| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) 22:59 - Mar 24 with 2826 views | unstableblue |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:04 - Mar 24 with 2806 views | TheBoyBlue |
What makes you say 95 points are needed? |  |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:06 - Mar 24 with 2800 views | J2BLUE |
That would need Plymouth to drop 9 points or Sheff Wed to drop 13.
I'm sure McKenna would take a 95 point target right now. |  |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:41 - Mar 24 with 2736 views | unstableblue |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:06 - Mar 24 by J2BLUE |
That would need Plymouth to drop 9 points or Sheff Wed to drop 13.
I'm sure McKenna would take a 95 point target right now. |
When you put it like that then play-offs is the path.
Think Plymouth will drop 7
Meaning we can only drop 5? | |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:48 - Mar 24 with 2736 views | Simonds92 |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:41 - Mar 24 by unstableblue |
When you put it like that then play-offs is the path.
Think Plymouth will drop 7
Meaning we can only drop 5? |
Its about 90% chance we get in the playoffs. I have no idea why so many people are convinced we'll make top 2 its madness. Not because we cant reach a decent points haul but because the other teams are so relentless. I dont think 95 is enough. I think 96 gets us up on goal difference but theres no real point guessing what number gets top 2. | | | |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 06:41 - Mar 25 with 2542 views | textbackup |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:48 - Mar 24 by Simonds92 |
Its about 90% chance we get in the playoffs. I have no idea why so many people are convinced we'll make top 2 its madness. Not because we cant reach a decent points haul but because the other teams are so relentless. I dont think 95 is enough. I think 96 gets us up on goal difference but theres no real point guessing what number gets top 2. |
I’ve gone from starting the season confident of top 2, to pissed off we chucked top 2 away, to nervous, to now just proper excited of the end of the season.
Chances are we won’t make top 2, for the reasons you mention. However, the football we’ve played of late is giving me real optimism for taking on the PO’s |  |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 06:53 - Mar 25 with 2515 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:48 - Mar 24 by Simonds92 |
Its about 90% chance we get in the playoffs. I have no idea why so many people are convinced we'll make top 2 its madness. Not because we cant reach a decent points haul but because the other teams are so relentless. I dont think 95 is enough. I think 96 gets us up on goal difference but theres no real point guessing what number gets top 2. |
It's hardly madness. If we win our game in hand, we need one result better than Plymouth. You'd make them favourites (although the bookies don't). Statistically, it was a 30% chance of automatic promotion after last weekend. | | | |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:05 - Mar 25 with 2467 views | davblue |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 06:53 - Mar 25 by tractorboy1978 |
It's hardly madness. If we win our game in hand, we need one result better than Plymouth. You'd make them favourites (although the bookies don't). Statistically, it was a 30% chance of automatic promotion after last weekend. |
Assuming that we win all our other games which is extremely unlikely.
It might only be 2 points on paper if we win the game in hand but we have 3 tough away games to come, Plymouth don’t look like they have a bad run in them and they are on 80 points now, so 15 needed for 95 points.
I desperately want to be wrong but I can’t see it no matter how well we are playing. If them 2 get 95 + points and we get very close to that you have to hold your hands up and say well done, I would
Be cool with that, sometimes in life that’s things happen and I wouldn’t see that as a failure in the grand context of the season. |  | | |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:13 - Mar 25 with 2454 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:05 - Mar 25 by davblue |
Assuming that we win all our other games which is extremely unlikely.
It might only be 2 points on paper if we win the game in hand but we have 3 tough away games to come, Plymouth don’t look like they have a bad run in them and they are on 80 points now, so 15 needed for 95 points.
I desperately want to be wrong but I can’t see it no matter how well we are playing. If them 2 get 95 + points and we get very close to that you have to hold your hands up and say well done, I would
Be cool with that, sometimes in life that’s things happen and I wouldn’t see that as a failure in the grand context of the season. |
At this stage of the season you always get funny results. I put this up the other day but last season Rotherham got 10 points in their last 8 games. Wigan got 16 in their last 10. Both really dropped off from their first 38/36 games.
Plymouth are obviously favourites but I do think people are overdoing this 'easy run' talk. [Post edited 25 Mar 2023 7:15]
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:20 - Mar 25 with 2433 views | textbackup |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:13 - Mar 25 by tractorboy1978 |
At this stage of the season you always get funny results. I put this up the other day but last season Rotherham got 10 points in their last 8 games. Wigan got 16 in their last 10. Both really dropped off from their first 38/36 games.
