| The Omicron Variant 18:22 - Nov 26 with 7768 views | gordon |
Definitely doesn't sound anything like an apocalyptic disaster movie, so maybe things will be fine. |  | | |  |
| The Omicron Variant on 09:25 - Nov 28 with 967 views | Herbivore |
| The Omicron Variant on 09:04 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
Austria vax rate is 64%. European average is 57%. Ours is 68%. Cases hospitalisations and deaths still happen, lockdowns just push them back. Lockdowns are pointless.
To be clear for the hard of thinking at the back (not you Herbs); everyone should get the vaccine and wear a mask. |
"Lockdowns are pointless" is a ridiculous take. There is loads of evidence that shows they save lives and slow the spread of the virus. |  |
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| The Omicron Variant on 09:27 - Nov 28 with 938 views | tonybied |
| The Omicron Variant on 09:00 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
….is not what I said. I said “pay people properly to stay at home when sick”. |
...but alone that doesn't work as this virus doesn't make everyone 'sick'. People pass it on unwillingly as they don't even know they have it, this is why lockdowns are the most effective way of keeping levels down.
I don't disagree with your point at all, this has been a massive failing of our government but in isolation will not succeed in keeping infections under control through the winter months especially if, as predicted, this variant is more transmittable. [Post edited 28 Nov 2021 9:28]
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| The Omicron Variant on 09:34 - Nov 28 with 922 views | StokieBlue |
| The Omicron Variant on 09:04 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
Austria vax rate is 64%. European average is 57%. Ours is 68%. Cases hospitalisations and deaths still happen, lockdowns just push them back. Lockdowns are pointless.
To be clear for the hard of thinking at the back (not you Herbs); everyone should get the vaccine and wear a mask. |
You are certainly right that the government should pay people more to actually stay home when ill but the issue here is that many won't know they are ill in the initial stages and will be mixing in all locations (since there is no lockdown) and thus the spread continues without any brake.
The end result of that with an infectious variant that evades vaccines and can cause hospitalisations is that the ICU's and hospital wards are quickly overrun with cases and people die.
Lockdowns, whilst obviously not ideal, do allow the government to apply some form of braking to the spread and prevent health services from being overwhelmed.
The key issue here is going to be whether Omicron causes more hospitalisations or long covid. If it's the same level as we currently see for Delta I doubt we will see anymore lockdowns, if it's causing more hospitalisations then it's likely we will see a lockdown to apply a brake to the spread.
We won't know the answers to the above for at least a few weeks, possibly more, hence the restrictions are being increased for 3 weeks before reassessment.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| The Omicron Variant on 10:00 - Nov 28 with 863 views | Pinewoodblue |
| The Omicron Variant on 09:34 - Nov 28 by StokieBlue |
You are certainly right that the government should pay people more to actually stay home when ill but the issue here is that many won't know they are ill in the initial stages and will be mixing in all locations (since there is no lockdown) and thus the spread continues without any brake.
The end result of that with an infectious variant that evades vaccines and can cause hospitalisations is that the ICU's and hospital wards are quickly overrun with cases and people die.
Lockdowns, whilst obviously not ideal, do allow the government to apply some form of braking to the spread and prevent health services from being overwhelmed.
The key issue here is going to be whether Omicron causes more hospitalisations or long covid. If it's the same level as we currently see for Delta I doubt we will see anymore lockdowns, if it's causing more hospitalisations then it's likely we will see a lockdown to apply a brake to the spread.
We won't know the answers to the above for at least a few weeks, possibly more, hence the restrictions are being increased for 3 weeks before reassessment.
SB |
Not convinced on lockdowns but there are many restrictions that ought already be in force. Mask wearing, and not just in shops and on public transport but also throughout the hospitality industry and that includes concourses and othe crowded indoor areas at football grounds.
Would also be in favour of making it compulsory, even if triple jabbed, to produce proof of a negative LF test for theatres , football grounds etc.
Going to a music weekender next weekend and will do LF test before leaving home and not go if test positive. Shame will be in a small minority taking such precautions to protect others. |  |
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| The Omicron Variant on 10:49 - Nov 28 with 830 views | gordon |
| The Omicron Variant on 09:04 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
Austria vax rate is 64%. European average is 57%. Ours is 68%. Cases hospitalisations and deaths still happen, lockdowns just push them back. Lockdowns are pointless.
To be clear for the hard of thinking at the back (not you Herbs); everyone should get the vaccine and wear a mask. |
If the Omicron variant were to be at the worse end of what is possible re vaccine escape and clinical outcomes, then 'just pushing things back' via restrictions could save tens of thousands of lives across Europe, given that by Spring a vaccine targeted at Omicron will be available. | | | |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:13 - Nov 28 with 796 views | chicoazul |
| The Omicron Variant on 09:25 - Nov 28 by Herbivore |
"Lockdowns are pointless" is a ridiculous take. There is loads of evidence that shows they save lives and slow the spread of the virus. |
They save lives in so far as they push cases back until post lockdown. I don’t agree that’s the same thing. |  |
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:28 - Nov 28 with 789 views | bluelagos |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:13 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
They save lives in so far as they push cases back until post lockdown. I don’t agree that’s the same thing. |
What you are missing Chico are a couple of things.
