Forum | Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... by itfcjoe

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... 15:37 - Aug 31 with 15081 views

....after chasing George Hirst for months, there's been a fair bit of talk about how Macauley Bonne would be a big downgrade, but now seems serious interest judging from both Phil and the EADT guys in a player with 74 minutes of league football under his belt.

Hopefully by 11pm on Thursday all will have fallen into place - but think it would be hugely risky putting all eggs in the Freddie Ladapo basket as the only number 9 with any proven ability to lead the line in such a pivotal season

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 22:17 - Aug 31 with 2014 views

pointofblue

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 22:00 - Aug 31 by PhilTWTD
Am guessing that's one of the targets.

Thanks - intrigued to see who we get. Hope it's a proven transfer rather than a Premier League academy player on loan.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 22:24 - Aug 31 with 1980 views

jayessess

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 22:00 - Aug 31 by PhilTWTD
Am guessing that's one of the targets.

Morgan Rogers is presumably going somewhere tomorrow...

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 23:12 - Aug 31 with 1856 views

Guthrum

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 16:04 - Aug 31 by itfcjoe
I thought TJJ looked really good there, but fact he's gone back to 10 role both on Saturday and last night seems to suggest he's not seen as a player to do that or seen as more valuable elsewhere (coupled with the Hirst chase)

Maybe seen as dual role? At least that doesn't mean he's twiddling his thumbs when Ladapo is up top.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 23:17 - Aug 31 with 1845 views

PhilTWTD

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 22:24 - Aug 31 by jayessess
Morgan Rogers is presumably going somewhere tomorrow...

Wasn't one we were after as of a couple of weeks ago, but these things can change. Think he's definitely been on the radar at some point though.

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 23:45 - Aug 31 with 1746 views

ibbleobble

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 18:28 - Aug 31 by jayessess
Rotherham last season, Hull the season before, Wycombe, Rotherham and Coventry had no-one on course to do it in the Covid season, Barnsley in 2018-19, Wigan, Blackburn and Rotherham in 2017-18, Millwall and Bolton in 2016-17 In the past 5 completed seasons, 8 of the 15 clubs that were promoted didn't have a 20-goal striker. [Post edited 31 Aug 2022 18:30]

What you’ve presented is rather skewed and needs a bigger sample. From the last 10
seasons, these are the promoted clubs and their top scorers. 30 promoted sides (27 is a fairer reflection given the short season due to Covid). Of that 27, 14 clubs had players who hit 20 goals + and another 7 clubs had strikers who hit 18+.

That’s pretty conclusive In my view. There are exceptions but they are that, exceptions:

(These might flex a little as it’s late and I’ve only used one source).

12/13
Charlton - Wright-Phillips 22
Sheff Wed - Madine 18
Huddersfield - Rhodes 35

13/14
Wolves - Dicko 18
Brentford - Donaldson 17
Rotherham - Agard 21

14/15
Bristol City - Willbraham 18
MK Dons - Grigg 20
PNE - Garner 25

15/16
Wigan - Grigg 25
Burton - Akins 12
Barnsley - Winnal 21

16/17
Sheff Utd - Sharp 30
Bolton - Madine 16?
Millwall - Gregory 17

17/18
Wigan - Grigg 18
Blackburn - Dack 19
Rotherham - Moore 13

18/19
Luton - Collins 25
Barnsley - Moore 17
Charlton - Taylor 21

19/20 - short season
Coventry - Godden 14
Wycombe - Akinfenwa 10
Rotherham - Ladapo 14

20/21
Hull - Wilks 19
Peterborough - Clarke Harris 31
Blackpool - Yates 20

21/22
Sunderland - Stewart 24
Wigan - Keane 26
Rotherham - Smith 18

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 01:58 - Sep 1 with 1688 views

SaigonTractor

I think it was Stuart Watson last season who said he worried we could be a bit "too ambitious" with transfer targets sometimes, and we end up wasting a lot of time.

Last season it was Sonny Bradley, this season it's George Hirst. Hopefully we have some backups in place.

