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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election 18:15 - May 4 with 13529 viewspointofblue

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labou

It could be a case of trying to get the Labour vote out but pretty desperate stuff either way. If this does come to pass, how can a government which has shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze actually be gaining votes?

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:41 - May 7 with 866 viewsBlueNomad

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:25 - May 7 by Pinewoodblue

The original post, to my mind, highlights the biggest problem.

The question asked is “ how can a government which has shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze actually be gaining votes?”

It is the wrong question. It should be how can an opposition party, faced with a government which had shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze, fail so miserably that it manages to lose a seat that they have held comfortably since it was created.

There is zero chance of a Labour government until they are worthy of the support of the electorate. Any other conclusion is the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.

Before the usual suspects start blaming everyone, apart from themselves, they need to ask if they have been doing enough to change things. Moaning doesn’t count.


It seems incompetence, sleaze, corruption, cronyism, nationalism and general nastiness (via Patel et al) is now the way to go. A significant proportion of the population don't care because they thing the buffoon is "a laugh" and they wouldn't actually recognise any of the others.

These are sad, worrying times.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:44 - May 7 with 851 viewsHARRY10

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:29 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue

They also need to remember that had the Brexit Party not stood in Hartlepool in 2019 they would have lost the seat back then under Corbyn.

Edit. Typed UKIP rather than Brexit Party.
[Post edited 7 May 2021 9:01]


More made up stuff as that presumes all UKIP supporters were Tory supporters
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:45 - May 7 with 850 viewsHerbivore

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:29 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue

They also need to remember that had the Brexit Party not stood in Hartlepool in 2019 they would have lost the seat back then under Corbyn.

Edit. Typed UKIP rather than Brexit Party.
[Post edited 7 May 2021 9:01]


This is true, if you add the Brexit Party votes to the Tory vote from 2019 then you have 7000 more votes than Labour achieved. The Tories have hoovered up the Brexit Party voters in this by election, which is hardly a surprise given the two were virtually indistinguishable anyway.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:46 - May 7 with 842 viewsPinewoodblue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:41 - May 7 by BlueNomad

It seems incompetence, sleaze, corruption, cronyism, nationalism and general nastiness (via Patel et al) is now the way to go. A significant proportion of the population don't care because they thing the buffoon is "a laugh" and they wouldn't actually recognise any of the others.

These are sad, worrying times.


Not sure what the turnout was but pretty sure that more people didn’t vote than voted conservative. If you can’t get your support to go out and vote, or apply for and complete a postal vote you can’t expect to win.

Remember elections are only won because someone else failed to avoid losing.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:47 - May 7 with 834 viewsm14_blue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:44 - May 7 by HARRY10

More made up stuff as that presumes all UKIP supporters were Tory supporters


You disagree with that?

Seems a fairly safe assumption to me.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:48 - May 7 with 834 viewstractordownsouth

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:00 - May 7 by mikeybloo88

Got any racing tips for the weekend?


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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:49 - May 7 with 827 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:17 - May 7 by StokieBlue

They have been all over it already this morning.

There is context here but it will be ignored, people voted with the vaccine rollout and pandemic in mind whereas the Labour left seem to think that people voted about policies and there are calls to go back to the manifesto which saw Labour utterly destroyed.

Policies were irrelevant to many who voted yesterday unfortunately.

SB


Any evidence to back that claim up Stokie?

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:52 - May 7 with 806 viewsHARRY10

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:25 - May 7 by Pinewoodblue

The original post, to my mind, highlights the biggest problem.

The question asked is “ how can a government which has shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze actually be gaining votes?”

It is the wrong question. It should be how can an opposition party, faced with a government which had shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze, fail so miserably that it manages to lose a seat that they have held comfortably since it was created.

There is zero chance of a Labour government until they are worthy of the support of the electorate. Any other conclusion is the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.

Before the usual suspects start blaming everyone, apart from themselves, they need to ask if they have been doing enough to change things. Moaning doesn’t count.


Pointing out lies, is now considered moaning !

And if the Tories have been elected on the basis of some of the electorate wanting to be lied to, then what are the others to do. Tell even bigger lies ?

You have voters who have openly expressed that they won't vote Labour, as Labour did not work hard enough to stop the local economy from slipping............. so they voted for those responsible for that slipping economy.

