By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions. We in turn value your personal details in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Definitely not tory but not convinced by Labour either. Though at least our local Labour candidate is actually a bona fide local person. Will probs go Labour.
"Blueas is a great guy, one of the best." - Donald Trump
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 10:29 - Jul 3 by DJR
One thing that puzzles me is why Waveney Valley of all places is a possible Green victory.
Looking at the area, it appears predominantly rural ,and Electoral Calculus characterises the proposed seat as "Strong Right", with right-wing economic and social views, high home ownership levels and strong support for Brexit.
Perhaps someone from the area could explain.
I'm from the area and I have no idea why it's polling green. I get the 'tories out' thing, but like you say it's classic tory, made up from parts of five old constituencies that were all strongly tory. Labour are reportedly not even bothering and have sent canvassers to Lowestoft instead. No shortage of light blue posters around here too though !
1
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 11:10 - Jul 3 with 1797 views
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 11:05 - Jul 3 by HairBearBunch
I'm from the area and I have no idea why it's polling green. I get the 'tories out' thing, but like you say it's classic tory, made up from parts of five old constituencies that were all strongly tory. Labour are reportedly not even bothering and have sent canvassers to Lowestoft instead. No shortage of light blue posters around here too though !
Is Sizewell in that constituency? Could be a lot of people unhappy about the new station going ahead, and only the Greens providing an outlet for that opposition? (Foolishly in my opinion, I think Nuclear absolutely needs to be part of the decarbonisation of energy).
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 10:41 - Jul 3 by rkc123
I am leaning the same way. Do you think if labour do win it though, and Kevin Craig is kicked out, that there is a chance they will put Dan Poulter in his place? It would seem to make sense given his defection from the Tory seat for the same constituency, but I don't know how I would feel about it, I mean I like how he spoke about his decision to cross the floor, but he stood by for a lot of s*it before doing so.
The only way this can happen is if the incumbent MP resigns the seat and there is a by-election. (I believe there are still mechanisms for constituents to force a by-election, but this can't just happen on the whim of Labour).
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 11:10 - Jul 3 by baxterbasics
Is Sizewell in that constituency? Could be a lot of people unhappy about the new station going ahead, and only the Greens providing an outlet for that opposition? (Foolishly in my opinion, I think Nuclear absolutely needs to be part of the decarbonisation of energy).
No, unlike the waveney itself we don't get to the coast. There is a lot of hoo-har about new pylons though
Please do NOT rely on bookies to indicate your best option - as has been shown numerous times on here, their odds can be swung by a tiny number of people sticking on a few quid each.
I believe there are also other similar sites out there.
EDIT: Here's a c & p of the page I got when entering my postcode into the tactical.vote site I linked -
"GENERAL ELECTION 2024
Skipton and Ripon TO VOTE TACTICALLY HERE, VOTE Labour Malcolm Birks 2019 ELECTION RESULT Tories 59.5%
Labour 19.1%
Lib Dem 14.8%
Green 4.7%
The Yorkshire Party 1.9%
Labour are in second place in this seat, so are likely to be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
POLL CHECK This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical YouGov Tory 35% Labour 31% Labour Survation Tory 37% Labour 31% Labour Ipsos Tory 36% Labour 36% Labour Savanta Labour 34% Tory 28% Labour Focaldata Labour 31% Tory 31% Labour WeThink Labour 43% Tory 27% Labour Electoral Calculus Reform 36% Labour 28% Labour More in Common Tory 37% Labour 30% Labour JL Partners Labour 31% Tory 29% Labour Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
FUND THE MOVEMENT Help us spread the word about tactical voting! For every £10 donated, we can reach another 1,000 voters in target seats.
Make a donation GET UPDATES ON TACTICAL VOTING Email address Postcode (optional) This will subscribe you to updates from tactical.vote. You can unsubscribe at any time."
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 09:46 - Jul 3 by rkc123
Same for me, the polling was very close between the Tories and Labour, but now with the labour candidate suspended and the lib dems heavily pushing that they are the anti-tory vote I imagine the Conservatives will hold it due to the votes being split between various alternatives. I'm not a staunch Labour supporter, but I would have been voting for them before all this, not sure what to do now. Sods law that we live in an area with the one Labour candidate who appears to be as corrupt as your average Tory.
Point of order...
Tories won't 'hold' CS&NI. Since Poulter's defection it has been a Lab seat. Tories will probably gain it back.
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 11:22 - Jul 3 by Ryorry
Please do NOT rely on bookies to indicate your best option - as has been shown numerous times on here, their odds can be swung by a tiny number of people sticking on a few quid each.
I believe there are also other similar sites out there.
