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This pressure to end the lockdown 08:50 - Apr 27 with 10190 viewsSteve_M

Is it coming from anywhere other than the same right-wing columnists and media pundits who didn't want it in the first place? Opinion polls at the end of last week remained broadly supportive and suggests much of the public isn't expecting an imminent change.

Yes, it is undoubtedly doing economic damage to the country but then tens of thousands of deaths do that too. It's too early and the UK lacks the testing and contact tracing facilities, as yet, to ease it significantly.

I'm not convinced by long-lens pictures which compress people into seemingly larger groups on tabloid front pages.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:55 - Apr 27 with 663 viewssparks

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:51 - Apr 27 by gordon

Genuinely don't understand this post - you were doing everything you could a few weeks ago to discredit, silence or contradict anyone who was trying to point out how badly we were doing.


That is simply untrue.

I was saying that people should base their positions on some sort of evidence and rationality rather than supposition and innuendo, driven (usually) by political inclination. If that is now "silencing", then I despair. No wonder people get called snowflakes- if they cry "I am being oppressed" when someone asks them to support their position by reference to logic or facts.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:57 - Apr 27 with 667 viewsNotSure

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:45 - Apr 27 by r2d2

What a selfish attitude. Its people like you who will prolong the lockdown. Stay in doors. Do as you are told. Id have the army on the streets if it was me. A rifle butt around the back of the head is all some people will understand.


Well it's what they did in China and look at their death rates from Covid 19.

It's about being sensible with this. It is very hard to catch this virus outdoors.
Look at the supermarkets, everyone queues 2m apart outside and then gets close to each other inside. Utterly pointless, you are safer outside!
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:59 - Apr 27 with 654 viewsLord_Lucan

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:55 - Apr 27 by Guthrum

Yes, anger was probably the wrong word. More frustration from those who don't understand why the lockdown is so necessary.

Bear in mind we haven't locked down as tightly as Spain or Italy, plus we have some way to go before surpassing their figures, certainly on a per capita basis.


There are largely unreported scales of disorder in Spain, Italy and France at the moment.

At present our disorder is confined to buying ice creams in parks.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:00 - Apr 27 with 654 viewsfooters

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:57 - Apr 27 by NotSure

Well it's what they did in China and look at their death rates from Covid 19.

It's about being sensible with this. It is very hard to catch this virus outdoors.
Look at the supermarkets, everyone queues 2m apart outside and then gets close to each other inside. Utterly pointless, you are safer outside!


If it's about being sensible and it's harder to catch outside, why are you welcoming outside visitors to your house?

People like you are why we can't have nice things.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:01 - Apr 27 with 649 viewssparks

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:55 - Apr 27 by Guthrum

Yes, anger was probably the wrong word. More frustration from those who don't understand why the lockdown is so necessary.

Bear in mind we haven't locked down as tightly as Spain or Italy, plus we have some way to go before surpassing their figures, certainly on a per capita basis.


In Italy, for instance (the place which was seen as the big disaster) we are about 6000 short. Couple of weeks worth. Their infection rates are coming right down. Ours are not. They were averaging well under 4k more than 2 weeks ago with a clear downward trend. Ours have been hovering at just under the 5k mark for 2 weeks or more- and are showing little sign of dropping. I am pretty sure we will catch and overtake them by the end of May.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:01 - Apr 27 with 653 viewsStokieBlue

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:57 - Apr 27 by NotSure

Well it's what they did in China and look at their death rates from Covid 19.

It's about being sensible with this. It is very hard to catch this virus outdoors.
Look at the supermarkets, everyone queues 2m apart outside and then gets close to each other inside. Utterly pointless, you are safer outside!


Can you stop posting things which are untrue? What if someone actually believes you?

It is not "very hard" to catch the virus outdoors. There are numerous vectors which could affect you. Furthermore if you feel it's easier to catch it indoors then why are you having guests come to your house?

SB

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:02 - Apr 27 with 645 viewsGuthrum

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:46 - Apr 27 by StokieBlue

It shouldn't be though. They have clearly said 3 weeks and then we reassess. They haven't said it might be over then. If they said it was lockdown for 12 weeks without reassessment loads of people would be angry about that as well.

People should be able to comprehend the message that has been given.

If not then perhaps we also need to worry about the state of our education system.

SB


I think it would come down to presentation. If Johnson had said something genuinely Churchillian at the start, he could have placed emphasis on the struggle and how long it is really likely to last.

On your last couple of lines, the vast majority of people apparently can't comprehend arrows on the floor of a supermarket, or they just drift around thinking it doesn't apply to them.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:03 - Apr 27 with 637 viewsGuthrum

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:57 - Apr 27 by NotSure

Well it's what they did in China and look at their death rates from Covid 19.

