| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 10:03 - Feb 7 with 4784 views | itfcjoe |
Will that be enough? Probably just about.
Will we do it? Looks unlikely at moment.
How do we get there
13 wins+
12 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats
11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats
10 wins, 7 draws, 0 defeats
You look at the remaining fixtures and 11-12 wins looks more than doable:
9 home games - will need 6-7 wins as a minimum
8 away games - will need 4-5 wins
That will get us to 10-12 wins, if it is at the upper end of that we'll be fine, if it is at the lower end we won't be.
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:06 - Feb 7 with 3412 views | gainsboroughblue |
Based on last season, we need 26 of those points just to make top 6! |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:07 - Feb 7 with 3393 views | billlm |
Good post,
Owls game huge,
Win it confidence high we will be a different animal,
Draw or lose top two is done,
Then I'd be looking to gain some form or 3-6 will be a slog,
Somethings gone badly wrong since the Charlton debacle, |  | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:08 - Feb 7 with 3385 views | brazil1982 |
We'll be in the lottery of the play offs unfortunately. |  | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:13 - Feb 7 with 3343 views | TJS |
I'm afraid we are now in five in a row territory if we want to realistically get back in contention. |  | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:18 - Feb 7 with 3303 views | belgablue |
Helps put it into perspective. I think we will need 13+ wins. Need a run now, which is difficult to see happening but stranger things have happened etc.. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:22 - Feb 7 with 3274 views | unstableblue |
Thanks Joe, interesting post
(Although didn’t understand - ‘12 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats’?)
I’m looking at in two ways now:
1) We need to go on a serious run NOW, starting Saturday, and then building momentum into 4 very winnable games (Bristol Rovers (a), Forest Green (h), MK Dons (a), Burton (h))
2) We need to end the season as the form team, secure the play-off place, and go in with the players fit, coordinated and dangerous in front of goal… Broadhead and Clarke settled.. defence more secure… Ladapo and Hirst scoring at will
As you say 1 is looking much less likely and it will be hugely disappointing to miss out on automatic but Plymouth and Weds have been relentless and our young manager is dealing with his first adversity
I do think Charlton away messed us up as has some intermittent player form. I think Plymouth have had their Charlton away games… (including home and away against us).. and built from it
I do have a dream that we beat Weds go on a run, and MK Dons is the moment we reach peak McKenna in front of 7k away blues… now wouldn’t that be nice!!??
Do fear Burnley away is a major distraction but clearly McKenna resting a few |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:22 - Feb 7 with 3271 views | BigCommon |
Our bad form also coincides with this cup run..We haven't won a single league match following an FA cup match?.
Not even 100% sure if 92 points will be enough?
We've got tricky away games at Bolton, Derby, Barnsley and Peterborough to come.
It'll take something special now, to make top two. But it's not, yet, impossible. So we live in hope.. I need a lift from our squad now. Couple of wins on the bounce would be nice..
I'm normally very positive. But if we don't win our next two. Then ill find it very hard to believe in top 2 finish. |  | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:23 - Feb 7 with 3270 views | LankHenners |
You've probably heard it but KOA did a good bit on this recently where Watson went through the list of remaining fixtures and they ticked off the games you'd think Town would win, getting to 13 which was the magic number which they agreed would give you a total where you'd be very hard done by not to finish top 2.
Obviously they had Cambridge down as a win so if you follow their working it means having to win one of the tougher fixtures, and subsequent failure to put away those sorts of teams means the win has to carry over to another tougher fixture and so on which makes things harder.
Looking at the fixture list though I (slightly optimistically) count 12 I think we should be able to win, with the ones left out of that being Wednesday (H), Bolton (A), Barnsley (A), Derby (A), Peterborough (A).
I'm not confident we'll pull that off at the moment as our away form right now is pretty poor and if we can't beat at least one of those other sides in the top six that could be quite a psychological blow, particularly among the fanbase.
Pretty much need to find our early season form and performances immediately to put destiny in our own hands at least. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:23 - Feb 7 with 3250 views | FrimleyBlue |
You know what.
I think a win Saturday will give us a boost.
Morcambe win was great. Really good..but it's not a game like Saturday which puts you back in the hunt.
Win sat and its still on.
