| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 10:49 - Jan 25 with 9655 views | ElderGrizzly |
Still only a 27 point lead with Reform’s 13% likely to deliver just 2 MPs for Tice but lose the Tories 200. Oh well :)
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:21 - Jan 26 with 2595 views | DJR |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:07 - Jan 26 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I wasn’t proposing an extension of austerity, rather I was suggesting Starmer is going to have to raise taxes. Any politician who suggests there is no impact from simply borrowing more is just being fundamentally dishonest (or at best naive). Any substantial increase in unfunded borrowing is going to see a negative reaction from the markets, and likely also hit sterling. We’ve also had two sovereign downgrades which makes borrowing more expensive. I see the argument for him being honest and open about tax rises, but it’s just not going to play well in the media.
As far as I can see, wealth taxes are the only option given that most people are struggling with the cost of living crisis. Corporation tax is already rising to a rate which is higher than the EU average, if this is leveraged too much more capital will just move offshore. |
The problem though is that Labour has ruled out taxes on wealth as well.
And it is rowing back on the Green Investment Plan, with Ed Balls even suggesting they should abandon it completely, when I thought that borrowing to invest was a good thing.
The issue for me is that the UK seems to have been on a doom loop since 2008, and as a result the growth that both parties desire (and on which Labour increased spending depends) appears a mirage with a continuation of existing policies. [Post edited 26 Jan 2024 9:44]
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:27 - Jan 26 with 2563 views | Blueschev |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 17:59 - Jan 25 by Trequartista |
UKIP took a significant chunk of working-class Labour voters in previous elections. I wouldn't assume Reform won't do the same. |
My guess is that Reform will actually tank at the polls. UKIP had a clear aim, which has now been achieved, and is rubbish. People are bored senseless of Brexit and it has achieved none of supposed benefits. If people want to vote for a load of xenophobic pie in the sky nonsense they can just vote Tory. |  | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:29 - Jan 26 with 2550 views | rodney76 |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:56 - Jan 25 by Keno |
Pity the Lib Dems dont have a credible leader |
They'll still get more seats than Reform which will give Davey his say at PMQs.
On the other hand, if Reform and the Tories arrive at an election pact, which is as unlikely as us winning the FA Cup, then things might be different.
Farage is keeping his cards close to his chest, I note. |  | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:43 - Jan 26 with 2525 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:21 - Jan 26 by DJR |
The problem though is that Labour has ruled out taxes on wealth as well.
And it is rowing back on the Green Investment Plan, with Ed Balls even suggesting they should abandon it completely, when I thought that borrowing to invest was a good thing.
The issue for me is that the UK seems to have been on a doom loop since 2008, and as a result the growth that both parties desire (and on which Labour increased spending depends) appears a mirage with a continuation of existing policies. [Post edited 26 Jan 2024 9:44]
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It's almost like we need a complete economic reset, something that has been obvious for my entire lifetime and before!!
Expecting our political class, in the grip of status quo pushing lobbyists and serving vested interests is sadly for the fairies!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_economics |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:48 - Jan 29 with 2391 views | DJR |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:21 - Jan 26 by DJR |
The problem though is that Labour has ruled out taxes on wealth as well.
And it is rowing back on the Green Investment Plan, with Ed Balls even suggesting they should abandon it completely, when I thought that borrowing to invest was a good thing.
The issue for me is that the UK seems to have been on a doom loop since 2008, and as a result the growth that both parties desire (and on which Labour increased spending depends) appears a mirage with a continuation of existing policies. [Post edited 26 Jan 2024 9:44]
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This article from Lord O'Neil mirrors the point I was making about borrowing to invest.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-fiscal-rules-investment-ji
These are the key passages.
The economist said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) should be given powers to work out which public investments would have a “multiplier effect” and actually reduce the budget deficit in the long term by improving productivity and growth.
These spending commitments could then be given the green light without constant reference to the “arbitrary” fiscal rules, he suggested.
“In my view the way to do this, as opposed to ignoring them à la Liz Truss, is to give the OBR much stronger powers in publicly outlining, supported by the Infrastructure Commission, what sorts of investments would have clear, measurable, strong positive multipliers that would create much stronger public assets; and, in the process, probably reducing the fiscal deficit in the future, not boosting it,” he wrote.
