| Huge win for Labour in Scotland 06:46 - Oct 6 with 16339 views | GlasgowBlue |
Nationalists imploding. Tory collapse. Labour majority at the next election.
After years of mediocre leadership, Scottish Labour has been revitalised by Anas Sarwar, who is like a breath of fresh air.
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:55 - Oct 6 with 1570 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:40 - Oct 6 by BanksterDebtSlave |
I'm surprised nobody has picked up on this!
....not! |
What is to pick up on? Starmer's Labour is most likely going to have to pay damages to Labour employees as a result of a data breach by his predecessor's acolytes.
They'd rather not raise the spectre of Corbyn and antisemitism during an election year. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:55 - Oct 6 with 1571 views | Guthrum |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:36 - Oct 6 by GlasgowBlue |
Credit where credit is due. Corbyn was the only person who was able to persuade former miners in Bolsover to brave the torrential rain and cold in the middle of December in order to vote Tory.
A remarkable achievement. |
Tho one aspect of this is that an increasingly smaller proportion of the electorate in those places were ever miners. They'd have to be in their fifties or sixties to have ever worked down the pit. Those in their 20s and 30s were not even born when the miners strike happened.
The Labour Party connection is based more on tradition and memory than something direct like trade union membership. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:56 - Oct 6 with 1560 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:55 - Oct 6 by Guthrum |
Tho one aspect of this is that an increasingly smaller proportion of the electorate in those places were ever miners. They'd have to be in their fifties or sixties to have ever worked down the pit. Those in their 20s and 30s were not even born when the miners strike happened.
The Labour Party connection is based more on tradition and memory than something direct like trade union membership. |
Stop ruining my slightly amusing soundbite!!!!! | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:00 - Oct 6 with 1549 views | Radlett_blue |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 09:39 - Oct 6 by baxterbasics |
If Labour are able to win back ground form the SNP in Scotland, that should be their majority guaranteed in the coming GE. |
Exactly. I guess there is considerable dissatisfaction with the SNP, who have been running Scotland for 15 years & the scandals won't have helped. The low turnout & big swing are nothing new in by-elections, but Labour could make some massive gains in Scotland in the General Election next year, as they only hold 2 of the 59 Scottish seats in Westminster. Maybe Scottish voters are tired of the constant harking on about independence, which at least half of them know is unrealistic. The Tories will probably lose most of their Scottish seats, although a Labour/SNP split might actually help them. They are doomed to defeat in the next General election, although a Scottish revival will make it much easier for Labour to gain an overall majority, which I think is preferable to a Labour/SNP coalition. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:01 - Oct 6 with 1543 views | giant_stow |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:27 - Oct 6 by BanksterDebtSlave |
If that is all you meant then I'm surprised you didn’t take issue with GB's use of "huge!"
But anyway, GB's new conservative party won....hurrah. |
"huge" is fine - it was a bigger winning margin than anyone expected.
Nationalists lost - perfect. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:08 - Oct 6 with 1518 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
To try and get the thread back on the more relevant track of "Does this herald a return to double digit Scottish Labour Westminster MPs at the next General Election?"
The point about turnout is important. It is reasonable to assume that at least half as many people again, and possibly more, will vote in that Constituency at a General Election. That alone is enough to wipe out the new Labour MPs majority, if they were previous SNP voters who stayed away due to Ferrier's transgressions, but who weren't prepared to vote Labour, or for a Unionist party.
I am cautious about extrapolating this and drawing wider conclusions, largely because of the particular circumstances of a By-Election caused by public ballot. If a much loved MP dies and you see a swing away from their party at the resulting By-Election, then that is indicative of a swing in political views. But if people stay away after a public trust scandal, then that indicates that the Party was unable to persuade voters to vote positively for their Party.
So language around a swing from SNP to Labour may not be accurate when that movement in vote share may have been caused by people staying away in protest at the previous MPs behaviour, in a By-Election for a Westminster Parliament that many of the SNPs core vote don't want to be part of for a relatively short period of time, when the Government has a large majority.