It's about being sensible with this. It is very hard to catch this virus outdoors.
Look at the supermarkets, everyone queues 2m apart outside and then gets close to each other inside. Utterly pointless, you are safer outside!


Which is why they may close down supermarkets if the numbers don't start reducing soon.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:04 - Apr 27 with 648 viewsitfcjoe


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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:04 - Apr 27 with 628 viewsStokieBlue

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:02 - Apr 27 by Guthrum

I think it would come down to presentation. If Johnson had said something genuinely Churchillian at the start, he could have placed emphasis on the struggle and how long it is really likely to last.

On your last couple of lines, the vast majority of people apparently can't comprehend arrows on the floor of a supermarket, or they just drift around thinking it doesn't apply to them.


If he had gone full Churchillian can you imagine the reaction on here and in parts of the media? He would have been crucified.

I honestly don't think people should be given an "out", the message has been clear on the fact we need a lockdown until told otherwise.

SB

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:10 - Apr 27 with 614 viewshomer_123

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:04 - Apr 27 by itfcjoe



Looking at the numbers of people out at the weekend and the distinct and utter lack of social distancing this doesn't surprise me.

What I can tell you was that it was a mix of two generations.....teenagers and the early twenties and oldies (60/70 plus).

What can you do.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:11 - Apr 27 with 598 viewsgordon

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:55 - Apr 27 by sparks

That is simply untrue.

I was saying that people should base their positions on some sort of evidence and rationality rather than supposition and innuendo, driven (usually) by political inclination. If that is now "silencing", then I despair. No wonder people get called snowflakes- if they cry "I am being oppressed" when someone asks them to support their position by reference to logic or facts.


I'm just genuinely surprised that you've changed your position so much now. It's been apparent for a long time that we are heading for the worst possible outcome with high deaths and a really long lockdown, I had been trying my best (though very unsuccessfully!) to get that across to you in threads two or three weeks ago.
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:12 - Apr 27 with 598 viewsPendejo

Personally happy with the concept of maintaining it until end of May, thereafter it all depends of Government / employer continuing to pay the furlough salary. As long as I can pay my bills I'll follow the Government instructions.

I disagree that death, even if tend of thousands harm the economy. Inactivity definitely harms the economy. Death, though, means spending money; funerals are expensive things but mean business for funeral directors, florists, caterers, probably the off clothes shop as folks get themselves a new outfit or item of clothing. Then there's possible inheritance and associated spending.

In terms of inactivity, just using my own experience, I had in the region of £1,300 more in my account when I was paid on Friday than I would normally expect to see. Whilst theoretically this may be used by the bank for investment purposes it doesn't spread the happiness that spending it would. Lockdown means I have been able to curb spending on frivolous things....

Oh and was due to fly to Colombia tonight so wife could attend her father's grave, he died 23rd Jan and this was the earliest date we could go together.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:13 - Apr 27 with 591 viewssparks

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:11 - Apr 27 by gordon

I'm just genuinely surprised that you've changed your position so much now. It's been apparent for a long time that we are heading for the worst possible outcome with high deaths and a really long lockdown, I had been trying my best (though very unsuccessfully!) to get that across to you in threads two or three weeks ago.


I haven't changed anything.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:18 - Apr 27 with 579 viewsBasuco

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:35 - Apr 27 by gordon

We're just picking up a greater proportion of actual cases as the numbers we're testing increases.


As of yesterday there were 4,463 new cases, 131,764 active cases and 1,559 serious/critical cases. The UK do not have the capacity/are not able to, test NHS workers currently, we have no idea what the spread of Covid19 is in general and even the number of deaths is not very accurate. How can we even think about an end to lock down? All we have to go on is the trend and as long as the method of calculating the above figures does not change, that is the one and only way to see what is going on.
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:22 - Apr 27 with 569 viewsSomethingBlue

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:00 - Apr 27 by itfcjoe

The front page of the Express shows Brighton seafront and the photo isn't even from this weekend - there are cranes up on it which aren't currently there


Yep it's now been thoroughly shown to be an old one. And yet a vast, vast proportion of the population think these newspapers, and the people they act for, are on their side. There almost aren't any words for it.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:22 - Apr 27 with 566 viewsGuthrum

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:01 - Apr 27 by sparks

In Italy, for instance (the place which was seen as the big disaster) we are about 6000 short. Couple of weeks worth. Their infection rates are coming right down. Ours are not. They were averaging well under 4k more than 2 weeks ago with a clear downward trend. Ours have been hovering at just under the 5k mark for 2 weeks or more- and are showing little sign of dropping. I am pretty sure we will catch and overtake them by the end of May.


We are a good two weeks behind them in the progress of the disease. Our official daily hospital positive test figures have been stable for the last two weeks, with maybe a slight downward trend, from around 5,800 to about 4,750 on a rolling five-day average. In that time the daily hospital C-19 positive death rate (again, on a 5-day rolling average) has declined from 891 to 679.