“And at the same time, drop such petty and arbitrary fiscal rules that magically claim the deficit in five years’ time will be lower.
“This rarely turns out to be the case, because the introduction of the rule has played a much bigger role in constraining the ability of the government to invest itself, or stimulate investment from the private sector, so that growth ends up being too weak to boost revenues.” | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 07:57 - Jan 30 with 2315 views | DJR |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:48 - Jan 29 by DJR |
This article from Lord O'Neil mirrors the point I was making about borrowing to invest.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-fiscal-rules-investment-ji
These are the key passages.
The economist said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) should be given powers to work out which public investments would have a “multiplier effect” and actually reduce the budget deficit in the long term by improving productivity and growth.
These spending commitments could then be given the green light without constant reference to the “arbitrary” fiscal rules, he suggested.
“In my view the way to do this, as opposed to ignoring them à la Liz Truss, is to give the OBR much stronger powers in publicly outlining, supported by the Infrastructure Commission, what sorts of investments would have clear, measurable, strong positive multipliers that would create much stronger public assets; and, in the process, probably reducing the fiscal deficit in the future, not boosting it,” he wrote.
“And at the same time, drop such petty and arbitrary fiscal rules that magically claim the deficit in five years’ time will be lower.
“This rarely turns out to be the case, because the introduction of the rule has played a much bigger role in constraining the ability of the government to invest itself, or stimulate investment from the private sector, so that growth ends up being too weak to boost revenues.” |
Yet more rowing back from Labour on the Green New Deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/29/rachel-reeves-says-fiscal-pictu
And this despite economists at the LSE, including Lord Stern, arguing that such investment will boost growth.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/22/uk-should-invest-in-green-ec
To be frank, it is very difficult to see what difference a Labour government will make, apart from being good eggs in comparison to the Tories.
But then again both Hunt and Reeves studied PPE at Oxford, so perhaps it's not surprising their approaches coincide. [Post edited 30 Jan 2024 8:03]
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:10 - Jan 30 with 2280 views | chicoazul |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:19 - Jan 26 by itfcjoe |
On yesterday's Political Currency podcast both George Osborne and Ed Balls made this pint - tax take is low, aging population so NHS and Social Care costs rising, global security is on edge so defence costs are heightened and we are having to pay something like £100bn a year to service the national debt - tax rises are inevitable as we need more public spending.
Just need to have the public spending going on growth industries as well (i.e, a green investment plan) |
So strange to hear politicians say the solution to our problems is even more taxation when we already pay so much. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:13 - Jan 30 with 2262 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
Isn’t he just giving an opinion about investing - I didn’t see any reference to further borrowing. Is there an analysis of the growth it would generate versus impact on debt repayments and impact on sterling and sovereign rating? The whole Eurozone is mired in debt and sluggish growth projections, spending by itself is no guarantee of growth it has to be carefully planned, produce high quality jobs, and ultimately a return for the Treasury. It’s a shame the green plan is looking unlikely, it’s a very short-terming approach - we should be upskilling and building the infrastructure, but no doubt instead we’ll subsidise the oil majors, or get China to build it.
To me there’s no argument that investment is needed, but I think Starmer needs to be brave and look at tax rises, and not tinkering around the edges with tax bands, but new and progressive wealth taxes. | | | |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:29 - Jan 30 with 2243 views | DJR |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:13 - Jan 30 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Isn’t he just giving an opinion about investing - I didn’t see any reference to further borrowing. Is there an analysis of the growth it would generate versus impact on debt repayments and impact on sterling and sovereign rating? The whole Eurozone is mired in debt and sluggish growth projections, spending by itself is no guarantee of growth it has to be carefully planned, produce high quality jobs, and ultimately a return for the Treasury. It’s a shame the green plan is looking unlikely, it’s a very short-terming approach - we should be upskilling and building the infrastructure, but no doubt instead we’ll subsidise the oil majors, or get China to build it.
To me there’s no argument that investment is needed, but I think Starmer needs to be brave and look at tax rises, and not tinkering around the edges with tax bands, but new and progressive wealth taxes. |
I completely agree with you on wealth taxes, but Reeves has ruled this out, with this extending to a mansion tax and a change in the favourable tax rates on capital gains and dividends.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/22/uk-should-invest-in-green-ec
And in response to a demand the other day from Lord Kinnock for a wealth tax, sources close to shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves insisted that the party’s stance had not changed since she had ruled out a wealth tax last year.
