| Points for safety. 23:43 - Oct 9 with 2462 views | Mercian |
I think 32 may be enough which means 7 maybe 8 wins. I think 7 teams are in the scrap. The three teams below us and Leicester, Everton and Bournemouth above us although I can see the latter two and Palace pulling away. It will be a hard slog but doable. [Post edited 9 Oct 2024 23:49]
|  | | |  |
| Points for safety. on 06:22 - Oct 10 with 2245 views | franz_tyson |
Forget wins.... let's draw our way to safety.
34 draws is still possible. Kieran likes a draw. |  | | |
| Points for safety. on 06:34 - Oct 10 with 2230 views | Blue_Heath |
I doubt that, we are on course for another record number of points again like last two seasons. | | | |
| Points for safety. on 07:08 - Oct 10 with 2185 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
That link is 5 years old…
I think 35 remains the benchmark but it is quite possible it will be lower - in 2 of the last 4 seasons 28 points would have been enough to stay up, including last year where 26 would have sufficed |  |
| |
| Points for safety. on 07:09 - Oct 10 with 2182 views | Mercian |
In 2021 Fulham got 28 points and last season Luton got 29 both finishing in 18th place. [Post edited 10 Oct 2024 7:11]
| | | |
| Points for safety. on 07:43 - Oct 10 with 2107 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Points for safety. on 06:22 - Oct 10 by franz_tyson |
Forget wins.... let's draw our way to safety.
34 draws is still possible. Kieran likes a draw. |
A nodge fan I know said could this be the first season a team stays up without winning a match?
I thought he would know all about not winning in the Premier League but probably not so much about staying up. |  |
| |
| Points for safety. on 08:50 - Oct 10 with 2016 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Points for safety. on 07:09 - Oct 10 by Mercian |
In 2021 Fulham got 28 points and last season Luton got 29 both finishing in 18th place. [Post edited 10 Oct 2024 7:11]
|
Luton got 26 points last season, not 29 | |
| |
| Points for safety. on 10:32 - Oct 10 with 1888 views | Vaughan8 |
I thnk Bournemouth look quite good from what i've seen. I don't think they'll be down there.
Teams Like Everton and more recently Palace, always seem to escape when they are in trouble somehow.
I do think Someone like Brentford could drop down there at some point. I know their 9th and doing well at home.
So basically i'm nearly comdemning us to relegation.... haha. The season is still young though! | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Points for safety. on 11:20 - Oct 10 with 1835 views | Bent_double |
If we don't win at least 7 games this season, we don't deserve to stay up. |  |
| |
| Points for safety. on 11:27 - Oct 10 with 1811 views | Bobbychase |
| Points for safety. on 10:32 - Oct 10 by Vaughan8 |
I thnk Bournemouth look quite good from what i've seen. I don't think they'll be down there.
Teams Like Everton and more recently Palace, always seem to escape when they are in trouble somehow.
I do think Someone like Brentford could drop down there at some point. I know their 9th and doing well at home.
So basically i'm nearly comdemning us to relegation.... haha. The season is still young though! |
Wolves seem to be shipping goals for fun. |  |
| |
| Points for safety. on 11:59 - Oct 10 with 1781 views | Vegtablue |
Would be a very welcome change on the record-breaking demands of the past two seasons. Everton and Bournemouth were good for 48 points last year (ignoring FFP penalty). Both have lost their best player over the summer, with Bournemouth feeling they've strengthened overall and Everton feeling weaker.
Wolves were good for 46 points, lost their best player and certainly look weaker right now. They've had maybe the hardest opening fixtures and every 5th shot against them has ended up in the net, which is freakishly high - Forest are conceding roughly every 17th shot for comparison - is this a sign that Wolves' keeper signing Sam Johnstone isn't up to it, Wolves' defence are offering up much easier chances than the rest of the league, or that brighter skies should be on the horizon, or a mixture of the three?
