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No surprises that things will get worse before they get 07:53 - Mar 29 with 5431 viewshomer_123

Better and that tougher measures will come in.

Said from the very outset that this was always the endgame for us regardless of the fact the UK tried a different path.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52079922

Stay safe everyone.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 08:40 - Mar 29 with 3526 viewsHerbivore

Shame we wasted a week messing about with the whole herd immunity thing. We lost some valuable time there. If the number of deaths continues to double every 2.5 days or so then we'll have over 32,000 deaths before the next fortnight is out. I can see why they're saying under 20,000 deaths would be a good result but it doesn't look all that likely to happen.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 09:02 - Mar 29 with 3498 viewsFtnfwest

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 08:40 - Mar 29 by Herbivore

Shame we wasted a week messing about with the whole herd immunity thing. We lost some valuable time there. If the number of deaths continues to double every 2.5 days or so then we'll have over 32,000 deaths before the next fortnight is out. I can see why they're saying under 20,000 deaths would be a good result but it doesn't look all that likely to happen.


The test case will be Sweden who are continuing with that strategy apparently
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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 09:27 - Mar 29 with 3441 viewsStokieBlue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 08:40 - Mar 29 by Herbivore

Shame we wasted a week messing about with the whole herd immunity thing. We lost some valuable time there. If the number of deaths continues to double every 2.5 days or so then we'll have over 32,000 deaths before the next fortnight is out. I can see why they're saying under 20,000 deaths would be a good result but it doesn't look all that likely to happen.


That is nearly 3 times the number of deaths in Italy thus far although their curve could continue but if we are 2 weeks behind that would imply our outbreak is 300% worse. The articles I've seen including today say we are on the same curve as Italy and Spain.

I'll have to go look at the numbers as that seems high. It's going to be bad either way though.




SB

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An issue with the introduction of more stringent measures on 09:54 - Mar 29 with 3380 viewsGuthrum

is the there is a delay of around 5 days before any changes begin to show up in the numbers of people showing symptoms (which we're not recording) and anything up to a fortnight in the death rate. Thus, even a week into the lockdown, we aren't yet in a position to assess its effectiveness, or whether stronger restrictions are actually necessary.

The rise in deaths we're seeing now are people who caught C-19 a week or 10 days ago. Before the lockdown commenced. It might even be a result of people's jolly to the Countryside last Saturday. Or just the disease natuurally rising towards a peak.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:01 - Mar 29 with 3334 viewsHerbivore

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 09:27 - Mar 29 by StokieBlue

That is nearly 3 times the number of deaths in Italy thus far although their curve could continue but if we are 2 weeks behind that would imply our outbreak is 300% worse. The articles I've seen including today say we are on the same curve as Italy and Spain.

I'll have to go look at the numbers as that seems high. It's going to be bad either way though.




SB


Hopefully our curve will slow but at the current rate of doubling the number of deaths would double five times in a fortnight. First time, it goes to 2k, second to 4k, third to 8k, fourth to 16k, then to 32k. Hopefully the measures will kick in and slow that rate down.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:06 - Mar 29 with 3335 viewsStokieBlue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:01 - Mar 29 by Herbivore

Hopefully our curve will slow but at the current rate of doubling the number of deaths would double five times in a fortnight. First time, it goes to 2k, second to 4k, third to 8k, fourth to 16k, then to 32k. Hopefully the measures will kick in and slow that rate down.


Agreed that would be the number if the curve continues but that curve has slowed everywhere after the lag has kicked in from measures taken.

Hopefully it will slow as you say.

SB

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:11 - Mar 29 with 3314 viewsGuthrum

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 08:40 - Mar 29 by Herbivore

Shame we wasted a week messing about with the whole herd immunity thing. We lost some valuable time there. If the number of deaths continues to double every 2.5 days or so then we'll have over 32,000 deaths before the next fortnight is out. I can see why they're saying under 20,000 deaths would be a good result but it doesn't look all that likely to happen.