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 05:51 - Sep 1 with 1623 views

Darth_Koont

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 23:45 - Aug 31 by ibbleobble

That just shows me that it doesn’t really matter whether we have a single player who scores over 20 goals or not.

There are clearly other more important factors behind winning promotion. The main one being finishing the season with more points than other teams.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 06:42 - Sep 1 with 1575 views

ibbleobble

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 05:51 - Sep 1 by Darth_Koont
That just shows me that it doesn’t really matter whether we have a single player who scores over 20 goals or not. There are clearly other more important factors behind winning promotion. The main one being finishing the season with more points than other teams.

A strange take. What it shows me is that 77% of teams who have been promoted have had a striker who has scored 18 goals + to get the required points needed alleviating the burden on other team members.

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 06:47 - Sep 1 with 1566 views

ArnieM

OP: careful, you’ll be accused of making something that it isn’t !

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 06:54 - Sep 1 with 1550 views

BlueBoots

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 23:12 - Aug 31 by Guthrum
Maybe seen as dual role? At least that doesn't mean he's twiddling his thumbs when Ladapo is up top.

Not just TJJ, but Jackson and Chaplin can both play as a 9 as well as a 10; we have our 6 regular players rotating in those 3 attacking roles, but the way we utilise our subs we rely on all of them being fit or available; our cover for those at the moment is probably Edwards, and then we'd be dipping into our youth team.

Having shipped out El Miz and Harper on loan, think it would be good to get another CM through the door. Leaving ourselves a bit light with Evans, Morsy and Ball - any of those out, and we're looking at Aluko filling in at a push, or Humphreys; think he showed a couple of nights ago he's got the potential to step up (and could play as a CM or a 10), but a big ask to throw him to a run of starts if we have players out.

If we can sign another CM & 9 or 10, think we could easily ride out anything but a major injury crisis.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:05 - Sep 1 with 1529 views

Darth_Koont

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 06:42 - Sep 1 by ibbleobble
A strange take. What it shows me is that 77% of teams who have been promoted have had a striker who has scored 18 goals + to get the required points needed alleviating the burden on other team members.

But a lot of teams rely on a couple of players for at least half their goals. That’s how the whole team is set up.

McKenna’s team and our whole approach is different. And the striker’s role is as much about creating space and opportunities for others as being a goal-scoring threat in their own right. As a result, I’d say we’ll probably have 4 or 5 players in double figures by the end of the season. Maybe even as many as half-a-dozen given rotation and 5 subs.

Between them Ladapo, John-Jules, Jackson, Burns, Chaplin, Harness and Morsy should score over 50 goals this season. And I think that’s a pretty conservative estimate for this group even allowing for injury/loss of form.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:11 - Sep 1 with 1508 views

DJR

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 19:37 - Aug 31 by BlueBoots
Was 20 goal striker, now 30 goal striker; haven't you heard about the lastest inflation figures?

20 goal striker? 30 goal striker? I won't be happy unless we get a 50 goal striker.

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:14 - Sep 1 with 1480 views

ibbleobble

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:05 - Sep 1 by Darth_Koont

4 or 5 players on double figures!? Blimey. I know everyone’s getting carried away with the good start to the season but that’s a stretch! Has that ever happened at Town? If someone could check the archives that’d be grand…

[Post edited 1 Sep 2022 7:16]

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:31 - Sep 1 with 1423 views

BigCommon

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 06:42 - Sep 1 by ibbleobble
A strange take. What it shows me is that 77% of teams who have been promoted have had a striker who has scored 18 goals + to get the required points needed alleviating the burden on other team members.

