Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive 12:53 - Aug 12 with 10300 views | giant_stow | dangerous? Clever? Whatever? |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 12:56 - Aug 12 with 4656 views | J2BLUE | Very dangerous but they probably feel they have nothing left to lose. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 12:57 - Aug 12 with 4651 views | Whos_blue | Not sure what to make of it mate. On the one hand it's good on 'em, but on the other I just don't understand why there and why now? It could be that the tacticians saw an opportunity for a morale boosting incursion? It makes me fearful of Putin's reaction. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:16 - Aug 12 with 4561 views | homer_123 | Dangerous, Clever and unexpected. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:28 - Aug 12 with 4524 views | Guthrum | Has both pros and cons. On the positive side: It sows alarm and confusion Morale boost for Ukraine to be on the offensive Dents Putin's strongman image (if he can't protect Russian soil from invasion) Gives Ukraine Russian territory as a potential bargaining chip May draw Russian reserves away from other areas of the front, perhaps ending their Donbas offensive Enables more efficient use of Western-supplied equipment, which is better suited to maneuver warfare than crawling trench battles The Russians have to try driving them out of siezed territory, opening the possibility of ambushes and grinding them up on prepared defensive positions Puts Ukraine within easier range of important Russian communication/supply lines Potentially creates a buffer zone, pushing back Russian bases for launching attacks Wrong-foots the Russians strategically Stretches Russian reserves (they have a limited supply of good quality, volunteer troops - conscripts are not being used in the "Special Military Operation") On the negative side: May use up carefully hoarded reserves, equipment and materiel, potentially weakening the defense elsewhere May make Western backers nervous due to operating within Russia itself Lenghtens the line of active battle, requiring more troops to man They might be defeated In terms of timing, there are a number of factors: Having enough time to achieve something before the autumn muddy season sets in Using reserves when they're ready and having received US supplies, plus F16 jets arriving in theatre Demonstrating to wavering allies that they are capable of success Putting down a marker before the US election Anything in war is dangerous, success or failure can turn on very small actions. It is that level of success (or otherwise) which determines whether this offensive is regarded as a good idea or not. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:39 - Aug 12 with 4477 views | victorywilhappen | Political rather than a smart military offensive move. The support of militants against Russian troops via intell was a strange move in West Africa recently also. Not sure many NATO countries/commanders are happy about these moves either. Their weapons and sharing of intell' to help militants they are fighting and encroaching Russian territory with provided assets is a dangerous political move. ( Even though they (NATO) are told such assets are not the ones being used..) edit- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78ld18lgr9o [Post edited 12 Aug 2024 13:45]
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:42 - Aug 12 with 4429 views | giant_stow |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:39 - Aug 12 by victorywilhappen | Political rather than a smart military offensive move. The support of militants against Russian troops via intell was a strange move in West Africa recently also. Not sure many NATO countries/commanders are happy about these moves either. Their weapons and sharing of intell' to help militants they are fighting and encroaching Russian territory with provided assets is a dangerous political move. ( Even though they (NATO) are told such assets are not the ones being used..) edit- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78ld18lgr9o [Post edited 12 Aug 2024 13:45]
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"The support of militants against Russian troops via intell was a strange move in West Africa recently also." Passed me by - not even sure what to google - got a link please? Thanks for you thoughts all - just seems a very left field move, although obviously I know nothing. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:44 - Aug 12 with 4412 views | victorywilhappen |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:42 - Aug 12 by giant_stow | "The support of militants against Russian troops via intell was a strange move in West Africa recently also." Passed me by - not even sure what to google - got a link please? Thanks for you thoughts all - just seems a very left field move, although obviously I know nothing. |