But that's a purely mathematical extrapolation based on the present moment. There's no reason that should necessarily be the case.

The graph may flatten, or it may steepen even further. We may be able to truncate its peak. That depends upon many currently unknowable factors, such as how widespread infection really is within the populace, what proportion of people will develop severe symptoms, actual mortality rates, the future load upon the NHS and whether it is able to cope, the effectiveness of self-isolation in dealing with C-19 and so on.

Comparing us to China, Italy, or wherever is of limited use, given the different social structures, levels of public health (e.g. smoking) and medical services. Not to mention random factors such as C-19 getting into northern Italy's hospitals very early on.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:11 - Mar 29 with 3299 viewsHerbivore

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:06 - Mar 29 by StokieBlue

Agreed that would be the number if the curve continues but that curve has slowed everywhere after the lag has kicked in from measures taken.

Hopefully it will slow as you say.

SB


Fingers crossed.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:14 - Mar 29 with 3298 viewsElderGrizzly

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 09:27 - Mar 29 by StokieBlue

That is nearly 3 times the number of deaths in Italy thus far although their curve could continue but if we are 2 weeks behind that would imply our outbreak is 300% worse. The articles I've seen including today say we are on the same curve as Italy and Spain.

I'll have to go look at the numbers as that seems high. It's going to be bad either way though.




SB


And the lockdown won’t show any real results for 2 weeks or so.

Increasing measures now because of deaths over the next 10 days are in no way linked and would be pointless.

We do need to hold our nerve and see if this has worked
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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:15 - Mar 29 with 3289 viewspointofblue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 09:27 - Mar 29 by StokieBlue

That is nearly 3 times the number of deaths in Italy thus far although their curve could continue but if we are 2 weeks behind that would imply our outbreak is 300% worse. The articles I've seen including today say we are on the same curve as Italy and Spain.

I'll have to go look at the numbers as that seems high. It's going to be bad either way though.




SB


It’s interesting looking at the graph as it looks like the UK’s death rate is about to fall beneath Italy’s curve though the infection rate is above it. The latter makes me wonder if we waited to long even though I could understand the logic behind it and, as said, Sweden appear to be still trying that approach.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:16 - Mar 29 with 3285 viewsMullet

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:11 - Mar 29 by Guthrum

But that's a purely mathematical extrapolation based on the present moment. There's no reason that should necessarily be the case.

The graph may flatten, or it may steepen even further. We may be able to truncate its peak. That depends upon many currently unknowable factors, such as how widespread infection really is within the populace, what proportion of people will develop severe symptoms, actual mortality rates, the future load upon the NHS and whether it is able to cope, the effectiveness of self-isolation in dealing with C-19 and so on.

Comparing us to China, Italy, or wherever is of limited use, given the different social structures, levels of public health (e.g. smoking) and medical services. Not to mention random factors such as C-19 getting into northern Italy's hospitals very early on.


It’s difficult to see anything but a high death rate unfortunately because the perception is that so many people were so blasé, so recently. Alongside the clear evidence that just as Boris and Hancock stay home (having not followed their own advice seemingly) the ventilators are going to their mate and will be delayed further.

Combine that with flawed modelling from incomplete data and China/Russia/ Iran not providing accurate numbers and as you say it becomes a problematic yardstick.

One thing which seems highly illustrative is the limited testing numbers and how paltry our testing is compared to many countries we are supposedly better or equal to. I’m not sure our own data is perfect.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:24 - Mar 29 with 3255 viewsStokieBlue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:16 - Mar 29 by Mullet

It’s difficult to see anything but a high death rate unfortunately because the perception is that so many people were so blasé, so recently. Alongside the clear evidence that just as Boris and Hancock stay home (having not followed their own advice seemingly) the ventilators are going to their mate and will be delayed further.

Combine that with flawed modelling from incomplete data and China/Russia/ Iran not providing accurate numbers and as you say it becomes a problematic yardstick.

