Does this count as ironic even? (I'm scared of using that word) |
Some people’s responses to this tweet and thread are making her point for her. It’s an educated point of view, certainly. But never anything to do with a doorstep conversation.
Nevertheless it’s asking an interesting question: why is education sneered at by many? Just like “woke” is also a term of abuse when it’s about being informed and aware of issues affecting others? | |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:55 - May 6 with 1402 views | giant_stow |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:38 - May 6 by Darth_Koont |
Some people’s responses to this tweet and thread are making her point for her. It’s an educated point of view, certainly. But never anything to do with a doorstep conversation.
Nevertheless it’s asking an interesting question: why is education sneered at by many? Just like “woke” is also a term of abuse when it’s about being informed and aware of issues affecting others? |
I'm just relieved you haven't pulled me on 'ironic'. I think i actually agree with her. At least I would say that non-academic intelligence and skills are generally sneered at and undervalued. [Post edited 6 May 2021 9:02]
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:56 - May 6 with 1397 views | giant_stow |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:38 - May 6 by Darth_Koont |
Some people’s responses to this tweet and thread are making her point for her. It’s an educated point of view, certainly. But never anything to do with a doorstep conversation.
Nevertheless it’s asking an interesting question: why is education sneered at by many? Just like “woke” is also a term of abuse when it’s about being informed and aware of issues affecting others? |
Double post [Post edited 6 May 2021 8:57]
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:20 - May 6 with 1366 views | tractordownsouth |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:57 - May 6 by Darth_Koont |
Harsh. She’s discussing political theory which is what she writes about.
Looks like it was Ian Austin who originally stripped it of its context to score a cheap political point. Which is entirely his context. The only political question he’s ever asked is, “What’s in it for Ian Austin?” |
FWIW I think Austin's an arsehole too. |  |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:27 - May 6 with 1342 views | Darth_Koont |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:20 - May 6 by tractordownsouth |
FWIW I think Austin's an arsehole too. |
And FWIW I don’t see Austin as a yardstick for the Labour right. He’s in a different universe of arseholishness. | |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:09 - May 7 with 1254 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 18:54 - May 4 by tractordownsouth |
It may well be a Tory win, but not by the margins some are claiming. I'd be surprised if there's much more than 1000 votes in it.
Like most by-elections, it will be won on turnout. That's particularly important considering the large number of Brexit Party votes in 2019 - I imagine more will go Tory than Labour but I'd wager that the majority will simply stay at home. |
7000 majority. | |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:15 - May 7 with 1233 views | Mookamoo |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:09 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue |
7000 majority. |
Thats astounding. We really are going to have 10 years of Boris. |  | | |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:19 - May 7 with 1225 views | tractordownsouth |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:09 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue |
7000 majority. |
My US politics predictions are always better than the UK! Very disappointing though. We’ll wait to see what the reasons are for the defeat of course, but hopefully this will cause some change in strategy for Starmer. Victim of circumstance to some extent (like Corbyn was with Brexit a little bit) but as I’ve said before, if you don’t accept responsibility you don’t learn anything. | |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:21 - May 7 with 1214 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:15 - May 7 by Mookamoo |
Thats astounding. We really are going to have 10 years of Boris. |
16% swing from Labour to Tory. The biggest swing to government party in a by-election in living memory. Governments rarely hold seats in mid term by-elections, let alone win them. | |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:27 - May 7 with 1191 views | Leaky |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 20:12 - May 4 by Lord_Lucan |
Tony Benn and Enoch Powell of course were quite good friends actually.
I once was at an evening with Tony Benn at The Regent, he spent a lot of time drinking tea and explaining his luggage trolley / combined with seat invention. |
I think both were not lovers of the EU. |  | | |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:30 - May 7 with 1184 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:19 - May 7 by tractordownsouth |
My US politics predictions are always better than the UK! Very disappointing though. We’ll wait to see what the reasons are for the defeat of course, but hopefully this will cause some change in strategy for Starmer. Victim of circumstance to some extent (like Corbyn was with Brexit a little bit) but as I’ve said before, if you don’t accept responsibility you don’t learn anything. |
When do you expect the Corbyn wing to launch a leadership challenge? And who will the stalking horse be? Ian Lavery? | |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:37 - May 7 with 1151 views | mutters |
When will the labour party realise how wrong they have got it in recent years? They are not connecting with the voters and are at risk of being adrift for the next 2 general elections at least. This feels very akin to the Conservatives in the late 90s/00s. |  |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:38 - May 7 with 1145 views | tractordownsouth |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:30 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue |
When do you expect the Corbyn wing to launch a leadership challenge? And who will the stalking horse be? Ian Lavery? |
Lloyd Russell Moyle already had a pop after the first council result. You can always spot a true socialist by how delighted they are at Tory wins!