There are signs we are slowly moving in the right direction. But certainly not fast enough for anyone's liking and there is a real danger that the lockdown will actually get tightened further before it is relaxed.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:24 - Apr 27 with 566 viewsNotSure

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:01 - Apr 27 by StokieBlue

Can you stop posting things which are untrue? What if someone actually believes you?

It is not "very hard" to catch the virus outdoors. There are numerous vectors which could affect you. Furthermore if you feel it's easier to catch it indoors then why are you having guests come to your house?

SB


It is "very hard" to catch a respiratory disease outdoors.
Someone has to basically cough / sneeze into your face.
You certainly won't catch it by walking past someone 1.5 metres away on the pavement.

It is very funny how people walk in the road, cross the road or back themselves into a hedge when you walk past them.
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:25 - Apr 27 with 557 viewsgordon

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:18 - Apr 27 by Basuco

As of yesterday there were 4,463 new cases, 131,764 active cases and 1,559 serious/critical cases. The UK do not have the capacity/are not able to, test NHS workers currently, we have no idea what the spread of Covid19 is in general and even the number of deaths is not very accurate. How can we even think about an end to lock down? All we have to go on is the trend and as long as the method of calculating the above figures does not change, that is the one and only way to see what is going on.


The best way to track the progress of the disease is probably patients currently in ICU (I don't know what the figures for that are), rather than reported infections or deaths.

The prevalence of the disease is far greater than reported infections, so the number of positive tests is highly sensitive to the total number of tests carried out.

EDIT - Or, the best way to use the daily test data would be to look at the % of positive tests out of all the tests carried out.

Just quickly, yesterday we reported 4,463 positive tests out of 25,577 tests (17%). Going from the Dept Health & Social Care data, out of all the tests we've carried out so far, 28% have been positive, suggesting that prevalence of the infection in the population has significantly dropped. I'd guess that in early April we were getting our 5,000 positives out of 10 - 12,000 tests.
[Post edited 27 Apr 2020 10:34]
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:26 - Apr 27 with 557 viewssparks

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:24 - Apr 27 by NotSure

It is "very hard" to catch a respiratory disease outdoors.
Someone has to basically cough / sneeze into your face.
You certainly won't catch it by walking past someone 1.5 metres away on the pavement.

It is very funny how people walk in the road, cross the road or back themselves into a hedge when you walk past them.


Your comments are at odds with the research. Please stop it.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:26 - Apr 27 with 555 viewsLord_Lucan

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:22 - Apr 27 by Guthrum

We are a good two weeks behind them in the progress of the disease. Our official daily hospital positive test figures have been stable for the last two weeks, with maybe a slight downward trend, from around 5,800 to about 4,750 on a rolling five-day average. In that time the daily hospital C-19 positive death rate (again, on a 5-day rolling average) has declined from 891 to 679.

There are signs we are slowly moving in the right direction. But certainly not fast enough for anyone's liking and there is a real danger that the lockdown will actually get tightened further before it is relaxed.


Rather than get tighter it just needs to be enforced and people to be told that they are a menace and a danger - and stoopid.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:28 - Apr 27 with 545 viewsNotSure

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:26 - Apr 27 by sparks

Your comments are at odds with the research. Please stop it.


Can you point out this research please.
I'm not doubting you for one second, I'd just like to educate myself.
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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:36 - Apr 27 with 512 viewsGuthrum

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:26 - Apr 27 by Lord_Lucan

Rather than get tighter it just needs to be enforced and people to be told that they are a menace and a danger - and stoopid.


Agree, altho supermarkets have been identified as a weak point. There are too many people going to them too often, getting too close together and handling the same things, mostly without masks or gloves. This is far more of a problem than a few people sitting in parks.

So they close them down to the public and rely on mobilising a massive delivery network (involving the army and Deliveroo/Just Eat personnel), or reduce it to rationing-style food parcel deliveries. Or hand out chits so each household is allowed only one shopping trip per week.

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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:39 - Apr 27 with 506 viewsSWGF

This pressure to end the lockdown on 09:00 - Apr 27 by itfcjoe

The front page of the Express shows Brighton seafront and the photo isn't even from this weekend - there are cranes up on it which aren't currently there



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This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:39 - Apr 27 with 502 viewsGuthrum

This pressure to end the lockdown on 10:24 - Apr 27 by NotSure

It is "very hard" to catch a respiratory disease outdoors.
Someone has to basically cough / sneeze into your face.
You certainly won't catch it by walking past someone 1.5 metres away on the pavement.

It is very funny how people walk in the road, cross the road or back themselves into a hedge when you walk past them.


You will catch it a lot further than 1.5 metres away if downwind, or someone coughing or is puffing hard (e.g. a jogger). We're not talking visible gobbets of spittle, but a very fine mist of tiny droplets.

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