In short, I read this as SNP voters sending a clear message to Ferrier: we are staying at home because you didn't.
My observation is that Anas Sarwar comes across very well. He is warm and likeable.
Humza Yousaf has had about the worst possible set of cards dealt to him. Sturgeon at a Police Station, CSI:Glasgow being filmed at her home, and now an unwinnable By-Election. Critically, many of the biggest questions marks over SNP in Government can also be laid at his door, as previous Scottish Health Secretary. He comes across as care-worn and jaded, to me. I think that is totally understandable, but it doesn't leave him in a good position to rally a fight-back. |  | | |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:13 - Oct 6 with 1511 views | blueasfook |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:01 - Oct 6 by giant_stow |
"huge" is fine - it was a bigger winning margin than anyone expected.
Nationalists lost - perfect. |
Any party that has "Nationalists" in its name should not be trusted. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:16 - Oct 6 with 1495 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:55 - Oct 6 by GlasgowBlue |
What is to pick up on? Starmer's Labour is most likely going to have to pay damages to Labour employees as a result of a data breach by his predecessor's acolytes.
They'd rather not raise the spectre of Corbyn and antisemitism during an election year. |
But you yourself welcomed Starmer's approach to Corbyn over Anti-Semitism, so what is there to raise? Other than a vague smear of someone who, in your opinion, has done the right thing? | | | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:29 - Oct 6 with 1469 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:08 - Oct 6 by ArnoldMoorhen |
To try and get the thread back on the more relevant track of "Does this herald a return to double digit Scottish Labour Westminster MPs at the next General Election?"
The point about turnout is important. It is reasonable to assume that at least half as many people again, and possibly more, will vote in that Constituency at a General Election. That alone is enough to wipe out the new Labour MPs majority, if they were previous SNP voters who stayed away due to Ferrier's transgressions, but who weren't prepared to vote Labour, or for a Unionist party.
I am cautious about extrapolating this and drawing wider conclusions, largely because of the particular circumstances of a By-Election caused by public ballot. If a much loved MP dies and you see a swing away from their party at the resulting By-Election, then that is indicative of a swing in political views. But if people stay away after a public trust scandal, then that indicates that the Party was unable to persuade voters to vote positively for their Party.
So language around a swing from SNP to Labour may not be accurate when that movement in vote share may have been caused by people staying away in protest at the previous MPs behaviour, in a By-Election for a Westminster Parliament that many of the SNPs core vote don't want to be part of for a relatively short period of time, when the Government has a large majority.
In short, I read this as SNP voters sending a clear message to Ferrier: we are staying at home because you didn't.
My observation is that Anas Sarwar comes across very well. He is warm and likeable.
Humza Yousaf has had about the worst possible set of cards dealt to him. Sturgeon at a Police Station, CSI:Glasgow being filmed at her home, and now an unwinnable By-Election. Critically, many of the biggest questions marks over SNP in Government can also be laid at his door, as previous Scottish Health Secretary. He comes across as care-worn and jaded, to me. I think that is totally understandable, but it doesn't leave him in a good position to rally a fight-back. |
It's not a low turnout, though, in context. It's about right, and what was expected, for a by-election. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:31 - Oct 6 with 1466 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 10:11 - Oct 6 by Darth_Koont |
Disappointing but hardly a surprise. Given the villainous Tories setting the mood music and an incumbent SNP government who certainly have had some self-inflicted damage from internal disagreements but have their hands largely tied on how to mitigate against the damage caused by inadequate right-wing UK governments.
Meanwhile Labour need no answers or policies as they coast along with scant media scrutiny. I don’t see the same easy path at a general election, certainly in Scotland where they will have to state their case for government much more clearly and answer for it.
At the moment, people can project onto Labour almost anything they want. Like them being in any way progressive and not committed to the status quo and propping up the failing neoliberal settlement.
