| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass 09:50 - Dec 11 with 4999 views | artsbossbeard |
FYI, really:
Labour have put massive resources into 60 'winnable seats' around the south midlands, London suburbs, South west and metropolitan areas. They are polling extremely well in most of them.
They expect to lose some seats in Labour heartlands in the north, mainly eastern areas - areas where brexit is absolutely rooted into the working class vote, maybe between 6-10.
They think there will be big losses in the Tory vote in the South East where traditional Tory voters are more in line with the likes of Major and Heseltine and will absolutely not vote for Johnson.
The Waspi women - 3.8 million of the grey vote, that would normally vote blue. Not just them, but husbands, sons, daughters have seen their mothers suffer hardship having their finances decimated.
The 19-35 vote, they are expecting the biggest ever turnout amongst this age group (as new voter registrations have shown). This is the generation that will be affected more than any by climate and future prospects.
The published polls - most are either outliers, or are using weighted methodology and don't take into account undecided who have named one party as a preferred option - Labour are firmly ahead in the raw data.
SavantaComRes were the only pollster last time who got remotely close and they were around 3% out in 2017. they currently have a 6% gap.
in the last 24 hours, they also expect remainers aligned with the lib dems to move to Labour, when they realise it's the only chance to stop brexit.
Don't underestimate how big an issue the NHS is on the doorstep. The last 48 hours have kept it firmly front and centre |  |
| Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing. | | Poll: | Raining in IP8 - shall I get the washing in? |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:54 - Dec 11 with 1015 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:12 - Dec 11 by Lord_Lucan |
I think there is more likelihood of the reverse happening. |
I doubt there will be any impact from the weather itself unless the weather is extreme, which is unlikely
Where I think there could be an impact is in the shorter daylight hours. If so that could actually surprisingly hit the younger turnout more as the older base would be likely to vote during the day - ie. the types that would normally vote after work once they’ve had dinner etc. Again though I doubt it will make any real difference |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:56 - Dec 11 with 1006 views | Lord_Lucan |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:53 - Dec 11 by buoyant |
Yes and in addition 16, & 17 year olds and resident EU nationals |
You want 16 year olds to vote? Madness.
They're mainly clueless and are still perfecting how to w4nk |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:58 - Dec 11 with 998 views | Pinewoodblue |
Would be interesting to know how many of the target seats include a high student population. The message, to students, seems to be vote in the constituency where you vote is most likely to count.
Think we can expect a degree of electoral fraud in such seats with voting cards being hijacked in student quarters.
Labour are predicted to hold Cambridge when you would expect LibDems to come through. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:59 - Dec 11 with 992 views | GlasgowBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:53 - Dec 11 by buoyant |
Yes and in addition 16, & 17 year olds and resident EU nationals |
I want everybody who is legally entitled to vote tomorrow have every opportunity to do so, regardless of their political persuasion. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:00 - Dec 11 with 988 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:51 - Dec 11 by Darth_Koont |
As they're the demographic (not individuals many of whom have very different ideas) who appear to care least about child poverty, climate change, our economy as an isolated non-EU afterthought, xenophobic and racist outlook, the NHS and even elderly care then I'll be quite happy if they're not over-represented as normal.
We look to the past far too often in the UK and without learning lessons it seems. Minimizing that tendency or certainly not over-indulging it is much needed to navigate our future. |
They’re not over-represented, they get one vote each and the overall UK age demographics are skewed towards younger ages - 29% are aged 17-39 as opposed to 22% over 60*
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/de
If less of the younger demographic choose to vote then tough titty, unfortunately
*figures based on England and Wales, couldn’t find a reliable source that included Scotchland and N.Ireland but assume broadly in line | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:06 - Dec 11 with 966 views | buoyant |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:56 - Dec 11 by Lord_Lucan |
You want 16 year olds to vote? Madness.
They're mainly clueless and are still perfecting how to w4nk |
I popped in ASDA last night on the way home and I promise you that your summary is not exclusive to the 16/17 year old demographic. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:06 - Dec 11 with 966 views | baxterbasics |
That's what I was thinking - only Survation came close last time round. Oh and also the YouGov MRP, which predicted 312 Tory seats with 317 being the final total.
We now have both published for this election, both are saying Tory majority, though the MRP is showing it pretty tight.
The big uncertainty is the fact so many seats this time are marginals, so the 3% margin of error in the polls can make a huge difference either way. We don't know how many young'uns will turn up, or how many will vote tactically, or what the BXP effect will be.
As unlikely as it seems, I would prefer a Labour majority over a Conservative minority government. At least that way they can own the resulting disaster and the naive millenials will learn the lesson they refused to hear from their parents and grandparents. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:08 - Dec 11 with 960 views | StochesStotasBlewe |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:56 - Dec 11 by Lord_Lucan |
You want 16 year olds to vote? Madness.
They're mainly clueless and are still perfecting how to w4nk |
I’m 58 and still having problems perfecting that. |  |
| We have no village green, or a shop.
It's very, very quiet.
I can walk to the pub. |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:10 - Dec 11 with 946 views | Pinewoodblue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:56 - Dec 11 by Lord_Lucan |
You want 16 year olds to vote? Madness.