Anything other than a win and I just don't see us having the mentality to do enough. I think sat will have a massive mental effect. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:24 - Feb 7 with 3239 views | unstableblue |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:13 - Feb 7 by TJS |
I'm afraid we are now in five in a row territory if we want to realistically get back in contention. |
It has to come doesn’t it… 5 wins if we beat Wednesday is doable…
But just don’t think we have the confidence… and Weds will be well backed and flying after Plymouth home win
We need to start strongly and get the fans behind the team
If we start slow… I think the fans are rightly very nervous | |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:38 - Feb 7 with 3114 views | DJR |
Given our recent form, the equivalent of 12 or so wins looks a pretty tall order given some tricky away games to come.
Whilst not mathematically impossible if we don't, I think we definitely have to win on Saturday. [Post edited 7 Feb 2023 10:38]
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:46 - Feb 7 with 3058 views | TalkingBlues |
Even if 92 was a dead cert for automatics, we'd have to produce far better form than we've done at any point this season and for a sustained period. There's absolutely zero chance IMO that we hit any of those markers you detailed, I reckon we're good for 8 or 9 wins tops out of the remaining fixtures and that starts with a loss to Wednesday next Saturday. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:52 - Feb 7 with 3004 views | LankHenners |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:46 - Feb 7 by TalkingBlues |
Even if 92 was a dead cert for automatics, we'd have to produce far better form than we've done at any point this season and for a sustained period. There's absolutely zero chance IMO that we hit any of those markers you detailed, I reckon we're good for 8 or 9 wins tops out of the remaining fixtures and that starts with a loss to Wednesday next Saturday. |
37 points is how many we had after our first 17 games which we achieved beating many of the sides we have left to play so a revert to previous form would do it. Whether we can or not is a bit in the balance. | |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:54 - Feb 7 with 2978 views | gringoblue |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:46 - Feb 7 by TalkingBlues |
Even if 92 was a dead cert for automatics, we'd have to produce far better form than we've done at any point this season and for a sustained period. There's absolutely zero chance IMO that we hit any of those markers you detailed, I reckon we're good for 8 or 9 wins tops out of the remaining fixtures and that starts with a loss to Wednesday next Saturday. |
I understand the pessimism, but we got 37 points from our first 17 games of the season. So it simply isn't true that "we'd have to produce far better form than we've done at any point this season and for a sustained period". Now whether we can hit that form again starting from a rocky patch is another matter... |  | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:58 - Feb 7 with 2916 views | chicoazul |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:06 - Feb 7 by gainsboroughblue |
Based on last season, we need 26 of those points just to make top 6! |
The more I think about it the more convinced I am we aren’t going to be in the play offs. Charlton has killed this team stone dead and it a zombie of what it was. Key players - Walton Morsy Burns - have collapsed in form. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:00 - Feb 7 with 2904 views | clive_baker |
I'm not sure 92 would be enough. 2nd place is tracking at 2.1ppg, so I don't see any reasons to believe they'll drop to 1.8 for the rest of the season which would finish them on 92. Plymouth do have some tough games but I think it's a little optimistic. I remember having the same conversation on here last season looking at where 6th is tracking and people pulling up averages from 5 years ago rather than just looking at the shape of those clubs now. It's a league of have's and have nots and doesn't surprise me that the points totals are higher near the top.
I said a few weeks ago and stand by it that mid 90's might well be required. There's not much margin for error for us now, looking at close to 40 points from 17 games which would be a remarkable run. 13 wins from 17, we need a run of wins and quickly. We're in the territory of needing 5 wins from our next 6 I would say, that would leave us needing 8 from 11 which would put us back in contention. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:02 - Feb 7 with 2880 views | TalkingBlues |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:52 - Feb 7 by LankHenners |
37 points is how many we had after our first 17 games which we achieved beating many of the sides we have left to play so a revert to previous form would do it. Whether we can or not is a bit in the balance. |
The difference between the start of the season and the remaining fixtures, is that many of the other sides we talk about have improved significantly, therefore it's not just a case of us hitting our old form, we'd have to beat teams that are playing better than they were at the front end of the season, so we'd actually have to improve on our best form of the season to achieve the same results and I've seen nothing to suggest we are capable of even hitting our best form of the season, let alone improving it. | |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:03 - Feb 7 with 2863 views | SomethingBlue |
Difficult but not impossible. Psychology may come in. Looking at the fixtures themselves I would like to see where we are, vs Plymouth, in six games' time. If we haven't made some decent ground up on them by then I would (1) be surprised and (2) accept catching them won't happen. But if we have, then let's see what they're like with a one or two-point advantage to guard over the last 10 games rather than six. They screwed up badly last season, the mental aspect will creep in more and more as the finishing line nears.
