Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Forum index | Previous Thread | Next thread
Current xG graph 16:22 - Jan 23 with 3943 viewsArnieM

This has been borrowed from Tractor-Boys forum poster…I don’t think he’ll mind me post8n* it on here. And I hope TWTD don’t either… makes interesting reading.


Just wanted to share this, it's the current xG graph for league 1 (xG for minus xG against). xG being expected goals, it's the best metric to analyse the amount and quality of chances a team has produced. It shows how dominant Ipswich have been this year, Town are at the top of the for and against charts, by a decent amount. I think it really backs up how we have really wasted chances, but also, have not been anywhere near clinical enough at the back.

I think that is why the bookies still back us, and think that is why McKenna has brought in two new strikers. However I think he is wary of making changes at the back, though I think it's the bigger issue.

I also think it shows that the team have not necessarily been playing poorly or playing the wrong style. They have had the most chances to score out of any team in the league by same way and have failed to convert enough. They have also had the least chances against them, but have conceded too many times when they shouldn't have.

Tippy tappy gives you extra possession, which you could argue limits the other team's time on the ball and opportunities to score. On the flip side you could say that it is slower to move the ball forward, allowing opposition teams a chance to organise at the back better, and also overloads their half, giving them a better chance of counter attacking football, which is usually more fruitful considering the extra space and defensive disorganisation it often creates.


Hope this link to the image works…




Poll: Would this current Town team beat the current narwich team

1
Current xG graph on 16:28 - Jan 23 with 3345 viewsNthQldITFC

This is why we have all got to try to relax a bit.

xG is not a perfect metric of how good your team is, but it's about the best there is.

We have a newly well-organised club which is developing a squad, ethos and depth suited to challenge in the Championship.

There are a few problems still to be ironed out.

We will get there.

Relax.

⚔ Long live the Duke of Punuar ⚔
Poll: What Olympic sport/group are you most 'into'?

10
Current xG graph on 16:34 - Jan 23 with 3290 viewsitfcjoe

These were good from @ITFCAnalytics

Basically shows that our xG scored, and conceded is of title winning form (and obviously or xG goal difference is as well), but that we aren't taking the chances we should be, plus our conceding more than we should be.

We just need to regress back to the mean quickly and start over performing where it matters opposed to underperforming.

We need to take our chances better; and our keeper needs to make more saves - if that happens most teams in this league can't touch us.....but we've got a big points difference to overhaul now


Poll: Club vs country? What would you choose
Blog: What is Going on With the Academy at Ipswich Town?

3
Current xG graph on 16:44 - Jan 23 with 3205 viewshomer_123

Small point of order: we don't play tippy tappy football at all.

Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Poll: As things stand, how confident are you we will get promoted this season?

3
Current xG graph on 16:48 - Jan 23 with 3187 viewshomer_123

Current xG graph on 16:34 - Jan 23 by itfcjoe

These were good from @ITFCAnalytics

Basically shows that our xG scored, and conceded is of title winning form (and obviously or xG goal difference is as well), but that we aren't taking the chances we should be, plus our conceding more than we should be.

We just need to regress back to the mean quickly and start over performing where it matters opposed to underperforming.

We need to take our chances better; and our keeper needs to make more saves - if that happens most teams in this league can't touch us.....but we've got a big points difference to overhaul now



You could argue that merely being less profligate in front of goal would do the job as we create more than enough chances to win games easily.

I'm not saying that being a bit more mean to the opposition wouldn't be a bad thing.

Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Poll: As things stand, how confident are you we will get promoted this season?

2
Current xG graph on 17:20 - Jan 23 with 3063 viewsbobbyramsey

Quite damning in a way as you surely can’t blame this consistent failure at both ends of the pitch on bad luck alone.

Or can you?

And what makes us think that things will improve?
[Post edited 23 Jan 2023 17:22]
0
Current xG graph on 17:23 - Jan 23 with 3034 viewsPlums

Current xG graph on 17:20 - Jan 23 by bobbyramsey

Quite damning in a way as you surely can’t blame this consistent failure at both ends of the pitch on bad luck alone.

Or can you?

And what makes us think that things will improve?
[Post edited 23 Jan 2023 17:22]


Assuming 'luck' doesn't exist, what would you put it down to?

It's 106 miles to Portman Road, we've got a full tank of gas, half a round of Port Salut, it's dark... and we're wearing blue tinted sunglasses.
Poll: Which recent triallist should we have signed?

0
Current xG graph on 17:31 - Jan 23 with 2956 viewsHighgateBlue

Current xG graph on 16:34 - Jan 23 by itfcjoe

These were good from @ITFCAnalytics

Basically shows that our xG scored, and conceded is of title winning form (and obviously or xG goal difference is as well), but that we aren't taking the chances we should be, plus our conceding more than we should be.

