| Interesting thread re the General Election 15:19 - Oct 29 with 6893 views | itfcjoe |
By Glen O'hara on Twitter @gsoh31
Really think the Tories are in the midst of the most terrible error. Huge risks in a GE. Remainers' last chance - they may well coalesce around Labour, and vote tactically.
Corbyn the campaigner. Just like in 2017, they're riding to his rescue when he's at his lowest ebb. He wants to get out and give speeches about austerity. It will re-energise him. They've got him hemmed in, and they're about to let him out of his box.
SNP and Lib Dem risk. Tories may do better in Scotland than they fear, but they're going to lose at least 5, maybe up to 10/11 seats there - and c15-20 in suburban London/ England to the LDs.
Sticky Labour voters. As soon as the GE is announced, Lab numbers will rise as d/k and won't vote return 'home'. And are the people of Wrexham, Blackpool, Grimsby really going to compensate BoJo for losing 30 seats to SNP/ LD? I doubt it.
Labour campaigning. The public like nationalisation and the abolition of tuition fees. Yes #Brexit election, but those policies will now get another airing. And 400k+ members will make a splash.
Huge uncertainty. Look at any proper evidence, and it says 'the public don't know what to think'. Massive % of don't know. You're about to force them to decide. I'm willing to bet that a pretty detested ten-year-old govt won't come off well.
This is the *classic* bully's error - overconfidence, sloppiness, lack of empathy, failure to prepare, big picture guff. I have to say that I don't give the Tories more than a 30%, 40% chance of holding on.
Think it's quite interesting, Tories will have to win a majority to stay in Government and can anyone see anything but a Hung parliament? Some sort of Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green 'Progressive Coalition' could get the numbers and then we are in a much better position |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:21 - Oct 29 with 4147 views | SpruceMoose |
I'd have an easier time coalescing around a Corbyn lead Labour party if I genuinely thought he wanted to remain. |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:23 - Oct 29 with 4131 views | Steve_M |
I've just read the piece where he expands that into an article:
https://capx.co/why-boris-election-gamble-could-backfire/
There's an awful lot up for grabs this time, the last two General Elections have been particularly volatile and people will vote as tactically as they can with two unpopular leaders of the biggest parties. |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:25 - Oct 29 with 4119 views | StokieBlue |
An awful lot of hearsay in that post and totally ignores the polling.
Not sure you can have a progressive alliance when JC isn't really that keen on remaining and might even poll against a deal he negotiates. It also makes no mention of the fact that outside of his network JC is very unpopular (look at the leader polling).
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 15:26]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:27 - Oct 29 with 4099 views | Pinewoodblue |
What would be interesting is if Lab /Libdem/Greens put up a joint candidate against Boris. |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:29 - Oct 29 with 4079 views | SpruceMoose |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:27 - Oct 29 by Pinewoodblue |
What would be interesting is if Lab /Libdem/Greens put up a joint candidate against Boris. |
Imagine that, putting self interest aside for the national good. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:30 - Oct 29 with 4072 views | giant_stow |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:25 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
An awful lot of hearsay in that post and totally ignores the polling.
Not sure you can have a progressive alliance when JC isn't really that keen on remaining and might even poll against a deal he negotiates. It also makes no mention of the fact that outside of his network JC is very unpopular (look at the leader polling).
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 15:26]
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True, but not sure reaminers have a lot of choice? |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:33 - Oct 29 with 4061 views | giant_stow |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:23 - Oct 29 by Steve_M |
I've just read the piece where he expands that into an article:
https://capx.co/why-boris-election-gamble-could-backfire/
There's an awful lot up for grabs this time, the last two General Elections have been particularly volatile and people will vote as tactically as they can with two unpopular leaders of the biggest parties. |
nice new website to add to the list -ta. | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:36 - Oct 29 with 4055 views | StokieBlue |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:30 - Oct 29 by giant_stow |
True, but not sure reaminers have a lot of choice? |
Well they have the Lib Dems if they are pure remainers but as you say, in many constituencies that won't help.
Labour haven't shown any sign of being the party of remain over the last 3 years with JC in charge.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:37 - Oct 29 with 4045 views | itfcjoe |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:25 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
An awful lot of hearsay in that post and totally ignores the polling.
Not sure you can have a progressive alliance when JC isn't really that keen on remaining and might even poll against a deal he negotiates. It also makes no mention of the fact that outside of his network JC is very unpopular (look at the leader polling).
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 15:26]
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At the moment a Brexit deal negotiaited by Corbyn (Customs Union) which would be put back to the people is far more Progressive than Boris Johnson bludgeoning a Hard Brexit deal through | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:42 - Oct 29 with 4026 views | GeoffSentence |
"Remainers' last chance - they may well coalesce around Labour, and vote tactically."
This is why a GE is such a bad idea for sorting out this mess. A GE is about so much more than one issue, and there will be people who vote just on this one thing rather than all the other important matters for the next parliament.
Another referendum - remain vs the deal is the only way out.
Then a GE to vote on all the other stuff. |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:59 - Oct 29 with 3970 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:21 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
I'd have an easier time coalescing around a Corbyn lead Labour party if I genuinely thought he wanted to remain. |
Well, quite. The only 'Remainer' party availbale across the whole of the UK is the LD. |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:01 - Oct 29 with 3961 views | Swansea_Blue |
Not sure whether it's been mentioned before, but it's a bt of a shame theat Heidi Allen is stepping dow due to the abuse she gets. We shouuldn't be letting the morons win, but then that's easy for me to say as I'm not getting rape and death threats or whatever she's had to put up with. | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:05 - Oct 29 with 3956 views | Mullet |
Anything which ensures the Tories get the full backlash for what they've done gets my vote, so that's not really clear at the minute is it?