Feels to me like 10 wins from the remaining lot if we discover our form again ... hope we can turn that up another notch. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:04 - Feb 7 with 2852 views | pete81 |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 10:54 - Feb 7 by gringoblue |
I understand the pessimism, but we got 37 points from our first 17 games of the season. So it simply isn't true that "we'd have to produce far better form than we've done at any point this season and for a sustained period". Now whether we can hit that form again starting from a rocky patch is another matter... |
Somehow get it done by the end of April. Imagine going to Fleetwood last game needing something when they are scrapping to stay up.
Next 16...
Need 12 wins
3 draws
1 defeat
Leaves us on 94 points. If we don't get top 2 with a game to go from that position then you have to hold your hands up...and go into the play offs.
Sheffield Wed v Derby last game is epic...ideally they are on 91 points after 45 games and Plymouth on 90....
Clearly no more second chances and we have to win next 6 games, save the 3 draws and a defeat to the 4 tough away games in March and April.
All amazing in theory...in reality....we will see... |  | | |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:08 - Feb 7 with 2790 views | SitfcB |
11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats Looks doable to me.
COYFB!! |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:12 - Feb 7 with 2755 views | LankHenners |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:02 - Feb 7 by TalkingBlues |
The difference between the start of the season and the remaining fixtures, is that many of the other sides we talk about have improved significantly, therefore it's not just a case of us hitting our old form, we'd have to beat teams that are playing better than they were at the front end of the season, so we'd actually have to improve on our best form of the season to achieve the same results and I've seen nothing to suggest we are capable of even hitting our best form of the season, let alone improving it. |
That's not really how it works and the teams we've already beaten are roughly where they've been all season, the only real difference being, e.g., Derby away is a tougher game than Derby at home.
I've lost a little faith we'll be able to reach top 2 but I don't see the need for the extreme doom and gloom where people assume we'll lose a bunch and every other team around us will go on unstoppable winning streaks.
We may need a couple more points than in the OP but we've shown it's not beyond us. | |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:16 - Feb 7 with 2704 views | Swansea_Blue |
Or in other words, we'd need our best run of results of the season. Looking unlikely isn't it, but then you never know... |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:17 - Feb 7 with 2705 views | Pinewoodblue |
Saw one of those super computer predictions yesterday
Showed Wednesday top with 95 pts, Plymouth 92pts then Derby, Ipswich Bolton and Barnsley.
Not sure, as fans, we could cope with Those play off possibilities.
We have to forget about the other teams and concentrate on our own game. Not sure we have the mentality to cope with that sort of relentless pressure, then Ipswich never do anything the easy way. |  |
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:18 - Feb 7 with 2695 views | ericclacton |
You never know, if we beat Wednesday on Saturday our form may take a diierent course.
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| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:21 - Feb 7 with 2650 views | TalkingBlues |
| 17 games left, 37 points to get to 92 on 11:12 - Feb 7 by LankHenners |
That's not really how it works and the teams we've already beaten are roughly where they've been all season, the only real difference being, e.g., Derby away is a tougher game than Derby at home.
I've lost a little faith we'll be able to reach top 2 but I don't see the need for the extreme doom and gloom where people assume we'll lose a bunch and every other team around us will go on unstoppable winning streaks.
We may need a couple more points than in the OP but we've shown it's not beyond us. |
A lot of the teams are in similar table positions, yes (save for Wednesday) and we have been living off our great start to the season, but the points gap we gained that put us so far ahead of the pack (14+ points) has been completely eroded now, the pack are only a couple of points behind us, one with a game in hand on us and they are in better form now than at any other stage of the season, whereas we are in a terrible patch for us.
Plymouth are the side that look like they could falter, they've done it before and they'll be a little more nervous now they've dropped to second, but Derby, Bolton, Barnsley etc are more than a passing threat, they are also in genuine contention for top 2 now, they smell blood. These upcoming games are far more difficult, both in terms of ability and psychologically than they were at the front end of the season and that makes the job much harder for us. It's not impossible, we are in it still, but we've made the task extremely hard for ourselves and we are simply not producing the results we should be, so I don't see what there is to be optimistic about, I'm far more interested in the realistic side of things. | |
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