| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything 09:18 - Nov 13 with 2495 views | thebooks |
This is a really important bit of research, I think:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/13/who-votes-for-reform-and-why-ch
TLDR: Reform is on course to win the next election (inc. both Ipswich seats), but its voter base is wildly varied (like Trump's).
Lab saying there's no money to fix anything while waving flags and trying to be reasonably racist will gift Farage the election.
It is partly reassuring to hear that immigration isn't actually the most important issue for all Reform voters, however it might seem on social media, the news, wherever.
Farage will have problems keeping any coalition together once in power (again, like Trump), but a weak,unpopular opposition (for Dems read the current Labour party) will only help him. |  | | |  |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:35 - Nov 13 with 627 views | onceablue |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:20 - Nov 13 by ElderGrizzly |
"The most hated PM in history"?
It's this type GB News rhetoric that makes it all such a nonsense.
Given how slow policies at this national level have an impact and the fiscal drag of some decisions, it is very true that Tory policies are still having to be unpicked and are still having a significant effect. |
Sorry I meant to say most unpopular PM in history, although I do think hate for same people applies
In a recent Ipsos poll 79% of those asked were unsatisfied with Starmer with just 13% satisfied obviously the other 8% couldn’t care less
You may be one of the 13% but in are very much in the minority my friend! |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:38 - Nov 13 with 621 views | onceablue |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:26 - Nov 13 by Guthrum |
People want a quick, easy solution to the cost of living crisis that does not cost them, personally, anything.
Those who deny such a thing exists will struggle against rivals prepared to promise the unrealistic. |
Did labour not promise the unrealistic in their manifesto then? | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:46 - Nov 13 with 610 views | Guthrum |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:38 - Nov 13 by onceablue |
Did labour not promise the unrealistic in their manifesto then? |
Not to the same degree. That such massive savings can be made from public services without destroying them. That unrelated issues (e.g. immigration) will fix the economy. That they can achieve where all their predecessors have fallen short.
In 2024 Labour's case, they mostly talked in terms of a slightly greater administrative competence. In that respect they haven't excelled, but aren't any worse, either. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:47 - Nov 13 with 600 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:35 - Nov 13 by onceablue |
Sorry I meant to say most unpopular PM in history, although I do think hate for same people applies
In a recent Ipsos poll 79% of those asked were unsatisfied with Starmer with just 13% satisfied obviously the other 8% couldn’t care less
You may be one of the 13% but in are very much in the minority my friend! |
When the majority of the media spend most hours of the day looking for the next 'disaster' as GB put it on the other thread, it's no surprise people are unhappy.
I haven't seen that poll, but why were 79% unhappy? Immigration? Economy? NHS?
And if they were unhappy, what magic spell are they using to make it better?
Political leaders are almost universally unpopular. It comes with the territory. |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:49 - Nov 13 with 585 views | Churchman |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:23 - Nov 13 by noggin |
I just don't get it. Do so many people really think their lives will improve if Reform win a GE? A protest vote is madness, if it makes things worse (see Brexit) |
Governments lose elections, the opposition never wins them. That’s the key to this and the only way I can see Farage’s nutters and failures getting anywhere near.
Labour needs to take it seriously - they’re sleepwalking to disaster because while Reform are a bunch of weirds offering nothing but fag packet nonsense, they are not just a protest vote. They should be, but aren’t.
Labour cannot rely blaming the tories for the next three years (yes, yes yes, we know what those swines did, Starmer). They have to actually do something about it or at least plan to do something beyond making everyone poorer and saying there’s nothing we can do.
So what could they do? Just a few random thoughts:
1. Set up a war bonds style scheme for investment
2. Plan to take water back into public ownership by fining water companies out of business.
3. Sack that swivel eyed loon Milliband and start coming up with a sensible mixed energy policy that stops driving business out.
