| Current xG graph 16:22 - Jan 23 with 3945 views | ArnieM |
This has been borrowed from Tractor-Boys forum poster…I don’t think he’ll mind me post8n* it on here. And I hope TWTD don’t either… makes interesting reading.
Just wanted to share this, it's the current xG graph for league 1 (xG for minus xG against). xG being expected goals, it's the best metric to analyse the amount and quality of chances a team has produced. It shows how dominant Ipswich have been this year, Town are at the top of the for and against charts, by a decent amount. I think it really backs up how we have really wasted chances, but also, have not been anywhere near clinical enough at the back.
I think that is why the bookies still back us, and think that is why McKenna has brought in two new strikers. However I think he is wary of making changes at the back, though I think it's the bigger issue.
I also think it shows that the team have not necessarily been playing poorly or playing the wrong style. They have had the most chances to score out of any team in the league by same way and have failed to convert enough. They have also had the least chances against them, but have conceded too many times when they shouldn't have.
Tippy tappy gives you extra possession, which you could argue limits the other team's time on the ball and opportunities to score. On the flip side you could say that it is slower to move the ball forward, allowing opposition teams a chance to organise at the back better, and also overloads their half, giving them a better chance of counter attacking football, which is usually more fruitful considering the extra space and defensive disorganisation it often creates.
Hope this link to the image works…
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| Current xG graph on 16:28 - Jan 23 with 3347 views | NthQldITFC |
This is why we have all got to try to relax a bit.
xG is not a perfect metric of how good your team is, but it's about the best there is.
We have a newly well-organised club which is developing a squad, ethos and depth suited to challenge in the Championship.
There are a few problems still to be ironed out.
We will get there.
Relax. |  |
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| Current xG graph on 16:34 - Jan 23 with 3292 views | itfcjoe |
These were good from @ITFCAnalytics
Basically shows that our xG scored, and conceded is of title winning form (and obviously or xG goal difference is as well), but that we aren't taking the chances we should be, plus our conceding more than we should be.
We just need to regress back to the mean quickly and start over performing where it matters opposed to underperforming.
We need to take our chances better; and our keeper needs to make more saves - if that happens most teams in this league can't touch us.....but we've got a big points difference to overhaul now
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| Current xG graph on 16:44 - Jan 23 with 3207 views | homer_123 |
Small point of order: we don't play tippy tappy football at all. |  |
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| Current xG graph on 16:48 - Jan 23 with 3189 views | homer_123 |
| Current xG graph on 16:34 - Jan 23 by itfcjoe |
These were good from @ITFCAnalytics
Basically shows that our xG scored, and conceded is of title winning form (and obviously or xG goal difference is as well), but that we aren't taking the chances we should be, plus our conceding more than we should be.
We just need to regress back to the mean quickly and start over performing where it matters opposed to underperforming.
We need to take our chances better; and our keeper needs to make more saves - if that happens most teams in this league can't touch us.....but we've got a big points difference to overhaul now
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You could argue that merely being less profligate in front of goal would do the job as we create more than enough chances to win games easily.
I'm not saying that being a bit more mean to the opposition wouldn't be a bad thing. | |
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| Current xG graph on 17:20 - Jan 23 with 3065 views | bobbyramsey |
Quite damning in a way as you surely can’t blame this consistent failure at both ends of the pitch on bad luck alone.
Or can you?
And what makes us think that things will improve? [Post edited 23 Jan 2023 17:22]
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| Current xG graph on 17:23 - Jan 23 with 3036 views | Plums |
| Current xG graph on 17:20 - Jan 23 by bobbyramsey |
Quite damning in a way as you surely can’t blame this consistent failure at both ends of the pitch on bad luck alone.
Or can you?
And what makes us think that things will improve? [Post edited 23 Jan 2023 17:22]
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Assuming 'luck' doesn't exist, what would you put it down to? |  |
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| Current xG graph on 17:31 - Jan 23 with 2958 views | HighgateBlue |
| Current xG graph on 16:34 - Jan 23 by itfcjoe |
These were good from @ITFCAnalytics
Basically shows that our xG scored, and conceded is of title winning form (and obviously or xG goal difference is as well), but that we aren't taking the chances we should be, plus our conceding more than we should be.
We just need to regress back to the mean quickly and start over performing where it matters opposed to underperforming.
We need to take our chances better; and our keeper needs to make more saves - if that happens most teams in this league can't touch us.....but we've got a big points difference to overhaul now
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The stats have been saying this for quite some weeks, but many just keep saying "but we've scored the most goals" as if failing to beat the likes of Cheltenham with 15 corners to zero wasn't a wake up call. And those corners from Davis were fantastic as well.
