| Thinking out loud 18:16 - Oct 9 with 7763 views | Unhinged_dynamo |
This calendar year we are averaging 2.33 ppg
This season so far we are averaging 2.54 ppg
Leeds are currently in 5th on 19 points and are more than likely the most capable team below us that could chase us down (squad depth and quality, manager etc)
If our ppg drops due to a bad run and we average 2 ppg from here on in we would still achieve 98
Leeds would need to increase their ppg from 1.72 to 2.3 to reach 99 which although not impossible would be a big ask
If the dream is to come true there is a hell of a long way to go and anything can happen but the team have really put themselves in a great position |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 18:38 - Oct 9 with 3541 views | xrayspecs |
A top six finish will be a very good outcome this season and that is far from certain.
We have come out on the right end of some very close games. We could easily have had less than 20 points to date. Hung on against a Sunderland team who were toothless up front, did not deserve the win at QPR, needed Hladky heroics and a late equaliser at Huddersfield. Cardiff were cruising until they decided to protect their two goal lead. We needed Hladky face to save us a point against Southampton. We could have got something from Leeds game to be fair.
Our PPG will not be sustained at the current levels and you cannot assume 2ppg, that itself is exceptional form.
We have had a head start on teams who are still integrating new players, which has been great.
Leicester, Leeds and Southampton have quality and will be there or thereabouts for automatic promotion. Sunderland and Boro starting to find their form too. I also expect to see Coventry move up the table as their new players settle in.
Great to have a lead over third but to assume we are going to maintain or grow this gap given the quality in this division is far too optimistic for me. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 18:52 - Oct 9 with 3485 views | Herbivore |
| Thinking out loud on 18:38 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
A top six finish will be a very good outcome this season and that is far from certain.
We have come out on the right end of some very close games. We could easily have had less than 20 points to date. Hung on against a Sunderland team who were toothless up front, did not deserve the win at QPR, needed Hladky heroics and a late equaliser at Huddersfield. Cardiff were cruising until they decided to protect their two goal lead. We needed Hladky face to save us a point against Southampton. We could have got something from Leeds game to be fair.
Our PPG will not be sustained at the current levels and you cannot assume 2ppg, that itself is exceptional form.
We have had a head start on teams who are still integrating new players, which has been great.
Leicester, Leeds and Southampton have quality and will be there or thereabouts for automatic promotion. Sunderland and Boro starting to find their form too. I also expect to see Coventry move up the table as their new players settle in.
Great to have a lead over third but to assume we are going to maintain or grow this gap given the quality in this division is far too optimistic for me. |
Whilst maintaining 2 PPG is going to be very hard, I think your take on our season so far is needlessly pessimistic. We aren't in a false position, we have the best xG difference in the league: https://footystats.org/england/championship/xg
We've maximised our start but it's not been lucky. |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 18:52 - Oct 9 with 3480 views | BiGDonnie |
| Thinking out loud on 18:38 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
A top six finish will be a very good outcome this season and that is far from certain.
We have come out on the right end of some very close games. We could easily have had less than 20 points to date. Hung on against a Sunderland team who were toothless up front, did not deserve the win at QPR, needed Hladky heroics and a late equaliser at Huddersfield. Cardiff were cruising until they decided to protect their two goal lead. We needed Hladky face to save us a point against Southampton. We could have got something from Leeds game to be fair.
Our PPG will not be sustained at the current levels and you cannot assume 2ppg, that itself is exceptional form.
We have had a head start on teams who are still integrating new players, which has been great.
Leicester, Leeds and Southampton have quality and will be there or thereabouts for automatic promotion. Sunderland and Boro starting to find their form too. I also expect to see Coventry move up the table as their new players settle in.
Great to have a lead over third but to assume we are going to maintain or grow this gap given the quality in this division is far too optimistic for me. |
How do you know our PPG won't be sustained yet can guarantee the certain other teams will be in the automatic hunt?
Sunderland got spanked 4-0 on Friday. |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 18:54 - Oct 9 with 3442 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Thinking out loud on 18:38 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
A top six finish will be a very good outcome this season and that is far from certain.
We have come out on the right end of some very close games. We could easily have had less than 20 points to date. Hung on against a Sunderland team who were toothless up front, did not deserve the win at QPR, needed Hladky heroics and a late equaliser at Huddersfield. Cardiff were cruising until they decided to protect their two goal lead. We needed Hladky face to save us a point against Southampton. We could have got something from Leeds game to be fair.
Our PPG will not be sustained at the current levels and you cannot assume 2ppg, that itself is exceptional form.
We have had a head start on teams who are still integrating new players, which has been great.
