| Interesting thread re the General Election 15:19 - Oct 29 with 6933 views | itfcjoe |
By Glen O'hara on Twitter @gsoh31
Really think the Tories are in the midst of the most terrible error. Huge risks in a GE. Remainers' last chance - they may well coalesce around Labour, and vote tactically.
Corbyn the campaigner. Just like in 2017, they're riding to his rescue when he's at his lowest ebb. He wants to get out and give speeches about austerity. It will re-energise him. They've got him hemmed in, and they're about to let him out of his box.
SNP and Lib Dem risk. Tories may do better in Scotland than they fear, but they're going to lose at least 5, maybe up to 10/11 seats there - and c15-20 in suburban London/ England to the LDs.
Sticky Labour voters. As soon as the GE is announced, Lab numbers will rise as d/k and won't vote return 'home'. And are the people of Wrexham, Blackpool, Grimsby really going to compensate BoJo for losing 30 seats to SNP/ LD? I doubt it.
Labour campaigning. The public like nationalisation and the abolition of tuition fees. Yes #Brexit election, but those policies will now get another airing. And 400k+ members will make a splash.
Huge uncertainty. Look at any proper evidence, and it says 'the public don't know what to think'. Massive % of don't know. You're about to force them to decide. I'm willing to bet that a pretty detested ten-year-old govt won't come off well.
This is the *classic* bully's error - overconfidence, sloppiness, lack of empathy, failure to prepare, big picture guff. I have to say that I don't give the Tories more than a 30%, 40% chance of holding on.
Think it's quite interesting, Tories will have to win a majority to stay in Government and can anyone see anything but a Hung parliament? Some sort of Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green 'Progressive Coalition' could get the numbers and then we are in a much better position |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 17:17 - Oct 29 with 1030 views | mrshallisfit |
Also remember May was an abysmal campaigner in 2017. Johnson will be far more successful in that respect. Let's face it he couldnt be worse. |  | | |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 17:37 - Oct 29 with 989 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:29 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
Imagine that, putting self interest aside for the national good. |
Even if that was for the ‘greater good’, that would only happen if they were a remain alliance and turn the election into even more of a referendum on Brexit than it already promises to be - and result in them getting smashed |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 17:44 - Oct 29 with 980 views | jas0999 |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:25 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
An awful lot of hearsay in that post and totally ignores the polling.
Not sure you can have a progressive alliance when JC isn't really that keen on remaining and might even poll against a deal he negotiates. It also makes no mention of the fact that outside of his network JC is very unpopular (look at the leader polling).
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 15:26]
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Labours position or more specifically lack of it re Brexit could be a major factor. It’s far more complex to Lib Dem’s definite Remain and Tories leave. | | | |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 17:51 - Oct 29 with 977 views | bournemouthblue |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:21 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
I'd have an easier time coalescing around a Corbyn lead Labour party if I genuinely thought he wanted to remain. |
Does he even have say he wants to remain?
If he pushes for a Binding Referendum on the final deal, that's going to be enough for vast swathes of the electorate any way |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 17:51 - Oct 29 with 976 views | SpruceMoose |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 17:51 - Oct 29 by bournemouthblue |
Does he even have say he wants to remain?
