| Let's get it out there on the record then... 12:40 - Oct 29 with 68295 views | SpruceMoose |
Voting intention?
Spruce: Currently undecided. |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:02 - Oct 31 with 2363 views | NewcyBlue |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 08:50 - Oct 31 by BanksterDebtSlave |
I lived in a Capri one Summer....I had forgotten til now! Limited headroom when sleeping. |
What one did you have? I had a 1600 Laser. I put in a 2.0 with twin Webber’s on. It was beautiful. |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:02 - Oct 31 with 2362 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:00 - Oct 31 by NewcyBlue |
I only say Capri because I used to have one, and would love another.
Spitfire and Interceptor are both good shouts! |
I had a red Capri with a black vinyl roof when I was 18. Loved it. Great cars back in the day. |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:10 - Oct 31 with 2340 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:02 - Oct 31 by NewcyBlue |
What one did you have? I had a 1600 Laser. I put in a 2.0 with twin Webber’s on. It was beautiful. |
Not the foggiest idea it was on a green lane in Street, Somerset and didn't work....it was red though .... rumours were that some Ipswich fan got mullered at Glastonbury and abandoned it! |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:17 - Oct 31 with 2323 views | BrixtonBlue |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 14:20 - Oct 30 by GlasgowBlue |
Now had I posted that you would have a point. But I didn’t. Read the post again. |
It's the insinuation - a vote for Labour is a vote for antisemitism. It's wrong. It isn't. |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:30 - Oct 31 with 2307 views | wkj |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 20:19 - Oct 30 by footers |
"A Norwich free of Westminster" - finally. |
One day, we're going pull it off mate. I have some very savvy people backing me at the moment. |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:45 - Oct 31 with 2281 views | chicoazul |
My intention is the same as it has been since 2010; not to vote. |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:57 - Oct 31 with 2267 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:17 - Oct 31 by BrixtonBlue |
It's the insinuation - a vote for Labour is a vote for antisemitism. It's wrong. It isn't. |
A vote for labour, no matter how decent the local candidate is, puts an antisemite closer to number ten.
The Jewish Labour Movement has been affiliated to the party for nearly 100 years. This will be the first election where it has not campaigned to make the Labour leader PM.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corby
The Labour Party go into this election under a statutory investigation by the EHRC for institutional racism.
A new poll for the Jewish News found that only 6% of British Jews will vote a labour in this election with nearly half of British Jews saying they would consider leaving the country if Corbyn is elected PM,
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/election-poll-2019-survation-jn/
You’ve been in enough of these threads to know there is a serious issue with antisemitism in the Labour Party. The Jewish community in the U.K. feel under threat by Corbyn.
You know all of this yet are still prepared to vote Labour. Not because you support antisemitism but because you believe Labour’s policies will make the country a fairer or better place. But you do so knowing all of the above. | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 10:01 - Oct 31 with 2254 views | J2BLUE |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:57 - Oct 31 by GlasgowBlue |
A vote for labour, no matter how decent the local candidate is, puts an antisemite closer to number ten.
The Jewish Labour Movement has been affiliated to the party for nearly 100 years. This will be the first election where it has not campaigned to make the Labour leader PM.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corby
The Labour Party go into this election under a statutory investigation by the EHRC for institutional racism.
A new poll for the Jewish News found that only 6% of British Jews will vote a labour in this election with nearly half of British Jews saying they would consider leaving the country if Corbyn is elected PM,
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/election-poll-2019-survation-jn/
You’ve been in enough of these threads to know there is a serious issue with antisemitism in the Labour Party. The Jewish community in the U.K. feel under threat by Corbyn.
You know all of this yet are still prepared to vote Labour. Not because you support antisemitism but because you believe Labour’s policies will make the country a fairer or better place. But you do so knowing all of the above. |
In our two party system what is the alternative for someone like Dolly?
I have no idea who to vote for. If the election was today I wouldn't be bothering. |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 10:05 - Oct 31 with 2241 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 10:01 - Oct 31 by J2BLUE |
In our two party system what is the alternative for someone like Dolly?
I have no idea who to vote for. If the election was today I wouldn't be bothering. |
Does it have to be a two party system? Break the wheel. | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 10:10 - Oct 31 with 2226 views | J2BLUE |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 10:05 - Oct 31 by GlasgowBlue |
Does it have to be a two party system? Break the wheel. |
Realistically, for most people in England, it will likely remain so yes. | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 10:18 - Oct 31 with 2215 views | Darth_Koont |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:57 - Oct 31 by GlasgowBlue |
A vote for labour, no matter how decent the local candidate is, puts an antisemite closer to number ten.