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78ld18lgr9o |  | |  |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:49 - Aug 12 with 4360 views | Guthrum |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:39 - Aug 12 by victorywilhappen | Political rather than a smart military offensive move. The support of militants against Russian troops via intell was a strange move in West Africa recently also. Not sure many NATO countries/commanders are happy about these moves either. Their weapons and sharing of intell' to help militants they are fighting and encroaching Russian territory with provided assets is a dangerous political move. ( Even though they (NATO) are told such assets are not the ones being used..) edit- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78ld18lgr9o [Post edited 12 Aug 2024 13:45]
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That incident in Mali was interesting. Given the recent spate of pro-Russian coups and heave involvement of the the organisation formerly known as Wagner, there may be a general shift in alliances in the region. After all, it might be possible to draw the Tuaregs away from their al-Qaeda affiliations (which were as much down to money and supplies as anything else) if the government are now hostile to the West. It's not like the regimes in Mali, Chad and so on are particularly nice. It's just a new front in Cold War II. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:49 - Aug 12 with 4340 views | ElephantintheRoom | Very reminiscent of Germany’s suicidal attack in the Ardennes But it’ll be good PR while it lasts….pity Robert Shaw isn’t still around for the film version. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:03 - Aug 12 with 4251 views | Kievthegreat | Depends on the goals of the operation. If the goal was to give Putin a bloody nose, seize some land for trades and gain control of some critical gas transit infrastructure, it's been a success. It's also not finished as recent sighting have them pushing onwards still. In terms of land, they've potentially gained as much is 6 days as Russia did in 6 months. If the main aim was to get the Russian forces to pivot away from the Donbass where they are currently making grinding gains though, then it's not been fully successful. Russia is reducing strength on all other fronts, but less so in the Donbass where they are wanting to press home their advantage right now. Which side is balancing their forces best? Too soon to tell. If nothing else is achieved, then Russia will have to fully man all the borders and not take for granted that Ukraine won't enter Russia in force. |  | |  |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:08 - Aug 12 with 4193 views | Guthrum |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:49 - Aug 12 by ElephantintheRoom | Very reminiscent of Germany’s suicidal attack in the Ardennes But it’ll be good PR while it lasts….pity Robert Shaw isn’t still around for the film version. |
I'm not sure it's a very good parallel. I doubt the Ukrainians are planning an overambitious drive to the Volga, cutting Russia in half. Wouldn't think they're relying on captured fuel dumps, either. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:13 - Aug 12 with 4173 views | victorywilhappen |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:03 - Aug 12 by Kievthegreat | Depends on the goals of the operation. If the goal was to give Putin a bloody nose, seize some land for trades and gain control of some critical gas transit infrastructure, it's been a success. It's also not finished as recent sighting have them pushing onwards still. In terms of land, they've potentially gained as much is 6 days as Russia did in 6 months. If the main aim was to get the Russian forces to pivot away from the Donbass where they are currently making grinding gains though, then it's not been fully successful. Russia is reducing strength on all other fronts, but less so in the Donbass where they are wanting to press home their advantage right now. Which side is balancing their forces best? Too soon to tell. If nothing else is achieved, then Russia will have to fully man all the borders and not take for granted that Ukraine won't enter Russia in force. |
Supply lines would need to be secured if that were to happen. At the moment they (Ukrainian troops) will probably be cut off and eliminated. An incursion that has a Nuclear plant hopefully shielding it from major missile strikes is not a smart military move or one allies will appreciate. [Post edited 12 Aug 2024 14:13]
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:15 - Aug 12 with 4129 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:08 - Aug 12 by Guthrum | I'm not sure it's a very good parallel. I doubt the Ukrainians are planning an overambitious drive to the Volga, cutting Russia in half. Wouldn't think they're relying on captured fuel dumps, either. |
Oh i dont know - it’s creating a bulge in the front line and taking key Ukrainians equipment ad troops away from the front where the real battles are beige thought. Putin is probably quite pleased. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:15 - Aug 12 with 4141 views | blueasfook | I think it's designed to draw Russian forces away from the front lines in Ukraine. Hopefully to give the Ukrainians a chance to seize some of their own land back. Fair play to them for taking to fight to Russia's doorstep. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:33 - Aug 12 with 4022 views | Guthrum |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:15 - Aug 12 by ElephantintheRoom | Oh i dont know - it’s creating a bulge in the front line and taking key Ukrainians equipment ad troops away from the front where the real battles are beige thought. Putin is probably quite pleased. |