One thing which seems highly illustrative is the limited testing numbers and how paltry our testing is compared to many countries we are supposedly better or equal to. I’m not sure our own data is perfect.


The table here is rather interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

We aren't top by any means but we are also not totally awful on the testing. Some of the numbers really stand out though, especially France, Japan, India and especially Sweden given that are still taking the old UK approach.

There is the caveat that I don't know how often that table is updated.

SB

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:29 - Mar 29 with 3235 viewshype313

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 09:02 - Mar 29 by Ftnfwest

The test case will be Sweden who are continuing with that strategy apparently


Sweden have changed course within the past 48 hours, aligning with the rest of Europe

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:32 - Mar 29 with 3226 viewsMullet

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:24 - Mar 29 by StokieBlue

The table here is rather interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

We aren't top by any means but we are also not totally awful on the testing. Some of the numbers really stand out though, especially France, Japan, India and especially Sweden given that are still taking the old UK approach.

There is the caveat that I don't know how often that table is updated.

SB


No it feels like we were led the wrong way and panicked as country into being more in line and are fairly middling overall, but as we can see there isn’t clear (understandably so) data and universal agreement etc.

Although a quick scan of the test/million which are lower seem to be in South America or places like India which is interesting and in India’s case especially makes sense. But there seems to be far less testing in Germany despite reports to the contrary so I do wonder about everything when it comes to these models.

One thing that does seem to be really pertinent to me is how much stronger the media’s powers of representation and influence has become presumably because we are all at home and focused on it more.

Look outside and the suburbs are relative tranquil etc. Go online or switch the box on and it’s feeling very different, which doesn’t help.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:41 - Mar 29 with 3186 viewsSwansea_Blue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:16 - Mar 29 by Mullet

It’s difficult to see anything but a high death rate unfortunately because the perception is that so many people were so blasé, so recently. Alongside the clear evidence that just as Boris and Hancock stay home (having not followed their own advice seemingly) the ventilators are going to their mate and will be delayed further.

Combine that with flawed modelling from incomplete data and China/Russia/ Iran not providing accurate numbers and as you say it becomes a problematic yardstick.

One thing which seems highly illustrative is the limited testing numbers and how paltry our testing is compared to many countries we are supposedly better or equal to. I’m not sure our own data is perfect.


Lancet paywall is down. A fairly damning assessment of our approach:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fullt

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:43 - Mar 29 with 3169 viewssparks

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:24 - Mar 29 by StokieBlue

The table here is rather interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

We aren't top by any means but we are also not totally awful on the testing. Some of the numbers really stand out though, especially France, Japan, India and especially Sweden given that are still taking the old UK approach.

There is the caveat that I don't know how often that table is updated.

SB


Tests per million is perhaps the most relevant stat. We are pretty low on that for a country with one of the highest infection and death rates so far.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:44 - Mar 29 with 3158 viewspointofblue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:41 - Mar 29 by Swansea_Blue

Lancet paywall is down. A fairly damning assessment of our approach:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fullt


Deleted - talking rubbish.
[Post edited 29 Mar 2020 11:35]

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:47 - Mar 29 with 3148 viewsGuthrum

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:43 - Mar 29 by sparks

Tests per million is perhaps the most relevant stat. We are pretty low on that for a country with one of the highest infection and death rates so far.


Altho a lot of those above us are hotspot regions or smaller nations. Given the bottleneck with testing is the supply of reliable kits, that makes getting our figure (as a high-population country) up somewhat more difficult. Especially if we were a bit behind the curve to start off with.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:47 - Mar 29 with 3146 viewsSharkey

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:29 - Mar 29 by hype313

Sweden have changed course within the past 48 hours, aligning with the rest of Europe


Where do you get this information? I live in Malmö and see no information about a change of policy on the SVT (= Swedish BBC) website. On the contrary, the lead story is about foreign media's interest in Sweden's unusual approach. All shops and cafés were certainly open yesterday.
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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:47 - Mar 29 with 3142 viewsHerbivore

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:11 - Mar 29 by Guthrum

But that's a purely mathematical extrapolation based on the present moment. There's no reason that should necessarily be the case.