Palace were doing badly before the Glasner bounce, which morphed into rocket fuel by the end of the season - maybe they'll continue to become the shock despite their England internationals (did lose arguably their best player in Olise). Forest and Brentford were the two below 40 last campaign, but sadly look to have found their groove and I really rate Frank, while Forest are now a better team on paper as well as so far on the pitch. We need at least one of these to shoot 32 or below for that total to be enough, maybe two if Leicester continue to be as competitive as they've shown up to now. | | | |
| Points for safety. on 12:56 - Oct 10 with 1683 views | textbackup |
| Points for safety. on 11:20 - Oct 10 by Bent_double |
If we don't win at least 7 games this season, we don't deserve to stay up. |
And if we did stay up by winning only 4/5 that would a be a pretty miserable season. (Although we’d all take it I’m sure) |  |
| |
| Points for safety. on 13:22 - Oct 10 with 1642 views | _clive_baker_ |
Its a very different mindset when you're scrapping to stay up rather than go up. With the exception of our relegation season when we went down with a whimper we're not overly used to it. Certainly since KM came in we've been competing at the right end of the table, and even in L1 prior to that it was our expectation if not the reality over the course of a season. When you're trying to keep pace with a pack picking up 2+ points on average per game anything but a win can be really damaging.
Relegation fights are a different beast, you might lose 4 on the bounce and draws aren't disastrous. Roughly speaking 1 point per game should be about enough, and to do that it could feasibly come through 8 or 9 wins, 11 or 12 draws etc and broadly losing half our games. We're not far off it now, albeit Saturday was a real disappointment. I think we've played well against Villa and Fulham, Southampton wasn't vintage but the point was OK, Brighton was backs to the wall and a little fortunate, but a great point. Liverpool and City was always going to be tough, made even more so given the circumstances and late acquisitions in the transfer window.
Chunking the season down into 2 halves pre and post New Year you would hope we're on at least 17 points at the half way point to give us a decent chance. That's 13 points from the next 12 as a minimum I would say. Given the fixtures you would hope for 4 from the next 3 probably, leaving 1ppg for the following 9. |  | | |
| Points for safety. on 13:49 - Oct 10 with 1590 views | Dennyx4 |
| Points for safety. on 07:08 - Oct 10 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
That link is 5 years old…
I think 35 remains the benchmark but it is quite possible it will be lower - in 2 of the last 4 seasons 28 points would have been enough to stay up, including last year where 26 would have sufficed |
It is an interesting debate, whether one point above 3rd bottom would be enough to stay up or the amount of points 4th bottom got is what is needed.
Because if Luton had got one more point last season, they would still have been relegated.
Forest finished 4th bottom last season with 32 (however had 4 points deducted, so would have been 36).
Think you are looking at somewhere near to 36 points to survive. |  | | |
| Points for safety. on 13:50 - Oct 10 with 1588 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Points for safety. on 13:22 - Oct 10 by _clive_baker_ |
Its a very different mindset when you're scrapping to stay up rather than go up. With the exception of our relegation season when we went down with a whimper we're not overly used to it. Certainly since KM came in we've been competing at the right end of the table, and even in L1 prior to that it was our expectation if not the reality over the course of a season. When you're trying to keep pace with a pack picking up 2+ points on average per game anything but a win can be really damaging.
Relegation fights are a different beast, you might lose 4 on the bounce and draws aren't disastrous. Roughly speaking 1 point per game should be about enough, and to do that it could feasibly come through 8 or 9 wins, 11 or 12 draws etc and broadly losing half our games. We're not far off it now, albeit Saturday was a real disappointment. I think we've played well against Villa and Fulham, Southampton wasn't vintage but the point was OK, Brighton was backs to the wall and a little fortunate, but a great point. Liverpool and City was always going to be tough, made even more so given the circumstances and late acquisitions in the transfer window.
Chunking the season down into 2 halves pre and post New Year you would hope we're on at least 17 points at the half way point to give us a decent chance. That's 13 points from the next 12 as a minimum I would say. Given the fixtures you would hope for 4 from the next 3 probably, leaving 1ppg for the following 9. |
Away games are going to be hideously tough all season. Away wins are pretty rare. I think people need to be used to us losing and any point you can get on the road is a good one. What we can't afford to do is give many points away at home against teams in the bottom half of the league.