Leicester, Leeds and Southampton have quality and will be there or thereabouts for automatic promotion. Sunderland and Boro starting to find their form too. I also expect to see Coventry move up the table as their new players settle in.
Great to have a lead over third but to assume we are going to maintain or grow this gap given the quality in this division is far too optimistic for me. |
I think you've been too pessimistic there TBH. I think we deserved to win at QPR, hanging on is part of the game, and your goalie is there to stop stuff! |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Thinking out loud on 18:58 - Oct 9 with 3461 views | norfsufblue |
There was I thinking this was another Ed Sheeran thread  |  | | |
| Thinking out loud on 19:00 - Oct 9 with 3447 views | BiGDonnie |
| Thinking out loud on 18:54 - Oct 9 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I think you've been too pessimistic there TBH. I think we deserved to win at QPR, hanging on is part of the game, and your goalie is there to stop stuff! |
It's cool to be pessimistic and put us down on here. Apparently. | |
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| Thinking out loud on 19:03 - Oct 9 with 3433 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 18:52 - Oct 9 by Herbivore |
Whilst maintaining 2 PPG is going to be very hard, I think your take on our season so far is needlessly pessimistic. We aren't in a false position, we have the best xG difference in the league: https://footystats.org/england/championship/xg
We've maximised our start but it's not been lucky. |
We have maximised our advantage of momentum and a settled squad. That will diminish over time. Still believe it is fine margins in most games and we could have easily dropped more than the five points we have this season. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 19:07 - Oct 9 with 3415 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 18:52 - Oct 9 by BiGDonnie |
How do you know our PPG won't be sustained yet can guarantee the certain other teams will be in the automatic hunt?
Sunderland got spanked 4-0 on Friday. |
Our current PPG is so far off the scale of what has been achieved in the history of this league. Do you believe that we can maintain our current ppg. That would be close to 120 points for the season. As much as I am enjoying this season, I do not believe we will keep this up.
Sunderland had a player sent off before conceding four goals. They are trending upwards. | | | |
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| Thinking out loud on 19:08 - Oct 9 with 3403 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 19:00 - Oct 9 by BiGDonnie |
It's cool to be pessimistic and put us down on here. Apparently. |
I am neither cool nor pessimistic. Realistic perhaps? | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 19:10 - Oct 9 with 3381 views | BiGDonnie |
| Thinking out loud on 19:08 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
I am neither cool nor pessimistic. Realistic perhaps? |
Think you're being massively pessimistic tbh.
When exactly will our momentum 'diminish'? | |
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| Thinking out loud on 19:16 - Oct 9 with 3328 views | burnbudgiesburn |
Bit weird to think that throughout history teams that get promoted don't get the better of fine margins. So what?
I think we've deserved to win all of our games this season, and only count the QPR game as fortunate due to them stuffing up 2 big chances. On overall flow of the game we were the better team.
Even the Leeds defeat, we were on top on every other metric than the goals due to a crazy 10 minutes. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 19:21 - Oct 9 with 3267 views | textbackup |
Putting in the hard graft now, and accumulating a vast number of points early doors is so important. Massively reduces the pressure as season presses.
We could lose to leeds, and still be 5 points ahead of 3rd.
If we attack the next 5/7 games and carry on this insane form I dread to think the points clear we could be |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 19:29 - Oct 9 with 3219 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 19:10 - Oct 9 by BiGDonnie |
Think you're being massively pessimistic tbh.
When exactly will our momentum 'diminish'? |
For the quality of Southampton’s squad (£150m of fees paid in the side they fielded against us, they appeared to be struggling to implement the way Russell Martin wants them to play. Our goal was from them losing possession playing out. They struggled in other early season games for the same reason. I watched them v Leeds and they have got the system working a lot better and beat Leeds comfortably. They will get better as the season progresses.
Leeds struggled early in the season. Also lots of player churn but recent results have got them up the table. They have a £50m forward line.
I can make similar arguments for Sunderland (who have signed strikers since we played them) and to a lesser extent Boro, again lots of player churn but recent results more in line with expectations.
Leicester have been the side that have kept finding a way to win despite losing a lot of key players. Similar to us, I believe their ppg season to date flatters them.
