| Is it really a surprise where we are? 20:59 - Feb 22 with 6929 views | ghostofescobar |
The reality is we got promoted too early. The plan was probably 2 or 3 years in the championship. We will go down, but I am hopeful for next season. |  |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 16:58 - Feb 23 with 1114 views | Herbivore |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 16:19 - Feb 23 by PhilTWTD |
It's essentially what Kieran McKenna has said all season. That the difference is that you build a squad more capable of competing at a higher level if you spend a number of years towards the top of the Championship, or in the case of Southampton and Leicester being up and down. We've come up from League One and then to the Premier League in successive seasons with a large part of the squad still that which was assembled in League One.
It's a big leap from the Championship to the Premier League, a much bigger one from League One to the Premier League. |
I can understand why McKenna is saying that and there's some truth in it, but the squad we had in League 1 was not a League 1 squad. Walton, Clarke, Davis, Morsy, Luongo, Chappers, Hirst, Broadhead to name most of the squad were all signed from the Championship or Prem (usually having had Championship loan spells). The squad we finished second in League 1 with was, imo, a capable of a top half Championship finish even without the additions we made for the Championship season.
The issue with trying to build in the Championship without parachute payments is that your best players get picked off by Prem sides or teams with parachute payments. If we'd not gone up last season, we wouldn't have seen Hutchinson in a Town shirt again and Davis would have gone. We'd have got decent money for Davis, but not the kind of money you can build a much stronger squad with.
The issue is simply the gap. We were a very good Championship side last season and many of those who came up with us haven't looked totally out of their depth at this level. But they, along with a lot of our signings, are not quite good enough, they're a few percent short of the calibre of players at middling Prem sides and a fair distance off the players at the likes of City, Liverpool, and Arsenal. Leicester and Saints should, in almost all respects, have been better prepared than us, they had/have Prem experienced players and had ridiculously strong squads in the Championship and they aren't faring any better than us. I'm not sure what McKenna thought we could build in the Championship is either realistic or would have given us a markedly better chance of competing. |  |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 17:01 - Feb 23 with 1091 views | pointofblue |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 16:57 - Feb 23 by NedPlimpton |
And where are Luton now? |
I guess this ties into another thread which was posted this morning.
Last season, whilst all three teams promoted from the Championship were relgated from the Premier League, all three promoted from League One survived in the Championship. All three teams relegated from the Premier League finished in the top four in 23/24. This season, two of the relegated three are in the top three (with the other place being taken up by a side relegated the season before) but two of the promoted sides are eight and nine points clear of the bottom three.
Going further down the pyramid, the relegated three from the Championship finished 8th, 12th (would have been 10th without the points deduction) and 17th in League One in 23/24, whilst the promoted four finished 9th, 11th, 14th and 24th. This season the relegated three sit 1st, 5th and 14th whilst the promoted four are currently 3rd, 4th, 15th (six points from the drop) and 22nd.
For League Two, the promoted duo in 23/24 finished 2nd and 14th whilst the relegated four ended up 4th, 15th, 17th and 24th. This season, the promoted teams are 10th and 13th whilst the relegatded clubs are 6th, 11th, 14th and 24th. The Football League is far better at parity than the Premier League and it looks like the gap will just grow further. [Post edited 23 Feb 17:29]
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 17:09 - Feb 23 with 1071 views | PhilTWTD |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 16:58 - Feb 23 by Herbivore |
I can understand why McKenna is saying that and there's some truth in it, but the squad we had in League 1 was not a League 1 squad. Walton, Clarke, Davis, Morsy, Luongo, Chappers, Hirst, Broadhead to name most of the squad were all signed from the Championship or Prem (usually having had Championship loan spells). The squad we finished second in League 1 with was, imo, a capable of a top half Championship finish even without the additions we made for the Championship season.
The issue with trying to build in the Championship without parachute payments is that your best players get picked off by Prem sides or teams with parachute payments. If we'd not gone up last season, we wouldn't have seen Hutchinson in a Town shirt again and Davis would have gone. We'd have got decent money for Davis, but not the kind of money you can build a much stronger squad with.