4. Engage with the EU to open up that market place. We can’t do anything about the 2016 insanity, but we can accept failure and do something about it
5. Employ more a Tax Inspectors to close the tax gap and chase the big hitter criminals (tax is a really good way of hurting them - see Untouchables)
6. Adopt the best practices on healthcare management other European countries operate and get on with it.
7. Put the country before their party and stop telling lies. Parties of all colours have been doing it for decades.
8. Back to the above paragraph, accept that immigration is a concern to a lot of people for differing reasons and either do something about it or publicly justify the merits of it (don’t forget Blair/Brown promoted it in the 90s) and debate it out with Farage. |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:53 - Nov 13 with 572 views | NthQldITFC |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:23 - Nov 13 by noggin |
I just don't get it. Do so many people really think their lives will improve if Reform win a GE? A protest vote is madness, if it makes things worse (see Brexit) |
Labour are a mess in terms of political direction and prone to stupid gaffes.
The Tory period degenerated steadily from something possibly a bit better than what we have now (and I say that very much as a leftie) into a shallow self-serving, corrupt Johnsonian toilet, and then to the ridiculous, embarrassing near-catastrophic Truss episode.
If Reform do get in, the whole country will be dropping into a pit of sh!t, gross incompetence and national structural failure ten times worse than Truss was promising.
If you're a potential Reform voter, for Christ's sake think about the consequences. It won't just be the poor or brown fked over by those charlatans, it will be pretty much all of us.
Don't do it.
Whatever protests you want to make about immigration (which will certainly be addressed more effectively than it has been by whoever gets in), don't bring your whole country down to make them.
Look at Kent. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:59 - Nov 13 with 557 views | Guthrum |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:18 - Nov 13 by ElderGrizzly |
They are simply using the RW media's talking point to try and ssssh the dissenters.
No-one truly believes they are going to throw away another 3 1/2 years of power. |
Certainly not at a moment when they are so far on the back foot in the polls. If you're going to call a snap early election, it has to be at a time of maximum advantage.
In any case, 16 months is nowhere near enough time for governmental change to mature. | |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:10 - Nov 13 with 529 views | thebooks |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:49 - Nov 13 by Churchman |
Governments lose elections, the opposition never wins them. That’s the key to this and the only way I can see Farage’s nutters and failures getting anywhere near.
Labour needs to take it seriously - they’re sleepwalking to disaster because while Reform are a bunch of weirds offering nothing but fag packet nonsense, they are not just a protest vote. They should be, but aren’t.
Labour cannot rely blaming the tories for the next three years (yes, yes yes, we know what those swines did, Starmer). They have to actually do something about it or at least plan to do something beyond making everyone poorer and saying there’s nothing we can do.
So what could they do? Just a few random thoughts:
1. Set up a war bonds style scheme for investment
2. Plan to take water back into public ownership by fining water companies out of business.
3. Sack that swivel eyed loon Milliband and start coming up with a sensible mixed energy policy that stops driving business out.
4. Engage with the EU to open up that market place. We can’t do anything about the 2016 insanity, but we can accept failure and do something about it
5. Employ more a Tax Inspectors to close the tax gap and chase the big hitter criminals (tax is a really good way of hurting them - see Untouchables)
6. Adopt the best practices on healthcare management other European countries operate and get on with it.
7. Put the country before their party and stop telling lies. Parties of all colours have been doing it for decades.
8. Back to the above paragraph, accept that immigration is a concern to a lot of people for differing reasons and either do something about it or publicly justify the merits of it (don’t forget Blair/Brown promoted it in the 90s) and debate it out with Farage. |
I think this is spot on. It's alright saying that Reform are lunatics (and they are) but the States shows us that does not matter.
Labour need to drop the Tories' spending rules and putting faith in vague ideas of growth (or even more alarmingly AI) to sort out incomes and spending.
I might differ with your points 1-8, but it is at least trying to do _something_. | | | |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:15 - Nov 13 with 510 views | Churchman |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:10 - Nov 13 by thebooks |
I think this is spot on. It's alright saying that Reform are lunatics (and they are) but the States shows us that does not matter.
Labour need to drop the Tories' spending rules and putting faith in vague ideas of growth (or even more alarmingly AI) to sort out incomes and spending.
I might differ with your points 1-8, but it is at least trying to do _something_. |
I think that’s the point. Of course my ‘suggestions’ are weak. I’m neither creative or politically savvy. Even my economics knowledge and understanding of how government works is out of date now.
But 1-8 is very much about wanting them to look forward, not back.