1. Without the lockdowns pushing the infections further back, the hospitals would be overrun. This would mean A&E would not be able to treat crash victims etc. and so more people would die.
2. By delaying the spread of the virus, lockdowns allow more people to get jabbed/boosted and so more people survive the virus than would otherwise be the case.
Your "lockdowns don't work" argument is bobbins tbh and the experts are clear on the 2 key things I highlighted above. |  |
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:36 - Nov 28 with 773 views | NthQldITFC |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:28 - Nov 28 by bluelagos |
What you are missing Chico are a couple of things.
1. Without the lockdowns pushing the infections further back, the hospitals would be overrun. This would mean A&E would not be able to treat crash victims etc. and so more people would die.
2. By delaying the spread of the virus, lockdowns allow more people to get jabbed/boosted and so more people survive the virus than would otherwise be the case.
Your "lockdowns don't work" argument is bobbins tbh and the experts are clear on the 2 key things I highlighted above. |
Lockdowns are neither pointless nor perfect, but there's a whole range of useful control mechanism in between.
Given that we've had two years of this now, both the government and the general population should be adult enough to accept and to have prepared for, short, sharp interventions to optimise the outcomes of any particular wave.
That neither government nor general population seem to be mature and selfless enough to accept this is just another sad indictment on our sorry species, frankly. |  |
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:37 - Nov 28 with 772 views | pointofblue |
| The Omicron Variant on 10:49 - Nov 28 by gordon |
If the Omicron variant were to be at the worse end of what is possible re vaccine escape and clinical outcomes, then 'just pushing things back' via restrictions could save tens of thousands of lives across Europe, given that by Spring a vaccine targeted at Omicron will be available. |
Agreed. Though just as we get back to a form of normality another variant will appear. |  |
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:39 - Nov 28 with 756 views | chicoazul |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:28 - Nov 28 by bluelagos |
What you are missing Chico are a couple of things.
1. Without the lockdowns pushing the infections further back, the hospitals would be overrun. This would mean A&E would not be able to treat crash victims etc. and so more people would die.
2. By delaying the spread of the virus, lockdowns allow more people to get jabbed/boosted and so more people survive the virus than would otherwise be the case.
Your "lockdowns don't work" argument is bobbins tbh and the experts are clear on the 2 key things I highlighted above. |
Netherlands and Belgium have very high vax rates and have seen some of the steepest rises in infection. The vaccine is out there doing it’s work. You and others have said or implied that lockdowns can or do act as a brake on infection. This means that logically we must persist with them every time there is a new mutation of this virus (4 I think so far in 20 months). Lockdowns are pointless if many people are vaccinated *and still cases rise*. And once again if lockdowns “work” whatever that means, why are countries that have lockdowns suffering from case rises? It doesn’t make sense.
We must learn to live with the virus like we have with many other diseases and health dangers in the past and decide what is an acceptable level of risk. You’re not saying this but others are, that we must pursue zero covid. This is a mad policy I hope we continue to avoid. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:40 - Nov 28 with 755 views | bluelagos |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:36 - Nov 28 by NthQldITFC |
Lockdowns are neither pointless nor perfect, but there's a whole range of useful control mechanism in between.
Given that we've had two years of this now, both the government and the general population should be adult enough to accept and to have prepared for, short, sharp interventions to optimise the outcomes of any particular wave.
That neither government nor general population seem to be mature and selfless enough to accept this is just another sad indictment on our sorry species, frankly. |
They are a very blunt instrument and clearly do an awful lot of harm (as well as the benefits of saving lives) in social costs and economic (less important) costs.
We seem to be improving things slowly, like a traveler has to quarantine at home until his negative test arrives.
And given we know vaccines' effectiveness reduces over time, I wonder if we will start to mandate tests before you go to crowded events? Defo lots of things that can be done before a full lockdown, no argument from me there. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:42 - Nov 28 with 749 views | chicoazul |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:36 - Nov 28 by NthQldITFC |
Lockdowns are neither pointless nor perfect, but there's a whole range of useful control mechanism in between.
Given that we've had two years of this now, both the government and the general population should be adult enough to accept and to have prepared for, short, sharp interventions to optimise the outcomes of any particular wave.
That neither government nor general population seem to be mature and selfless enough to accept this is just another sad indictment on our sorry species, frankly. |
Your second paragraph; For the rest of our lives?
