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Not the virus itself but the knock on effect. Schools closing, global markets crashing, retail businesses will surely take a hammering as people stay in, all of which inevitably leads to mass unemployment, homelessness, anarchy, vigilantism, eating rats to survive and an apocalyptic dystopian wasteland where only the fittest and fastest survive?
Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 15:50 - Mar 12 by Swansea_Blue
You've not been to Wales then?
Haverford West on a Saturday night.
Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
No, it won't be apocalyptic. Not to say there isn't going to be a seismic socioeconomic effect. There almost certainly will be, but yes, you're watching too many horror films :)
Many people still being incredibly blase about the initial public health ramifications, before we even get into the knock-on socioeconomic effects. The UK government's mitigation (e.g. building more ICU capacity) should have started at least a week or two ago. In a couple of months looking back, there will be a lot of anger at the general complacency. They are taking it seriously, but not seriously enough.
Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 16:23 - Mar 12 by hampstead_blue
Haverford West on a Saturday night.
I had a weekend in the Haverfordwest Premier Inn not too long ago. The pub next to it is the only one I've ever been to where the beer was utterly undrinkable; tried 3 different sorts of draught and they'd all gone off. An apocalyptic dystopian wasteland indeed.
Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 16:34 - Mar 12 by Dyland
No, it won't be apocalyptic. Not to say there isn't going to be a seismic socioeconomic effect. There almost certainly will be, but yes, you're watching too many horror films :)
Many people still being incredibly blase about the initial public health ramifications, before we even get into the knock-on socioeconomic effects. The UK government's mitigation (e.g. building more ICU capacity) should have started at least a week or two ago. In a couple of months looking back, there will be a lot of anger at the general complacency. They are taking it seriously, but not seriously enough.
[Post edited 12 Mar 2020 16:46]
My hope is perhaps people will finally wake up to the fact the Tories don't care about pretty much most people. That and Johnson really is the bumbling, lying crook many people know he is. Then again similar could be said about Trump and his fans are still rallying to his defence.
Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 16:44 - Mar 12 by monytowbray
My hope is perhaps people will finally wake up to the fact the Tories don't care about pretty much most people. That and Johnson really is the bumbling, lying crook many people know he is. Then again similar could be said about Trump and his fans are still rallying to his defence.
the theatrical back slapping from PM to his chancellor was pathetic yesterday. Still all a big charade and a game to Johnson and his like. Still!.......I didn't vote for it.
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Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 16:52 - Mar 12 with 4755 views
Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 16:44 - Mar 12 by monytowbray
My hope is perhaps people will finally wake up to the fact the Tories don't care about pretty much most people. That and Johnson really is the bumbling, lying crook many people know he is. Then again similar could be said about Trump and his fans are still rallying to his defence.
Not sure this is the time to be engaging in political point scoring. I am also not sure how your point refers to the response that has been made thus far. He seems to be taking an advice based approach to the problem which is surely a good thing. We might not all agree but it's better than what it could have been.
Apparently Hancock is in direct contact with Ashworth according to a Labour MP on TV last night and they are working together on many issues.
SB
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Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 16:58 - Mar 12 with 4725 views
Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 16:34 - Mar 12 by Dyland
No, it won't be apocalyptic. Not to say there isn't going to be a seismic socioeconomic effect. There almost certainly will be, but yes, you're watching too many horror films :)
Many people still being incredibly blase about the initial public health ramifications, before we even get into the knock-on socioeconomic effects. The UK government's mitigation (e.g. building more ICU capacity) should have started at least a week or two ago. In a couple of months looking back, there will be a lot of anger at the general complacency. They are taking it seriously, but not seriously enough.
[Post edited 12 Mar 2020 16:46]
You're one of the best of them, Dyllers - this is pretty much exactly how I see it.
This is going to be the biggest thing that has happened to any of us, in our lifetimes; I think the 2008 crash will pale into relative insignificance, against what will happen over the next few weeks.
But it won't be a real-life The Road.
That Warren Buffett quote along the lines of 'It's only when the tide goes out, that you see who's been swimming naked', will seem pretty apt.