The graph may flatten, or it may steepen even further. We may be able to truncate its peak. That depends upon many currently unknowable factors, such as how widespread infection really is within the populace, what proportion of people will develop severe symptoms, actual mortality rates, the future load upon the NHS and whether it is able to cope, the effectiveness of self-isolation in dealing with C-19 and so on.

Comparing us to China, Italy, or wherever is of limited use, given the different social structures, levels of public health (e.g. smoking) and medical services. Not to mention random factors such as C-19 getting into northern Italy's hospitals very early on.


I've not said it's anything other than a mathematical extrapolation, although the government's whole strategy (or strategies) have essentially been based on mathematical extrapolation. The hope is that the measures bring that rate down of course, and we all hope that will be the case. If they don't then the numbers will be looking very big.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:50 - Mar 29 with 3134 viewsStokieBlue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:43 - Mar 29 by sparks

Tests per million is perhaps the most relevant stat. We are pretty low on that for a country with one of the highest infection and death rates so far.


Agreed it's probably a better metric.

This isn't defending our testing which could obviously be better but some of the stats for other countries are still shocking:

20 tests per million in India, 53 in Japan.

I think India is a real worry, that is basically no testing for a country of that size and they suddenly implemented a total lockdown the other day from nowhere. Given the density of their cities it could be truly awful.

SB

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:50 - Mar 29 with 3130 viewssparks

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:47 - Mar 29 by Guthrum

Altho a lot of those above us are hotspot regions or smaller nations. Given the bottleneck with testing is the supply of reliable kits, that makes getting our figure (as a high-population country) up somewhat more difficult. Especially if we were a bit behind the curve to start off with.


True- but we really are a very long way down that list, given that we are 8th in the infections league table.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:56 - Mar 29 with 3115 viewsSwansea_Blue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:44 - Mar 29 by pointofblue

Deleted - talking rubbish.
[Post edited 29 Mar 2020 11:35]


That makes no sense in the context of what The Lancet commentary is talking about.

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An issue with the introduction of more stringent measures on 10:57 - Mar 29 with 3102 viewshomer_123

An issue with the introduction of more stringent measures on 09:54 - Mar 29 by Guthrum

is the there is a delay of around 5 days before any changes begin to show up in the numbers of people showing symptoms (which we're not recording) and anything up to a fortnight in the death rate. Thus, even a week into the lockdown, we aren't yet in a position to assess its effectiveness, or whether stronger restrictions are actually necessary.

The rise in deaths we're seeing now are people who caught C-19 a week or 10 days ago. Before the lockdown commenced. It might even be a result of people's jolly to the Countryside last Saturday. Or just the disease natuurally rising towards a peak.


Indeed. More that we haven't hit peak and the reality is it will get worse before better.

And the ever tightening restrictions...which are right.

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No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 11:18 - Mar 29 with 3048 viewspointofblue

No surprises that things will get worse before they get on 10:56 - Mar 29 by Swansea_Blue

That makes no sense in the context of what The Lancet commentary is talking about.


No, I do apologise because it was failure to read first time around - the site crashed and I assumed it was another “we should have gone into lockdown sooner” article which, whilst possibly correct, is not exceptionally helpful now. Later, yes, when the enquiries begin but not now.

As it is that is frightening to read and I’m sure the CSO and CMO will be placed under scrutiny once this has passed. My biggest concern is there is no solution offered on the article; in other words we missed our opportunity to change the course.

The saddest thing is I doubt we’re the only country to fall foul of this. Other than South Korea, maybe, which was helped by the infections being exceptionally localised at the start, every nation seems to have been slow to grasp the seriousness of what was happening elsewhere and prepare.
[Post edited 29 Mar 2020 11:21]

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