Plymouth are obviously favourites but I do think people are overdoing this 'easy run' talk. [Post edited 25 Mar 2023 7:15]
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I think it’s based on how brilliant they’ve been at home this season. | |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:51 - Mar 25 with 2383 views | iamatractorboy |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:13 - Mar 25 by tractorboy1978 |
At this stage of the season you always get funny results. I put this up the other day but last season Rotherham got 10 points in their last 8 games. Wigan got 16 in their last 10. Both really dropped off from their first 38/36 games.
Plymouth are obviously favourites but I do think people are overdoing this 'easy run' talk. [Post edited 25 Mar 2023 7:15]
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Were Rotherham 'on the beach' by this stage though? I can't remember exactly but I'm fairly sure they were well clear and probably just eased off a bit, which is understandable psychologically? Not so sure about Wigan to be fair. | | | |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 08:06 - Mar 25 with 2346 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:51 - Mar 25 by iamatractorboy |
Were Rotherham 'on the beach' by this stage though? I can't remember exactly but I'm fairly sure they were well clear and probably just eased off a bit, which is understandable psychologically? Not so sure about Wigan to be fair. |
No far from it. It was a three horse race between Rotherham, Wigan and MK for the top 2. Rotherham had dropped to 3rd before they beat us last season off the back of 3 losses in a row (losing 3-0 at home to Shrewsbury in there). Wigan lost 2-1 at home to Cambridge in the run in. Strange results happen! [Post edited 25 Mar 2023 8:10]
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 08:06 - Mar 25 with 2347 views | Herbivore |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:48 - Mar 24 by Simonds92 |
Its about 90% chance we get in the playoffs. I have no idea why so many people are convinced we'll make top 2 its madness. Not because we cant reach a decent points haul but because the other teams are so relentless. I dont think 95 is enough. I think 96 gets us up on goal difference but theres no real point guessing what number gets top 2. |
Over the last 6 games we've picked up 6 points more than Plymouth and 5 points more than Wednesday. Both will drop points over their remaining 8-10 games, it's whether we can keep on winning ourselves. |  |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 09:56 - Mar 25 with 2069 views | blueislander |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 06:53 - Mar 25 by tractorboy1978 |
It's hardly madness. If we win our game in hand, we need one result better than Plymouth. You'd make them favourites (although the bookies don't). Statistically, it was a 30% chance of automatic promotion after last weekend. |
It’s been said before. The bookies make the odds based on the bets laid, and not what they may think will happen . There was a huge amount of money placed on Town earlier in the season, so they are not going to be generous now , whereas they stand to lose much less if Plymouth go up. | | | |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 11:27 - Mar 25 with 1914 views | Guthrum |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:48 - Mar 24 by Simonds92 |
Its about 90% chance we get in the playoffs. I have no idea why so many people are convinced we'll make top 2 its madness. Not because we cant reach a decent points haul but because the other teams are so relentless. I dont think 95 is enough. I think 96 gets us up on goal difference but theres no real point guessing what number gets top 2. |
You say relentless, but Plymouth have lost two and drawn one out of the last seven (their last two victories being Forest Green and Accrington), Sheff Weds' most recent results were a draw and a loss. They're probably saying the same about us with our six wins on the trot and unbeaten since 21st January. [Post edited 25 Mar 2023 11:32]
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 11:37 - Mar 25 with 1894 views | clive_baker |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 08:06 - Mar 25 by Herbivore |
Over the last 6 games we've picked up 6 points more than Plymouth and 5 points more than Wednesday. Both will drop points over their remaining 8-10 games, it's whether we can keep on winning ourselves. |
Quite right. We’ve got some tough games for sure, namely Derby, Peterborough and Barnsley. But as you say if we can keep winning we’ll continue to close the gap. Plymouth especially remain the ones to catch IMO and I’ve thought that for a long time. On 15th Feb we were 10 points behind with the same GD. Now if we win our GIH it’s 2 points with a significantly better GD. That’s some gain in 5 weeks, we don’t need anything like that over the next 5.
We’re still the underdog in that race, especially given our fixtures, but if we beat Derby next weekend I would say we’ll have a heck of a chance of going into the final 4 matches sat in the top 2. |  |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 11:41 - Mar 25 with 1884 views | clive_baker |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:20 - Mar 25 by textbackup |
I think it’s based on how brilliant they’ve been at home this season. |
3 of their next 4 are away though, in a very short period of time with a lot of travel. They’re perfectly capable of dropping 3 or 4 points in their next 4 league games IMO. It’s going to be a case of whether we can only drop 0 or 2. | |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 12:50 - Mar 25 with 1784 views | NthQldITFC |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 11:37 - Mar 25 by clive_baker |
Quite right. We’ve got some tough games for sure, namely Derby, Peterborough and Barnsley. But as you say if we can keep winning we’ll continue to close the gap. Plymouth especially remain the ones to catch IMO and I’ve thought that for a long time. On 15th Feb we were 10 points behind with the same GD. Now if we win our GIH it’s 2 points with a significantly better GD. That’s some gain in 5 weeks, we don’t need anything like that over the next 5.