It will draw Russian troops and equipment in too - as the Ardennes pulled forces away from the drive to the Rhine. They can't afford to just let Ukraine rampage around in Kursk oblast indefinitely. There are things in the area which do need defending (e.g. the Kursk to Belgorod road and rail links, frontline airfields). Even if the city itself is not threatened. In any case, mobile warfare elements are not well suited to grinding trench warfare of the sort happening on the Donbas front, anyway. They need infantry and artillery for that. Ukraine may as well use them for a relatively easy breakthrough and some troublemaking. The key with any bulge-battle is knowing when to pull back. Which Hitler was notoriously bad at. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:51 - Aug 12 with 3945 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:33 - Aug 12 by Guthrum | It will draw Russian troops and equipment in too - as the Ardennes pulled forces away from the drive to the Rhine. They can't afford to just let Ukraine rampage around in Kursk oblast indefinitely. There are things in the area which do need defending (e.g. the Kursk to Belgorod road and rail links, frontline airfields). Even if the city itself is not threatened. In any case, mobile warfare elements are not well suited to grinding trench warfare of the sort happening on the Donbas front, anyway. They need infantry and artillery for that. Ukraine may as well use them for a relatively easy breakthrough and some troublemaking. The key with any bulge-battle is knowing when to pull back. Which Hitler was notoriously bad at. |
I’m not sure anyone knows what’s really happening - but the inescapable truth is that Ukraine simply cannot supply whoever it is showboating in Russia for PR purposes. IF the footage being shown on television is genuine, which i very much doubt, Ukraine has already lost Western tanks. A couple of kids in Moscow with some drones can doom that attack as soon as they try anything…. As I alluded to in my original reply it’s an act of desperation…. Ukraine is doomed if the Republicans get in so a bit of PR before the election (and the autumn rains) can be invaluable. I suspect the Ukrainians are also more than a tad concerned that Iran kicking off a regional war in the Middle East might seem more important to all their staunch western allies prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian… and I suspect they’re right - so again a bit of pot stirring is good PR |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 15:06 - Aug 12 with 3899 views | Guthrum |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:51 - Aug 12 by ElephantintheRoom | I’m not sure anyone knows what’s really happening - but the inescapable truth is that Ukraine simply cannot supply whoever it is showboating in Russia for PR purposes. IF the footage being shown on television is genuine, which i very much doubt, Ukraine has already lost Western tanks. A couple of kids in Moscow with some drones can doom that attack as soon as they try anything…. As I alluded to in my original reply it’s an act of desperation…. Ukraine is doomed if the Republicans get in so a bit of PR before the election (and the autumn rains) can be invaluable. I suspect the Ukrainians are also more than a tad concerned that Iran kicking off a regional war in the Middle East might seem more important to all their staunch western allies prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian… and I suspect they’re right - so again a bit of pot stirring is good PR |
Yes, the whole thing is very vague. It may be a brigade-sized raid, or something more. Probably, like many military operations, flexible in case of unexpected success (or failure). The Russians have no desire to make things any clearer, as it's all rather embarrassing for them. |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 15:56 - Aug 12 with 3779 views | WD19 |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 13:49 - Aug 12 by ElephantintheRoom | Very reminiscent of Germany’s suicidal attack in the Ardennes But it’ll be good PR while it lasts….pity Robert Shaw isn’t still around for the film version. |
Good to know that your general negative c**ting goes beyond football. |  | |  |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 16:10 - Aug 12 with 3715 views | bluelagos | Lots of risks, but what strikes me is the strategic value if/when negotiations start. Trump wins, forces the Ukrainians to negotiate and Zelenski asks for pre2014 borders...Putin says no. But now, Ukraine could be holding some Russian territory. Might make the pre2014 borders look a lot more attractive/possible. Not read thread, apols if already covered/discussed |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 17:20 - Aug 12 with 3536 views | DinDjarin |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 14:15 - Aug 12 by blueasfook | I think it's designed to draw Russian forces away from the front lines in Ukraine. Hopefully to give the Ukrainians a chance to seize some of their own land back. Fair play to them for taking to fight to Russia's doorstep. |