And you are bleating that about whether Labour had been doing enough to change things ! ! !

"Now Mr Bushy Tail Fox you aren't too happy with the way Labour has not stopped the Tory huntsmen from ripping your family and others apart, so to punish them ...........you are going to support the Tory huntsman"
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:57 - May 7 with 786 viewsHerbivore

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:41 - May 7 by BlueNomad

It seems incompetence, sleaze, corruption, cronyism, nationalism and general nastiness (via Patel et al) is now the way to go. A significant proportion of the population don't care because they thing the buffoon is "a laugh" and they wouldn't actually recognise any of the others.

These are sad, worrying times.


Pinewood's post is quite telling and it echoes with something I was thinking about yesterday. The Tories don't seem to actually have to do anything positive to secure a vote. You see it on here, Tory voters constantly ask "what is the alternative?" rather than offering positive reasons for voting Tory. It's almost like in the English psyche a vote for the Tories is a default position unless you are convinced otherwise. And why wouldn't that be the case? I turn 40 this year and we've had Tory governments for just under three quarters of my life, most of them utterly awful and divisive. We have a press that is predominantly right-wing and vocally Tory-supporting. That is only getting worse with what's going on at the BBC.

Other parties are expected to offer an awful lot more in order to win votes. That's fine to an extent, but when they do offer more, or at least something different, the Tory media goes into attack mode to undermine that alternative. So what can the other parties do when they have to work twice as hard to win votes and don't have the powerful media in their pocket to get their message through?

I don't really have an answer to be honest, other than that the country looks pretty fooked. Most people don't really care about politics these days and even many of this who do treat it as being like supporting a football team. That suits the Tories down to the ground, they don't want a politically conscious electorate on their hands and if it comes down to a popularity contest they are much better at populism than Labour are.

They are also able to dominate the right and centre right in a way that no one party is doing in the centre and left of centre. Non-Tory voters are fractured and spread out across a number of parties. Now Brexit is done, there's nobody to take votes off the Tories on that side of the political spectrum. All very depressing really. We've had 10+ years of the Tories dividing and destroying the country and yet they seem to grow in popularity. The country has lost its head.
[Post edited 7 May 2021 9:00]

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:03 - May 7 with 744 viewsStokieBlue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:49 - May 7 by BanksterDebtSlave

Any evidence to back that claim up Stokie?


Which part?

For the first part, virtually every interview I saw in Hartlepool with the general public cited the vaccine rollout before they mentioned anything else. It was clearly a massive thing.

For the second part, just look at the size of the Tory majority for your answer.

Given you don't seem to agree, what do you think were the causes of the heavy defeat?

SB

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:09 - May 7 with 724 viewsGlasgowBlue

Just something I noticed. Why is the Tory candidate the only person wearing a face mask? Surely they should all have one in whilst standing indoors?



Not a political point. Just found it odd.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:09 - May 7 with 720 viewsTieDyedIn95

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:03 - May 7 by StokieBlue

Which part?

For the first part, virtually every interview I saw in Hartlepool with the general public cited the vaccine rollout before they mentioned anything else. It was clearly a massive thing.

For the second part, just look at the size of the Tory majority for your answer.

Given you don't seem to agree, what do you think were the causes of the heavy defeat?

SB


The working class's absolute rejection of the Labour Party in England. In some areas you could literally have the blue rosette on the ballot now. Labour have to drop the London-centric New Left politics and get back to the issues the poor are actually interested in.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:10 - May 7 with 720 viewsPinewoodblue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:52 - May 7 by HARRY10

Pointing out lies, is now considered moaning !

And if the Tories have been elected on the basis of some of the electorate wanting to be lied to, then what are the others to do. Tell even bigger lies ?

You have voters who have openly expressed that they won't vote Labour, as Labour did not work hard enough to stop the local economy from slipping............. so they voted for those responsible for that slipping economy.

And you are bleating that about whether Labour had been doing enough to change things ! ! !

"Now Mr Bushy Tail Fox you aren't too happy with the way Labour has not stopped the Tory huntsmen from ripping your family and others apart, so to punish them ...........you are going to support the Tory huntsman"


Labour is in for a hiding across the country, look at Redditch, one of the first local election results to come in. A total disaster.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/redditch-local-election-results-2

If a party alienates its traditional support it is never going to win anything.