We just need to regress back to the mean quickly and start over performing where it matters opposed to underperforming.

We need to take our chances better; and our keeper needs to make more saves - if that happens most teams in this league can't touch us.....but we've got a big points difference to overhaul now



The stats have been saying this for quite some weeks, but many just keep saying "but we've scored the most goals" as if failing to beat the likes of Cheltenham with 15 corners to zero wasn't a wake up call. And those corners from Davis were fantastic as well.

To be fair to McKenna, he wasn't one of the "we don't need a striker" brigade. Although he sees qualities in the likes of Jackson and Ladapo that not all of us do (and he obviously knows a zillion percent more than me and everyone else on here), he was clear that new blood up front was necessary, and hence brought in Hirst and Broadhead. We are mid table at finishing, and we are mid table at keeping out opposition chances once they're created. McKenna knows the issue, and I have as much confidence in him to sort it as it is reasonable to have.
1
Current xG graph on 17:41 - Jan 23 with 2887 viewsSamWhiteUK

I have no idea how to read that graph. That's the wrong type of chart. Can anyone explain to me the x-axis, or why it's a line graph?
3
Login to get fewer ads

Current xG graph on 17:42 - Jan 23 with 2882 viewsbobbyramsey

Current xG graph on 17:23 - Jan 23 by Plums

Assuming 'luck' doesn't exist, what would you put it down to?


I’m assuming there maybe one or two changes over the coming games so let’s see what difference the new additions make….
0
Current xG graph on 17:50 - Jan 23 with 2858 viewsDubtractor

Current xG graph on 17:41 - Jan 23 by SamWhiteUK

I have no idea how to read that graph. That's the wrong type of chart. Can anyone explain to me the x-axis, or why it's a line graph?


Haha. I'm so glad someone else beat me to this, makes me look like slightly less of a pedantic c@nt.

Should def be a bar chart though - I think the x axis represents each team in the division.

I was born underwater, I dried out in the sun. I started humping volcanoes baby, when I was too young.
Poll: Important Christmas poll - which is the best Celebration chocolate?

3
Current xG graph on 19:33 - Jan 23 with 2688 viewsNthQldITFC

Current xG graph on 17:31 - Jan 23 by HighgateBlue

The stats have been saying this for quite some weeks, but many just keep saying "but we've scored the most goals" as if failing to beat the likes of Cheltenham with 15 corners to zero wasn't a wake up call. And those corners from Davis were fantastic as well.

To be fair to McKenna, he wasn't one of the "we don't need a striker" brigade. Although he sees qualities in the likes of Jackson and Ladapo that not all of us do (and he obviously knows a zillion percent more than me and everyone else on here), he was clear that new blood up front was necessary, and hence brought in Hirst and Broadhead. We are mid table at finishing, and we are mid table at keeping out opposition chances once they're created. McKenna knows the issue, and I have as much confidence in him to sort it as it is reasonable to have.


I'm quite convinced that we're going to start scoring a lot of goals now. I think Broadhead, Hirst and Chappers will lead the way, but I think that will take a fair bit of the current pressure off the rest of team as well, and the goals will really flow to reflect the xG.

Hopefully things balance out a bit on the defensive xG as well, and I think Clarke's volume and perhaps the return of Edmundson may help but if we're winning 3-2 instead of 3-1, that's okay by me.

⚔ Long live the Duke of Punuar ⚔
Poll: What Olympic sport/group are you most 'into'?

1
Current xG graph on 19:51 - Jan 23 with 2640 viewsGavTWTD

How do you work out xG? Various formulae I've seen have been pretty complex.

If you liked my post, please take the time to upvote it. It's very much appreciated.
Poll: Will you watch the Championship Play-Off Final?
Blog: Man v Fat Football - A Personal Blog

0
Current xG graph on 20:19 - Jan 23 with 2553 viewsTrequartista

Current xG graph on 19:51 - Jan 23 by GavTWTD

How do you work out xG? Various formulae I've seen have been pretty complex.


All goals - unexpected goals = expected goals

Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

4
Current xG graph on 20:28 - Jan 23 with 2543 viewsitfcjoe

Current xG graph on 19:51 - Jan 23 by GavTWTD

How do you work out xG? Various formulae I've seen have been pretty complex.


It's basically shot location, shot type, assist type - plus some models will include position of goalkeepers/defenders etc.

Then there has to be more work done around multiple chances in one attack - i.e. if a penalty is saved and the rebound is scored that has to top out at 1 and this is done using formula which isn't overly complicated

Poll: Club vs country? What would you choose
Blog: What is Going on With the Academy at Ipswich Town?

0
Current xG graph on 20:32 - Jan 23 with 2519 viewsKropotkin123

I replied to Herb that xG was nonsense, which was the wrong choice of words. More that there are clear and identifiable failings that are evident beyond the xG metrics. As you say, the defense is the biggest concern.