As much as I am loving this season, I do find projections based on early season games too simplistic and the OP that Leeds are the only side who can catch us but that would be a big ask may not age well. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 19:31]
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| Thinking out loud on 19:56 - Oct 9 with 3135 views | Vegtablue |
| Thinking out loud on 18:52 - Oct 9 by Herbivore |
Whilst maintaining 2 PPG is going to be very hard, I think your take on our season so far is needlessly pessimistic. We aren't in a false position, we have the best xG difference in the league: https://footystats.org/england/championship/xg
We've maximised our start but it's not been lucky. |
To further support this we are 2nd in the xG league table, which awards points on a match-by-match basis and will update on Tuesday. We're just three points above expectation according to them, which is very reassuring. Preston are the only side significantly out of place in the top 6, as much as we've maximised our start and others haven't. https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/
We enter a new phase after this break. We've played two bursts of brilliantly energetic football and what follows is 10 matches in under 40 days. We've left a league that is second or third lowest in Europe for sprints and high intensity play and joined one that is second or third highest. We're the highest intensity team in a high intensity league and ball-in-play time is also significantly up, so this is my question mark far more than performances so far. Can we literally keep up the pace?
Bielsa's Leeds did it I think. We could probably do with extra time going back to how it used to be! If our pace does slow down, will this affect others proportionally or are many dialled into an intensity that they will sustain throughout? Currently our advanced players exhaust themselves before handing over to our second wave. We've shown our depth but will injuries force some starters to slow down? Hopefully we're simply seeing what PL fitness levels look like and I'm just in awe of how much work we do compared to others. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 20:00 - Oct 9 with 3092 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Thinking out loud on 19:29 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
For the quality of Southampton’s squad (£150m of fees paid in the side they fielded against us, they appeared to be struggling to implement the way Russell Martin wants them to play. Our goal was from them losing possession playing out. They struggled in other early season games for the same reason. I watched them v Leeds and they have got the system working a lot better and beat Leeds comfortably. They will get better as the season progresses.
Leeds struggled early in the season. Also lots of player churn but recent results have got them up the table. They have a £50m forward line.
I can make similar arguments for Sunderland (who have signed strikers since we played them) and to a lesser extent Boro, again lots of player churn but recent results more in line with expectations.
Leicester have been the side that have kept finding a way to win despite losing a lot of key players. Similar to us, I believe their ppg season to date flatters them.
As much as I am loving this season, I do find projections based on early season games too simplistic and the OP that Leeds are the only side who can catch us but that would be a big ask may not age well. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 19:31]
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" our goal was from them playing out"
That would be because town have the highest number of interceptions in the opposition half in the league and a pressing style worked on in training. That goal was scored by a new player. Someone you could say was still gelling with his teammates.
Leeds recently lost 3 1 to that same side that's struggled to play the way the manager wants. Leeds also only won 1-0 against qpr.
Sunderland you mention their winning spree
They've played 4 of the bottom 5. And only won 2 against sides in top 10.
If you look into town as you other clubs. You could say. We've started the season with 2nd choice goalkeeper.
Fullbacks have had injury problems. We missed our starting striker for half the fixtures we've played, we've had broadhead injured for some etc etc.
We've also had to very quickly get used the championship level of football which is by far superior to league 1. We aren't even in control of the ball as much as we were last season. Yet have Learned new ways of playing our usual style without the need to play lambert ball on our own half. |  |
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| Heh on 20:08 - Oct 9 with 3105 views | Dyland |
| Thinking out loud on 18:38 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
A top six finish will be a very good outcome this season and that is far from certain.
We have come out on the right end of some very close games. We could easily have had less than 20 points to date. Hung on against a Sunderland team who were toothless up front, did not deserve the win at QPR, needed Hladky heroics and a late equaliser at Huddersfield. Cardiff were cruising until they decided to protect their two goal lead. We needed Hladky face to save us a point against Southampton. We could have got something from Leeds game to be fair.
Our PPG will not be sustained at the current levels and you cannot assume 2ppg, that itself is exceptional form.
We have had a head start on teams who are still integrating new players, which has been great.
Leicester, Leeds and Southampton have quality and will be there or thereabouts for automatic promotion. Sunderland and Boro starting to find their form too. I also expect to see Coventry move up the table as their new players settle in.
Great to have a lead over third but to assume we are going to maintain or grow this gap given the quality in this division is far too optimistic for me. |
You've listed all the oppo near misses and should-have-beens and none of ours. And saying "Hladky heroics" assumes no other goalies have had blinders, whilst needing "a late equaliser"...er, well, so what? Fergie's Man U "needed" last gasp goals plenty often.
Cheers Eeyore x |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 20:17 - Oct 9 with 3066 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 19:56 - Oct 9 by Vegtablue |
To further support this we are 2nd in the xG league table, which awards points on a match-by-match basis and will update on Tuesday. We're just three points above expectation according to them, which is very reassuring. Preston are the only side significantly out of place in the top 6, as much as we've maximised our start and others haven't. https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/
We enter a new phase after this break. We've played two bursts of brilliantly energetic football and what follows is 10 matches in under 40 days. We've left a league that is second or third lowest in Europe for sprints and high intensity play and joined one that is second or third highest. We're the highest intensity team in a high intensity league and ball-in-play time is also significantly up, so this is my question mark far more than performances so far. Can we literally keep up the pace?