The issue is simply the gap. We were a very good Championship side last season and many of those who came up with us haven't looked totally out of their depth at this level. But they, along with a lot of our signings, are not quite good enough, they're a few percent short of the calibre of players at middling Prem sides and a fair distance off the players at the likes of City, Liverpool, and Arsenal. Leicester and Saints should, in almost all respects, have been better prepared than us, they had/have Prem experienced players and had ridiculously strong squads in the Championship and they aren't faring any better than us. I'm not sure what McKenna thought we could build in the Championship is either realistic or would have given us a markedly better chance of competing. |
I see what you're saying, but if those players had been top Championship players they would have had top Championship clubs after them when we signed them and they wouldn't have signed with us in League One, whatever our ambitions might have been. Certainly none of those players would have got the chance in the Premier League but for being promoted twice with us, whereas a couple of further years in the Championship would have seen players with more Premier League pedigree brought in. |  | | |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 17:14 - Feb 23 with 1058 views | Herbivore |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 17:09 - Feb 23 by PhilTWTD |
I see what you're saying, but if those players had been top Championship players they would have had top Championship clubs after them when we signed them and they wouldn't have signed with us in League One, whatever our ambitions might have been. Certainly none of those players would have got the chance in the Premier League but for being promoted twice with us, whereas a couple of further years in the Championship would have seen players with more Premier League pedigree brought in. |
They were all punts to some extent, players who hadn't quite pushed on as hoped. I think though for a time we had more financial clout in League 1 than most Championship sides, other than those with parachute payments who were shopping in a different market entirely. Not many Championship sides were spending seven figure sums on fees back in 2022 and that meant we could get players that ordinarily would have had offers from the league above, albeit not the top few sides. I'm also not sure we would have been able to get more Prem pedigree players with a longer stay in the Championship. Our spending last season was limited by PSR and without parachute payments it's hard to spend big at that level. Even if we'd flogged Davis for £15m to £20m, we've seen this season that doesn't get you Prem ready players. For me I think it's the size of the gap that's the issue and I don't think another year or two in the Championship would have helped matters much, personally. | |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 17:23 - Feb 23 with 1024 views | Swansea_Blue |
Yes and no. It’s true we got promoted earlier than expected (there’s never a ‘too early’ imo - you can’t pick and choose when these things happen; you just have to take your chance when it does). A lot of work was then obviously needed on the team, but I was hoping some of the incomings would have shown a bit more. We’re a bit light either in numbers or quality in key areas too (centre forward the obvious position where we could have done with a wily old pro to share the load with the still learning Delap).
I understand what we did with focusing on younger players with potentially high ceilings. I’m not sure it’s worked in hindsight, but I like the idea of it if there’s a way of making it work. |  |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 17:38 - Feb 23 with 985 views | Axeldalai_lama |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 16:14 - Feb 23 by Blue_In_Boston |
I am not endorsing the way Luton play, just pointing out that they remained competitive and in the fight until the end. |
Fair enough, but did they get it more 'right' than us? I'm not sure there is anything you can point to if you discard their style, apart from a punt or two paying off, our punt was Philips and it hasn't hit the heights of Barkley, that's it. |  | | |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 09:45 - Feb 24 with 856 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 21:15 - Feb 22 by Swailsey |
This is true. I just think it’s a bit of a wasted opportunity. The near £75 million we spent on Clarke, Ogbene, Greaves and Jayden could have brought in a battle hardened midfielder.
I’m torn between now and future planning - but it’s the first time we’ve been here in 20 years and I wanted to stay. |
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 10:22 - Feb 24 with 824 views | hype313 |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 17:14 - Feb 23 by Herbivore |
They were all punts to some extent, players who hadn't quite pushed on as hoped. I think though for a time we had more financial clout in League 1 than most Championship sides, other than those with parachute payments who were shopping in a different market entirely. Not many Championship sides were spending seven figure sums on fees back in 2022 and that meant we could get players that ordinarily would have had offers from the league above, albeit not the top few sides. I'm also not sure we would have been able to get more Prem pedigree players with a longer stay in the Championship. Our spending last season was limited by PSR and without parachute payments it's hard to spend big at that level. Even if we'd flogged Davis for £15m to £20m, we've seen this season that doesn't get you Prem ready players. For me I think it's the size of the gap that's the issue and I don't think another year or two in the Championship would have helped matters much, personally. |
Agreed, I think people are still in the mindset of our days under Burley, where we could sell a player, reinforce the squad to the point when you do go up you are at worst competitive, best make a top 10 push. The gap now is too big to bridge as Leicester and Southampton have found.
I've no doubt if Leeds, Sheff Utd and Burnley go up they'll be back down by Xmas.
Especially given the clubs that have struggled this season like Wolves, West Ham, Everton will all spend big in the summer and be even stronger.
If a team was getting promoted this season, who are you looking at that you can realistically think you could take their spot? |  |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 11:31 - Feb 24 with 781 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 11:46 - Feb 23 by J2BLUE |
There's no such thing as getting promoted too early. It's something fans say but it's just stupid.
The gulf is too big to build a team in the Championship, especially without parachute payments. Coming up and going straight back down, if we do, is far better for us in terms of the future than 2-3 seasons in the Championship making minor upgrades at best while probably losing Davis and 2-3 others.
If we can keep most of this squad and learn from this season we can come back up hopefully and recruit some experience to go with the exciting younger players. |
I think what people mean about getting promoted too early is not that you don't take it (money-wise you say thanks very much) but more in terms of being able to compete is very hard when you turn up to the Prem with more than half the squad being starters in League 1.
