| Huge win for Labour in Scotland 06:46 - Oct 6 with 16342 views | GlasgowBlue |
Nationalists imploding. Tory collapse. Labour majority at the next election.
After years of mediocre leadership, Scottish Labour has been revitalised by Anas Sarwar, who is like a breath of fresh air.
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:52 - Oct 6 with 1829 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:18 - Oct 6 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
So err, Corbyn and his policies were so popular then that millions turned to the Tories to specifically vote against them?
I’m sure you’ll remember to note that point the next time you just post the ‘Corbyn attracted millions back to Labour’ soundbite without any other context |
In fairness to Corbynites, 2019 was a pretty unusual election being fought principally on that 'Get Brexit Done' ticket. So many people were bored of it all by then they were happy to believe anyone who said they'd make it go away. Labour's position on that critical issue at the time was unclear (relatively).
Other policies didn't get a look-in. Which is a bit of a shame, because there was much in that Labour manifesto that would have benefited the UK. And there was appetite for Corbynite policies generally, as seen only a couple of years earlier when Labour did much better under the same leadership. Without Brexit, who knows whether Labour could have built on 2017. But then without Brexit there wouldn't have been an election in 2109, so that's a moot point.
All I know for certain is that we need more of what was in the Labour 2019 manifesto than we have now. I suspect not much of it will be in the 2024 Labour manifesto though. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:54 - Oct 6 with 1829 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 13:14 - Oct 6 by itfcjoe |
Campbell does also talk about Starmer needing to do what Labour did in 10 years over 5 - detoxify the party after electoral wipe out, get everything on the straight and narrow and make it electable again, then sell a positive vision going forwards.
It feels very much like 2 down, 1 to go, and that 1 needs to start soon to win the next election with a majority - but they are following the same process with regards to spending commitments and it is dull and will need to improve between now and the next GE, and sure that it will do.
Interesting point from John Sopel yesterday, where he says people keep saying is the next election going to be 1992 or 1997, and he likens the Labour party more to 1994 and Keir Starmer to John Smith, Smith before my time, but as both good leaders, across the detail, going in the right direction but without the personality or popularity of a Blair.....we never found out what would have happened had Smith let Labour into an election |
Starmer has undoubtedly been aided in his task by the astonishing self-destruction of the Tories in such a short period of time. In contrast, the Major government was more of a slow and lingering death.
The contrast though is that Smith and Blair appeared to stand for something, whereas Starmer doesn't.
As regards Smith, he didn't have the charisma of Blair but he had integrity and also a bit of a twinkle in his eye. He also had a long political background (unlike Starmer) and had even been Secretary of State for Trade in the Callaghan government.
He would undoubtedly have been more radical than Blair but in my view would still have obtained a very healthy majority because the traditionally Conservative civil servants In knew had completely given up on the Tories. And I feel that if he had been elected he would have put in place things that the Tories would have found less easy to dismantle when they came back to power.
As regards a comparison, Smith is a giant compared to Starmer, but then again so were those who were in the Cabinet in the first Blair government in comparison to those in the current Shadow Cabinet.
As it is, I would still maintain that Starmer (like Sunak) doesn't have a sound political grounding, coming as he did late to politics, which means to me that he is over-reliant on advisers. In that sense, he is no Blair, who had his own very good political instincts. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 14:59]
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:55 - Oct 6 with 1818 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:50 - Oct 6 by Radlett_blue |
the National Socialist German Workers' Party weren't exactly great. |
That's a bit of a cheap shot. | | | |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:56 - Oct 6 with 1810 views | Radlett_blue |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:54 - Oct 6 by DJR |
Starmer has undoubtedly been aided in his task by the astonishing self-destruction of the Tories in such a short period of time. In contrast, the Major government was more of a slow and lingering death.
The contrast though is that Smith and Blair appeared to stand for something, whereas Starmer doesn't.
As regards Smith, he didn't have the charisma of Blair but he had integrity and also a bit of a twinkle in his eye. He also had a long political background (unlike Starmer) and had even been Secretary of State for Trade in the Callaghan government.
He would undoubtedly have been more radical than Blair but in my view would still have obtained a very healthy majority because the traditionally Conservative civil servants In knew had completely given up on the Tories. And I feel that if he had been elected he would have put in place things that the Tories would have found less easy to dismantle when they came back to power.
As regards a comparison, Smith is a giant compared to Starmer, but then again so were those who were in the Cabinet in the first Blair government in comparison to those in the current Shadow Cabinet.