The Jewish Labour Movement has been affiliated to the party for nearly 100 years. This will be the first election where it has not campaigned to make the Labour leader PM.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corby
The Labour Party go into this election under a statutory investigation by the EHRC for institutional racism.
A new poll for the Jewish News found that only 6% of British Jews will vote a labour in this election with nearly half of British Jews saying they would consider leaving the country if Corbyn is elected PM,
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/election-poll-2019-survation-jn/
You’ve been in enough of these threads to know there is a serious issue with antisemitism in the Labour Party. The Jewish community in the U.K. feel under threat by Corbyn.
You know all of this yet are still prepared to vote Labour. Not because you support antisemitism but because you believe Labour’s policies will make the country a fairer or better place. But you do so knowing all of the above. |
"A vote for labour, no matter how decent the local candidate is, puts an antisemite closer to number ten."
Awful fear-mongering nonsense. |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 10:22 - Oct 31 with 2186 views | Ryorry |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 23:08 - Oct 30 by NewcyBlue |
“ Good for you - you're certainly a better person than I.”
No, I’m not mate. I am lucky to have my health, have a decently paid job, have a lot of time off.
I am fortunate to have these things, and so I cannot allow myself to squander my time. I have to deserve what I have. I have to be a role model to Seb. Part of that is being open to different ideas and beliefs. Whether I agree with them or not. Let’s face it, it’s extremes that cause the problems. Right/left/whatever extreme it is, it is an issue. I do believe there are boundaries, I have literally thrown someone off a train at a station for, because of racial abuse they were giving to MrsN. I’d have done it for anybody in the same situation, not just MrsN.
Hope you’re well mate. |
This + your previous post just before it - posts of the year.
Just heard tail end of R5l phone in on how bitter, angry, divided and abusive the UK's become, and how shocking the volume & level of abuse is that many MPs, particularly females, are receiving (personally, even if I had the aptitude & desire to be a politician this would put me off - anyone else?).
If I'd had the time, I'd have rung in to say that whilst that's true, I also come across a huge amount of kindness, consideration, goodwill & selfless behaviour from many people on a regular basis - including from young people (even down to quite young kids, eg 8 year olds). Perhaps I'm just lucky in where I live! But you're a good example of what I mean, and you & Mrs NB are obviously raising Seb to be same, so thank you :) |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 11:28 - Oct 31 with 2118 views | StokieBlue |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 19:14 - Oct 30 by SpruceMoose |
This is beyond my capabilities. Your point makes sense to me fwiw. You'll need a Footers or a Stokie to say if this is accurate or a load of old guff, but they do explain their methodology here:
"A lot has happened since the last General Election in 2017. Some parties have new leaders, others have changed their Brexit policies. This means we can’t rely on the 2017 vote shares in each seat to help us predict what will happen this time. Instead, our recommendations use a technique called multilevel regression and post stratification or MRP for short.
It’s now the favoured approach of most political forecasters, and was used to correctly predict the election of Donald Trump, and the surprise wins for Labour in Kensington and Canterbury in 2017. The MRP we have used for these recommendations was undertaken in October 2019 on a sample size of 46,000 voters.
We also use, where available, political analysis of local candidates’ past statements and policies. So though our decisions are data-led, we take into account the political situation as well." |
I think the issue people are getting with the website is not due to the MRP modelling but due to an entirely subject assumption they have included in the modelling without any real explanation:
We are a cross party campaign with a mission to stop Brexit by any democratic means. We consider each candidate and their position on Brexit in our recommendations - this means we considered supporting Green, Plaid Cymru, Lib-Dem, Labour, and Independent candidates based on their willingness to do the right thing as well as their chance of beating the Brexiter candidates. We’ve taken these decisions on a case-by-case basis in every seat. That said, you can be sure we will not recommend The Brexit Party or The Conservative Party in any constituency under any circumstances!
That is hugely subjective and can throw everything off. For instance, if you apply a weighting factor based on the MPs likelihood of "doing the right thing" it could hugely skew the score. Without them expanding on that criteria and how it is integrated into the model I would say the website is pretty useless.
I would actually go further and say it could easily be abused. If people aren't willing to look into the assumptions made then this entirely subjective factor could allow them to bias and skew the results as they see fit but in an opaque way.
On MRP itself, it looks like a good way to go about things. Basically work out how certain demographics of people tend to vote (obviously this has to be somewhat probabilistic) and then combine the normal polling results with the demographics of an area taken from census data to project how people in specific constituencies are likely to vote.