Why don’t we ban cars in that case? Or fags? Or any of the other things we do that pit ourselves and others at great risk? | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:45 - Nov 28 with 737 views | gordon |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:37 - Nov 28 by pointofblue |
Agreed. Though just as we get back to a form of normality another variant will appear. |
The severity of each wave will be less, the vaccines better, the drug treatments more effective etc. Last winter was appalling, this one still likely to be much better, and next winter hopefully better still. | | | |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:51 - Nov 28 with 715 views | NthQldITFC |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:42 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
Your second paragraph; For the rest of our lives?
Why don’t we ban cars in that case? Or fags? Or any of the other things we do that pit ourselves and others at great risk? |
Who knows. But in the current situation of a new variant of unknown severity, we should be ready for, say, a one to two week lockdown to suppress the rising curve and give additional time to assess and mitigate for the risk.
It has always been highly likely that we would be in this situation at some point, and we should all have been ready for it. It might be that it is a new way of living, but we can certainly adapt to the practicalities of it, and even the emotional difficulties will be overcome with time. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:56 - Nov 28 with 702 views | tonybied |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:42 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
Your second paragraph; For the rest of our lives?
Why don’t we ban cars in that case? Or fags? Or any of the other things we do that pit ourselves and others at great risk? |
Why do you continually ignore the point multiple people have made to you in this thread?
The whole point of any lockdown is to quickly halt exponential growth of cases thus easing the burden on hospitals. Hospitals are not overrun by people involved in RTAs or smokers but they will get overrun by covid patients if we don't treat this virus with the respect it deserves! [Post edited 28 Nov 2021 11:57]
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| The Omicron Variant on 11:59 - Nov 28 with 706 views | Trequartista |
| The Omicron Variant on 08:13 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
Oh boy I really hope they do another lockdown because those things are really great and proven to work, just look at the continent for instance. |
I think your argument works better when applied to restrictions rather than lockdown. We have removed restrictions in England since the summer whilst most of Europe hasn’t. We’ve then had higher cases and higher hospitalisations. All bad so far. Now Europe is getting a steep hospitalisation rise whilst we bob up and down at around the same level. Just as we get into winter. Their hospitals are now overflowing because they are full of non-COVID patients, ours aren’t. (Overflowing that is, I know they are pretty full anyway) People won’t be getting the full care they need. We’ve ended up in a better overall position. Probably more by luck than judgement. [Post edited 28 Nov 2021 12:00]
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| The Omicron Variant on 12:07 - Nov 28 with 681 views | chicoazul |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:56 - Nov 28 by tonybied |
Why do you continually ignore the point multiple people have made to you in this thread?
The whole point of any lockdown is to quickly halt exponential growth of cases thus easing the burden on hospitals. Hospitals are not overrun by people involved in RTAs or smokers but they will get overrun by covid patients if we don't treat this virus with the respect it deserves! [Post edited 28 Nov 2021 11:57]
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And as I have said several times, they don’t halt anything, they push them down the road. We haven’t had a lockdown and yet our healthcare system is beyond its’ maximum capacity. The vaccine has hugely impacted positively on hospital admissions. It is doing it’s job. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 12:12 - Nov 28 with 680 views | bluelagos |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:39 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
Netherlands and Belgium have very high vax rates and have seen some of the steepest rises in infection. The vaccine is out there doing it’s work. You and others have said or implied that lockdowns can or do act as a brake on infection. This means that logically we must persist with them every time there is a new mutation of this virus (4 I think so far in 20 months). Lockdowns are pointless if many people are vaccinated *and still cases rise*. And once again if lockdowns “work” whatever that means, why are countries that have lockdowns suffering from case rises? It doesn’t make sense.
We must learn to live with the virus like we have with many other diseases and health dangers in the past and decide what is an acceptable level of risk. You’re not saying this but others are, that we must pursue zero covid. This is a mad policy I hope we continue to avoid. |
Lots to unpack there.
"Netherlands and Belgium have very high vax rates and have seen some of the steepest rises in infection. "
Yep, vaccines do not give us 100% protection from infection. But without them, the rates in Netherlands and Belgium would be higher.
"You and others have said or implied that lockdowns can or do act as a brake on infection."
Yep, is really simple. The driver for infections is human contact. So lockdowns reduce human contact and so reduce infections from what they would otherwise be.
"This means that logically we must persist with them every time there is a new mutation of this virus (4 I think so far in 20 months). "
Will say this, we will need to keep on introducing restrictions if/when more virulent strains occur, yes. That will enable the boffins to access the risks, update the vaccines and jab people. It's sh1t, but that's pretty much where we are yes. (That may or may not be lockdowns - am not an expert)
"And once again if lockdowns “work” whatever that means, why are countries that have lockdowns suffering from case rises? It doesn’t make sense."
Because lockdowns reduce transmission, they do not eliminate it.