Can't trust the Lib Dems ever again, Corbyn is better suited to some sort of banana republic with the climate for tweed and berets. It's a mess.
By rights the traitors in government who have been banding that word around and riding on some imaginary spitfire to the past that never existed should be ground to dust in any meaningful vote. They won't though. We'll have years of austerity and excuses as to why Jeremy is to blame. |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:06 - Oct 29 with 3953 views | Guthrum |
Why would the Remain vote coalesce around Labour, a party which officially espouses leaving the EU?
Rather than, say, the LibDems? [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 16:07]
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:11 - Oct 29 with 3922 views | footers |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:21 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
I'd have an easier time coalescing around a Corbyn lead Labour party if I genuinely thought he wanted to remain. |
Whether Corbyn wants to leave or remain is irrelevant in terms of the Labour Party though, as its policy is dictacted by members and conference. Hence why their position isn't as straightforward as some would like. But that's the price of democracy. |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:14 - Oct 29 with 3901 views | itfcjoe |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:06 - Oct 29 by Guthrum |
Why would the Remain vote coalesce around Labour, a party which officially espouses leaving the EU?
Rather than, say, the LibDems? [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 16:07]
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They did in 2017, and tactical voting very much a thing now (sure it always has been) | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:15 - Oct 29 with 3897 views | SpruceMoose |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:11 - Oct 29 by footers |
Whether Corbyn wants to leave or remain is irrelevant in terms of the Labour Party though, as its policy is dictacted by members and conference. Hence why their position isn't as straightforward as some would like. But that's the price of democracy. |
You know far more about this than me Footers old boy.
I was under the impression the vast majority of Labour's membership were out and proud Remainers gagging for a second ref?
Have I got that wrong? If not, how come they haven't been able to enforce that desire on the messages coming out from the top of the party yet? | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:17 - Oct 29 with 3881 views | footers |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:15 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
You know far more about this than me Footers old boy.
I was under the impression the vast majority of Labour's membership were out and proud Remainers gagging for a second ref?
Have I got that wrong? If not, how come they haven't been able to enforce that desire on the messages coming out from the top of the party yet? |
Because of traditional Labour seats oop norf wanting to leave. They just can't please everyone in the party, which is how we've come to a bit of a fudge on it. Can Labour risk alienating those voters? Think a second referendum is a sensible, democratic way of settling it, tbh. But of course the Brexit wags will call it treachery etc. [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 16:17]
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:18 - Oct 29 with 3873 views | SpruceMoose |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:17 - Oct 29 by footers |
Because of traditional Labour seats oop norf wanting to leave. They just can't please everyone in the party, which is how we've come to a bit of a fudge on it. Can Labour risk alienating those voters? Think a second referendum is a sensible, democratic way of settling it, tbh. But of course the Brexit wags will call it treachery etc. [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 16:17]
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I see.
That all makes sense. No wonder you left for the Brexit Party lad! | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:18 - Oct 29 with 3874 views | vilanovablue |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:25 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
An awful lot of hearsay in that post and totally ignores the polling.
Not sure you can have a progressive alliance when JC isn't really that keen on remaining and might even poll against a deal he negotiates. It also makes no mention of the fact that outside of his network JC is very unpopular (look at the leader polling).
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 15:26]
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I genuinely don't believe the polls tells us anything at this stage. The Conservatives have stage managed keeping Johnson out of the press so far. During an election campaign he will have to come out into the open and I think that might cause him a few problems and expose his weakness at answering questions when properly challenged. In the same was as May I genuinely believe the campaign will be bad for him.
I think Labour have an uphill battle but worry we'll end up with a hung parliament again which helps nobody and probably further exposes the divisions in the country. |  | | |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:19 - Oct 29 with 3861 views | SpruceMoose |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:18 - Oct 29 by vilanovablue |
I genuinely don't believe the polls tells us anything at this stage. The Conservatives have stage managed keeping Johnson out of the press so far. During an election campaign he will have to come out into the open and I think that might cause him a few problems and expose his weakness at answering questions when properly challenged. In the same was as May I genuinely believe the campaign will be bad for him.
I think Labour have an uphill battle but worry we'll end up with a hung parliament again which helps nobody and probably further exposes the divisions in the country. |
Let's just have a second referendum and be done with it. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:22 - Oct 29 with 3838 views | GaryCooper |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:21 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
I'd have an easier time coalescing around a Corbyn lead Labour party if I genuinely thought he wanted to remain. |
He is a Bennite, he wants no part of the EU, still silly remainers support him by voting for the party he leads. |  | | |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:22 - Oct 29 with 3836 views | footers |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:18 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
I see.
That all makes sense. No wonder you left for the Brexit Party lad! |
Bloody hell. I've been in the Communist Party, Brexit Party, Labour Party and god-knows what other parties today!
Must make me mind up...  | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:23 - Oct 29 with 3830 views | SpruceMoose |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:22 - Oct 29 by GaryCooper |
He is a Bennite, he wants no part of the EU, still silly remainers support him by voting for the party he leads. |
I think Footers attempt at explaining the situation is better than yours. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:25 - Oct 29 with 3818 views | footers |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:23 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
I think Footers attempt at explaining the situation is better than yours. |
And I think his former guise of imsureazure was slightly funnier. But it's a game of opinions I spose. | |
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