Back in the 60’s, when I was too young to vote, I will still able to do my bit on election night, and in the days leading up to it. Offering my services to deliver election literature and on the day collecting known Labour voters and driving them too and from the polling station. Commenting on social media isn’t doing something positive to achieve the outcome you want.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:16 - May 7 with 707 viewsStokieBlue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:09 - May 7 by TieDyedIn95

The working class's absolute rejection of the Labour Party in England. In some areas you could literally have the blue rosette on the ballot now. Labour have to drop the London-centric New Left politics and get back to the issues the poor are actually interested in.


Not sure that makes any sense though as the Tories don't really address the issues that "the poor" should be interested in either. In fact you could easily make a case that the Labour policies do far more for the poor than any of the Tory policies.

Brexit was a single issue which got them votes. The current high polling is due to the vaccine rollout. When there is an election which isn't dominated by a single issue we might see a different trend.

SB

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:24 - May 7 with 677 viewsHARRY10

What used to be done by the ooen media is nw done through social media, with almost no sccountability as there is nothing to see.

if i read the Mail or the Mirror a decade or so back I could see what each were saying. Now through algorithms none of us has any real idea what is being pumped into silly heads. You don't need to be anyone of great intellect to notice how otherwise politically indifferent folk are now spouting much the same gibberish.

Being mostly variants on the theme of there being a collective enemy intent only on ruining their lives. Not Eurasia or Eastasia.... but the EU. And just as the crops were ruined by Farmer Jones, so Xmas is banned, children are banned from playing conkers and the phrase black coffee can lead to a hefty fine.... imposed by the Woke Police.

No story is too fanciful not to be believed, and even regurgitated. No lie is too big to not be swallowed. It is each epoch delufdes itsekf that it is not being conned, because technology is more sophisticated and further ahead of them thast the previous ones.

We laughed at the idea that Dachshiund dogs were attacked during aWWI, but seem oblivious that 'oriental' looking people have been violenly attacked because of Covid.

the real question here is not one of political activity (or supposed lack of it) but what is in the human condition that causes people to deceive themselves so much. What causes someone to believe we can speak to the dead.

Because as long as those conditions exist we will have unscrupulous arzholes like Trump, Farage, Johnson and all many of preachers willing to exploit them, for their own ends - knowing that a re-assuring lie is always more welcome than the harsh truth.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:33 - May 7 with 652 viewshype313


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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:38 - May 7 with 640 viewsitfcjoe

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 07:21 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue

16% swing from Labour to Tory. The biggest swing to government party in a by-election in living memory. Governments rarely hold seats in mid term by-elections, let alone win them.


Our politics has become US style 2 party and the left haven't reacted at all. When you look at 2019 CON plus BXP was the majority and it stayed that way

The right convalesce around one party, the left split the vote.

There is also a move away from right and left, the Conservatives rely on an older, lesser educated voter, voting often against the policies that would benefit them to 'stick it to the libs' when a Govt claims to be tougher on crime, immigration, harsher sentances, etc. When the reality of a lot of their claims are easily debunked (crime always rises under Tory Governments as an e.g.). Similar to the US where the poorest vote against universal healthcare

Labour/the left seem to be in a position where they are waiting for the younger people whose vote they carry to get old and continue voting, but by then the Conservatives will have changed to pick up votes from where they need to do so as are ruthless.

The multi party system here, when one side of the debate is happy to just do what it needs to be elected and the other argues amongst itself, is destined to fail for the other side continously.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:56 - May 7 with 596 viewsHARRY10

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:33 - May 7 by hype313



And there, with a few taps of the keyboard we have the contempt for the perceived 'working class' laid out before you

A group that this bigot is happy to state he is not part of, and happy to misrepresent that this group 'the working class' are a separate entity to the Labour Party.

As said elsewhere, most have no idea what is being fed to the 'not too bright'. Though I can say for certainty that this myth of the Labour Party being solely a club for the wealthy metropolitan elite who sneer and the 'working class' is a classic line peddled by shytehawks like this.