Exactly that as Ukraine are losing ground, men and equipment in the Kharkiv region so probably is a distraction to pull Russian forces away from there. As much as the media like to promote Ukraine is winning they are desperate and literally running out of men and being ground down. If Trump get in and stop arms sent to Ukraine then they are done. Interesting read. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-war-frontline/ |  | |  |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 17:25 - Aug 12 with 3496 views | Kievthegreat |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 16:10 - Aug 12 by bluelagos | Lots of risks, but what strikes me is the strategic value if/when negotiations start. Trump wins, forces the Ukrainians to negotiate and Zelenski asks for pre2014 borders...Putin says no. But now, Ukraine could be holding some Russian territory. Might make the pre2014 borders look a lot more attractive/possible. Not read thread, apols if already covered/discussed |
There's been sounding at various points about would either side agree to a ceasefire on current frontlines, but it would seem this move makes it impossible for Putin as it now means not just giving up on his ambition but his land. As for 2014 borders, it's inconceivable unless it was absolutely forced by a changed reality on the ground. Russia has an enormous amount invested in holding Crimea. Strategically, militarily and economically, it is all-in. It would need more than a stalemate in the Donbass and slice of Kursk to achieve that. |  | |  |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 17:56 - Aug 12 with 3372 views | chicoazul | Your face is offensive more like |  |
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 18:06 - Aug 12 with 3316 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 17:20 - Aug 12 by DinDjarin | Exactly that as Ukraine are losing ground, men and equipment in the Kharkiv region so probably is a distraction to pull Russian forces away from there. As much as the media like to promote Ukraine is winning they are desperate and literally running out of men and being ground down. If Trump get in and stop arms sent to Ukraine then they are done. Interesting read. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-war-frontline/ |
Though we are talking WW1 levels of gains here, there’s no threat of Western Ukraine territory being lost, the West has too much financial and geopolitical interest to allow that. As for the US election it really depends on the race for the Senate as much as anything. Russia is losing casualties at its highest rate of the war right now (most western sources are agreed on >100k dead and >500k Russian casualties). These attritional losses are occurring because Russia is trying to take as much ground as possible before 1) the 60bn of military aid starts filtering through to the battlefield, and because 2) they’ve already burned through around half of their net sovereign wealth (some on military spending, the rest on propping up it’s economy). At current oil prices Russia has 1-2 years of liquid reserves left, and then cut off from raising capital externally it’s going to cause them a lot of problems. |  | |  |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 18:07 - Aug 12 with 3321 views | Perublue | I’m no military expert but it seems suicidal…poking the bear which clearly could have bitten a lot harder and nastier if it needed to in the last couple of years and at the same time “legitimising” the whole thing to the Russian population. Drawing Russian troops away from other regions maybe but sooooo risky,with an upsurge in the chances of a Democrat victory in the US elections too. All very odd,desperate,clandestine and sad. [Post edited 12 Aug 2024 18:11]
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Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 19:14 - Aug 12 with 3202 views | Kropotkin123 |
Just wondering what everyone makes of Ukraine's offensive on 16:10 - Aug 12 by bluelagos | Lots of risks, but what strikes me is the strategic value if/when negotiations start. Trump wins, forces the Ukrainians to negotiate and Zelenski asks for pre2014 borders...Putin says no. But now, Ukraine could be holding some Russian territory. Might make the pre2014 borders look a lot more attractive/possible. Not read thread, apols if already covered/discussed |
The Telegraph's "Ukraine the latest" podcast suggested this could be one of the motivations. Others being: • disrupting supply line. • dragging Russian forces away from other fronts • making ordinary Russian's aware they are in a war, not a special military operation • Exposing Putin as incompetent • there is an area that could allow Ukraine to draw a straight line along their boarder, making is easier to defend if they increase positional defences there. Ideas that were rejected included: • going for the power plant (80km in) to swap for zaporizhzhia. Deemed too risky to hold and likely to cause issues with allys. • Take control of the last pipeline going into Europe. This was a maybe, rather than a full no. But seen as unlikely at this stage. |  |
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