We’re still the underdog in that race, especially given our fixtures, but if we beat Derby next weekend I would say we’ll have a heck of a chance of going into the final 4 matches sat in the top 2. |
Derby, Peterborough and Barnsley away are tough games in League One, but even with our form of a few months ago (lots of possession and high xG differential, but drawing rather than winning), you'd not have been surprised had we won one or two of those.
We have now added a ruthlessness to that form, and frankly it wouldn't surprise me if we won the first two and drew at Barnsley, or even won all three. Very, very doable, given a bit of luck and performing close to our best.
I've got us down for 5 point outs of those games, and I think that's on the conservative side. Most importantly we must, at worst, draw with Barnsley. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 12:56 - Mar 25 with 1778 views | Trequartista |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 23:48 - Mar 24 by Simonds92 |
Its about 90% chance we get in the playoffs. I have no idea why so many people are convinced we'll make top 2 its madness. Not because we cant reach a decent points haul but because the other teams are so relentless. I dont think 95 is enough. I think 96 gets us up on goal difference but theres no real point guessing what number gets top 2. |
Because had one deflected goal in the 90th minute not gone in, it would be in our hands. That's how tight it is. |  |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 14:22 - Mar 25 with 1663 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 09:56 - Mar 25 by blueislander |
It’s been said before. The bookies make the odds based on the bets laid, and not what they may think will happen . There was a huge amount of money placed on Town earlier in the season, so they are not going to be generous now , whereas they stand to lose much less if Plymouth go up. |
That’s not even close to being correct as to how a betting market is formed for what it’s worth. |  |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 17:32 - Mar 25 with 1454 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:20 - Mar 25 by textbackup |
I think it’s based on how brilliant they’ve been at home this season. |
But not all of their remaining fixtures are at home. Their away record is 28 points from 19 matches. One of their easy matches is to visit Shrewsbury who have 32 points from 18 at home. One of their remaining home fixtures is against Bristol Rovers who haven't got to travel several hundred miles to get there and also have a half decent away record.
There is a long way to go and who knows whether Cambridge, Morecambe and Burton will put up a fight against relegation or whether Lincoln and Exeter will relax and put in a good performance with nothing to play for?
Ultimately we need to get every point we can and let the others worry about themselves. Wednesday are not home and dry yet either. |  |
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| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:54 - Mar 26 with 1186 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 17:32 - Mar 25 by Nthsuffolkblue |
But not all of their remaining fixtures are at home. Their away record is 28 points from 19 matches. One of their easy matches is to visit Shrewsbury who have 32 points from 18 at home. One of their remaining home fixtures is against Bristol Rovers who haven't got to travel several hundred miles to get there and also have a half decent away record.
There is a long way to go and who knows whether Cambridge, Morecambe and Burton will put up a fight against relegation or whether Lincoln and Exeter will relax and put in a good performance with nothing to play for?
Ultimately we need to get every point we can and let the others worry about themselves. Wednesday are not home and dry yet either. |
Beating Plymouth in the derby is all Exeter have to play for now. | | | |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 08:12 - Mar 26 with 1152 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 11:41 - Mar 25 by clive_baker |
3 of their next 4 are away though, in a very short period of time with a lot of travel. They’re perfectly capable of dropping 3 or 4 points in their next 4 league games IMO. It’s going to be a case of whether we can only drop 0 or 2. |
Next weekend is huge for me. The Derby game feels like a gateway between a great run of 6 wins on the spin and 4 fairly nice games (3 of which are at home). Plymouth having the stuffing knocked out of them losing at Wembley going into 3 out of 4 away from home would also be nice. | | | |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 19:04 - Mar 26 with 884 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 102 points available; 95 needed; 7 point margin for error - tight (n/t) on 07:13 - Mar 25 by tractorboy1978 |
At this stage of the season you always get funny results. I put this up the other day but last season Rotherham got 10 points in their last 8 games. Wigan got 16 in their last 10. Both really dropped off from their first 38/36 games.
Plymouth are obviously favourites but I do think people are overdoing this 'easy run' talk. [Post edited 25 Mar 2023 7:15]
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I don't want to say I told you so but... | | | |
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