EDIT: Here's a c & p of the page I got when entering my postcode into the tactical.vote site I linked -
"GENERAL ELECTION 2024
Skipton and Ripon TO VOTE TACTICALLY HERE, VOTE Labour Malcolm Birks 2019 ELECTION RESULT Tories 59.5%
Labour 19.1%
Lib Dem 14.8%
Green 4.7%
The Yorkshire Party 1.9%
Labour are in second place in this seat, so are likely to be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
POLL CHECK This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical YouGov Tory 35% Labour 31% Labour Survation Tory 37% Labour 31% Labour Ipsos Tory 36% Labour 36% Labour Savanta Labour 34% Tory 28% Labour Focaldata Labour 31% Tory 31% Labour WeThink Labour 43% Tory 27% Labour Electoral Calculus Reform 36% Labour 28% Labour More in Common Tory 37% Labour 30% Labour JL Partners Labour 31% Tory 29% Labour Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
FUND THE MOVEMENT Help us spread the word about tactical voting! For every £10 donated, we can reach another 1,000 voters in target seats.
Make a donation GET UPDATES ON TACTICAL VOTING Email address Postcode (optional) This will subscribe you to updates from tactical.vote. You can unsubscribe at any time."
[Post edited 3 Jul 2024 11:30]
The problem with tactical voting sites is that a number tell different messages in the same seat.
South Suffolk for example has had Tory / Labour and Reform tipped to win in various polls - and different sites will take their information from different polls (hence some inconsistencies)
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 11:45 - Jul 3 by bluelagos
The problem with tactical voting sites is that a number tell different messages in the same seat.
South Suffolk for example has had Tory / Labour and Reform tipped to win in various polls - and different sites will take their information from different polls (hence some inconsistencies)
Fair enough, though the site I linked took 9 different pollsters into account.
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 09:37 - Jul 3 by BlueNomad
I am in the same constituency. I've decided to still put my cross in his box because a) he might well be reinstated, b) he will still have Labour values and c) I suspect many people don't even realise he has been suspended (not kicked out) the party.
Local Lib Dems were outrageous rushing out a leaflet saying that he was basically no longer a candidate.
Think we’ve had that leaflet through our letterbox about 5 times now!
Highlighting crass stupidity since sometime around 2010
I'm glad the OP started this thread. I was going to post a similar one. I live in the new constituency of St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire. My absolute committment is to oust the incumbent tory, Anthony Browne. My confliction is that I'm a life long Labour voter, but some polls are showing LD as the front runners. I will happily hold my nose and vote LD if they really need the support, but there are so many polls that it's not clear. I wouldn't want to split the vote, but would rather vote Labour if I could. What accurate polls are people here following?
[Post edited 3 Jul 2024 12:46]
Distortion becomes somehow pure in its wildness.
0
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 12:48 - Jul 3 with 1569 views
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 12:42 - Jul 3 by Whos_blue
I'm glad the OP started this thread. I was going to post a similar one. I live in the new constituency of St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire. My absolute committment is to oust the incumbent tory, Anthony Browne. My confliction is that I'm a life long Labour voter, but some polls are showing LD as the front runners. I will happily hold my nose and vote LD if they really need the support, but there are so many polls that it's not clear. I wouldn't want to split the vote, but would rather vote Labour if I could. What accurate polls are people here following?
[Post edited 3 Jul 2024 12:46]
Tactical voters: Odds below: (Rommer's eat yer heart out) by bluelagos3 Jul 2024 9:58 If you are looking to vote tactically but unsure who to vote for (to stop a candidate or party) - below are the bookie odds for each Suffolk constituency. You can see the candidates most likely to challenge.
Polls are a bit erratic at a local level, but the bookies will have looked at all of them before setting their odds.
Any seat can be checked here:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies
And don't forget your photo ID - you can not vote without it.
Ipswich - Labour are 1/20 on so that's looking nailed on tbh.
South Suffolk - Tory James Cartlidge's seat.
Tory 4-6
Labour 7-4
Reform 11-1
Green 150-1
Lib 500-1
Suffolk Coastal - Tory Therese Coffey's seat.
Labour 1-2
Tory 5-2
Reform 33-1
Liberals 50-1
Green 100-1
Suffolk Central and North Ipswich - Dan Porter (not standing) old seat.
*The Labour candidate has been disowned by the party for betting against himself here.
Tory 4-5
*Labour 5-4
Reform 25-1
Libs 100-1
Green 100-1
Suffolk West
Labour 8-13
Tory 13/8
Reform 33-1
Libs 150-1
Green 200-1
Waveney (New seat)
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/waveney-valley
Greens & Tories neck and neck though Greens look favourites (see odds above)
Labour 12-1
Reform 20-1
Libs 250-1
If you don't bother to vote - you can't really moan if they winners do stuff you don't like.
And people literally died to get the vote, so it really is important to vote if you can. Ruined ballots get counted too - if "none of the above" is your thing.
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 12:48 - Jul 3 by bluelagos
Tactical voters: Odds below: (Rommer's eat yer heart out) by bluelagos3 Jul 2024 9:58 If you are looking to vote tactically but unsure who to vote for (to stop a candidate or party) - below are the bookie odds for each Suffolk constituency. You can see the candidates most likely to challenge.