If he pushes for a Binding Referendum on the final deal, that's going to be enough for vast swathes of the electorate any way |
It probably would be, but everything I have seen makes me think he most certainly does not want to do that. |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 17:54 - Oct 29 with 975 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:59 - Oct 29 by Swansea_Blue |
Well, quite. The only 'Remainer' party availbale across the whole of the UK is the LD. |
I think the Greens are pretty pissed off with the Lib Dems constantly repeating this. |  | | |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 18:04 - Oct 29 with 966 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 15:37 - Oct 29 by itfcjoe |
At the moment a Brexit deal negotiaited by Corbyn (Customs Union) which would be put back to the people is far more Progressive than Boris Johnson bludgeoning a Hard Brexit deal through |
What we need is a referendum between a Boris bridge to Ireland and a Jezza one to Norway. |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 18:05 - Oct 29 with 965 views | SpruceMoose |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 18:04 - Oct 29 by BanksterDebtSlave |
What we need is a referendum between a Boris bridge to Ireland and a Jezza one to Norway. |
No option for a tunnel to Iceland? | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 18:19 - Oct 29 with 947 views | Herbivore |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 17:17 - Oct 29 by mrshallisfit |
Also remember May was an abysmal campaigner in 2017. Johnson will be far more successful in that respect. Let's face it he couldnt be worse. |
Have you seen him in front of a camera? |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:37 - Oct 29 with 896 views | sparks |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 16:59 - Oct 29 by SpruceMoose |
What about people who have never gone anywhere or done anything of note? How are we judging 'life experience' experience anyway? Sounds like a course on offer at the University of Life.
Or how about people who only exist and operate within their narrow social bubble? People like JRM? What does he know of my life experience?
I'm surprised Bully would make that argument to be honest. Seems riddled with holes. [Post edited 29 Oct 2019 17:00]
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Most 16 year olds have never tried to make their own way in the world in any form. That's significant. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:40 - Oct 29 with 894 views | m14_blue |
I’ve no idea what will happen but I do think the Tories may have underestimated the anger there is in the country from remain supporters.
They may not be as shouty and aggressive as the Brexit lot but there are many millions of us absolutely furious at what the Tories have done to our country and how they have put our children’s futures at risk and poisoned the country, all for no benefit to the general population at all.
I suspect many people will vote for whoever is likely to beat the Tory candidate, regardless of their relentless anti Corbyn propaganda. | | | |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:40 - Oct 29 with 891 views | footers |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:37 - Oct 29 by sparks |
Most 16 year olds have never tried to make their own way in the world in any form. That's significant. |
A lot of lazy people haven't either. If it's that significant, we'd have to start dictating voting on a purely qualitative basis.
Your argument is bobbins. |  |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:44 - Oct 29 with 883 views | itfcjoe |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:40 - Oct 29 by m14_blue |
I’ve no idea what will happen but I do think the Tories may have underestimated the anger there is in the country from remain supporters.
They may not be as shouty and aggressive as the Brexit lot but there are many millions of us absolutely furious at what the Tories have done to our country and how they have put our children’s futures at risk and poisoned the country, all for no benefit to the general population at all.
I suspect many people will vote for whoever is likely to beat the Tory candidate, regardless of their relentless anti Corbyn propaganda. |
Fingers crossed | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:45 - Oct 29 with 881 views | StokieBlue |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:37 - Oct 29 by sparks |
Most 16 year olds have never tried to make their own way in the world in any form. That's significant. |
I'm not sure about this.
There isn't much quantitative analysis that I'm aware of to show that 16 year olds are less well informed than other people. I'd wager there is a fair amount of anecdotal evidence to suggest that they are better informed than the majority of the electorate.
If you restricted the argument to things like tax policy I think it would be stronger but on things like environmental policy I'm not convinced the youngsters wouldn't come out on top.
16 to 18 is a fairly arbitrary distinction anyway. I'm sure there are a lot of 16 year olds who are better informed than 18 year olds.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:46 - Oct 29 with 879 views | sparks |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:40 - Oct 29 by footers |
A lot of lazy people haven't either. If it's that significant, we'd have to start dictating voting on a purely qualitative basis.
Your argument is bobbins. |
No. It's rational.
How about 14 year olds? Iif not, why not?
I knew shyte all at 16 other than received wisdom from parents and the papers we had delivered. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:49 - Oct 29 with 866 views | sparks |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:45 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
I'm not sure about this.
There isn't much quantitative analysis that I'm aware of to show that 16 year olds are less well informed than other people. I'd wager there is a fair amount of anecdotal evidence to suggest that they are better informed than the majority of the electorate.
If you restricted the argument to things like tax policy I think it would be stronger but on things like environmental policy I'm not convinced the youngsters wouldn't come out on top.