On a serious note though, I doubt any of them has the balls to do it. Even disregarding the policy disagreements, I don’t think they have a strong enough figure to get anything close to 50% of the membership vote. They may not even get 40 MPs to nominate them. | |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:39 - May 7 with 1144 views | chicoazul |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:15 - May 7 by Mookamoo |
Thats astounding. We really are going to have 10 years of Boris. |
I don’t know why anyone ever imagined otherwise. As someone very wise put on that big sign the other day; Boris is a fat Tony Blair. |  |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:46 - May 7 with 1112 views | Plums |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:21 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue |
16% swing from Labour to Tory. The biggest swing to government party in a by-election in living memory. Governments rarely hold seats in mid term by-elections, let alone win them. |
It’s quite astonishing. I was driving back from football and ‘admiring’ the state of the roads and wondering to myself what measure people are using to consider this country as ‘well run’. It’s literally falling apart at the seams and yet the architects get re-elected time after time. |  |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:00 - May 7 with 1080 views | mikeybloo88 |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 18:54 - May 4 by tractordownsouth |
It may well be a Tory win, but not by the margins some are claiming. I'd be surprised if there's much more than 1000 votes in it.
Like most by-elections, it will be won on turnout. That's particularly important considering the large number of Brexit Party votes in 2019 - I imagine more will go Tory than Labour but I'd wager that the majority will simply stay at home. |
Got any racing tips for the weekend? |  | | |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:02 - May 7 with 1067 views | HARRY10 |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:39 - May 7 by chicoazul |
I don’t know why anyone ever imagined otherwise. As someone very wise put on that big sign the other day; Boris is a fat Tony Blair. |
There'll be a huge sigh of relief in the Labour camp this morning - with the memory of 1992's election defeat still carrying a very strong warning. Within a few months of the election, the economy collapsed and the U had to withdraw from the ERM.
Once again the Tories had been let loose ans way before the election their ability to cock things up was already in motion. aoanly this time they were left carrying the baby, so to speak. A labour win and it would have been them blamed.
It might explain why they stood an avowed pro EU man as the candidate, in a constiuenc that might be known for many things, but reasoned argument is not one of those, as
"Outside the town’s Mill House Leisure Centre where the count was taking place, a local group calling themselves the Hartlepool Wombles installed a massive inflatable of Boris Johnson. It stood there, taller than the pub it was anchored to, its thumbs up. “If he can get this town moving again, he’ll do me,” said landlord Taffy Turner.
You don't need to be the brightest to grasp the huge flaw in that nonsense, but as with the fishermen in Cornwall and now Hull it will only be through the hardest of hard lessons that reality finally sinks in - though even then I don't doubt for some it will be Labour's fault for not stopping the Tories from acting like Tories
plus ça change |  | | |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:02 - May 7 with 1067 views | Herbivore |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:46 - May 7 by Plums |
It’s quite astonishing. I was driving back from football and ‘admiring’ the state of the roads and wondering to myself what measure people are using to consider this country as ‘well run’. It’s literally falling apart at the seams and yet the architects get re-elected time after time. |
Feels not reals. We have government by perception management. |  |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:03 - May 7 with 1062 views | Herbivore |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:15 - May 7 by Mookamoo |
Thats astounding. We really are going to have 10 years of Boris. |
At least another 10 years of the Tories. To be honest the system is so rigged we risk becoming a one party state at this rate. Johnson on the other hand won't last that long, his own party will bring him down. | |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:17 - May 7 with 1037 views | StokieBlue |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:30 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue |
When do you expect the Corbyn wing to launch a leadership challenge? And who will the stalking horse be? Ian Lavery? |
They have been all over it already this morning.
There is context here but it will be ignored, people voted with the vaccine rollout and pandemic in mind whereas the Labour left seem to think that people voted about policies and there are calls to go back to the manifesto which saw Labour utterly destroyed.
Policies were irrelevant to many who voted yesterday unfortunately.
SB |  | | |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:25 - May 7 with 1014 views | Pinewoodblue |
The original post, to my mind, highlights the biggest problem.
The question asked is “ how can a government which has shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze actually be gaining votes?”
It is the wrong question. It should be how can an opposition party, faced with a government which had shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze, fail so miserably that it manages to lose a seat that they have held comfortably since it was created.
There is zero chance of a Labour government until they are worthy of the support of the electorate. Any other conclusion is the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.
Before the usual suspects start blaming everyone, apart from themselves, they need to ask if they have been doing enough to change things. Moaning doesn’t count. |  |
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| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:29 - May 7 with 998 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:17 - May 7 by StokieBlue |
They have been all over it already this morning.
There is context here but it will be ignored, people voted with the vaccine rollout and pandemic in mind whereas the Labour left seem to think that people voted about policies and there are calls to go back to the manifesto which saw Labour utterly destroyed.
Policies were irrelevant to many who voted yesterday unfortunately.
SB |
They also need to remember that had the Brexit Party not stood in Hartlepool in 2019 they would have lost the seat back then under Corbyn.
Edit. Typed UKIP rather than Brexit Party. [Post edited 7 May 2021 9:01]
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