| Omicron numbers - I don't get it 19:12 - Dec 20 with 6959 views | Wicksy |
Case numbers are supposedly doubling ever 2 to 3 days.
I'm pretty certain the case numbers were c 50k a day well over a week ago but are still 'only' c 90k when they should be c 300k- 400k
What am I missing? |  |
| The cars in the churchyard
Were shiny and German
Distinctly at odds with
The theme of the sermon |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:14 - Dec 20 with 3936 views | J2BLUE |
As far as I know they are basing it on models and most cases go undetected especially of 75%ish of boosted people aren't having symptoms and aren't testing daily. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:15 - Dec 20 with 3919 views | GlasgowBlue |
A lot of those are delta cases. And we are testing far more.
The Omicron cases today were 8,044, compared to 12,133 yesterday. That may be down to the weekend. We’ll see tomorrow. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:16 - Dec 20 with 3906 views | Wicksy |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:14 - Dec 20 by J2BLUE |
As far as I know they are basing it on models and most cases go undetected especially of 75%ish of boosted people aren't having symptoms and aren't testing daily. |
Right - so the 90k is the 'tip of the iceberg'? | |
| The cars in the churchyard
Were shiny and German
Distinctly at odds with
The theme of the sermon |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:18 - Dec 20 with 3879 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Chances are you will. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:20 - Dec 20 with 3858 views | StokieBlue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:16 - Dec 20 by Wicksy |
Right - so the 90k is the 'tip of the iceberg'? |
Yes.
There will be far more cases that the official number. That's just people who take PCR tests. Many people don't or just do an LFT. Many others may be asymptomatic.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:23 - Dec 20 with 3828 views | GeoffSentence |
keep an eye out over the next few days to see what happens. Most of those 50K cases would have been Delta, it was ticking along at 40-50k for a while until over the last few days it jumped to 90K. Interesting that it has been flatish over the last few days at around 90K but I guess that could be the weekend effect and we could see a jump in the next few days. Unless of course people have been altering their behaviour enough to keep it in check. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:24 - Dec 20 with 3819 views | vilanovablue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:20 - Dec 20 by StokieBlue |
Yes.
There will be far more cases that the official number. That's just people who take PCR tests. Many people don't or just do an LFT. Many others may be asymptomatic.
SB |
And it's those case which remain the issue. I'd suggest cases are significantly increased beyond the numbers we are seeing in spite of enhanced testing. |  | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:26 - Dec 20 with 3786 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:24 - Dec 20 by vilanovablue |
And it's those case which remain the issue. I'd suggest cases are significantly increased beyond the numbers we are seeing in spite of enhanced testing. |
Don’t they only sequence something like 5% of positive PCR tests! |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:44 - Dec 20 with 3714 views | vilanovablue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:26 - Dec 20 by Pinewoodblue |
Don’t they only sequence something like 5% of positive PCR tests! |
I do know it was a pretty low percentage previously, I'm guess/hoping they are doing more or otherwise times maybe 10 for the actual numbers. | | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:49 - Dec 20 with 3699 views | Trequartista |
Could be weekend lag, or could be delta cases simultaneously reducing, or could be the doubling rate has slowed. Usually best to wait for a week's data to iron out the daily bumps, but last 4 days look promising. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 21:09 - Dec 20 with 3486 views | bluelagos |
See attached:
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 21:12 - Dec 20 with 3459 views | bluelagos |
Main thing you are missing is that the 50k a week ago were both Delta and Omicron. Delta has not gone away and is flat(ish).
The Omicron is the variant doubling every 2 to 3 days.
So think of your 50k as maybe 45k Delta and 5k Omicron and the recent figures makes a lot more sense as it only the Omicron cases growing at that pace atm. | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 21:31 - Dec 20 with 3372 views | Wicksy |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 21:12 - Dec 20 by bluelagos |
Main thing you are missing is that the 50k a week ago were both Delta and Omicron. Delta has not gone away and is flat(ish).
The Omicron is the variant doubling every 2 to 3 days.
So think of your 50k as maybe 45k Delta and 5k Omicron and the recent figures makes a lot more sense as it only the Omicron cases growing at that pace atm. |
Good point - thanks | |
| The cars in the churchyard
Were shiny and German
Distinctly at odds with
The theme of the sermon |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 21:44 - Dec 20 with 3315 views | bluelagos |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 21:31 - Dec 20 by Wicksy |
Good point - thanks |
No worries. Check out the ONS site if you want more detailed / accurate data. Tends to be a bit lagged but has plenty of detail for numbers nerds. | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 22:01 - Dec 20 with 3240 views | StokieBlue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:49 - Dec 20 by Trequartista |
Could be weekend lag, or could be delta cases simultaneously reducing, or could be the doubling rate has slowed. Usually best to wait for a week's data to iron out the daily bumps, but last 4 days look promising. |
In what way does it look promising?
The numbers on the weekend are usually a bit all over the place and they were still both huge numbers of cases and was today.
The doubling rate is estimated at 1.8 days at the moment (also see Elders post).