But seeing a life-long Tory, Brexiteer and anti-social democracy right-winger like you celebrating should set off an alarm bell. 😬 |
"Disappointing" says it all.
Never thought I'd see a world in which Glassers became Labour and you became Tory, yet here we are. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:36 - Oct 6 with 1438 views | Darth_Koont |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:31 - Oct 6 by The_Flashing_Smile |
"Disappointing" says it all.
Never thought I'd see a world in which Glassers became Labour and you became Tory, yet here we are. |
Saw this the other day but I think this sums up my position pretty well re: the challenges facing the UK and where the current inadequate and right-wing Labour Party is.
So, I could ask you why you’re also on the same side. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:37 - Oct 6 with 1435 views | giant_stow |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:31 - Oct 6 by The_Flashing_Smile |
"Disappointing" says it all.
Never thought I'd see a world in which Glassers became Labour and you became Tory, yet here we are. |
Its a very strange world where plenty of left-wingers seem to actively advocate against the the only chance of removing the corrupt shambolic tories. I suspect many of them don't have skin in the game / its just an academic exercise for them. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:39 - Oct 6 with 1429 views | Darth_Koont |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:13 - Oct 6 by blueasfook |
Any party that has "Nationalists" in its name should not be trusted. |
🤣
I wonder how long it takes ... | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:42 - Oct 6 with 1422 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:32 - Oct 6 by Ryorry |
Dangerous to take anything for granted though, complacency is an issue too. |
And interesting to note that despite Labour being obliterated in Scotland from 2015 onwards, they actually won this seat in 2017.
In addition, and despite the recent travails of the SNP, support for independence has not been affected.
As it is the SNP is the most progressive major party in the UK, and I, as someone who favours social democracy, can only dream that the Labour Party were anything remotely as progressive. |  | | |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:43 - Oct 6 with 1415 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:36 - Oct 6 by Darth_Koont |
Saw this the other day but I think this sums up my position pretty well re: the challenges facing the UK and where the current inadequate and right-wing Labour Party is.
So, I could ask you why you’re also on the same side. |
Well your premise is wrong for starters. Labour aren't the same as the Conservatives. What they're doing is not rocking the boat. It's obvious, and it's working.
I wanted Corbyn's policies more than anything. But you know what? The country didn't. So what do you do? Change or move to another country.
Banging on about Corbyn's policies now achieves nothing other than enabling the Tories. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:45 - Oct 6 with 1404 views | itfcjoe |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:37 - Oct 6 by giant_stow |
Its a very strange world where plenty of left-wingers seem to actively advocate against the the only chance of removing the corrupt shambolic tories. I suspect many of them don't have skin in the game / its just an academic exercise for them. |
Yep, they aren't exactly on the coal face are they - easy to opine from a relative ivory tower over people who need change now, not after another election cycle |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:45 - Oct 6 with 1402 views | Darth_Koont |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 11:55 - Oct 6 by GlasgowBlue |
What is to pick up on? Starmer's Labour is most likely going to have to pay damages to Labour employees as a result of a data breach by his predecessor's acolytes.
They'd rather not raise the spectre of Corbyn and antisemitism during an election year. |
They’d rather not raise the spectre of the actual evidence in a case that shows the Labour right for who they are. And indeed gives a sobering glimpse into the internal sabotage of HQ staffers and weaponisation of antisemitism as a political and factional tool that’s very different from the official and “accepted” narrative being pushed.
Juicy stuff. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:51 - Oct 6 with 1376 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:08 - Oct 6 by ArnoldMoorhen |
To try and get the thread back on the more relevant track of "Does this herald a return to double digit Scottish Labour Westminster MPs at the next General Election?"
The point about turnout is important. It is reasonable to assume that at least half as many people again, and possibly more, will vote in that Constituency at a General Election. That alone is enough to wipe out the new Labour MPs majority, if they were previous SNP voters who stayed away due to Ferrier's transgressions, but who weren't prepared to vote Labour, or for a Unionist party.