Like the avatar btw - great reminder of the best regular celebration I’ve ever seen (Herman’s bar dive was a one off) | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:30 - Nov 13 with 481 views | soupytwist |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:53 - Nov 13 by ElderGrizzly |
The "don't have the answers" thing is interesting though.
Reform (or any party) would inherit the same issues, with the same legal system and same structures.
If we want better public services, we need to invest more in it. Reform have bluntly said they would cut more, so how does that work?
The media dressing up Reform as 'something new' like the media did with Trump in 2016 in the USA have a huge burden to bear if something similar happens here.
Reform aren't 'something new', they are run by people who weren't good enough or were too crazy for the current incarnation of the Tory party. |
Reform has consistently said that it will break or opt-out of the legal structures like the ECHR that might (for better or worse depending on your point of view) be preventing the implementation of their solutions.
Whether throwing off the yoke of pesky international law will actually make a difference is debatable. But like most things they propose it's attractive because of its apparent simplicity and no one is talking about the possible unintended consequences. |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:47 - Nov 13 with 437 views | leitrimblue |
The Tories and now Labour have completely failed vast swathes of the population and don't appear to have a clue how to win them back.
Perhaps it might take a Reform government to force them into bucking their ideas up. Personally I would have no interest in voting for the Conservatives or Labour at the moment |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:49 - Nov 13 with 433 views | Basuco |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:46 - Nov 13 by Guthrum |
Not to the same degree. That such massive savings can be made from public services without destroying them. That unrelated issues (e.g. immigration) will fix the economy. That they can achieve where all their predecessors have fallen short.
In 2024 Labour's case, they mostly talked in terms of a slightly greater administrative competence. In that respect they haven't excelled, but aren't any worse, either. |
But Reform will stop the boats on day one and that will save £50 billion, also require everyone to have medical insurance to get health care that will save another £50 billion, this will fund tax cuts for those earning over £1 million a year. While also following on with the Liz Truss tried and trusted budget. |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:55 - Nov 13 with 404 views | J2BLUE |
I am hoping this is an empty threat. Easier to say Reform in a survey than actually vote for them.
There will be plenty for the average person to like in the Reform manifesto because they can simply lie. Farage has said anything in their manifesto is an aim or aspirational rather than a commitment so they can pretty much promise anything while having no attention of honouring it. Then they can say things were worse than they thought and we need to have a "difficult conversation" about the NHS.
Edit: video won't load. On Youtube search Farage NHS insurance to see his real views in his own words [Post edited 13 Nov 11:56]
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:59 - Nov 13 with 387 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:30 - Nov 13 by soupytwist |
Reform has consistently said that it will break or opt-out of the legal structures like the ECHR that might (for better or worse depending on your point of view) be preventing the implementation of their solutions.
Whether throwing off the yoke of pesky international law will actually make a difference is debatable. But like most things they propose it's attractive because of its apparent simplicity and no one is talking about the possible unintended consequences. |
But Reform are lying. Those structures aren't stopping anything.
It's just another 'enemy' for Reform to point their sh!tty stick at | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 12:01 - Nov 13 with 375 views | leitrimblue |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:59 - Nov 13 by ElderGrizzly |
But Reform are lying. Those structures aren't stopping anything.
It's just another 'enemy' for Reform to point their sh!tty stick at |
I use to love playing sh!tty stick as a kid.
Was Haverhills Chalkstone Estate Champion 3 years running | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:18 - Nov 13 with 283 views | Pinewoodblue |
I may be in a minority but I believe one of the reasons for Reform’s results in the last election, and in the polls, was the effectiveness of Starmer’s time for change campaign at the last election.
Those who had previously voted Tory, and agreed it was time for a change voted Reform. Ironically a significant contributor in the size of Labour’s majority in HoC.
Wouldn’t write off Lib Dems who really ought to be picking disillusioned voters from both Tories & Labour. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:22 - Nov 13 with 269 views | Guthrum |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 11:47 - Nov 13 by leitrimblue |
The Tories and now Labour have completely failed vast swathes of the population and don't appear to have a clue how to win them back.
Perhaps it might take a Reform government to force them into bucking their ideas up. Personally I would have no interest in voting for the Conservatives or Labour at the moment |
Problem with that being, much like Trump in the US, the amount of damage they do to the country and its institutions (maybe even democracy itself) during the years they are in power while the "bucking up" takes place.