EDIT: Given sluggish growth in Europe, it is seems to me unrealistic that Labour will somehow produce growth without any change of approach from the Tories. But the one advantage that many western European countries have over us is that they have far better public services, whatever their current economic woes. [Post edited 30 Jan 2024 9:29]
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:00 - Jan 30 with 2152 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:10 - Jan 30 by chicoazul |
So strange to hear politicians say the solution to our problems is even more taxation when we already pay so much. |
Have you taken the time to look at how much we pay compared to comparable nations? | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:34 - Jan 30 with 2105 views | chicoazul |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:00 - Jan 30 by redrickstuhaart |
Have you taken the time to look at how much we pay compared to comparable nations? |
I never understand why people think this is a good or interesting response to my point. | |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 14:31 - Jan 30 with 2045 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:34 - Jan 30 by chicoazul |
I never understand why people think this is a good or interesting response to my point. |
Well, for a start, it puts your phrase "so much" into a correct context so that it can be evaluated for accuracy.
The central problem is that many corporations, and the ultra-wealthy, find ways to pay as little tax as possible. So, if their favourite loopholes can be closed then increasing tax revenue doesn't necessarily imply increasing the deductions from most people's pay packets. | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 15:20 - Jan 30 with 2021 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 14:31 - Jan 30 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Well, for a start, it puts your phrase "so much" into a correct context so that it can be evaluated for accuracy.
The central problem is that many corporations, and the ultra-wealthy, find ways to pay as little tax as possible. So, if their favourite loopholes can be closed then increasing tax revenue doesn't necessarily imply increasing the deductions from most people's pay packets. |
A sensible tax rate would likely stop the very large and global organisations from paying big money to avoid tax and or operate from Ireland / Luxembourg. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 15:27 - Jan 30 with 2005 views | DanTheMan |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:10 - Jan 30 by chicoazul |
So strange to hear politicians say the solution to our problems is even more taxation when we already pay so much. |
Workers pay lots of tax, and those with lots of wealth pay little.
And it's getting worse. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 15:27 - Jan 30 with 2005 views | chicoazul |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 14:31 - Jan 30 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Well, for a start, it puts your phrase "so much" into a correct context so that it can be evaluated for accuracy.
The central problem is that many corporations, and the ultra-wealthy, find ways to pay as little tax as possible. So, if their favourite loopholes can be closed then increasing tax revenue doesn't necessarily imply increasing the deductions from most people's pay packets. |
It’s unnecessary to further contextualise it considering we are now paying the highest rate of tax since the war, that is the only context that matters. And I also disagree with your point about the central problem, I believe the central problem is incompetent useless politicians for the last 30 years at least. Some people just believe the answer is more money for these idiots to spend; I think they’re wrong. | |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 15:34 - Jan 30 with 1990 views | giant_stow |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 15:27 - Jan 30 by chicoazul |
It’s unnecessary to further contextualise it considering we are now paying the highest rate of tax since the war, that is the only context that matters. And I also disagree with your point about the central problem, I believe the central problem is incompetent useless politicians for the last 30 years at least. Some people just believe the answer is more money for these idiots to spend; I think they’re wrong. |
Isn't at least part of the problem that there's more needs spending on now, with an ageing population? Plus a growing bill for debt interest and now arguably a need for more defense spending? Assuming I'm right on that, higher tac rates seem unavoidable. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 15:38 - Jan 30 with 1979 views | chicoazul |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 15:34 - Jan 30 by giant_stow |
Isn't at least part of the problem that there's more needs spending on now, with an ageing population? Plus a growing bill for debt interest and now arguably a need for more defense spending? Assuming I'm right on that, higher tac rates seem unavoidable. |
The debt interest and need for more money on defence are a result of political decisions. | |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:38 - Jan 30 with 1943 views | Edmundo |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:56 - Jan 25 by Keno |
Pity the Lib Dems dont have a credible leader |
I know this is terribly naive, but all parties start at 0 votes. The constant narrative of every single election being red v blue in England is undemocratic.
