| Nuclear war and/or WW3 09:43 - Oct 13 with 2605 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
How close do we reckon? Lots of stories in the last couple of days about Russia saying Ukraine joining NATO would 'guarantee' WW3, and other officials saying that Russia using a nuke in Ukraine would lead to a 'physical' response by NATO.
Just wondering as I've currently voted on my poll that ITFC will reach the Prem before WW3 and I want to know if I should change it.
In all seriousness I wasn't alive during the Cuban Missile Crisis and I am interested how similar things are at the moment and how much genuine risk there is.
Otherwise how do people see the war in Ukraine ending? Is it only when Putin gets assassinated by his own team? |  |
| |  |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 09:46 - Oct 13 with 2164 views | J2BLUE |
Russia cannot defeat Ukraine. Threatening NATO is ridiculous.
I think China will turn on Russia long before nukes are used.
This is purely me speculating but I wonder if this might reach a stage where the west needs China to tell Putin to pack it in and they might use it to get us to abandon Taiwan. Again, me speculating and I have no idea how likely/possible that is. It might be a complete no go. |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 09:47 - Oct 13 with 2152 views | WeWereZombies |
It's already happened, didn't you notice ? |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 09:48 - Oct 13 with 2145 views | Mookamoo |
Depends on what happens with Crimea. There is absolutely no way Russia (and I don't just mean Putin) will allow the loss of Crimea. They will destroy it first. |  | | |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 09:52 - Oct 13 with 2098 views | Oldsmoker |
Putin needs to save face. He will refuse to be humiliated.
Putin will never negotiate an end to the war. That's weakness.
He will have to relinquish power and let someone else do that.
He could then 'arrange' to win the next presidential election and resume power with his reputation as a strong man intact. |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 09:54 - Oct 13 with 2084 views | Swansea_Blue |
I think we're all holding out for an internal job aren't we? Although it seems there are those worse than Putin in positions of influence in Russia, so that could be a case of BCWYWF (not that I'm in any way, shape or form defending that a-hole Putin). |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:02 - Oct 13 with 2058 views | giant_stow |
Personally, I can see Putin backed into a corner by military defeats and having no choice (in his mind) but do something drastic. Not sure if that'll be nuclear though - could just as easily be nerve weapons as per Syria or hybrid stuff like more undersea cables / pipes getting blown up, which might be just as devastating in their own ways.
What happens after that is anyone's guess. At best, a polarised world of two blocks maybe? Looks like the Saudis have made their choice, so we'd best get onto green energy as an absolute priority - urgent urgent now! |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:09 - Oct 13 with 1990 views | homer_123 |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 09:54 - Oct 13 by Swansea_Blue |
I think we're all holding out for an internal job aren't we? Although it seems there are those worse than Putin in positions of influence in Russia, so that could be a case of BCWYWF (not that I'm in any way, shape or form defending that a-hole Putin). |
So, according to some on here, we stick with Putin, cause the next person might be worse. |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:25 - Oct 13 with 1914 views | chicoazul |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:09 - Oct 13 by homer_123 |
So, according to some on here, we stick with Putin, cause the next person might be worse. |
Exactly right. Regime change does not work very well for Western powers in general but the local population specifically. |  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:27 - Oct 13 with 1923 views | Guthrum |
Not all that close (by 2022 standards), for a number of reasons.
1) Putin still thinks he can win - for some function of "win" - the conflict, so there is no need to resort to the use of nuclear weapons.
2) Even after much rhetoric implying the threat of nuclear weapons, the very significant attack on the Kerch bridge (a vital piece of infrastructure closely linked to Putin as a personal project) has been answered only with a volley of conventional missiles.
3) The West has directly stated it would respond strongly to any use of nuclear weapons. I'm pretty sure this has been stated more explicitly via back-channels. Moreover, I doubt Moscow's semi-friends in New Delhi and Beijing would be at all keen on the idea.
4) There is still no really useful target for a tactical nuclear weapon. No large concentration of forces or major supply choke-point. It would, at best, be a demonstration, crossing a major red line and inviting repercussions for no practical purpose.
5) If Putin was mad and actually wanted a nuclear war, it would have happened by now.
I think Putin has discovered the limitation of nuclear arms. Using them is such a big deal that there is no half-way house. You can't have a slightly nuclear war in which the other side don't fire them back. For practical purposes, they are useless as anything other than a deterrant (fleet-in-being, to apply an older term). |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:35 - Oct 13 with 1832 views | Radlett_blue |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 09:52 - Oct 13 by Oldsmoker |
Putin needs to save face. He will refuse to be humiliated.
Putin will never negotiate an end to the war. That's weakness.
He will have to relinquish power and let someone else do that.
He could then 'arrange' to win the next presidential election and resume power with his reputation as a strong man intact. |
Indeed, it's near impossible to see Putin stepping down. This is always a problem with dictatorships - how do you depose the dictator without killing him & then what do you do with him?