I know you said the other day you tend to look for optimistic points otherwise it makes you anxious but there needs to be some balance here. Not many experts would agree it looks promising at the moment I don't think.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 22:14 - Dec 20 with 3167 views | Cotty |
The number of OMICRON cases is doubling every 2-3 days, not TOTAL cases. You’re welcome. |  | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 22:15 - Dec 20 with 3142 views | chrismakin |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 22:01 - Dec 20 by StokieBlue |
In what way does it look promising?
The numbers on the weekend are usually a bit all over the place and they were still both huge numbers of cases and was today.
The doubling rate is estimated at 1.8 days at the moment (also see Elders post).
I know you said the other day you tend to look for optimistic points otherwise it makes you anxious but there needs to be some balance here. Not many experts would agree it looks promising at the moment I don't think.
SB |
It'll probably hit 100k for the first time tomorrow
Saw earlier that figures are those reported today. Not positive cases today. So with the weekend lag you can expect a hefty increase tomorrow. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 22:25 - Dec 20 with 3094 views | Trequartista |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 22:01 - Dec 20 by StokieBlue |
In what way does it look promising?
The numbers on the weekend are usually a bit all over the place and they were still both huge numbers of cases and was today.
The doubling rate is estimated at 1.8 days at the moment (also see Elders post).
I know you said the other day you tend to look for optimistic points otherwise it makes you anxious but there needs to be some balance here. Not many experts would agree it looks promising at the moment I don't think.
SB |
In that the cases haven't been doubling every 2 days in the last 4 days, but have stayed flat. I've already said we have to wait a week because of bumps in the data, hence i put promising rather than made any great claim.
More important are the hospitalisations. I read (in the FT John Burn-Murdoch) that the London hospitalisation rise a few days ago included a staggering 66% incidental covid cases e.g. if you break your arm and go to a&e and then test positive in hospital and you are asymptomatic, you are counted as a covid hospitalisation! It seems to me the figures are being artificially inflated by 200%. [Post edited 20 Dec 2021 22:26]
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:04 - Dec 20 with 2982 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 22:25 - Dec 20 by Trequartista |
In that the cases haven't been doubling every 2 days in the last 4 days, but have stayed flat. I've already said we have to wait a week because of bumps in the data, hence i put promising rather than made any great claim.
More important are the hospitalisations. I read (in the FT John Burn-Murdoch) that the London hospitalisation rise a few days ago included a staggering 66% incidental covid cases e.g. if you break your arm and go to a&e and then test positive in hospital and you are asymptomatic, you are counted as a covid hospitalisation! It seems to me the figures are being artificially inflated by 200%. [Post edited 20 Dec 2021 22:26]
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You feel that figures are being artificially inflated by 200% then. |  | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:10 - Dec 20 with 2957 views | Ely_Blue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 22:15 - Dec 20 by chrismakin |
It'll probably hit 100k for the first time tomorrow
Saw earlier that figures are those reported today. Not positive cases today. So with the weekend lag you can expect a hefty increase tomorrow. |
What will your downvotes on your post from earlier? |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:14 - Dec 20 with 2933 views | chrismakin |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:10 - Dec 20 by Ely_Blue |
What will your downvotes on your post from earlier? |
Don't know. I don't really care about footy stuff when I'm discussing covid. | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:16 - Dec 20 with 2938 views | Ely_Blue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:14 - Dec 20 by chrismakin |
Don't know. I don't really care about footy stuff when I'm discussing covid. |
You don’t really care about footie stuff when you’re posting about footie either 😂😂 | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:30 - Dec 20 with 2909 views | Trequartista |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:04 - Dec 20 by Eireannach_gorm |
You feel that figures are being artificially inflated by 200% then. |
The figures that were given a few days ago for London, yes.
https://www.ft.com/content/c14173c9-1ab7-4386-aeae-70cdac666503
"Of the 169 additional coronavirus-positive patients in hospital, 111 were not being treated primarily for Covid and only incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions, suggesting the figures could overstate the level of additional pressure on the NHS"
That's 66%, so the figures are getting on for just under 200% higher. [Post edited 20 Dec 2021 23:30]
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:34 - Dec 20 with 2886 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:30 - Dec 20 by Trequartista |
The figures that were given a few days ago for London, yes.
https://www.ft.com/content/c14173c9-1ab7-4386-aeae-70cdac666503
"Of the 169 additional coronavirus-positive patients in hospital, 111 were not being treated primarily for Covid and only incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions, suggesting the figures could overstate the level of additional pressure on the NHS"
That's 66%, so the figures are getting on for just under 200% higher. [Post edited 20 Dec 2021 23:30]
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7 day figure for new cases is 60% higher than 7 days ago.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:34 - Dec 20 with 2888 views | Cotty |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:30 - Dec 20 by Trequartista |
The figures that were given a few days ago for London, yes.
https://www.ft.com/content/c14173c9-1ab7-4386-aeae-70cdac666503
"Of the 169 additional coronavirus-positive patients in hospital, 111 were not being treated primarily for Covid and only incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions, suggesting the figures could overstate the level of additional pressure on the NHS"
That's 66%, so the figures are getting on for just under 200% higher. [Post edited 20 Dec 2021 23:30]
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Every methodology is flawed. But if it’s consistent, does it really matter? This is the same method they were using when there were a handful of cases each day. Where were your complaints about methodology then? This is straw clutching of the highest order… | | | |
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