Bielsa's Leeds did it I think. We could probably do with extra time going back to how it used to be! If our pace does slow down, will this affect others proportionally or are many dialled into an intensity that they will sustain throughout? Currently our advanced players exhaust themselves before handing over to our second wave. We've shown our depth but will injuries force some starters to slow down? Hopefully we're simply seeing what PL fitness levels look like and I'm just in awe of how much work we do compared to others. |
Some interesting points.
xG is a useful analytic but not foolproof. Plymouth proved that last season, I believe because shots from distance are not given much credit but Whittaker and Mumba seemed very good at long range efforts.
I tink we saw on Saturday that Preston's league position flatters them, they look like a top 10 side rather than a top 6 side.
I thought we were leggy on Saturday and not at the level we were against Hull, which was one of the best halves I have seen us play in years. That said, I do think our squad depth will give us an advantage over lots of clubs, but not necessarily the parachute sides.
We have given ourselves a great platform, let see what the remaining 35 games bring us. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 20:48 - Oct 9 with 3013 views | Guthrum |
| Thinking out loud on 18:38 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
A top six finish will be a very good outcome this season and that is far from certain.
We have come out on the right end of some very close games. We could easily have had less than 20 points to date. Hung on against a Sunderland team who were toothless up front, did not deserve the win at QPR, needed Hladky heroics and a late equaliser at Huddersfield. Cardiff were cruising until they decided to protect their two goal lead. We needed Hladky face to save us a point against Southampton. We could have got something from Leeds game to be fair.
Our PPG will not be sustained at the current levels and you cannot assume 2ppg, that itself is exceptional form.
We have had a head start on teams who are still integrating new players, which has been great.
Leicester, Leeds and Southampton have quality and will be there or thereabouts for automatic promotion. Sunderland and Boro starting to find their form too. I also expect to see Coventry move up the table as their new players settle in.
Great to have a lead over third but to assume we are going to maintain or grow this gap given the quality in this division is far too optimistic for me. |
Thing is, with the start we've had, Leeds would have to manage a PPG of 0.26 better than ours just to catch up. An effective swing of nearly 1.08 PPG from the present rates.
If Leeds maintained their current PPG and we suddenly went on a run like between Charlton H and Bristol Rovers A last season, it would be the end of March before they overtook us. |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 21:01 - Oct 9 with 2960 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 20:48 - Oct 9 by Guthrum |
Thing is, with the start we've had, Leeds would have to manage a PPG of 0.26 better than ours just to catch up. An effective swing of nearly 1.08 PPG from the present rates.
If Leeds maintained their current PPG and we suddenly went on a run like between Charlton H and Bristol Rovers A last season, it would be the end of March before they overtook us. |
Sadly, we are not going to be playing L1 sides this season.
Imv there is too much reliance on (partially) flawed xG data and the extapolation of data based on a small sample size (11 games), where just a few changed results massively changes your projections. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:02 - Oct 9 with 2952 views | Vegtablue |
| Thinking out loud on 20:17 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Some interesting points.
xG is a useful analytic but not foolproof. Plymouth proved that last season, I believe because shots from distance are not given much credit but Whittaker and Mumba seemed very good at long range efforts.
I tink we saw on Saturday that Preston's league position flatters them, they look like a top 10 side rather than a top 6 side.
I thought we were leggy on Saturday and not at the level we were against Hull, which was one of the best halves I have seen us play in years. That said, I do think our squad depth will give us an advantage over lots of clubs, but not necessarily the parachute sides.
We have given ourselves a great platform, let see what the remaining 35 games bring us. |
You're right in that xG isn't foolproof, but it serves to reinforce our position rather than challenge it. xG is very useful for showing trends and it's perhaps unsurprising that Plymouth, who massively exceeded their expected points total, have taken to championship life less securely. Oxford were massively behind their expected total last season and are now tracking much more closely.
Looking beyond xG, we have created 34 more shooting opportunities this season than 2nd Leicester. We're joint top for goal creating actions and have made 15 more key passes than 2nd Leicester. We've combined this with conceding the 6th least goal creating actions and the 7th least shooting chances, so the gap between what we create and what we concede is the largest positive difference in the league. Admittedly, these stats are intrinsically linked to our xG but perhaps they help to give them more meat on the bones.