If Putin was killed, as Russia isn't a democratic country there is no proper mechanism for getting a reliable replacement so you could easily get someone as bad. Rather like the speculation about how things would have played out in Nazi Germany if Hitler had been successfully assassinated.
Hard to know how far Putin might go in an attempt to "win" the Ukrainian War. I hope his threats of nuclear weapons are bluster, but you don't know. That's one of the big problems with nuclear weapons or other WMD - at some stage, someone is at least going to threaten to use them, so do you simply raise the stakes & make it clear that if he uses them, then his obliteration is guaranteed? |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:36 - Oct 13 with 1834 views | MattinLondon |
The only way for Putin to withdraw from the Ukraine is to dangle some carrots in front of him in order that he can claim some sort of victory. Unsure whether the Ukraine will agree to this given how much of their country has been destroyed and how many Ukrainian deaths there has been.
Maybe if they have guarantees that the EU etc will continue to buy their gas for a couple decades but with significant monies from that being given to Ukraine to rebuild their country. Maybe the Crimea being devolved from the rest of the country but not under Russian control.
Not sure if Putin is ‘taken out’ that will have much bearing as there are a few of his generals who are much more aggressive. |  | | |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:41 - Oct 13 with 1793 views | PrrrromotionGiven |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:36 - Oct 13 by MattinLondon |
The only way for Putin to withdraw from the Ukraine is to dangle some carrots in front of him in order that he can claim some sort of victory. Unsure whether the Ukraine will agree to this given how much of their country has been destroyed and how many Ukrainian deaths there has been.
Maybe if they have guarantees that the EU etc will continue to buy their gas for a couple decades but with significant monies from that being given to Ukraine to rebuild their country. Maybe the Crimea being devolved from the rest of the country but not under Russian control.
Not sure if Putin is ‘taken out’ that will have much bearing as there are a few of his generals who are much more aggressive. |
It's just "Ukraine", not "the Ukraine"
bit of a joke that anyone still hasn't got the hang of this tbh |  | | |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:44 - Oct 13 with 1771 views | Guthrum |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:35 - Oct 13 by Radlett_blue |
Indeed, it's near impossible to see Putin stepping down. This is always a problem with dictatorships - how do you depose the dictator without killing him & then what do you do with him?
If Putin was killed, as Russia isn't a democratic country there is no proper mechanism for getting a reliable replacement so you could easily get someone as bad. Rather like the speculation about how things would have played out in Nazi Germany if Hitler had been successfully assassinated.
Hard to know how far Putin might go in an attempt to "win" the Ukrainian War. I hope his threats of nuclear weapons are bluster, but you don't know. That's one of the big problems with nuclear weapons or other WMD - at some stage, someone is at least going to threaten to use them, so do you simply raise the stakes & make it clear that if he uses them, then his obliteration is guaranteed? |
I think Putin stepping down - or being forced to - is not all that far fetched. As long as he has protection against prosecution and imprisonment, with a pliant successor who will not overturn that and might even continue to take his advice, that would be enough as a bare minimum. I'm sure he'd rather die in his bed than in a cell, a bunker (with no country left to govern) or a nuclear fireball. | |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:47 - Oct 13 with 1749 views | homer_123 |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:25 - Oct 13 by chicoazul |
Exactly right. Regime change does not work very well for Western powers in general but the local population specifically. |
I'm not agreeing with you Chico. | |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 11:10 - Oct 13 with 1664 views | vilanovablue |
I think the use of tactical nukes is unlikely as Putin knows what the response would be which would likely be more concrete support from the west. My main concern is the nuclear power plant and I wouldn't put it past the Russians to sabotage it or do some damage which could have nasty consequences. It would also be harder to pin blame on the Russians given it's location. |  | | |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 11:14 - Oct 13 with 1649 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
Nuclear war is extremely unlikely. Someone would stop Putin from doing that. |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 11:18 - Oct 13 with 1618 views | Churchman |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:27 - Oct 13 by Guthrum |
Not all that close (by 2022 standards), for a number of reasons.
1) Putin still thinks he can win - for some function of "win" - the conflict, so there is no need to resort to the use of nuclear weapons.
2) Even after much rhetoric implying the threat of nuclear weapons, the very significant attack on the Kerch bridge (a vital piece of infrastructure closely linked to Putin as a personal project) has been answered only with a volley of conventional missiles.
3) The West has directly stated it would respond strongly to any use of nuclear weapons. I'm pretty sure this has been stated more explicitly via back-channels. Moreover, I doubt Moscow's semi-friends in New Delhi and Beijing would be at all keen on the idea.
4) There is still no really useful target for a tactical nuclear weapon. No large concentration of forces or major supply choke-point. It would, at best, be a demonstration, crossing a major red line and inviting repercussions for no practical purpose.
5) If Putin was mad and actually wanted a nuclear war, it would have happened by now.