If we could just have a fair build up to elections, without the dirty money funding campaigns, we may get a different result for once. And we might get real social changes. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:45 - Jan 30 with 1921 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:38 - Jan 30 by Edmundo |
I know this is terribly naive, but all parties start at 0 votes. The constant narrative of every single election being red v blue in England is undemocratic.
If we could just have a fair build up to elections, without the dirty money funding campaigns, we may get a different result for once. And we might get real social changes. |
The electoral system makes it the 2 party state we are. Whilst other parties have been able to get some footholds, they are miles away from power aside from being the balance in a power-sharing agreement. If we had some form of transferable vote or proportional representation, then there would be more chance of a more democratic result. It would potentially mean more accountability to the people too. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:46 - Jan 30 with 1920 views | Blueschev |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:38 - Jan 30 by Edmundo |
I know this is terribly naive, but all parties start at 0 votes. The constant narrative of every single election being red v blue in England is undemocratic.
If we could just have a fair build up to elections, without the dirty money funding campaigns, we may get a different result for once. And we might get real social changes. |
The problem is that the only beneficiaries of our current political system also happen to be the only people with the power to change it. | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 17:02 - Jan 30 with 1890 views | bluelagos |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:38 - Jan 30 by Edmundo |
I know this is terribly naive, but all parties start at 0 votes. The constant narrative of every single election being red v blue in England is undemocratic.
If we could just have a fair build up to elections, without the dirty money funding campaigns, we may get a different result for once. And we might get real social changes. |
You may wish to check out the 83 results. The SDP/Lib Dems got a fair ole chunk of the vote and sod all seats.
Unless they got over 30% there really isn't a breakthrough.
Plus Davey is a liability imho. Any of them that signed their pledge on tuition fees and then voted for it - bollox to em. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 17:49 - Jan 30 with 1839 views | chicoazul |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:38 - Jan 30 by Edmundo |
I know this is terribly naive, but all parties start at 0 votes. The constant narrative of every single election being red v blue in England is undemocratic.
If we could just have a fair build up to elections, without the dirty money funding campaigns, we may get a different result for once. And we might get real social changes. |
We have had real social change. The Uk is nothing like the country of 25 years ago. | |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 07:54 - Jan 31 with 1722 views | DJR |
Labour offering deregulation of financial services, and ruling out any windfall tax on the excess profits of the banks. In contrast, the Blair government in 1997 imposed a windfall tax on the excess profits of the privatised utilities which raised £5 billion.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/30/labour-vows-to-cut-financial-re
Oh, and no reintroduction of the cap on bankers' bonuses, coupled with no increases in income tax for higher earners, and no wealth taxes.
EDIT: this from the BBC
Mick McAteer, co-director of the Financial Inclusion Centre and a former board member of the Financial Conduct Authority, suggested the party was "going too far".
"It seems to have forgotten the mistakes of the previous Labour administration which allowed finance to become too dominant, leaving the UK one of the most exposed global economies when the devastating 2008 crisis came.
"Ordinary people and the UK's public services are still paying the price for that failure," he said.
"The City finance lobbies are very vocal at promoting the benefits of the sector. The City doesn't need another champion in Labour," Mr McAteer added. [Post edited 31 Jan 2024 7:59]
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:14 - Jan 31 with 1639 views | Blueschev |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 17:49 - Jan 30 by chicoazul |
We have had real social change. The Uk is nothing like the country of 25 years ago. |
That's true. You can't smoke in pubs anymore. I haven't seen white dog poo for years either. The country's gone. | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:26 - Jan 31 with 1572 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:28 - Jan 25 by ElderGrizzly |
If they win with the majorities being predicted, I expect we'll see some very bold policies. |
Based on my experience locally, I would be surprised if that were the case. Unfortunately my CLP is probably one of the most right-wing in the country (the guests at CLP events are always people like Streeting, Akehurst, Duale etc, who unfortunately seem to be the ones in the driving seat now) and there is no indication from them that they have any desire for the kind of big changes the country needs. One of the reasons Labour lost in the local elections here in 2022 was their timidity in going along with spending cuts, failing to protect frontline services like other boroughs managed to, and their incredibly weak approach to LTNs which pleased no-one (Labour may well lose the seat in the general election too, although that is more linked to the party's stance on the Israel/Gaza situation).
If there are any "bold" policies, I suspect they will not be bold in a good way. |  | | |
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