Forest picked up 8 points away from home in 21/22 and still stayed up as they managed to get 30 points at home. I would like to think we can get a few more points on the road than that, but that is the kind of example we will need to follow to stay up. If we can play like we did against Fulham/Villa in every home game this season, I feel like we will be fine and the points will accumulate. | | | |
| Points for safety. on 14:02 - Oct 10 with 1548 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Points for safety. on 13:50 - Oct 10 by tractorboy1978 |
Away games are going to be hideously tough all season. Away wins are pretty rare. I think people need to be used to us losing and any point you can get on the road is a good one. What we can't afford to do is give many points away at home against teams in the bottom half of the league.
Forest picked up 8 points away from home in 21/22 and still stayed up as they managed to get 30 points at home. I would like to think we can get a few more points on the road than that, but that is the kind of example we will need to follow to stay up. If we can play like we did against Fulham/Villa in every home game this season, I feel like we will be fine and the points will accumulate. |
I agree, I think we'll probably want to be taking 25 points at PR this season as a minimum. 6 or 7 wins at home feels like a necessity to stay up. We're at 0 from 3 so far, but given Liverpool and Villa are Champions league outfits and Fulham are a tidy side its not a disaster to take 2 points from those games. Of course 4 would've been a lot better. I think we can win 6 or 7 of our remaining 15 home games though, 1 or 2 might well come where you're not expecting them to. If we can get 2 wins on the road we'll already have matched Forest in 21/22 even if we lost all of the other 12. As you say I think we can do a bit better than that.
Getting that 1st win feels like a bit of a monkey on our backs now, needless to say the sooner it comes the better, and IF its to be against Everton I think it would be a huge boost to everyone. If it doesn't come in the next 3 games I'll start to fear the worst. | | | |
| Points for safety. on 14:09 - Oct 10 with 1524 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Points for safety. on 13:49 - Oct 10 by Dennyx4 |
It is an interesting debate, whether one point above 3rd bottom would be enough to stay up or the amount of points 4th bottom got is what is needed.
Because if Luton had got one more point last season, they would still have been relegated.
Forest finished 4th bottom last season with 32 (however had 4 points deducted, so would have been 36).
Think you are looking at somewhere near to 36 points to survive. |
You could also argue the points distribution would be different too. Had the bottom 3 got more points then the rest of the division would've got less, mostly among the bottom half sides probably.
Someone said to me recently we're definitely finishing bottom as we've only got 4 points from 7 and not won a game yet. I asked them why it means we're definitely finishing bottom and they said because we're run-rating at 22 points. Had to remind them if you're applying that logic then there's still 3 teams finishing below us, as there's 3 teams currently below us after the same number of games. Numpty.
Ultimately its all a bit of a moot point anyway. | | | |
| Points for safety. on 16:10 - Oct 10 with 1385 views | Dennyx4 |
| Points for safety. on 14:09 - Oct 10 by _clive_baker_ |
You could also argue the points distribution would be different too. Had the bottom 3 got more points then the rest of the division would've got less, mostly among the bottom half sides probably.
Someone said to me recently we're definitely finishing bottom as we've only got 4 points from 7 and not won a game yet. I asked them why it means we're definitely finishing bottom and they said because we're run-rating at 22 points. Had to remind them if you're applying that logic then there's still 3 teams finishing below us, as there's 3 teams currently below us after the same number of games. Numpty.
Ultimately its all a bit of a moot point anyway. |
Fair point, if you have a team with a very low points tally, it probably increases the number to survive, as they will have not taken points from their rivals. | | | |
| Points for safety. on 18:53 - Oct 10 with 1256 views | MK1 |
Think Southampton go down. It is then 2 from 3 for me. Leicester, Wolves & Ourselves. It's going to be very close. Every single point gain is vital. Think we will do it, but think we can do it. 35 points and I think we stay up. |  |
| |
| Points for safety. on 19:12 - Oct 10 with 1226 views | FrimleyBlue |
I've always thought 10 wins. 8 draws should do it
But the vast majority of those wins being at home. So hipe we start that little run soon |  |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