To be fair to McKenna, he wasn't one of the "we don't need a striker" brigade. Although he sees qualities in the likes of Jackson and Ladapo that not all of us do (and he obviously knows a zillion percent more than me and everyone else on here), he was clear that new blood up front was necessary, and hence brought in Hirst and Broadhead. We are mid table at finishing, and we are mid table at keeping out opposition chances once they're created. McKenna knows the issue, and I have as much confidence in him to sort it as it is reasonable to have. |  | | |
| Current xG graph on 17:41 - Jan 23 with 2889 views | SamWhiteUK |
I have no idea how to read that graph. That's the wrong type of chart. Can anyone explain to me the x-axis, or why it's a line graph? |  | | |
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| Current xG graph on 17:42 - Jan 23 with 2884 views | bobbyramsey |
| Current xG graph on 17:23 - Jan 23 by Plums |
Assuming 'luck' doesn't exist, what would you put it down to? |
I’m assuming there maybe one or two changes over the coming games so let’s see what difference the new additions make…. | | | |
| Current xG graph on 17:50 - Jan 23 with 2860 views | Dubtractor |
| Current xG graph on 17:41 - Jan 23 by SamWhiteUK |
I have no idea how to read that graph. That's the wrong type of chart. Can anyone explain to me the x-axis, or why it's a line graph? |
Haha. I'm so glad someone else beat me to this, makes me look like slightly less of a pedantic c@nt.
Should def be a bar chart though - I think the x axis represents each team in the division. |  |
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| Current xG graph on 19:33 - Jan 23 with 2690 views | NthQldITFC |
| Current xG graph on 17:31 - Jan 23 by HighgateBlue |
The stats have been saying this for quite some weeks, but many just keep saying "but we've scored the most goals" as if failing to beat the likes of Cheltenham with 15 corners to zero wasn't a wake up call. And those corners from Davis were fantastic as well.
To be fair to McKenna, he wasn't one of the "we don't need a striker" brigade. Although he sees qualities in the likes of Jackson and Ladapo that not all of us do (and he obviously knows a zillion percent more than me and everyone else on here), he was clear that new blood up front was necessary, and hence brought in Hirst and Broadhead. We are mid table at finishing, and we are mid table at keeping out opposition chances once they're created. McKenna knows the issue, and I have as much confidence in him to sort it as it is reasonable to have. |
I'm quite convinced that we're going to start scoring a lot of goals now. I think Broadhead, Hirst and Chappers will lead the way, but I think that will take a fair bit of the current pressure off the rest of team as well, and the goals will really flow to reflect the xG.
Hopefully things balance out a bit on the defensive xG as well, and I think Clarke's volume and perhaps the return of Edmundson may help but if we're winning 3-2 instead of 3-1, that's okay by me. | |
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| Current xG graph on 19:51 - Jan 23 with 2642 views | GavTWTD |
How do you work out xG? Various formulae I've seen have been pretty complex. |  |
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| Current xG graph on 20:19 - Jan 23 with 2555 views | Trequartista |
| Current xG graph on 19:51 - Jan 23 by GavTWTD |
How do you work out xG? Various formulae I've seen have been pretty complex. |
All goals - unexpected goals = expected goals |  |
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| Current xG graph on 20:28 - Jan 23 with 2545 views | itfcjoe |
| Current xG graph on 19:51 - Jan 23 by GavTWTD |
How do you work out xG? Various formulae I've seen have been pretty complex. |
It's basically shot location, shot type, assist type - plus some models will include position of goalkeepers/defenders etc.
Then there has to be more work done around multiple chances in one attack - i.e. if a penalty is saved and the rebound is scored that has to top out at 1 and this is done using formula which isn't overly complicated | |
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| Current xG graph on 20:32 - Jan 23 with 2521 views | Kropotkin123 |
I replied to Herb that xG was nonsense, which was the wrong choice of words. More that there are clear and identifiable failings that are evident beyond the xG metrics. As you say, the defense is the biggest concern.
What I think they do demonstrate, which Herb also mentions, is that we haven't been "found out" and any talk of getting rid of McKenna is doing a massive disservice to the positives he has made. |  |
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| Current xG graph on 22:52 - Jan 23 with 2265 views | BondiBlue |
| Current xG graph on 17:23 - Jan 23 by Plums |
Assuming 'luck' doesn't exist, what would you put it down to? |
Not doing enough finishing practice in training. [Post edited 23 Jan 2023 22:55]
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| Current xG graph on 08:05 - Jan 24 with 1958 views | Herbivore |
| Current xG graph on 17:41 - Jan 23 by SamWhiteUK |
I have no idea how to read that graph. That's the wrong type of chart. Can anyone explain to me the x-axis, or why it's a line graph? |
The x axis is number of games isn't it? It's tracking xG over the course of the season to date. Agree a bar chart would work better though. |  |
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| Current xG graph on 08:11 - Jan 24 with 1926 views | RobTheMonk |
Is this a posh way of saying we need to score more and concede less? |  | | |
| Current xG graph on 08:41 - Jan 24 with 1867 views | bobbyramsey |
| Current xG graph on 08:11 - Jan 24 by RobTheMonk |
Is this a posh way of saying we need to score more and concede less? |
Yes Rob, something that many of us have known for months…..;) | | | |
| Current xG graph on 13:48 - Jan 24 with 1643 views | King_ding_a_lin_g |
| Current xG graph on 08:05 - Jan 24 by Herbivore |
The x axis is number of games isn't it? It's tracking xG over the course of the season to date. Agree a bar chart would work better though. |
Wouldn't that just be a flat line? [Post edited 24 Jan 2023 13:49]
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| Current xG graph on 14:33 - Jan 24 with 1564 views | Herbivore |
| Current xG graph on 13:48 - Jan 24 by King_ding_a_lin_g |
Wouldn't that just be a flat line? [Post edited 24 Jan 2023 13:49]
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I'm no mathematician, but doesn't the line move up and down in relation to the y axis? | |
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