Polls are a bit erratic at a local level, but the bookies will have looked at all of them before setting their odds.
Any seat can be checked here:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies
And don't forget your photo ID - you can not vote without it.
Ipswich - Labour are 1/20 on so that's looking nailed on tbh.
South Suffolk - Tory James Cartlidge's seat.
Tory 4-6
Labour 7-4
Reform 11-1
Green 150-1
Lib 500-1
Suffolk Coastal - Tory Therese Coffey's seat.
Labour 1-2
Tory 5-2
Reform 33-1
Liberals 50-1
Green 100-1
Suffolk Central and North Ipswich - Dan Porter (not standing) old seat.
*The Labour candidate has been disowned by the party for betting against himself here.
Tory 4-5
*Labour 5-4
Reform 25-1
Libs 100-1
Green 100-1
Suffolk West
Labour 8-13
Tory 13/8
Reform 33-1
Libs 150-1
Green 200-1
Waveney (New seat)
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/waveney-valley
Greens & Tories neck and neck though Greens look favourites (see odds above)
Labour 12-1
Reform 20-1
Libs 250-1
If you don't bother to vote - you can't really moan if they winners do stuff you don't like.
And people literally died to get the vote, so it really is important to vote if you can. Ruined ballots get counted too - if "none of the above" is your thing.
And this is where it's complicated.
Odds checker says:
LD 5/12 Lab 5/1
Tactical voting lists 9 polls.
4x LD 3 x Lab 2 x none
If LD have it in the bag I'll go with my heart with Labour. Still nervous it might split the LD vote!
Distortion becomes somehow pure in its wildness.
0
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 13:05 - Jul 3 with 1501 views
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 12:21 - Jul 3 by HairBearBunch
The site you linked to says "WITHDRAWN" for my area. So they don't know any better than I do.
It's a seat which is quite unpredictable so they're just avoiding a commitment. On the basis of the strength of local campaigning and the relative engagement of Labour and Greens, I'd say you want to vote Green there to get the T*ries out. Besides, with a massive Labour majority guaranteed, it's very beneficial to have a little bit of extra Green representation at Westminster given the environmental challenges we are facing.
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 10:41 - Jul 3 by rkc123
I am leaning the same way. Do you think if labour do win it though, and Kevin Craig is kicked out, that there is a chance they will put Dan Poulter in his place? It would seem to make sense given his defection from the Tory seat for the same constituency, but I don't know how I would feel about it, I mean I like how he spoke about his decision to cross the floor, but he stood by for a lot of s*it before doing so.
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 12:55 - Jul 3 by Whos_blue
And this is where it's complicated.
Odds checker says:
LD 5/12 Lab 5/1
Tactical voting lists 9 polls.
4x LD 3 x Lab 2 x none
If LD have it in the bag I'll go with my heart with Labour. Still nervous it might split the LD vote!
I am a member of Compass and you could use the Compass website to try to swap your vote, so that a Lib Dem elsewhere votes Labour in a seat where Labour has a chance.
I am not saying you'll find anyone but you could give it a go.
Debating whether to vote LD as they are openly talking about rejoining the SM and/or EU. I don't expect them to win the seat so it's probably a 'wasted vote' but should you not vote for what's important to you?
Or maybe someone can look in a crystal ball and tell me that Labour will suddenly decide they want to do the same.
Voting day tomorrow and still undecided who to vote for on 13:39 - Jul 3 by DJR
I am a member of Compass and you could use the Compass website to try to swap your vote, so that a Lib Dem elsewhere votes Labour in a seat where Labour has a chance.
I am not saying you'll find anyone but you could give it a go.
I feel it's a bit of a disaster thay people find themselves voting for anyone but the Tories. Is that really the state of our political party's these day's that a Government make a complete horlicks of governing for 14 years and yet there's nobody really worth voting for in their place and an"Anything will do" scenario other than them ? Starmer won't come out with any real policies. He doesn't want Rwanda, but can't say how he will stop the boat people coming here. He say's he will stop the illegal traffickers, but then he's relying on the French and that hasn't worked despite giving them 50+ millions. Whoever get's in needs to come up with a more sensible idea regarding greenhouse gases. Making consumers pay through the nose for anything they have that is not regarded green and then trying to get people to buy things that don't work or are way to expensive for the majority is also nonsensical. A guy I was listening to on the radio recently visits China. He said they are building or have built a railway transporting coal from one side of the Country to the other and they are building 10, yes 10, new coal powered power stations a year over there. I'm not saying we shouldn't be trying to do something, but then our policies are so slipshod. An example of this is our local surgery, which frankly isn't big enough due to continued house building and being understaffed. They are continually sending people miles away for blood tests when they can be done locally. That means many people making car journeys that are unnecessary. Hospitals are continuing to make treatments only available at certain one's. Again making people travel miles and yet these are government establishments going totally against government policy of cutting emissions.
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