Plus there is a limit to how much one can "buck up ideas" while contimuing to work within the constraints of the real world. Their attempts to follow the perceived public mood have already looked floundering and (especially the Conservatives) desperate. Plus the latest opinion polls show that over 70% of the electorate are not Reform backers, thus apeing their ideas too closely will merely alienate much of the base support who are of other opinions (as the Tories are finding).
In any case, nobody has ever won a General Election outright on 26% of the vote. | |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:23 - Nov 13 with 258 views | reusersfreekicks |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 09:57 - Nov 13 by djgooder |
I was thinking the same.
But also we have swung massively left, including the conservatives in last few decades this will be a massive over correction should it happen. Although Brexit was a complete opposite swing in the middle.
Worries me we will just keep swinging back and forth in future years. Truth is we need a centre party. But everything is so polarised these days, if you are not left you are right and vice a versa. There is no compromise or reasoning. All very American. |
"But also we have swung massively left, including the conservatives in last few decades "
Feck me |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:24 - Nov 13 with 252 views | NthQldITFC |
Pants. | |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:29 - Nov 13 with 231 views | reusersfreekicks |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:16 - Nov 13 by GlasgowBlue |
Not just the right wing media. In order to quell dissent in the ranks, Downing Street is briefing that there would have to be an election if Starmer is toppled. |
And you believe that? | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:33 - Nov 13 with 225 views | hype313 |
If Labour and the Tories weren't so abjectly disastrous, then loony parties like Reform would be non existent.
It's a damning indictment of our main 2 political parties that they have no idea, direction, philosophy, and are at constant in house civil warfare.
Meanwhile, the rest of us get absolutely destroyed day in day out with the cost of living, public services down the pan and the most expensive energy prices in the world.
If I was under 25, I would be doing everything in my power to seek a better life elsewhere. |  |
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| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:37 - Nov 13 with 213 views | JakeITFC |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:26 - Nov 13 by Guthrum |
People want a quick, easy solution to the cost of living crisis that does not cost them, personally, anything.
Those who deny such a thing exists will struggle against rivals prepared to promise the unrealistic. |
 |  | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:44 - Nov 13 with 199 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:33 - Nov 13 by hype313 |
If Labour and the Tories weren't so abjectly disastrous, then loony parties like Reform would be non existent.
It's a damning indictment of our main 2 political parties that they have no idea, direction, philosophy, and are at constant in house civil warfare.
Meanwhile, the rest of us get absolutely destroyed day in day out with the cost of living, public services down the pan and the most expensive energy prices in the world.
If I was under 25, I would be doing everything in my power to seek a better life elsewhere. |
Well Nigel made that all the more difficult in 2016... | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 14:01 - Nov 13 with 163 views | EddyJ |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 13:23 - Nov 13 by reusersfreekicks |
"But also we have swung massively left, including the conservatives in last few decades "
Feck me |
People need to be clear what they mean by "swung left".
Fiscally, we have been following Thatcherite neo-liberalism, which has shrunk the state (privatising utilities, selling off council houses etc...) and concentrated wealth in a smaller and smaller group of people. i.e we have moved "right".
Socially, we have generally trended towards more progressive positions. Racism, sexism, ablism, homophobia etc... are generally much reduced and less mainstream than they were decades ago. The past 2-3 years have seen a setback in this regard, triggered in part by the Israel-Palestine conflict and Trumpism. But we are still significantly better off than we were 30 years ago. i.e. we have moved "left". | | | |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 14:08 - Nov 13 with 144 views | ITFC_Forever |
| Reform set to win both Ipswich seats, but immigration not everything on 10:17 - Nov 13 by onceablue |
If Labour want to win the next election they must get rid of Starmer.
Starmer is the most hated PM in history.
I know many Labour voters who have said they will never vote Labour whilst Starmer is still in charge.
Starmer has to stop blaming the previous government for everything people even some labour voters are sick of it.
Imagine McKenna taking over as manager and we loose every week for 17 months and his excuse every week is I inherited a poor side regardless he would have been sacked by now |
Starmer is the most hated / unpopular PM in history?!
He’s not even the most hated / unpopular this decade. [Post edited 13 Nov 14:09]
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