A farer reflection, would be the total number of goals scored by promoted teams. Rather than their top scorers..IMO.
Atm, we are tracking 92 league goals for the season.... Is 92 Goals enough do you think?
In KM's words... "I don't care who gets the goals".
The role of a forward in our team, is just as much a "foil" for other players in support. Quite evident by the amount of goals we score from midfield..
With that in mind. I think we'll struggle to attract an out and out goal scorer. They are only going to get 2 maybe 3 chances tops per game. Anyone who can convert a goal from every 3 chances presented. Is probably out of our budget. And could command Champioship football, at least.
I think the kind of player we are looking for up front. Is someone who is prepared to work their socks of, for maybe 1 goal in 4-5 games. Who can stay on side and hold up and link up.. It's a tough gig, for a player that most will judge on their goals scored.. And not really a conventional strikers role, imo.. They need more to their game, than prodding the ball in from 10 yards. And they need a certain attitude, as they will get scapegoated at times, for goals per game ratio..
Bonne could probably fill the role, or as back up to Ladapo if he sorts out the off sides. But there could be some baggage in tow imo..
Have a feeling we might see a loan come in. If we miss out on a genuine target. Then perhaps try again in Januaty.. If needed.

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:38 - Sep 1 with 1403 views

BlueBoots

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:14 - Sep 1 by ibbleobble
4 or 5 players on double figures!? Blimey. I know everyone’s getting carried away with the good start to the season but that’s a stretch! Has that ever happened at Town? If someone could check the archives that’d be grand… [Post edited 1 Sep 2022 7:16]

To be fair, we haven't played this kind of system with these type of players before! I wouldn't be surprised if any of Ladapo, Jackson, TJJ, Harness, Chaplin and Morsy hit double figures this season, another 5-10 goals from Burns / Davis, and hopefully the centre-backs will chip in with a few from set pieces.

And to answer your question about dipping into the archives, best goalscoring year I can remember for Town was 04/05 under Royle (20 for Bent, 19 for Kuqi, and 13 for Miller), but I'm sure other fans have a better memory than me...

EDIT: Previous season (03/04) we had 4 players on double figures...Bent, Kuqi, Miller and Pablo

[Post edited 1 Sep 2022 7:45]

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:38 - Sep 1 with 1401 views

Vic

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 23:45 - Aug 31 by ibbleobble

What you figures show is that however you cut it we haven’t scored enough goals in the past.

It stands to reason that if we score more goals we’ll have a few individuals that will have more to thier names at the end of the season. So for me the question is, do we have the players that can reasonably be expected to get those goals?

On paper, yes we do. We have a strong set of forwards. But it’s clear that KM thinks we still need another player T whose main job and track record is scoring goals. So there isn’t really an argument to make on this.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:39 - Sep 1 with 1391 views

Darth_Koont

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:14 - Sep 1 by ibbleobble
4 or 5 players on double figures!? Blimey. I know everyone’s getting carried away with the good start to the season but that’s a stretch! Has that ever happened at Town? If someone could check the archives that’d be grand… [Post edited 1 Sep 2022 7:16]

Probably not.

But in our history we’ve never been so clearly set up as such an all-round attacking team, still very solid defensively too, and backed up by one of the very best overall squads in the league. A third-tier league that has more than its share of much poorer teams.

It’s unique for us. Even Robson’s glory side and Burley’s Prem surprise package had to come from much further behind and ultimately had to defy expectation.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:46 - Sep 1 with 1359 views

ibbleobble

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:38 - Sep 1 by Vic

Why have we got a stronger set of forwards? I’d argue we’re weaker up front than we were last season. To Joe’s point and the point others have made, if KM thinks we need a striker with a track record of scoring, why are we reportedly in for a prospect from Sheff Utd now the Hirst signing has failed?

If Chaplin is out for the foreseeable and the worst happens and Ladapo gets injured, we have prospects and Jackson. The tail end of last season we struggled to score. We’re need depth.

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 08:28 - Sep 1 with 1265 views

Darth_Koont

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 07:46 - Sep 1 by ibbleobble

Our eventual first-choice striker last season was Jackson before his injury. Now he’s behind Ladapo and TJJ for the starting spot.

So even if no-one else comes in we’re stronger than last year because we have three strikers who suit McKenna’s system rather than just one (and a question mark over Bonne).

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 08:45 - Sep 1 with 1217 views

jayessess

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 23:45 - Aug 31 by ibbleobble

Always makes me laugh when you present a fairly straightforward statistic, exactly as requested, but suddenly it's "skewed" and the goal posts need to move.