If they themselves appear a little fluffy, we've had 197 actual shots, 18 clear of 2nd, and 73 on target, 7 clear of 2nd. We've faced 128 shots, 6th least, and 47 on target, 8th most. Hladky has pulled off match-winning saves and has been much busier than the quietest keeper (Leeds' with 29 shots on target faced), but it's only Leeds who have done a better job of outworking the opposition keeper more than their own (with a shots-on-target difference of +27 compared to our +26. If we continue to keep the numbers so high in our favour then we will go from strength to strength, but that's not a given of course. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 21:15]
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| Thinking out loud on 21:04 - Oct 9 with 2939 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Thinking out loud on 21:01 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sadly, we are not going to be playing L1 sides this season.
Imv there is too much reliance on (partially) flawed xG data and the extapolation of data based on a small sample size (11 games), where just a few changed results massively changes your projections. |
I don't use data, I use my eyes, and as I've already posted on here, I can't see us going on a bad run if we keep doing what we've seen works (baring an injury crisis). | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Thinking out loud on 21:04 - Oct 9 with 2945 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Thinking out loud on 19:29 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
For the quality of Southampton’s squad (£150m of fees paid in the side they fielded against us, they appeared to be struggling to implement the way Russell Martin wants them to play. Our goal was from them losing possession playing out. They struggled in other early season games for the same reason. I watched them v Leeds and they have got the system working a lot better and beat Leeds comfortably. They will get better as the season progresses.
Leeds struggled early in the season. Also lots of player churn but recent results have got them up the table. They have a £50m forward line.
I can make similar arguments for Sunderland (who have signed strikers since we played them) and to a lesser extent Boro, again lots of player churn but recent results more in line with expectations.
Leicester have been the side that have kept finding a way to win despite losing a lot of key players. Similar to us, I believe their ppg season to date flatters them.
As much as I am loving this season, I do find projections based on early season games too simplistic and the OP that Leeds are the only side who can catch us but that would be a big ask may not age well. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 19:31]
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Sounds like you want a PPG Projected graph!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR6SXI5cCsgBEjVJzY-3GvH8z5LtTd2o |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 21:11 - Oct 9 with 2926 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Thinking out loud on 21:01 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sadly, we are not going to be playing L1 sides this season.
Imv there is too much reliance on (partially) flawed xG data and the extapolation of data based on a small sample size (11 games), where just a few changed results massively changes your projections. |
Small sample size? 11.5 games is 25% of the season. What is an adequate sample size to start believing we could maintain top 2? 30%? 40%? the whole season? | |
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| Thinking out loud on 21:15 - Oct 9 with 2913 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 21:02 - Oct 9 by Vegtablue |
You're right in that xG isn't foolproof, but it serves to reinforce our position rather than challenge it. xG is very useful for showing trends and it's perhaps unsurprising that Plymouth, who massively exceeded their expected points total, have taken to championship life less securely. Oxford were massively behind their expected total last season and are now tracking much more closely.
Looking beyond xG, we have created 34 more shooting opportunities this season than 2nd Leicester. We're joint top for goal creating actions and have made 15 more key passes than 2nd Leicester. We've combined this with conceding the 6th least goal creating actions and the 7th least shooting chances, so the gap between what we create and what we concede is the largest positive difference in the league. Admittedly, these stats are intrinsically linked to our xG but perhaps they help to give them more meat on the bones.
If they themselves appear a little fluffy, we've had 197 actual shots, 18 clear of 2nd, and 73 on target, 7 clear of 2nd. We've faced 128 shots, 6th least, and 47 on target, 8th most. Hladky has pulled off match-winning saves and has been much busier than the quietest keeper (Leeds' with 29 shots on target faced), but it's only Leeds who have done a better job of outworking the opposition keeper more than their own (with a shots-on-target difference of +27 compared to our +26. If we continue to keep the numbers so high in our favour then we will go from strength to strength, but that's not a given of course. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 21:15]
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I am not against xG related data, and as you say our numbers are really good so far this season.
I also think we could have easily left Sunderland and QPR without the wins and it was Cardiff's tactical errors that got us back into the game at PR. Suddenly 28 points becomes 20-22...
I think we are nailed on top 10, have a really good chance of top 6 and top 2 is not impossible. Really interested to see what Tuanzebe brings to the team too.
I am old enough to remember us being the best team in the country in 81/82 and not winning the title, missing out on play offs and automatic promotion in Burley era and more. Games and promotion will be won on the pitch not a spreadsheet. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:19 - Oct 9 with 2896 views | xrayspecs |
I do not but thank you nonetheless.
Your lines for survival, etc. are based on averages.
Town's line is actual and prone to reversion to the mean.
Knew that MSc maths would come in useful at some point.... | | | |
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