So just purely from a playing and being able to compete point of view, it's not stupid to suggest we got promoted to early. I'm sure the plan would've been to consolidate in the Champ, improve the squad as we did under Burley each year, and gradually improve in terms of team cohesion as much as better players. I doubt anyone in the club (or supporters) were expecting to go straight through the Champ. That's why we've had to rush like mad to get things up to standard both on and off the pitch, and why it's so difficult. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 11:54 - Feb 24 with 756 views | hype313 |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 11:31 - Feb 24 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I think what people mean about getting promoted too early is not that you don't take it (money-wise you say thanks very much) but more in terms of being able to compete is very hard when you turn up to the Prem with more than half the squad being starters in League 1.
So just purely from a playing and being able to compete point of view, it's not stupid to suggest we got promoted to early. I'm sure the plan would've been to consolidate in the Champ, improve the squad as we did under Burley each year, and gradually improve in terms of team cohesion as much as better players. I doubt anyone in the club (or supporters) were expecting to go straight through the Champ. That's why we've had to rush like mad to get things up to standard both on and off the pitch, and why it's so difficult. |
But Leicester had arguably a stronger squad with PL players, recently in the PL for a significant while, yet they're doing worse than us. | |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 12:09 - Feb 24 with 734 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 09:45 - Feb 24 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. |
I'd also be interested to find out who we ended up going to for stats....
We know we used the goalkeeper.com site for Muric
But who did we used for all others, because we lost our main data partner didn't we when we got promoted because of the conflict with brighton... |  |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 13:10 - Feb 24 with 704 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 11:54 - Feb 24 by hype313 |
But Leicester had arguably a stronger squad with PL players, recently in the PL for a significant while, yet they're doing worse than us. |
Yeah, and as Phil said, that's to our (or rather McKenna's) credit. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 13:14 - Feb 24 with 688 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 12:09 - Feb 24 by FrimleyBlue |
I'd also be interested to find out who we ended up going to for stats....
We know we used the goalkeeper.com site for Muric
But who did we used for all others, because we lost our main data partner didn't we when we got promoted because of the conflict with brighton... |
I think if you look at the players we targeted, without hindsight, you can make a case for most of them. Funnily enough, one of the biggest doubts/gambles would've been Delap - who's turned out to be the biggest success. I remember people at the time saying his price was too high for what he'd done so far. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 13:40 - Feb 24 with 679 views | Trequartista |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 16:19 - Feb 23 by PhilTWTD |
It's essentially what Kieran McKenna has said all season. That the difference is that you build a squad more capable of competing at a higher level if you spend a number of years towards the top of the Championship, or in the case of Southampton and Leicester being up and down. We've come up from League One and then to the Premier League in successive seasons with a large part of the squad still that which was assembled in League One.
It's a big leap from the Championship to the Premier League, a much bigger one from League One to the Premier League. |
If he has been essentially saying we've been promoted too soon, why did he not slack off towards the end of last season and lose in the playoffs instead?
I agree with your logic, that we would come up with a stronger squad if we had been more years in the championship, but you can't come up "too soon". You can't rely on being promoted in later years. |  |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 13:48 - Feb 24 with 664 views | baxterbasics |
I also agree there's no such thing as 'too soon' - we will have a much stronger Championship squad next year than we would have had from grinding out a year or two down there. More cash available.
I don't criticise our recruitment, I think choices were limited, even with double the budget we had you're still having to convince experienced PL players to take a drop (in their eyes) to come to Ipswich when they have better prospects elsewhere. I think our recruitment deserves praise in how it's set us up if/when we return to Championship. Not that I think that was a priority consideration. |  |
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| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 14:32 - Feb 24 with 621 views | Herbivore |
| Is it really a surprise where we are? on 11:31 - Feb 24 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I think what people mean about getting promoted too early is not that you don't take it (money-wise you say thanks very much) but more in terms of being able to compete is very hard when you turn up to the Prem with more than half the squad being starters in League 1.
So just purely from a playing and being able to compete point of view, it's not stupid to suggest we got promoted to early. I'm sure the plan would've been to consolidate in the Champ, improve the squad as we did under Burley each year, and gradually improve in terms of team cohesion as much as better players. I doubt anyone in the club (or supporters) were expecting to go straight through the Champ. That's why we've had to rush like mad to get things up to standard both on and off the pitch, and why it's so difficult. |
The League 1 talk is a little misleading to be fair. Our first choice XI in League 1 was:
Walton
Clarke
Woolf
Burgess
Davis
Morsy
Luongo
Burns
Chaplin
Broadhead
Hirst
All of those players had played in the Championship, granted some hadn't played loads at that level but some had plenty of Championship experience. We could also bring players off the bench who also had Championship experience, like Ladapo, Edmundson, Ball, Evans, even Donacien and Jackson.
That we went up with most of those players starting in the Championship is testament to McKenna as a manager but also an indication that they are good players who were playing well below their natural level in League 1, so I don't fully buy the argument that we got promoted to the Prem with a League 1 squad. None of that starting XI (except maybe Mass due to his age) will be dropping down to League 1 anytime soon, they're too good for that level. [Post edited 24 Feb 14:34]
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