As it is, I would still maintain that Starmer (like Sunak) doesn't have a sound political grounding, coming as he did late to politics, which means to me that he is over-reliant on advisers. In that sense, he is no Blair, who had his own very good political instincts. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 14:59]
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I don't think that Blair stood for anything at all either. however, his "Tory lite" strategy was very effective & no wonder Starmer is doing the same. It's his election to lose. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:00 - Oct 6 with 1796 views | Swansea_Blue |
One final point from me, albeit a shallow one. Politics these days is as much about personality as anything. Starmer's rousing victory speech today: 'you smashed the doors off'. Michael Caine it was not. That lack of charisma is going to hurt them I suspect, whatever's in their manifesto.
Anyway, that's hardly a new revelation, but today reminded me how he comes across as so dull.
Back to do some work! | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:03 - Oct 6 with 1788 views | Darth_Koont |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:18 - Oct 6 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
So err, Corbyn and his policies were so popular then that millions turned to the Tories to specifically vote against them?
I’m sure you’ll remember to note that point the next time you just post the ‘Corbyn attracted millions back to Labour’ soundbite without any other context |
Brexit was the key issue. Labour were hamstrung by their compromise on a second vote and were criticised by both Brexiteers and Remainers as a result. They also were handicapped by a leader who was widely and however unfairly portrayed as something else and a danger to the country and even specific minorities.
Against all that, I really don’t remember any public discussion of the policy platform worth a damn. Beyond ways to dismiss it as communism or that Labour want to nationalise sausages (both via the BBC I might add, which shows how dismal and empty the debate was across the board and not just from the right-wing media tilting at their imaginary windmills).
Corbyn and what he stood for were discredited from the start and for the next 4 years, with the accusations and assertions getting increasingly more ridiculous. He was a danger to the status quo, and the powerful, of course. But when the agenda and the narrative is being set by the status quo-supporters and the powerful then what chance does anyone have in an election even against the worst party and worst character in real terms? Johnson ... JOHNSON ... was seen as a better choice and not just by those fooled by his populism. It’s evident that the establishment media predominantly thought so too given their record of amplifying damaging allegations and ignoring actual truths about Corbyn and his character while generally helping do the opposite for Johnson whose politics and character have never borne any scrutiny or he’d have been genuinely unelectable.
I’ll still post that Corbyn attracted millions back to Labour because it was true. And as much as anything that’s why he needed to be destroyed. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:04 - Oct 6 with 1785 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:56 - Oct 6 by Radlett_blue |
I don't think that Blair stood for anything at all either. however, his "Tory lite" strategy was very effective & no wonder Starmer is doing the same. It's his election to lose. |
I am no great fan of Blair but he was very good on social and constitutional issues (including civil partnerships and the ECHR) and even had the odd radical economic policy, such as the minimum wage. And what he lacked in substance, he made up for in spades with his evangelical persona. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 15:10]
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:06 - Oct 6 with 1771 views | Ryorry |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:00 - Oct 6 by Swansea_Blue |
One final point from me, albeit a shallow one. Politics these days is as much about personality as anything. Starmer's rousing victory speech today: 'you smashed the doors off'. Michael Caine it was not. That lack of charisma is going to hurt them I suspect, whatever's in their manifesto.
Anyway, that's hardly a new revelation, but today reminded me how he comes across as so dull.
Back to do some work! |
You're not wrong, it's how Johnson & Trump gained power & retained it for so long.
Shallow yes - but only by entrenched idiot voters, not yourself.
Haven't changed my mind re thinking that if Johnson & T.rump had been bald or had thinning, mousy hair, they'd probably not have been elected! |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:07 - Oct 6 with 1770 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:00 - Oct 6 by Swansea_Blue |
One final point from me, albeit a shallow one. Politics these days is as much about personality as anything. Starmer's rousing victory speech today: 'you smashed the doors off'. Michael Caine it was not. That lack of charisma is going to hurt them I suspect, whatever's in their manifesto.
Anyway, that's hardly a new revelation, but today reminded me how he comes across as so dull.
Back to do some work! |
Being dull and having no obvious policies does certainly make me think there is going to be little in the way of a honeymoon. By this stage of the election cycle Blair had captured the public's imagination, and he had a very easy ride (admittedly in much better circumstances) for several years. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 15:09]
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:09 - Oct 6 with 1753 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:52 - Oct 6 by Swansea_Blue |
In fairness to Corbynites, 2019 was a pretty unusual election being fought principally on that 'Get Brexit Done' ticket. So many people were bored of it all by then they were happy to believe anyone who said they'd make it go away. Labour's position on that critical issue at the time was unclear (relatively).
Other policies didn't get a look-in. Which is a bit of a shame, because there was much in that Labour manifesto that would have benefited the UK. And there was appetite for Corbynite policies generally, as seen only a couple of years earlier when Labour did much better under the same leadership. Without Brexit, who knows whether Labour could have built on 2017. But then without Brexit there wouldn't have been an election in 2109, so that's a moot point.