Phrases that I hear umpteen times, from folk who would never normally sue such expressions. This was what has played out in Hartlepool and elsewhere. We maybe Tories, but we are honest about being Tories, whereas the likes of Starmer who patronises your love of your country (of which you own fck all), refers to your dislike of foreigners (dark skin) as racist, and insults your belief that thinking should be left to your betters as you being thick.

So vote for us, we might be cnts, but at least we won't upset you by saying what we really think of you.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:56 - May 7 with 593 viewsPinewoodblue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:38 - May 7 by itfcjoe

Our politics has become US style 2 party and the left haven't reacted at all. When you look at 2019 CON plus BXP was the majority and it stayed that way

The right convalesce around one party, the left split the vote.

There is also a move away from right and left, the Conservatives rely on an older, lesser educated voter, voting often against the policies that would benefit them to 'stick it to the libs' when a Govt claims to be tougher on crime, immigration, harsher sentances, etc. When the reality of a lot of their claims are easily debunked (crime always rises under Tory Governments as an e.g.). Similar to the US where the poorest vote against universal healthcare

Labour/the left seem to be in a position where they are waiting for the younger people whose vote they carry to get old and continue voting, but by then the Conservatives will have changed to pick up votes from where they need to do so as are ruthless.

The multi party system here, when one side of the debate is happy to just do what it needs to be elected and the other argues amongst itself, is destined to fail for the other side continously.


Looking back over the years it has been interesting to see how people’s political views gradually move to the right. No reason to suppose that will not continue to happen.

All you can do is make sure enough of your natural support votes. That requires enough active volunteers to get involved. There are more than enough potential Labour voters out there to make a difference. Older Labour voters are just as frustrated with how things are going as, more vocal, younger generations.

It is worth noting that the majority of MP’s are no longer in my age group. I notice that the majority of candidates are young enough to be my kids.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:04 - May 7 with 578 viewsitfcjoe

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:56 - May 7 by Pinewoodblue

Looking back over the years it has been interesting to see how people’s political views gradually move to the right. No reason to suppose that will not continue to happen.

All you can do is make sure enough of your natural support votes. That requires enough active volunteers to get involved. There are more than enough potential Labour voters out there to make a difference. Older Labour voters are just as frustrated with how things are going as, more vocal, younger generations.

It is worth noting that the majority of MP’s are no longer in my age group. I notice that the majority of candidates are young enough to be my kids.


But the natural support for Labour, i.e. the working classes, are now totally entranced by a Conservative Government that has done very little for them, and will continue to do very little for them.

I hear it from my Mum, when she reads the latest 'Woke' storyline on Facebook or hears it on Loose Women.....yesterday it was something about a Sleeping Beauty ride being shut at Disney, when they haven't been able to open the park for months. I hear it in the pub, when it is good old Boris, his missus has shafted him with this wallpaper and now he is having to carry can, but I wouldn't want his job, poor bloke etc......

And then the Tories will come out about being tough on crime, when the justice system is a joke (under their watch), when there is no better time to be a violent offender as chances of coming to justice are slim, but because they say they are tough, then people lap it up.

The traditional working class base is gone for Labour, they can't appeal to people that are happy to vote for a party that does nothing for them, they don't look at the policies, they read what they are fed.

They don't see what Patel, Kwarteng, and others at the heart of the Givt have documented, that they want regulations stripped back, workers rights stripped back......and quite frankly they won't see it until it happens - and that is sad for everyone.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:21 - May 7 with 534 viewsitfcjoe

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:04 - May 7 by itfcjoe

But the natural support for Labour, i.e. the working classes, are now totally entranced by a Conservative Government that has done very little for them, and will continue to do very little for them.

I hear it from my Mum, when she reads the latest 'Woke' storyline on Facebook or hears it on Loose Women.....yesterday it was something about a Sleeping Beauty ride being shut at Disney, when they haven't been able to open the park for months. I hear it in the pub, when it is good old Boris, his missus has shafted him with this wallpaper and now he is having to carry can, but I wouldn't want his job, poor bloke etc......

And then the Tories will come out about being tough on crime, when the justice system is a joke (under their watch), when there is no better time to be a violent offender as chances of coming to justice are slim, but because they say they are tough, then people lap it up.

The traditional working class base is gone for Labour, they can't appeal to people that are happy to vote for a party that does nothing for them, they don't look at the policies, they read what they are fed.