"We must learn to live with the virus like we have with many other diseases and health dangers in the past and decide what is an acceptable level of risk. You’re not saying this but others are, that we must pursue zero covid. This is a mad policy I hope we continue to avoid."
I actually agree with you. Zero covid is impossible to achieve imho. It is not our strategy and never has been. That some people think we can eliminate the virus is for them to defend - it's not something I think is achievable.
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That's my lot - enjoy the rest of the day - and the footie. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 13:15 - Nov 28 with 606 views | The_Major |
"Would you mind wearing a mask?"
"Get stuffed, I'm not doing that just because Boris Johnson tells me to!"
Last week...
"Would you mind wearing a mask?"
"Get stuffed, Boris Johnson doesn't, so I'm following his lead!" |  | | |
| The Omicron Variant on 13:53 - Nov 28 with 563 views | Herbivore |
| The Omicron Variant on 11:59 - Nov 28 by Trequartista |
I think your argument works better when applied to restrictions rather than lockdown. We have removed restrictions in England since the summer whilst most of Europe hasn’t. We’ve then had higher cases and higher hospitalisations. All bad so far. Now Europe is getting a steep hospitalisation rise whilst we bob up and down at around the same level. Just as we get into winter. Their hospitals are now overflowing because they are full of non-COVID patients, ours aren’t. (Overflowing that is, I know they are pretty full anyway) People won’t be getting the full care they need. We’ve ended up in a better overall position. Probably more by luck than judgement. [Post edited 28 Nov 2021 12:00]
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If you ignore the thousands of deaths we've had whilst our case numbers have continued to be very high over a 3-4 month period, then sure, we've done great. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 13:55 - Nov 28 with 550 views | Herbivore |
| The Omicron Variant on 12:07 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
And as I have said several times, they don’t halt anything, they push them down the road. We haven’t had a lockdown and yet our healthcare system is beyond its’ maximum capacity. The vaccine has hugely impacted positively on hospital admissions. It is doing it’s job. |
Jesus wept. You could just say "I don't understand this, lsds". I'd have more respect for that than you hammering the same incoherent line of argument that isn't remotely backed up by the science. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 14:19 - Nov 28 with 515 views | chicoazul |
| The Omicron Variant on 13:55 - Nov 28 by Herbivore |
Jesus wept. You could just say "I don't understand this, lsds". I'd have more respect for that than you hammering the same incoherent line of argument that isn't remotely backed up by the science. |
I understand the point perfectly. I just don’t agree that lockdowns do anything apart from kick cases down the road. They’re pointless. We have a vaccine that works very well. We should implement other measures too instead of brutal ridiculous lockdowns.
There is no “the” science. There is only science. Not all scientists agree anymore than all TWTD agrees. Hence Austria for just one example is in its 4th wave after lockdowns; hence us having lots of cases with no lockdowns.
I think Queensland is right. We will have inevitable lockdown after lockdown. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 14:24 - Nov 28 with 510 views | StokieBlue |
| The Omicron Variant on 14:19 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
I understand the point perfectly. I just don’t agree that lockdowns do anything apart from kick cases down the road. They’re pointless. We have a vaccine that works very well. We should implement other measures too instead of brutal ridiculous lockdowns.
There is no “the” science. There is only science. Not all scientists agree anymore than all TWTD agrees. Hence Austria for just one example is in its 4th wave after lockdowns; hence us having lots of cases with no lockdowns.
I think Queensland is right. We will have inevitable lockdown after lockdown. |
"We have a vaccine that works very well"
This is the point though, we no longer know that is the cases and we probably won't know for at least 2 weeks.
The hypothetical lockdown being discussed would probably only happen in the case that the vaccine no longer works very well.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| The Omicron Variant on 14:25 - Nov 28 with 504 views | Herbivore |
| The Omicron Variant on 14:19 - Nov 28 by chicoazul |
I understand the point perfectly. I just don’t agree that lockdowns do anything apart from kick cases down the road. They’re pointless. We have a vaccine that works very well. We should implement other measures too instead of brutal ridiculous lockdowns.
There is no “the” science. There is only science. Not all scientists agree anymore than all TWTD agrees. Hence Austria for just one example is in its 4th wave after lockdowns; hence us having lots of cases with no lockdowns.
I think Queensland is right. We will have inevitable lockdown after lockdown. |
Lockdowns aren't pointless though for the litany of reasons already offered to you. But your fingers are in your ears on this one so I'll leave you to it. | |
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| The Omicron Variant on 14:35 - Nov 28 with 487 views | chicoazul |
| The Omicron Variant on 14:25 - Nov 28 by Herbivore |
Lockdowns aren't pointless though for the litany of reasons already offered to you. But your fingers are in your ears on this one so I'll leave you to it. |
The litany of reasons all of which end up with more covid not less? | |
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