A 20-goal striker becomes an 18-goal striker (happy days, Ladapo's officially an 18-goal striker! He did that in 2018-19!).

5 seasons becomes 10 (fine, I love a bigger sample size!) and 2011-12 magically becomes 2012-13!
(2012-13 is actually:
Doncaster - Paynter 13
Bournemouth - Pitman 19
Yeovil - Hayter 14
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9313_Football_League_One)

So, it's actually 12 in 27 seasons for 20-goal strikers and 6 more that hit 18.

So, not a majority of promoted sides in the past 10 seasons either (it's 14 in 30 for the last 10 fully completed ones if you prefer that).

All I'd conclude from these stats is that most promoted sides have somebody score a decent number of goals for them. Not that they need the best striker in the league, not that they need a 1 goal in 2 striker, just someone who notches at roughly the rate Kayden Jackson and Freddie Ladapo (there he is again!) did in 2019-20.

I'd have other caveats on that - football is different tactically in 2022 and 2012, the goal contributions of wide forwards are becoming more important. Will Keane was playing as a 10 last season, Malik Wilks played as wide forward in 2020-21, as did Ladapo in 2019-20.

I'd also wonder about cause and correlation. Did these teams get promoted because they had a goalscorer, or did they have a goalscorer because they were excellent, promotion-worthy teams? Michael Smith had never cracked more than 13 goals in a season before last year. Ross Stewart's best was 12 in the Scottish 3rd tier. Will Keane's previous best was 10.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 09:33 - Sep 1 with 1144 views

Darth_Koont

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 08:45 - Sep 1 by jayessess

Re: cause and correlation, I was thinking that the fabled “we need a 20-goal striker to get promotion” is getting cause and effect the wrong way around.

The principle “cause” of promotion is getting more points than other teams. With three points for a win, that is down to teams winning as many games as they lose or draw but winning games 2-0 or 5-3 makes no difference here. But teams with a better goal difference generally win more. And scoring more goals generally helps with that. Teams that score more goals will then more likely have individual players who become top scorers in the league.

But if we turn it around and make the 20-goal striker the cause, it’s a much weaker connection to the desired “effect” of promotion. If you have a player who scores a lot of goals that’s great but doesn’t even mean the team scores more in total. Or that the goal difference will be enough. Or that the team will win more than they lose or draw. That’s all about the team as a whole that 1 player can certainly contribute to but can’t carry on their own.

Ultimately, we all know that it’s a team that gets promoted not a goal-scorer and his support crew. However, we still tend to misattribute that team success to individuals and certainly strikers a little too much maybe because it's a far simpler and clearer narrative than looking at the team as a whole.

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Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 11:23 - Sep 1 with 1040 views

The_Flashing_Smile

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 06:42 - Sep 1 by ibbleobble
A strange take. What it shows me is that 77% of teams who have been promoted have had a striker who has scored 18 goals + to get the required points needed alleviating the burden on other team members.

LOL, the best way to score goals is keep moving the goalposts!

Trust the process. Trust Phil.

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 20:40 - Sep 1 with 880 views

N2_Blue

Are you feeling a bit better now?

We have a manager who knows what we are doing, need to have a bit more trust.

If you chase someone (Hirst) you don't draw attention to other players you are interested in, in case the target you are chasing falls through. Excellent to do these two bits of business. Bonne could have just been a smokescreen

Of course the jury is out on how they will do but personally i'm very pleased with the two players, think they will do well and really make the squad competitive and give us good cover.

The club actually runs itself like a proper football club now.

Poll:

Is it now time to sack Paul Cook?

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 20:41 - Sep 1 with 880 views

xrayspecs

This did not age well.

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 20:42 - Sep 1 with 861 views

FrimleyBlue

Have to say a bit concerned with how the end of the window is looking..... on 20:40 - Sep 1 by N2_Blue

Also, it sometimes pays to wait until the final day, you go in with an offer 2 weeks ago, the club has time to come back with a counter, do it last day, you remove that potential due to the deadline, sometimes you pay over the odds, but sometimes you pay what YOU want to pay and the selling club sell because it's more than they're going to make after today.

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