I think Putin has discovered the limitation of nuclear arms. Using them is such a big deal that there is no half-way house. You can't have a slightly nuclear war in which the other side don't fire them back. For practical purposes, they are useless as anything other than a deterrant (fleet-in-being, to apply an older term). |
I agree with Guthrum’s take on this.
As long as Biden makes it 100% clear that if Putin crosses the line with this, it’s all over - he’s a dead man as are all those important to him, he won’t do it.
His Chinese best mates don’t want any of it either and that’s crucial. In addition, it’s not just a question of him pressing the snooze button. I suspect if he gives any such order his own military will kill him. They’ll have nothing to lose.
As for the weapons themselves you cannot make them sound limited or tame by calling them tactical. Yes, they are much less powerful than strategic, but a tactical nuclear device can be many more times powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
I personally don't see deploying these as viable in any way shape or form. He literally signs his own death warrant if he does. He might try chemical weapons though and kill a lot of predominantly civilians, but again, I can’t see how that gains him anything. |  | | |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 11:19 - Oct 13 with 1611 views | chicoazul |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:47 - Oct 13 by homer_123 |
I'm not agreeing with you Chico. |
Oh I know don’t worry. I’m just meeting sarcasm with same. | |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 12:52 - Oct 13 with 1396 views | BlueNomad |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:27 - Oct 13 by Guthrum |
Not all that close (by 2022 standards), for a number of reasons.
1) Putin still thinks he can win - for some function of "win" - the conflict, so there is no need to resort to the use of nuclear weapons.
2) Even after much rhetoric implying the threat of nuclear weapons, the very significant attack on the Kerch bridge (a vital piece of infrastructure closely linked to Putin as a personal project) has been answered only with a volley of conventional missiles.
3) The West has directly stated it would respond strongly to any use of nuclear weapons. I'm pretty sure this has been stated more explicitly via back-channels. Moreover, I doubt Moscow's semi-friends in New Delhi and Beijing would be at all keen on the idea.
4) There is still no really useful target for a tactical nuclear weapon. No large concentration of forces or major supply choke-point. It would, at best, be a demonstration, crossing a major red line and inviting repercussions for no practical purpose.
5) If Putin was mad and actually wanted a nuclear war, it would have happened by now.
I think Putin has discovered the limitation of nuclear arms. Using them is such a big deal that there is no half-way house. You can't have a slightly nuclear war in which the other side don't fire them back. For practical purposes, they are useless as anything other than a deterrant (fleet-in-being, to apply an older term). |
Neither will he want the wind blowing back across the border. Nuclear weapons are an even worse idea if you decide to use them on your next door neighbour. |  | | |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:02 - Oct 13 with 1349 views | brazil1982 |
I wouldnt be surprised if a tactical nuke was dropped on Ukraine, as a "see what we can do" message which would also stop Ukraine from further fighting. What will the world do? It wont retaliate with kind. More sanctions. |  | | |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:09 - Oct 13 with 1328 views | Churchman |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:02 - Oct 13 by brazil1982 |
I wouldnt be surprised if a tactical nuke was dropped on Ukraine, as a "see what we can do" message which would also stop Ukraine from further fighting. What will the world do? It wont retaliate with kind. More sanctions. |
The response won’t be sanctions. | | | |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:18 - Oct 13 with 1284 views | blueasfook |
I dont think Ukraine will be the catalyst for WW3 unless things seriously escalate.
More likely the spark to light it will be when China invade Taiwan. |  |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:41 - Oct 13 with 1204 views | Guthrum |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:02 - Oct 13 by brazil1982 |
I wouldnt be surprised if a tactical nuke was dropped on Ukraine, as a "see what we can do" message which would also stop Ukraine from further fighting. What will the world do? It wont retaliate with kind. More sanctions. |
Why would Ukraine stop fighting if a nuclear weapon (especially a tactical-sized one) was used? Their cities have already been smashed up. It would make little difference on the front line, how well can Russia's raw drafted reservists, mercenaries and Chechens operate on a nuclear battlefield anyway? Kyiv know they would then be able to rely on much increased support from the West under those circumstances.
If Ukraine stops fighting, Russia will win. What have the former got to lose by continuing? | |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:45 - Oct 13 with 1182 views | giant_stow |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:09 - Oct 13 by Churchman |
The response won’t be sanctions. |
Agree for what its worth. I think the Americans have made it clear that there'd be a military response. From what I've read that would most likely be conventional attacks on Russian forces in Ukraine and/or on the tactical nuke systems used, even if based in Russia. | |
| |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 13:56 - Oct 13 with 1141 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Nuclear war and/or WW3 on 10:09 - Oct 13 by homer_123 |
So, according to some on here, we stick with Putin, cause the next person might be worse. |
I'd be worried about what could be next if one of the real hardliner headbangers were to take over, but obviously we need to see the end of Putin.
If it was down to me, I'd go with Big Fat Sam until the end of the season. | |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