They're mainly clueless and are still perfecting how to w4nk |
Corbyn agrees with you, did he not say Shamima Begum wasn’t old enough to be responsible for her actions. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:10 - Dec 11 with 944 views | buoyant |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:59 - Dec 11 by GlasgowBlue |
I want everybody who is legally entitled to vote tomorrow have every opportunity to do so, regardless of their political persuasion. |
That doesn't include the resident, tax paying and reprocreating aforementioned. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:13 - Dec 11 with 926 views | Rocky |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:06 - Dec 11 by baxterbasics |
That's what I was thinking - only Survation came close last time round. Oh and also the YouGov MRP, which predicted 312 Tory seats with 317 being the final total.
We now have both published for this election, both are saying Tory majority, though the MRP is showing it pretty tight.
The big uncertainty is the fact so many seats this time are marginals, so the 3% margin of error in the polls can make a huge difference either way. We don't know how many young'uns will turn up, or how many will vote tactically, or what the BXP effect will be.
As unlikely as it seems, I would prefer a Labour majority over a Conservative minority government. At least that way they can own the resulting disaster and the naive millenials will learn the lesson they refused to hear from their parents and grandparents. |
Given the disaster that will be Brexit, I think it will be a good election for Labour to lose.
The Tories could be decimated in 5[?] years time. |  | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:27 - Dec 11 with 891 views | WeWereZombies |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:44 - Dec 11 by itfcjoe |
Hopefully it reduces turnout of the elderly and not the young when you see their overall voting intentions - no offence Ryorry and I hope you can make it! |
It may not be the case but you would think that anyone who was worried about the weather on polling day would have registered for a postal vote so your hope for a ballot that excludes the elderly might be frustrated to a large extent. Which should help the Liberal Democrat and Green vote... |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:29 - Dec 11 with 881 views | BigManBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:56 - Dec 11 by Lord_Lucan |
You want 16 year olds to vote? Madness.
They're mainly clueless and are still perfecting how to w4nk |
Indeed. Only married men should be allowed to vote - if I'm representative of the group then we're all experts of the craft. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:55 - Dec 11 with 838 views | GlasgowBlue |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:13 - Dec 11 by Rocky |
Given the disaster that will be Brexit, I think it will be a good election for Labour to lose.
The Tories could be decimated in 5[?] years time. |
Oh my. I remember the days when Labour aspired to form a majority to govern the country. Now they are clinging in in the hope of a hung parliament.
I dint disagree with your analysis but Mervyn King said the same about the 2010 election. 9 years later and we still have a Tory government. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:56 - Dec 11 with 834 views | Darth_Koont |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:00 - Dec 11 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
They’re not over-represented, they get one vote each and the overall UK age demographics are skewed towards younger ages - 29% are aged 17-39 as opposed to 22% over 60*
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/de
If less of the younger demographic choose to vote then tough titty, unfortunately
*figures based on England and Wales, couldn’t find a reliable source that included Scotchland and N.Ireland but assume broadly in line |
No, I believe they're over-represented in terms of turnout. While that's down to more of them turning up than a lot of younger voters (and good for them) it still doesn't mean we get governments that represent UK people's needs. FPTP just adds insult to injury.
Which all sort of confirms that people who are looking for change will be disappointed and disillusioned with our politics while people who prop up the status quo will see it as the ideal tool. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 14:01 - Dec 11 with 821 views | ZedRodgers |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 10:32 - Dec 11 by GlasgowBlue |
If Labour’s internal numbers was good then Jon Ashworth wouldn’t have been caught out saying it’s a disaster.
Zed would also be on here rallying the troops but even he seems to have given up.
Best result would be a hung parliament with the minor parties demanding the resignation of Corbyn or Johnson before doing a deal with them. |
Hello GB.
I can assure you that I've not given up on anything since I burst my Zumba outfit and decided the whole thing simply wasn't for me.
I must thank you for personifying me, Zed, as the hope of the Labour Party. It's refreshing to hear such kind words from you, so soon after you accused me of being complicit in anti-Jewish racism.
Zed is on the frontline making a difference, GB. My time is best spent there and not talking to people on a football forum who think a hung parliament with minor parties demanding resignations is a realistic outcome, let alone the best one.
I see you have a new avatar depicting Corbyn as a donkey turning a blind eye to antisemitism. Do you remember when you recently failed to challenge baxsterbasics's reply to your thread? In which he or she accused Momentum, founded by 3 Jewish people, of having its "grubby hooks into Labour". As you've failed to denounce this antisemitism which rooted itself in a safe space you created, I can only question whether your retina is capable of gauging who has and who has not turned a blind eye to antisemitism. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 14:05 - Dec 11 with 805 views | HARRY10 |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:56 - Dec 11 by Darth_Koont |
No, I believe they're over-represented in terms of turnout. While that's down to more of them turning up than a lot of younger voters (and good for them) it still doesn't mean we get governments that represent UK people's needs. FPTP just adds insult to injury.
