| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. 12:17 - Aug 19 with 3918 views | ITFCBlues |
2.73 as opposed to the 6 we've conceded. Would be higher still due to the pen. Suggests we've been a tad unfortunate.
Is the defence really the issue?
Suggests to me that given time, we can expect to see things improve? |  |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:21 - Aug 19 with 2317 views | Mullet |
There does seem to be a few people claiming we’ve had loads of chances despite all the stats and heat maps saying the obvious, let alone other useful things like eyes. The problem is apart from the midfield two we’ve not settled on the units across the pitch.
That will come. We’ve made teams defend certainly, but hoping they might turn the ball into the net is not really attacking fluency. It’d be nice to see us shoot on sight until the wins come |  |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:22 - Aug 19 with 2304 views | Ryorry |
"XG"? |  |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:27 - Aug 19 with 2267 views | Ryorry |
Ah, ta 👠| |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:30 - Aug 19 with 2252 views | ITFCBlues |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:21 - Aug 19 by Mullet |
There does seem to be a few people claiming we’ve had loads of chances despite all the stats and heat maps saying the obvious, let alone other useful things like eyes. The problem is apart from the midfield two we’ve not settled on the units across the pitch.
That will come. We’ve made teams defend certainly, but hoping they might turn the ball into the net is not really attacking fluency. It’d be nice to see us shoot on sight until the wins come |
Yeah not sure what our actual XG is, assume it's be equally as low. | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:31 - Aug 19 with 2235 views | HARRY10 |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:27 - Aug 19 by Ryorry |
Ah, ta 👠|
more vacuous mumbo jumbo for those unable to understand what they are watching |  | | |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:32 - Aug 19 with 2233 views | jayessess |
We conceded from each of our first 5 shots on target this season, so yeah. |  |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:36 - Aug 19 with 2195 views | Dennyx4 |
Doesn't that normally mean that the Goalkeeper should be doing better? |  | | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:38 - Aug 19 with 2182 views | itfcjoe |
We have been, Hladky has conceded 6 goals from 8 shots on target - but then the game state of games like Morecambe saw them very happy with what they had so they weren't going to threaten.
Either way we need to create more, for all the talk of domination for first hour Tuesday we scored a good goal, Bonne missed a sitter from a long straight ball but that was it really. At Burton similar, Edwards hit the bar from long range.
Obviously a totally different game, but look at chances created v Newport - look where full backs were getting to etc - our game plan s getting full backs to the by line but hasn't happened enough in last couple |  |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:39 - Aug 19 with 2176 views | Mullet |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:36 - Aug 19 by Dennyx4 |
Doesn't that normally mean that the Goalkeeper should be doing better? |
Penalty aside, I can't make my mind up about Hladky and his lack of saves. He's possibly at fault a little bit for the 1st Morecambe goal, but had ridiculous defending ahead of him.
Thought that header for Cheltenham was pretty postage stamp so not much he could do. We seem very susceptible to counters and he does seem better at distribution to get us out of situations. It's just a sign for me as to how disjointed the whole side is in everything aspect. | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:43 - Aug 19 with 2135 views | Dennyx4 |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:39 - Aug 19 by Mullet |
Penalty aside, I can't make my mind up about Hladky and his lack of saves. He's possibly at fault a little bit for the 1st Morecambe goal, but had ridiculous defending ahead of him.
Thought that header for Cheltenham was pretty postage stamp so not much he could do. We seem very susceptible to counters and he does seem better at distribution to get us out of situations. It's just a sign for me as to how disjointed the whole side is in everything aspect. |
I know what you mean, am still a little unsure myself. Apparently had a good game v Crystal Palace, but missed that one.
Thought he went early on the Morecambe first one, and made the strikers mind up to have a shot from a tight angle.
Also thought he could have saved the Cheltenham first one, but not sure he had any chance with any of the other four, we have conceded in the league. | | | |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:46 - Aug 19 with 2118 views | Herbivore |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:39 - Aug 19 by Mullet |
Penalty aside, I can't make my mind up about Hladky and his lack of saves. He's possibly at fault a little bit for the 1st Morecambe goal, but had ridiculous defending ahead of him.
Thought that header for Cheltenham was pretty postage stamp so not much he could do. We seem very susceptible to counters and he does seem better at distribution to get us out of situations. It's just a sign for me as to how disjointed the whole side is in everything aspect. |
I also thought he didn't do brilliantly for the Morecambe first goal. By coming out as he did he created a gap and angle for Stockton to score, which he did well to give him his due. If he stays on his line with how wide Stockton had been pushed then he'd have needed a genuine worldy effort to beat the keeper. It was a bit naive for me. He's not really had much to do overall though, we're not leaking loads of chances but - despite what the XG says - the chances we're conceding are good chances. |  |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:47 - Aug 19 with 2106 views | jayessess |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:36 - Aug 19 by Dennyx4 |
Doesn't that normally mean that the Goalkeeper should be doing better? |
Sort of? xG is just "how often do people score when they shoot from that position". A goalkeeper could perform perfectly adequately and still under-perform xG if he faces a run of uncommonly well-hit shots.