I am cautious about extrapolating this and drawing wider conclusions, largely because of the particular circumstances of a By-Election caused by public ballot. If a much loved MP dies and you see a swing away from their party at the resulting By-Election, then that is indicative of a swing in political views. But if people stay away after a public trust scandal, then that indicates that the Party was unable to persuade voters to vote positively for their Party.
So language around a swing from SNP to Labour may not be accurate when that movement in vote share may have been caused by people staying away in protest at the previous MPs behaviour, in a By-Election for a Westminster Parliament that many of the SNPs core vote don't want to be part of for a relatively short period of time, when the Government has a large majority.
In short, I read this as SNP voters sending a clear message to Ferrier: we are staying at home because you didn't.
My observation is that Anas Sarwar comes across very well. He is warm and likeable.
Humza Yousaf has had about the worst possible set of cards dealt to him. Sturgeon at a Police Station, CSI:Glasgow being filmed at her home, and now an unwinnable By-Election. Critically, many of the biggest questions marks over SNP in Government can also be laid at his door, as previous Scottish Health Secretary. He comes across as care-worn and jaded, to me. I think that is totally understandable, but it doesn't leave him in a good position to rally a fight-back. |
Well done for trying to get the thread back on track and for, what seems to me, an informed take. As is often the case, many threads get side-tracked and bogged down by people who seem to bear grudges, so that proper debate goes out of the window.
To add to your post, and as I mentioned above, Labour actually won the seat in 2017. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 13:11]
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:53 - Oct 6 with 1372 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:13 - Oct 6 by blueasfook |
Any party that has "Nationalists" in its name should not be trusted. |
You obviously don't realise the party name is the Scottish National Party. | | | |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:55 - Oct 6 with 1369 views | Ryorry |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:37 - Oct 6 by giant_stow |
Its a very strange world where plenty of left-wingers seem to actively advocate against the the only chance of removing the corrupt shambolic tories. I suspect many of them don't have skin in the game / its just an academic exercise for them. |
You nailed it with "its just an academic exercise for them".
Idealism is great, but not if it strangles people up into maintaining a bar so high that they won't vote for anything less, so nothing ever changes (indeed is dangerously sliding further far right under the current bunch of malevolent tories).
There needs to be a bit of realism if the slide is to be stopped. Fortunately I think that's becoming increasingly obvious to the majority of voters with reasonable intelligence & without massive vested interests. |  |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:56 - Oct 6 with 1368 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 08:53 - Oct 6 by GlasgowBlue |
What was it they used to say?
“If people can’t support the democratically elected leader of the Labour Party then they should fcuk off and join the Tories”. |
To be fair, that was before someone lied to members to get elected as leader. There are always nuances. |  | | |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 13:05 - Oct 6 with 1324 views | DJR |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:55 - Oct 6 by Ryorry |
You nailed it with "its just an academic exercise for them".
Idealism is great, but not if it strangles people up into maintaining a bar so high that they won't vote for anything less, so nothing ever changes (indeed is dangerously sliding further far right under the current bunch of malevolent tories).
There needs to be a bit of realism if the slide is to be stopped. Fortunately I think that's becoming increasingly obvious to the majority of voters with reasonable intelligence & without massive vested interests. |
Sadly it's an academic exercise for millions, including me, because our vote makes absolutely no difference to the outcome, in my case because the Tories have no chance of ever losing the seat.
As it is, I am critical of the rightward drift of the party, but will still vote for them, but it's not just left wingers who are concerned about Starmer's approach, if the following is anything to go by.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/05/labour-figures-from-1997-victor
This from Alastair Campbell in the article certainly points to a completely different approach these days.
“[In 1996 and 1997] we were not happy if we were not making the news and we weren’t making the weather and we weren’t actually being attacked. Because sometimes being attacked is the only way that you can get out there and make your case.”