SB |  |
| Avatar - M51 - The Whirlpool Galaxy - Taken on 29th April 2024 |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 11:43 - Oct 31 with 2095 views | giant_stow |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:57 - Oct 31 by GlasgowBlue |
A vote for labour, no matter how decent the local candidate is, puts an antisemite closer to number ten.
The Jewish Labour Movement has been affiliated to the party for nearly 100 years. This will be the first election where it has not campaigned to make the Labour leader PM.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corby
The Labour Party go into this election under a statutory investigation by the EHRC for institutional racism.
A new poll for the Jewish News found that only 6% of British Jews will vote a labour in this election with nearly half of British Jews saying they would consider leaving the country if Corbyn is elected PM,
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/election-poll-2019-survation-jn/
You’ve been in enough of these threads to know there is a serious issue with antisemitism in the Labour Party. The Jewish community in the U.K. feel under threat by Corbyn.
You know all of this yet are still prepared to vote Labour. Not because you support antisemitism but because you believe Labour’s policies will make the country a fairer or better place. But you do so knowing all of the above. |
Even the JLM is going to support the odd labour MP's election, so doesn't that mess with 'A vote for labour, no matter how decent the local candidate is, puts an antisemite closer to number ten.'?
I don't like it mr, but your former party's behaviour has left no option for many. |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 11:59 - Oct 31 with 2073 views | Darth_Koont |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 11:43 - Oct 31 by giant_stow |
Even the JLM is going to support the odd labour MP's election, so doesn't that mess with 'A vote for labour, no matter how decent the local candidate is, puts an antisemite closer to number ten.'?
I don't like it mr, but your former party's behaviour has left no option for many. |
It's also based on a pyramid of accusations, assertions and leaps of logic that are meant to equate to "Corbyn is an antisemite".
The pyramid of evidence that backs that up is conspicuously absent. Question these blithe assertions every time you hear them just like you would question any claim against a political opponent. | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:03 - Oct 31 with 2055 views | Ryorry |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 11:43 - Oct 31 by giant_stow |
Even the JLM is going to support the odd labour MP's election, so doesn't that mess with 'A vote for labour, no matter how decent the local candidate is, puts an antisemite closer to number ten.'?
I don't like it mr, but your former party's behaviour has left no option for many. |
Unfortunately, there are aspects of labour policies which mean they are also not an option for many!
If everyone actually had the courage of their convictions to vote Green, or maybe LibDem or SNP, instead of thinking that would be a waste, the UK could be in a much better place ... | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:05 - Oct 31 with 2049 views | footers |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:03 - Oct 31 by Ryorry |
Unfortunately, there are aspects of labour policies which mean they are also not an option for many!
If everyone actually had the courage of their convictions to vote Green, or maybe LibDem or SNP, instead of thinking that would be a waste, the UK could be in a much better place ... |
What aspects most trouble you, R? |  |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:05 - Oct 31 with 2040 views | StokieBlue |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:03 - Oct 31 by Ryorry |
Unfortunately, there are aspects of labour policies which mean they are also not an option for many!
If everyone actually had the courage of their convictions to vote Green, or maybe LibDem or SNP, instead of thinking that would be a waste, the UK could be in a much better place ... |
I agree with the sentiment of this but for some it actually is a waste.
My MP has 75% of the vote. it would take 20,000 people to swing it away from her.
If we want people to be able to vote for minority parties we need electoral reform.
SB | |
| Avatar - M51 - The Whirlpool Galaxy - Taken on 29th April 2024 |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:08 - Oct 31 with 2031 views | Ryorry |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 09:02 - Oct 31 by GlasgowBlue |
I had a red Capri with a black vinyl roof when I was 18. Loved it. Great cars back in the day. |
As we're talking old cars, I had an army green Triumph Herald for my second year at Ipswich College in 1974. Imagine my shock a few months ago when strimming the grass at the top of our drive which is on a very, very minor lane out in the sticks in N. Yorkshire, and the exact same colour & model came swinging round the corner & onwards! Didn't have enough time to see the number plate, unfortunately! | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:13 - Oct 31 with 2015 views | giant_stow |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 11:59 - Oct 31 by Darth_Koont |
It's also based on a pyramid of accusations, assertions and leaps of logic that are meant to equate to "Corbyn is an antisemite".
The pyramid of evidence that backs that up is conspicuously absent. Question these blithe assertions every time you hear them just like you would question any claim against a political opponent. |
If Corbyn is an antisemite or the party has become instituionally antisemtic, then I have some faith in the investigation and its power to rectify those wrongs.