16 to 18 is a fairly arbitrary distinction anyway. I'm sure there are a lot of 16 year olds who are better informed than 18 year olds.
SB |
Of course there is an arbitrary element. But at 18 a person leaves education and starts to earn a living or moves to higher education, usually away from home.
There is a clear and obvious reason to make that the demarcation. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:57 - Oct 29 with 854 views | footers |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:46 - Oct 29 by sparks |
No. It's rational.
How about 14 year olds? Iif not, why not?
I knew shyte all at 16 other than received wisdom from parents and the papers we had delivered. |
Then you are making an argument for means testing.
I know thirty-year-olds who can barely tie their laces, but by your logic they should get the nod over a 16-year-old who's clued up.
Again, it becomes a qualitative issue.
Just because you were an idiot at 16 doesn't mean everyone else is. | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:08 - Oct 29 with 833 views | Herbivore |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:46 - Oct 29 by sparks |
No. It's rational.
How about 14 year olds? Iif not, why not?
I knew shyte all at 16 other than received wisdom from parents and the papers we had delivered. |
That's a rather poor argument from experience. Not all of us were pig ignorant at 16. | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:12 - Oct 29 with 827 views | sparks |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 21:57 - Oct 29 by footers |
Then you are making an argument for means testing.
I know thirty-year-olds who can barely tie their laces, but by your logic they should get the nod over a 16-year-old who's clued up.
Again, it becomes a qualitative issue.
Just because you were an idiot at 16 doesn't mean everyone else is. |
That its full of fallacies. Just because it is imperfect and doesn't apply to all does not mean it's not the most rational choice of a broadly arbitrary cut off. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:19 - Oct 29 with 816 views | Oxford_Blue |
Thank god.
Now we can leave the EU and give effect to the promise made to 17.4 million people. | | | |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:24 - Oct 29 with 800 views | itfcjoe |
Decent election video from Labour
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:25 - Oct 29 with 793 views | footers |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:12 - Oct 29 by sparks |
That its full of fallacies. Just because it is imperfect and doesn't apply to all does not mean it's not the most rational choice of a broadly arbitrary cut off. |
You're the one selecting criteria based on perceived experience, not me, fella.
Many 16-year-olds work and have worked for quite a few years. Many may have more 'real-world' experience than either you or I, dependent on circumstance.
"Just because it is imperfect and doesn't apply to all does not mean it's not the most rational choice."
I suppose if they're so naieve you're also supportive of ideas disallowing them from leaving education, joining the army, having families, etc? | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:25 - Oct 29 with 793 views | Herbivore |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:19 - Oct 29 by Oxford_Blue |
Thank god.
Now we can leave the EU and give effect to the promise made to 17.4 million people. |
Brexitbot is here, right on cue. | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:27 - Oct 29 with 789 views | footers |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:19 - Oct 29 by Oxford_Blue |
Thank god.
Now we can leave the EU and give effect to the promise made to 17.4 million people. |
Sweet. So £350m extra for the NHS? Or was that just an aspiration?
17.4 million people had no idea what they were voting for. Time for a second referendum. | |
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| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:36 - Oct 29 with 772 views | sparks |
| Interesting thread re the General Election on 22:25 - Oct 29 by footers |
You're the one selecting criteria based on perceived experience, not me, fella.
Many 16-year-olds work and have worked for quite a few years. Many may have more 'real-world' experience than either you or I, dependent on circumstance.
"Just because it is imperfect and doesn't apply to all does not mean it's not the most rational choice."
I suppose if they're so naieve you're also supportive of ideas disallowing them from leaving education, joining the army, having families, etc? |
Nonsense.
16 year olds can't leave education completely anymore.
They can't go into combat inn the army.
Things rarely end well when they start families. Though good luck to those that do irrespective of intent.
It is a fact that most 16 year olds have not even begun to live under their own steam or even away from home. We need some sort of demarcation. That is surely significant in terms of insight into voting.
Otherwise why 16 instead of 14? Or perhaps 12? | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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