Instead, Starmer said after Uxbridge that Labour were doing something wrong if one of its policies featured on a Tory leaflet, an absolutely astonishing statement for a political party. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 13:14]
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 13:09 - Oct 6 with 1307 views | Darth_Koont |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:43 - Oct 6 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Well your premise is wrong for starters. Labour aren't the same as the Conservatives. What they're doing is not rocking the boat. It's obvious, and it's working.
I wanted Corbyn's policies more than anything. But you know what? The country didn't. So what do you do? Change or move to another country.
Banging on about Corbyn's policies now achieves nothing other than enabling the Tories. |
The country did want those policies with most of them having majority support. In 2017 millions of people did come back to Labour and this platform after haemorrhaging votes ever since 1997. After all, New Labour didn’t deliver much that was lasting after 13 years except cementing the neoliberal settlement and the overall slide right.
2019 was a mess. On one hand it was all about Brexit. On the other hand, there has never been a more sustained, OTT and largely unevidenced attack on a political leader, as well as social democracy and the left more generally. The policies themselves were pointedly ignored and put in a package bespattered with mud to dismiss them.
The hope was that Starmer was true to his word re: seeing the 2017 manifesto as a foundational document and one he backed by his 10 pledges. Social democratic policies without being a target for the smeary personal attacks was his leadership pitch. I bought that fully but the speed and ease with which he has dropped all those pledges and policies (and not been criticised in the slightest in the mainstream) speaks volumes.
As bad as the Tories are, and they are f***ing awful, their underlying danger is what they believe is right for a modern economy and society, and what is right for their own self-interest and the interests of their donors/backers/lobbyists. Those holding onto the reins of the current Labour Party and sidelining the internal democracy within are the same people who will operate in much the same way. Maybe occasionally attending a Pride march to cosplay as progressive. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 13:13 - Oct 6 with 1281 views | Darth_Koont |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 12:37 - Oct 6 by giant_stow |
Its a very strange world where plenty of left-wingers seem to actively advocate against the the only chance of removing the corrupt shambolic tories. I suspect many of them don't have skin in the game / its just an academic exercise for them. |
It’s an even stranger world if the left is meant to support the right.
Of course, the left have skin in the game. That’s why it’s not a game. | |
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| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 13:14 - Oct 6 with 1265 views | itfcjoe |
| Huge win for Labour in Scotland on 13:05 - Oct 6 by DJR |
Sadly it's an academic exercise for millions, including me, because our vote makes absolutely no difference to the outcome, in my case because the Tories have no chance of ever losing the seat.
As it is, I am critical of the rightward drift of the party, but will still vote for them, but it's not just left wingers who are concerned about Starmer's approach, if the following is anything to go by.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/05/labour-figures-from-1997-victor
This from Alastair Campbell in the article certainly points to a completely different approach these days.
“[In 1996 and 1997] we were not happy if we were not making the news and we weren’t making the weather and we weren’t actually being attacked. Because sometimes being attacked is the only way that you can get out there and make your case.”
Instead, Starmer said after Uxbridge that Labour were doing something wrong if one of its policies featured on a Tory leaflet, an absolutely astonishing statement for a political party. [Post edited 6 Oct 2023 13:14]
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Campbell does also talk about Starmer needing to do what Labour did in 10 years over 5 - detoxify the party after electoral wipe out, get everything on the straight and narrow and make it electable again, then sell a positive vision going forwards.
It feels very much like 2 down, 1 to go, and that 1 needs to start soon to win the next election with a majority - but they are following the same process with regards to spending commitments and it is dull and will need to improve between now and the next GE, and sure that it will do.
Interesting point from John Sopel yesterday, where he says people keep saying is the next election going to be 1992 or 1997, and he likens the Labour party more to 1994 and Keir Starmer to John Smith, Smith before my time, but as both good leaders, across the detail, going in the right direction but without the personality or popularity of a Blair.....we never found out what would have happened had Smith let Labour into an election | |
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