In a constituency where it was lab vs con with the others distant, it would make no sense to effectively reject one bunch or racists in favour of another by voting for an impossible winner. | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:23 - Oct 31 with 2000 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 11:59 - Oct 31 by Darth_Koont |
It's also based on a pyramid of accusations, assertions and leaps of logic that are meant to equate to "Corbyn is an antisemite".
The pyramid of evidence that backs that up is conspicuously absent. Question these blithe assertions every time you hear them just like you would question any claim against a political opponent. |
Hmmmm
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:26 - Oct 31 with 1988 views | Ryorry |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:05 - Oct 31 by footers |
What aspects most trouble you, R? |
The policy that would actually hugely damage me personally, more than that of any other party (unless you generally include the Tories' NHS bashing, but that's too nebulous to nail down), would be their forcing landlords to sell - and at below market price too, but that's not the worst aspect of it - their rental properties to tenants. In my case, I bought a house with in-built small annexe (which LA regards as a separate property) in order to house a carer at some future point when I need. Till then I let it out to singles or young couples at a low-ish rent.
If Lab policy were implemented, I'd be forced to take it off the rental market, which would reduce my income to breadline level - not to mention removing a good quality, much needed let from people who need it. Round here in rural N. Yorks, small-size decent rentals for singles or young couples are v. scarce.
The RLA conducted a large scale survey which showed that if Lab were to implement the policy, a huge % of rental properties would immediately be taken off the market by landlords. It's a stupid, ill-conceived, not thought-through policy that'll actually increase rents & homelessness. The housing crisis does urgently need addressing of course - but not in a way that'll actually exacerbate it! | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:43 - Oct 31 with 1950 views | Darth_Koont |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:23 - Oct 31 by GlasgowBlue |
Hmmmm
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So just doubling down on the same associations and accusations? I could prove that Rachel Riley is a far-right racist if I mapped her associations. But is she a far-right racist? Of course not.
You've been peddling this stuff for several years now. Time to address policies rather than the party political character assassination and lies. | |
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| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:47 - Oct 31 with 1930 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:26 - Oct 31 by Ryorry |
The policy that would actually hugely damage me personally, more than that of any other party (unless you generally include the Tories' NHS bashing, but that's too nebulous to nail down), would be their forcing landlords to sell - and at below market price too, but that's not the worst aspect of it - their rental properties to tenants. In my case, I bought a house with in-built small annexe (which LA regards as a separate property) in order to house a carer at some future point when I need. Till then I let it out to singles or young couples at a low-ish rent.
If Lab policy were implemented, I'd be forced to take it off the rental market, which would reduce my income to breadline level - not to mention removing a good quality, much needed let from people who need it. Round here in rural N. Yorks, small-size decent rentals for singles or young couples are v. scarce.
The RLA conducted a large scale survey which showed that if Lab were to implement the policy, a huge % of rental properties would immediately be taken off the market by landlords. It's a stupid, ill-conceived, not thought-through policy that'll actually increase rents & homelessness. The housing crisis does urgently need addressing of course - but not in a way that'll actually exacerbate it! |
It's not an actual policy though. It was an idea put forward, possibly with the aim of seeing the reaction to it. |  | | |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:55 - Oct 31 with 1899 views | giant_stow |
| Let's get it out there on the record then... on 12:26 - Oct 31 by Ryorry |
The policy that would actually hugely damage me personally, more than that of any other party (unless you generally include the Tories' NHS bashing, but that's too nebulous to nail down), would be their forcing landlords to sell - and at below market price too, but that's not the worst aspect of it - their rental properties to tenants. In my case, I bought a house with in-built small annexe (which LA regards as a separate property) in order to house a carer at some future point when I need. Till then I let it out to singles or young couples at a low-ish rent.
If Lab policy were implemented, I'd be forced to take it off the rental market, which would reduce my income to breadline level - not to mention removing a good quality, much needed let from people who need it. Round here in rural N. Yorks, small-size decent rentals for singles or young couples are v. scarce.
The RLA conducted a large scale survey which showed that if Lab were to implement the policy, a huge % of rental properties would immediately be taken off the market by landlords. It's a stupid, ill-conceived, not thought-through policy that'll actually increase rents & homelessness. The housing crisis does urgently need addressing of course - but not in a way that'll actually exacerbate it! |
Yeah that policy / idea (edit) sounds crap. Hope Clapham's right. [Post edited 31 Oct 2019 12:55]
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