What I think they do demonstrate, which Herb also mentions, is that we haven't been "found out" and any talk of getting rid of McKenna is doing a massive disservice to the positives he has made.

Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top.
Poll: Would you rather
Blog: Round Four: Eagle

0
Current xG graph on 20:44 - Jan 23 with 2479 viewsSamWhiteUK

Current xG graph on 17:50 - Jan 23 by Dubtractor

Haha. I'm so glad someone else beat me to this, makes me look like slightly less of a pedantic c@nt.

Should def be a bar chart though - I think the x axis represents each team in the division.


Sure, but what do the numbers represent? This is ridiculous! Point out a team other than one of the three labelled. How do the numbers match to the teams? Wtf is going on?! 🤣

EDIT: Here's a version that actually makes sense. Teams sorted in league order!!



I await the usual TWTD "constructive" criticism ;)
[Post edited 23 Jan 2023 21:01]
3
Current xG graph on 22:41 - Jan 23 with 2296 viewsExiled2Surrey

Current xG graph on 20:44 - Jan 23 by SamWhiteUK

Sure, but what do the numbers represent? This is ridiculous! Point out a team other than one of the three labelled. How do the numbers match to the teams? Wtf is going on?! 🤣

EDIT: Here's a version that actually makes sense. Teams sorted in league order!!



I await the usual TWTD "constructive" criticism ;)
[Post edited 23 Jan 2023 21:01]


So the best xg team at home to the worst xg team tomorrow - what could possibly go wrong?
0
Current xG graph on 22:52 - Jan 23 with 2263 viewsBondiBlue

Current xG graph on 17:23 - Jan 23 by Plums

Assuming 'luck' doesn't exist, what would you put it down to?


Not doing enough finishing practice in training.
[Post edited 23 Jan 2023 22:55]

Poll: Which would you accept?

0
Current xG graph on 22:54 - Jan 23 with 2252 viewsBondiBlue

Current xG graph on 20:44 - Jan 23 by SamWhiteUK

Sure, but what do the numbers represent? This is ridiculous! Point out a team other than one of the three labelled. How do the numbers match to the teams? Wtf is going on?! 🤣

EDIT: Here's a version that actually makes sense. Teams sorted in league order!!



I await the usual TWTD "constructive" criticism ;)
[Post edited 23 Jan 2023 21:01]


Much better, thanks

Poll: Which would you accept?

2
Current xG graph on 06:42 - Jan 24 with 2043 viewsbobbyramsey

Current xG graph on 20:44 - Jan 23 by SamWhiteUK

Sure, but what do the numbers represent? This is ridiculous! Point out a team other than one of the three labelled. How do the numbers match to the teams? Wtf is going on?! 🤣

EDIT: Here's a version that actually makes sense. Teams sorted in league order!!



I await the usual TWTD "constructive" criticism ;)
[Post edited 23 Jan 2023 21:01]


Even I understand this, it would be great to have one of these updated weekly?
0
Current xG graph on 08:05 - Jan 24 with 1956 viewsHerbivore

Current xG graph on 17:41 - Jan 23 by SamWhiteUK

I have no idea how to read that graph. That's the wrong type of chart. Can anyone explain to me the x-axis, or why it's a line graph?


The x axis is number of games isn't it? It's tracking xG over the course of the season to date. Agree a bar chart would work better though.

Poll: Latest TWTD opinion poll - who are you voting for?
Blog: Where Did It All Go Wrong for Paul Hurst?

0
Current xG graph on 08:11 - Jan 24 with 1924 viewsRobTheMonk

Is this a posh way of saying we need to score more and concede less?
0
Current xG graph on 08:41 - Jan 24 with 1865 viewsbobbyramsey

Current xG graph on 08:11 - Jan 24 by RobTheMonk

Is this a posh way of saying we need to score more and concede less?


Yes Rob, something that many of us have known for months…..;)
0
Current xG graph on 13:48 - Jan 24 with 1641 viewsKing_ding_a_lin_g

Current xG graph on 08:05 - Jan 24 by Herbivore

The x axis is number of games isn't it? It's tracking xG over the course of the season to date. Agree a bar chart would work better though.


Wouldn't that just be a flat line?
[Post edited 24 Jan 2023 13:49]
0
Current xG graph on 14:33 - Jan 24 with 1562 viewsHerbivore

Current xG graph on 13:48 - Jan 24 by King_ding_a_lin_g

Wouldn't that just be a flat line?
[Post edited 24 Jan 2023 13:49]


I'm no mathematician, but doesn't the line move up and down in relation to the y axis?

Poll: Latest TWTD opinion poll - who are you voting for?
Blog: Where Did It All Go Wrong for Paul Hurst?

0




About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© TWTD 1995-2025