They don't see what Patel, Kwarteng, and others at the heart of the Givt have documented, that they want regulations stripped back, workers rights stripped back......and quite frankly they won't see it until it happens - and that is sad for everyone.


Towns that have been neglected, voting for more of the same, no great surprise to read this


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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:22 - May 7 with 531 viewsJDB23

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:29 - May 7 by GlasgowBlue

They also need to remember that had the Brexit Party not stood in Hartlepool in 2019 they would have lost the seat back then under Corbyn.

Edit. Typed UKIP rather than Brexit Party.
[Post edited 7 May 2021 9:01]


In 2017 Labour had 22,000 votes.
In 2019 Labour had 15,000 votes.
In 2021 Labour have 8,000 votes.

This isn't just about sticking UKIP and Cons together and saying "ah well Labour would have lost anyway". They have haemorrhaged votes, with a lot of people just not even bothering to turn up to the ballot box.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:28 - May 7 with 498 viewsPinewoodblue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:04 - May 7 by itfcjoe

But the natural support for Labour, i.e. the working classes, are now totally entranced by a Conservative Government that has done very little for them, and will continue to do very little for them.

I hear it from my Mum, when she reads the latest 'Woke' storyline on Facebook or hears it on Loose Women.....yesterday it was something about a Sleeping Beauty ride being shut at Disney, when they haven't been able to open the park for months. I hear it in the pub, when it is good old Boris, his missus has shafted him with this wallpaper and now he is having to carry can, but I wouldn't want his job, poor bloke etc......

And then the Tories will come out about being tough on crime, when the justice system is a joke (under their watch), when there is no better time to be a violent offender as chances of coming to justice are slim, but because they say they are tough, then people lap it up.

The traditional working class base is gone for Labour, they can't appeal to people that are happy to vote for a party that does nothing for them, they don't look at the policies, they read what they are fed.

They don't see what Patel, Kwarteng, and others at the heart of the Givt have documented, that they want regulations stripped back, workers rights stripped back......and quite frankly they won't see it until it happens - and that is sad for everyone.


Numerically the balance of power should be with the younger generation. Fifty years ago the younger generation were more likely to vote that current youngsters and by youngsters I mean under 35’s.

I actually think one of the biggest problems is far too many people are either afraid to take the responsibility of voting, or just happy to leave it too others. They are the problem .

As for Labour being the party of the working class it hardly rings true when the leader of the opposition has been awarded a knighthood, by the establishment, for services to the establishment.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:31 - May 7 with 485 viewsitfcjoe

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:28 - May 7 by Pinewoodblue

Numerically the balance of power should be with the younger generation. Fifty years ago the younger generation were more likely to vote that current youngsters and by youngsters I mean under 35’s.

I actually think one of the biggest problems is far too many people are either afraid to take the responsibility of voting, or just happy to leave it too others. They are the problem .

As for Labour being the party of the working class it hardly rings true when the leader of the opposition has been awarded a knighthood, by the establishment, for services to the establishment.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/


I don't get that attack line that seems to land on Starmer when you see his background.....no one at the top of politics can be truly working class, if someone who has come from that background to that position is seen as not so.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 10:33 - May 7 with 470 viewsGlasgowBlue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:56 - May 7 by HARRY10

And there, with a few taps of the keyboard we have the contempt for the perceived 'working class' laid out before you

A group that this bigot is happy to state he is not part of, and happy to misrepresent that this group 'the working class' are a separate entity to the Labour Party.

As said elsewhere, most have no idea what is being fed to the 'not too bright'. Though I can say for certainty that this myth of the Labour Party being solely a club for the wealthy metropolitan elite who sneer and the 'working class' is a classic line peddled by shytehawks like this.

Phrases that I hear umpteen times, from folk who would never normally sue such expressions. This was what has played out in Hartlepool and elsewhere. We maybe Tories, but we are honest about being Tories, whereas the likes of Starmer who patronises your love of your country (of which you own fck all), refers to your dislike of foreigners (dark skin) as racist, and insults your belief that thinking should be left to your betters as you being thick.

So vote for us, we might be cnts, but at least we won't upset you by saying what we really think of you.


You seem to throw the word bigot around without any supporting evidence.

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