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Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 17:44 - Mar 12 with 4592 views
I think 2020 will be a tough one, globally. Inevitably schools will close, as will offices, retail, construction sites etc and there will be a lot of collateral damage economically. Job losses are inevitable, and it's highly likely we'll enter into a technical recession if this thing lasts more than a few months. That'll take a while to recover from, but recover we will.
The main thing is trying to prevent loss of life as best as possible. I think the scary thing is the mortality rate of 3% - 4% sounds very high, but the reality is probably significantly lower, as a number of people won't have been diagnosed and will overcome the illness. So the 8 deaths in the UK are perhaps 8 of 1,000 rather than 8 of 500 odd. Perhaps even more than that. Admittedly not all of those confirmed cases are yet to make a full recovery, but I think the mortality rate will come down with more reliable data and as we learn how to deal with this thing.
This is all speculation but if this reaches a steady state of 2% ish, that's 10x worse than Flu. If we assume the measures taken help by 25% of so you're talking about 7.5x as many folk dying from this thing in a typical year as die from Influenza. On that basis it's quite possible that 100,000 people will succumb to it in the UK alone. Clearly it's scary, but I really do think people need to just follow the advice and try to be selfless about their actions, staying in if not feeling well, keeping kids off school, washing hands regularly etc.
If it stopped tomorrow it would take months to recover, this is going to be bad. It's already on a par with 9/11 for the travel industry, that's a lot of money and a lot of related jobs in all sectors. The markets are getting hammered, sporting events cancelled have big knock effects as well. From the guys pouring pints, to the money that comes from those buying them, not to mention the major sponsorship and marketing ramifications of cancellations. The next month is already written off, if not contained by the end of May this it's going to be a disaster for many.
March Madness is a pretty big deal this side of the pond and cancelling that will be a huge economic hit. Just one example of something that is already going to happen.
Will it recover, yes, it's not 2008 style, banks are not about to go bust but we are already having negative growth globally (so we are in a public health crisis global recession as of now). That said, we started from a strong position a mere 3 weeks ago so it should be resilient enough when said or done, just a case of when, that's the scary part.
[Post edited 13 Mar 2020 4:29]
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Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 04:51 - Mar 13 with 4010 views
Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 04:28 - Mar 13 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior
If it stopped tomorrow it would take months to recover, this is going to be bad. It's already on a par with 9/11 for the travel industry, that's a lot of money and a lot of related jobs in all sectors. The markets are getting hammered, sporting events cancelled have big knock effects as well. From the guys pouring pints, to the money that comes from those buying them, not to mention the major sponsorship and marketing ramifications of cancellations. The next month is already written off, if not contained by the end of May this it's going to be a disaster for many.
March Madness is a pretty big deal this side of the pond and cancelling that will be a huge economic hit. Just one example of something that is already going to happen.
Will it recover, yes, it's not 2008 style, banks are not about to go bust but we are already having negative growth globally (so we are in a public health crisis global recession as of now). That said, we started from a strong position a mere 3 weeks ago so it should be resilient enough when said or done, just a case of when, that's the scary part.
[Post edited 13 Mar 2020 4:29]
The chance of containment is past - that ship has sailed.
The focus needs to be on slowing the spread so that we have enough ICU beds to cope...otherwise docs will need to decide who to save...the COVID-19 case or the heart attack victim...and they will need to make these choices several times a day.
This is what is happening in Italy and Iran and why the mortality rate is so high - there just isn't the resources to cope.
As for the economic impact - yes may be on a par with 2008 but governments will have more liberty to intervene.
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Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 07:10 - Mar 13 with 3874 views
Is this the beginning of the end of days? on 16:58 - Mar 12 by Funge
You're one of the best of them, Dyllers - this is pretty much exactly how I see it.
This is going to be the biggest thing that has happened to any of us, in our lifetimes; I think the 2008 crash will pale into relative insignificance, against what will happen over the next few weeks.
But it won't be a real-life The Road.
That Warren Buffett quote along the lines of 'It's only when the tide goes out, that you see who's been swimming naked', will seem pretty apt.
I'd reply with a hug emoji Fungers dear chap, but you'll have to settle for a virtual elbow bump instead ;)
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