For instance Burton's first goal was 0.2 xG, a good chance, but 4 times in 5 from that position a forward misses, hits it straight at the keeper or the keeper makes a good save. But not a lot to criticise the keeper for in terms of the actual shot. | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:49 - Aug 19 with 2088 views | TractorBoyOlly |
I hate expected goals. I could be expected to go to church on Sunday doesn’t mean I will. Such a pointless stat | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:55 - Aug 19 with 2042 views | jayessess |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:49 - Aug 19 by TractorBoyOlly |
I hate expected goals. I could be expected to go to church on Sunday doesn’t mean I will. Such a pointless stat |
Are you annoyed by shot counts, as well? Because that's all it is, essentially. | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:00 - Aug 19 with 2002 views | pointofblue |
Expected goals scored: 9th (0.79 xG)
Expected goals conceded: 20th (0.51 xG)
Interestingly Burton’s scored xG is 0.7 and conceded is 1.1 (both figures worse than ours) so you have to wonder how long the good times will last for them.
https://footystats.org/england/efl-league-one/xg | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:01 - Aug 19 with 1997 views | Rocky |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:49 - Aug 19 by TractorBoyOlly |
I hate expected goals. I could be expected to go to church on Sunday doesn’t mean I will. Such a pointless stat |
In isolation perhaps, but over many games a telling picture builds up. |  | | |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:06 - Aug 19 with 1962 views | Ryorry |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:31 - Aug 19 by HARRY10 |
more vacuous mumbo jumbo for those unable to understand what they are watching |
😂
Does that mean HoC speak "The Ayes have it" can now be recycled into "the eyes have it"?! | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:07 - Aug 19 with 1947 views | SomethingBlue |
Encouraging and worth pointing out given people rightly noted how bad our xG was during our good runs early in previous seasons, before we tanked. Think we need a few more games as sample size though. | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:15 - Aug 19 with 1906 views | itfcjoe |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:47 - Aug 19 by jayessess |
Sort of? xG is just "how often do people score when they shoot from that position". A goalkeeper could perform perfectly adequately and still under-perform xG if he faces a run of uncommonly well-hit shots.
For instance Burton's first goal was 0.2 xG, a good chance, but 4 times in 5 from that position a forward misses, hits it straight at the keeper or the keeper makes a good save. But not a lot to criticise the keeper for in terms of the actual shot. |
There is another stat which is xGOT which tells more about how well a goalkeeper is doing - on that he is shown as -3.1 goals in the goals prevented stakes | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:19 - Aug 19 with 1865 views | JakeITFC |
Quite annoying to concede from pretty much every chance the opposition create and reassuring to know that it surely won't continue.
As with our run in the first season down here, questions probably have to be asked as to why we are in tight, scrappy games with the quality we have at our disposal. Progress to be made in all areas of the pitch imo. |  | | |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:22 - Aug 19 with 1835 views | Herbivore |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:00 - Aug 19 by pointofblue |
Expected goals scored: 9th (0.79 xG)
Expected goals conceded: 20th (0.51 xG)
Interestingly Burton’s scored xG is 0.7 and conceded is 1.1 (both figures worse than ours) so you have to wonder how long the good times will last for them.
https://footystats.org/england/efl-league-one/xg |
I'd be interested to see an end of season XG table mapped against league finishes to see if it does even itself out over the course of the season. To me as an observer we are conceding few chances but they are good chances. Cheltenham could have scored from a long throw in the first 5 minutes and their two goals were from fairly close in. | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:22 - Aug 19 with 1833 views | HARRY10 |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 12:49 - Aug 19 by TractorBoyOlly |
I hate expected goals. I could be expected to go to church on Sunday doesn’t mean I will. Such a pointless stat |
Most of what are known as 'stats' are little more than meaningless gibberish 0 that serve inly to overexcite those with mild Aspergers.
A player shoots from 30 yards out having skipped past two players, the ball skips just over the cross bar. Another player skies the ball into row z from 10 yards out - they are both shots off target.
We are one down with ten men, 5 mins to go. We will try to keep possession by pssing in our own half, or one down at home with minutes to go so hoof the ball forward as much as possible. What do the possession, passes completed 'stats' tell you ?
Absolutely nothing without the context of either game.
Much as with another bit if buffoonery - the assist.
A player delivers a perfectly weighted ball into the box that the striker hits over the bar. Or a ball is launched forward, hopefully. The striker skilfully brings it down and scores from 25 yards out. One player is credited with an assist, the other isn't.
Anyone watching a game should be able to tell what happened, if they have not watched the game then idiotic numbers well tell them nothing, other than they are similarly an idiot. | | | |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:22 - Aug 19 with 1831 views | jayessess |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:15 - Aug 19 by itfcjoe |
There is another stat which is xGOT which tells more about how well a goalkeeper is doing - on that he is shown as -3.1 goals in the goals prevented stakes |
How does that one work?
My feeling on the 6 conceded so far is that he's conceded 2 that a good shop stopper is saving a lot of the time (Morecambe's 1st and Cheltenham's 1st) and the other 4 were nothing to blame him for per se, but also ones where sometimes a really good keeper does bale you out. | |
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| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:23 - Aug 19 with 1823 views | JakeITFC |
| Third lowest XG on goals against in the three games.. on 13:22 - Aug 19 by HARRY10 |
Most of what are known as 'stats' are little more than meaningless gibberish 0 that serve inly to overexcite those with mild Aspergers.
A player shoots from 30 yards out having skipped past two players, the ball skips just over the cross bar. Another player skies the ball into row z from 10 yards out - they are both shots off target.
We are one down with ten men, 5 mins to go. We will try to keep possession by pssing in our own half, or one down at home with minutes to go so hoof the ball forward as much as possible. What do the possession, passes completed 'stats' tell you ?
Absolutely nothing without the context of either game.
Much as with another bit if buffoonery - the assist.
A player delivers a perfectly weighted ball into the box that the striker hits over the bar. Or a ball is launched forward, hopefully. The striker skilfully brings it down and scores from 25 yards out. One player is credited with an assist, the other isn't.
Anyone watching a game should be able to tell what happened, if they have not watched the game then idiotic numbers well tell them nothing, other than they are similarly an idiot. |
xG literally solves the problem you are describing in your second paragraph. | | | |
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