All I know for certain is that we need more of what was in the Labour 2019 manifesto than we have now. I suspect not much of it will be in the 2024 Labour manifesto though. |
We were talking about the 2017 election, and the millions of extra voters Theresa May(!) managed to attract to the Conservatives… |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:11 - Oct 6 with 1742 views | Ryorry |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:07 - Oct 6 by DJR |
Being dull and having no obvious policies does certainly make me think there is going to be little in the way of a honeymoon. By this stage of the election cycle Blair had captured the public's imagination, and he had a very easy ride (admittedly in much better circumstances) for several years. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 15:09]
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"having no obvious policies".
Jeez, we're not even in election year yet, you could at least wait & see, esp given that last time he/Labour came out with a good one, the tories almost immediately pulled the rug from under them by putting forward something along the same lines themselves. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:16 - Oct 6 with 1732 views | itfcjoe |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:54 - Oct 6 by DJR |
Starmer has undoubtedly been aided in his task by the astonishing self-destruction of the Tories in such a short period of time. In contrast, the Major government was more of a slow and lingering death.
The contrast though is that Smith and Blair appeared to stand for something, whereas Starmer doesn't.
As regards Smith, he didn't have the charisma of Blair but he had integrity and also a bit of a twinkle in his eye. He also had a long political background (unlike Starmer) and had even been Secretary of State for Trade in the Callaghan government.
He would undoubtedly have been more radical than Blair but in my view would still have obtained a very healthy majority because the traditionally Conservative civil servants In knew had completely given up on the Tories. And I feel that if he had been elected he would have put in place things that the Tories would have found less easy to dismantle when they came back to power.
As regards a comparison, Smith is a giant compared to Starmer, but then again so were those who were in the Cabinet in the first Blair government in comparison to those in the current Shadow Cabinet.
As it is, I would still maintain that Starmer (like Sunak) doesn't have a sound political grounding, coming as he did late to politics, which means to me that he is over-reliant on advisers. In that sense, he is no Blair, who had his own very good political instincts. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 14:59]
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Interesting post - thanks for that.
The only thing I would say is that Starmer seems to be getting quite good at 'politics', whereas Sunak just isn't at all yet |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:25 - Oct 6 with 1711 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:16 - Oct 6 by itfcjoe |
Interesting post - thanks for that.
The only thing I would say is that Starmer seems to be getting quite good at 'politics', whereas Sunak just isn't at all yet |
I suppose a large part of Sunak's problem is that he is being pulled in all directions by his party, and whatever he does will annoy one section. | | | |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:28 - Oct 6 with 1700 views | Darth_Koont |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 14:24 - Oct 6 by The_Flashing_Smile |
A resurgent Labour still wasn't a winning Labour. |
And getting the Tories out isn’t possible by replacing them with new Tories. Changing the guards isn’t “winning” either.
This is a bigger problem than just the next election but where we’ve been heading for decades. And it’s down to an absence of alternatives and particularly a debate around more evidence-based and best practice policies rather than whatever flag is run up a pole on a given day through politics based on weird ideology, donors/lobbyists and/or self-interest. Not to mention a simultaneous lack of vision or sense of responsibility for the wider society.
The same political landscape that has given us 13 years of the Tories is now putting forward Starmer’s Labour as the acceptable answer. With right-wingers in Labour to the fore and supported most vociferously by right-wingers in public who can’t defend the Tories but still want the policies/no real change.
Rather than having Starmer as the ideal unsullied vehicle for Corbyn’s social democratic policies, it seems that he’s being pushed as the ideal unsullied vehicle for a continuation of Tory policies. And I don’t think he and his Labour right supporters have the slightest problem with that, morally or ideologically. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:40 - Oct 6 with 1665 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:11 - Oct 6 by Ryorry |
"having no obvious policies".
Jeez, we're not even in election year yet, you could at least wait & see, esp given that last time he/Labour came out with a good one, the tories almost immediately pulled the rug from under them by putting forward something along the same lines themselves. |
Sorry, I probably expressed it a bit clumsily. It was the following that I was getting at (something Blair didn't have a problem with this far out from an election), but such a problem can be cured by having policies that resonate with the public and are stuck to.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sir-keir-starmer-ipsos-poll-what-labour
I might add that, with the supposed backlash against net zero, I imagine they could row back on their one really radical policy, the Green New Deal (which hasn't been greatly promoted to date anyway). [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 15:42]
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:43 - Oct 6 with 1646 views | Ryorry |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:25 - Oct 6 by DJR |
I suppose a large part of Sunak's problem is that he is being pulled in all directions by his party, and whatever he does will annoy one section. |
John Selwyn Gummer, now Baron Deben, has just given him & the current bunch of tories a right royal roasting on 'Hard Talk' (BBC World Service).