Which all sort of confirms that people who are looking for change will be disappointed and disillusioned with our politics while people who prop up the status quo will see it as the ideal tool. |
I am stating that he was doorstepped whilst going into a preplanned speech. R is one of those silly myths that is dragged out whenever there is a perceived proble.
My previous point about hpw voters simply coalece around opposite positions has been borne out by the polls ie voters are moving either to Labour of the Tories.
PR will not change that as every decision is either for or against and so, as with the DUP, they either fall in line or not.
The real failing is lack of engagement by voters, who then blame the system that they chose to not involve themselves in. |  | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 14:32 - Dec 11 with 780 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 14:01 - Dec 11 by ZedRodgers |
Hello GB.
I can assure you that I've not given up on anything since I burst my Zumba outfit and decided the whole thing simply wasn't for me.
I must thank you for personifying me, Zed, as the hope of the Labour Party. It's refreshing to hear such kind words from you, so soon after you accused me of being complicit in anti-Jewish racism.
Zed is on the frontline making a difference, GB. My time is best spent there and not talking to people on a football forum who think a hung parliament with minor parties demanding resignations is a realistic outcome, let alone the best one.
I see you have a new avatar depicting Corbyn as a donkey turning a blind eye to antisemitism. Do you remember when you recently failed to challenge baxsterbasics's reply to your thread? In which he or she accused Momentum, founded by 3 Jewish people, of having its "grubby hooks into Labour". As you've failed to denounce this antisemitism which rooted itself in a safe space you created, I can only question whether your retina is capable of gauging who has and who has not turned a blind eye to antisemitism. |
Are you still predicting Labour to be the largest party? | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 14:46 - Dec 11 with 764 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 11:06 - Dec 11 by GaryCooper |
Yet 3% projects 41 MPs for the Scot Nats, a little over represented I feel. |
I suspect that % is much higher if you just take the Scottish population into account rather than the whole of the UK
I suspect also that the DUP in NI will have 10 or so seats with less than 1% of the UK-wide voting population |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:06 - Dec 11 with 746 views | Ryorry |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:27 - Dec 11 by WeWereZombies |
It may not be the case but you would think that anyone who was worried about the weather on polling day would have registered for a postal vote so your hope for a ballot that excludes the elderly might be frustrated to a large extent. Which should help the Liberal Democrat and Green vote... |
Also, perhaps not the case everywhere, but round here elderly or disabled people are regularly helped out by younger family members, neighbours or volunteers with a variety of things, so I'm sure if they really wanted to vote on the day, they'd be able to.
Not that that'd be much help if it snowed heavily on the day and/or we had ice forming on the roads after sunset, but that's not forecast - well not in the vast majority of constituencies anyway. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:08 - Dec 11 with 736 views | J2BLUE |
Tories out in force in IP3 (unless i've got them confused with Brexit Party). I saw the blue on their leaflets but they lost interest in me as soon as I said i've voted Labour. |  |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:10 - Dec 11 with 726 views | Ryorry |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 13:56 - Dec 11 by Darth_Koont |
No, I believe they're over-represented in terms of turnout. While that's down to more of them turning up than a lot of younger voters (and good for them) it still doesn't mean we get governments that represent UK people's needs. FPTP just adds insult to injury.
Which all sort of confirms that people who are looking for change will be disappointed and disillusioned with our politics while people who prop up the status quo will see it as the ideal tool. |
I'm sure I'll be corrected if wrong, but didn't many people (incl on here) say immediately post-Referendum 2016, that Leave winning could be put down to a huge number of 18-25s not bothering to vote? | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:12 - Dec 11 with 720 views | GaryCooper |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 12:51 - Dec 11 by Darth_Koont |
As they're the demographic (not individuals many of whom have very different ideas) who appear to care least about child poverty, climate change, our economy as an isolated non-EU afterthought, xenophobic and racist outlook, the NHS and even elderly care then I'll be quite happy if they're not over-represented as normal.
We look to the past far too often in the UK and without learning lessons it seems. Minimizing that tendency or certainly not over-indulging it is much needed to navigate our future. |
'I'll be quite happy if they're not over-represented as normal.'
Some serious brass neck from the Scottish correspondent there. |  | | |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:33 - Dec 11 with 702 views | Darth_Koont |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:12 - Dec 11 by GaryCooper |
'I'll be quite happy if they're not over-represented as normal.'
Some serious brass neck from the Scottish correspondent there. |
Funny how it wasn't an issue before when Scotland was mostly voting for UK parties.
Anyway, I never said that Scotland wasn't over-represented electorally. Still, it doesn't make a blind bit of difference in Westminster unless this election breaks the mold. | |
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| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:37 - Dec 11 with 690 views | Darth_Koont |
| A Labour canvasser reports - from Labour Top Brass on 15:10 - Dec 11 by Ryorry |
I'm sure I'll be corrected if wrong, but didn't many people (incl on here) say immediately post-Referendum 2016, that Leave winning could be put down to a huge number of 18-25s not bothering to vote? |
Indeed. Most Leavers think "it's gone too far with the EU" and we essentially need to get back to a former time.
It's a resolutely backwards step that ignores the modern world let alone the future and not a step the younger generation would take for that reason. | |
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