Good to hear him now so passionate about the environment & climate change - one of the very few senior politicians I've heard mention concern for his kids' & grandkids' futures. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:45 - Oct 6 with 1634 views | Ryorry |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:40 - Oct 6 by DJR |
Sorry, I probably expressed it a bit clumsily. It was the following that I was getting at (something Blair didn't have a problem with this far out from an election), but such a problem can be cured by having policies that resonate with the public and are stuck to.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sir-keir-starmer-ipsos-poll-what-labour
I might add that, with the supposed backlash against net zero, I imagine they could row back on their one really radical policy, the Green New Deal (which hasn't been greatly promoted to date anyway). [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 15:42]
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Will give that a read later, ta. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 16:39 - Oct 6 with 1581 views | Zapers |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:25 - Oct 6 by DJR |
I suppose a large part of Sunak's problem is that he is being pulled in all directions by his party, and whatever he does will annoy one section. |
And you don't think the same thing will happen to Starmer, eventually? |  | | |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 16:54 - Oct 6 with 1565 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 16:39 - Oct 6 by Zapers |
And you don't think the same thing will happen to Starmer, eventually? |
I don't think it will from his own party because he has control of the NEC and the support of his MPs.
I am not aware of those on the left (who are a tiny minority) being particularly problematic, and I certainly recall an interview with John McDonnell not that long ago which indicated he was pretty supportive of Starmer. Having said that, I suppose they also have the Sword of Damocles hanging over them.
The media is a different kettle of fish because he may well be blown off course by them. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 16:58]
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 18:29 - Oct 6 with 1498 views | DJR |
Going back to the main point of this thread, this is an interesting analysis from the Tony Blair Institute, which is well worth a read. It's hot off the press, and includes some very interesting polling results which, among other things indicate Yes for independence is currently leading, the SNP are on course for the same number of seats as in 2017 (roughly 34 out of 57), and 47% of SNP voters want an independence poll deferred until it appears likely there is a majority for independence.
https://www.institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/more-united-than-d [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 18:36]
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 20:09 - Oct 6 with 1422 views | Darth_Koont |
Labour Against Antisemitism and the Jewish Chronicle …
Gmpf. Talking of untrustworthy and dodgy barrel scrapers, you’d be hard pressed to find less serious political activists and journalists anywhere.
They’re rabid weaponising loons though. So I get the attraction. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 20:13 - Oct 6 with 1408 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 15:09 - Oct 6 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
We were talking about the 2017 election, and the millions of extra voters Theresa May(!) managed to attract to the Conservatives… |
Ah right. Although even in the 2017 election Labour increased their vote share by 9.6% and it resulted in a hung parliament:
- Tories gained 2.3 million votes and lost 13 seats
- Labour gained 3.5 million votes and 30 seats
So they did ok and there was obviously some appetite for what they were offering under Corbyn.
I don't know how people changed their vote between 2015 and 2017, but UKIP lost 3.2(ish) million votes between those 2 elections, and you'd imagine that a lot of those went to the Tories. Brexit seems to be at play again. I think that's distorted every general election we've had since 2015. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 20:40 - Oct 6 with 1391 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 20:09 - Oct 6 by Darth_Koont |
Labour Against Antisemitism and the Jewish Chronicle …
Gmpf. Talking of untrustworthy and dodgy barrel scrapers, you’d be hard pressed to find less serious political activists and journalists anywhere.
They’re rabid weaponising loons though. So I get the attraction. |
You favourite SNP propaganda rag, the National?
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23770100.michael-shanks-accused-brexit-flip-fl
Shanks quit Labour on the day of the European elections that year when Jeremy Corbyn was leader of the party, adding that there was “woefully inadequate” tackling of antisemitism.
Shanks later said he was “happy to rejoin when Keir Starmer took clear action to root out antisemitism and I’ve been proud to campaign for Labour ever since”. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 20:43 - Oct 6 with 1384 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 20:13 - Oct 6 by Swansea_Blue |
Ah right. Although even in the 2017 election Labour increased their vote share by 9.6% and it resulted in a hung parliament:
- Tories gained 2.3 million votes and lost 13 seats
- Labour gained 3.5 million votes and 30 seats
So they did ok and there was obviously some appetite for what they were offering under Corbyn.
I don't know how people changed their vote between 2015 and 2017, but UKIP lost 3.2(ish) million votes between those 2 elections, and you'd imagine that a lot of those went to the Tories. Brexit seems to be at play again. I think that's distorted every general election we've had since 2015. |
Just weeks before the election the Tories had a 20 point lead and cleaned up in the local elections. May and her team gambled on introducing the dementia tax, knowing it would alenat a lot of her voters but not enough to wipe out such a significant lead.
That gamble failed. | |
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