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Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
Oh lord, I know that look Harris keeps giving Pence. It's the look my wife gives me mid argument when I'm in trouble and she has me bang to rights!
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
Why was there a giant Mike Pence on this poor fly's head?
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
I'll tell you why Pete. Because Evangelical Christians are motivated by hatred, and whoever promises to hurt the right people in their eyes gets their vote.
[Post edited 8 Oct 2020 3:41]
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
Pence was patronising to women, and limp, disappointing and flaccid to men.
Harris was factual, analytical, and positive.
Trump's base aren't enthused by Pence. MAGA is purely a Trump thing.
No additional votes gained for the Republicans.
Dems 1 - GOP 0
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
US election megathread on 10:13 - Oct 8 by TRUE_BLUE123
Thought Harris was pretty good. Pence creeps me out.
But boy that fly.
In 2016
The gap between Clinton and Trump was around two points - has been around eight points between Biden and Trump
Neither Trump nor Clinton polled 50%. Biden is now polling 52% plus
It is the latter constant moving ahead by Biden, that suggests the race is over - the only question now being by how many seats, and whether the Democrats can gain control of the Senate.
US election megathread on 11:18 - Oct 8 by HARRY10
In 2016
The gap between Clinton and Trump was around two points - has been around eight points between Biden and Trump
Neither Trump nor Clinton polled 50%. Biden is now polling 52% plus
It is the latter constant moving ahead by Biden, that suggests the race is over - the only question now being by how many seats, and whether the Democrats can gain control of the Senate.
Are you sure about that, I am pretty sure Clinton was ahead by more than 10 points at some stages in the campaigning:
US election megathread on 11:29 - Oct 8 by flimflam
If you think Harris came out of that with any positives then you should take those rose tinted glasses off.
Now tell us why...
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
US election megathread on 03:50 - Oct 8 by SpruceMoose
The SpruceMoose hot take:
Pence was patronising to women, and limp, disappointing and flaccid to men.
Harris was factual, analytical, and positive.
Trump's base aren't enthused by Pence. MAGA is purely a Trump thing.
No additional votes gained for the Republicans.
Dems 1 - GOP 0
0 - 0 would be fine. the clock continues to click down. another day, no banana skins, and remarkably trump looks madder still.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
1
US election megathread on 12:31 - Oct 8 with 3171 views
I've only watched the first hour (will watch the rest later) but from what I've seen I think it was a draw. Pence was far more measured than Trump and gave some decent answers but Harris had far more emotional appeal. Both failed to answer questions and Pence's relationship with the truth was questionable.
Purely in terms terms of energising support, I think the Presidential debate was probably more useful for the GOP - Trump's tactic of disrupting everything was designed to create apathy for the process, and with the enthusiasm gap in his favour, that benefitted him.
However, last night probably benefitted the Democrats more. Whilst Pence at the top of the ticket may be able to win over anti-Trump conservatives, Trump's egocentric leadership style means that that demographic will be hard to bring into their coalition. I don't see more people being motivated to vote Trump after that.
I've only watched the first hour (will watch the rest later) but from what I've seen I think it was a draw. Pence was far more measured than Trump and gave some decent answers but Harris had far more emotional appeal. Both failed to answer questions and Pence's relationship with the truth was questionable.
Purely in terms terms of energising support, I think the Presidential debate was probably more useful for the GOP - Trump's tactic of disrupting everything was designed to create apathy for the process, and with the enthusiasm gap in his favour, that benefitted him.
However, last night probably benefitted the Democrats more. Whilst Pence at the top of the ticket may be able to win over anti-Trump conservatives, Trump's egocentric leadership style means that that demographic will be hard to bring into their coalition. I don't see more people being motivated to vote Trump after that.
US election megathread on 12:31 - Oct 8 by ElderGrizzly
15th October debate has been moved to virtual event
excellent. hopefully they'll mute trump when he's not answering, and he'll just be there soundlessly on the split screen gabbling away to himself. I suspect he'll end up making obscene gestures
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
0
US election megathread on 13:13 - Oct 8 with 3097 views
Not that I think it will make any difference here, Trump is hopefully toast.
SB
I would suggest that it was a one off 'rogue' poll, as is the one giving Biden a point margin.
Where the is important here, is that Biden fas been consistently ahead by around 8 points since around June, as is now increasing that lead. Were the figures to remain at that 8 points Biden would romp home.
That they are actually increasing suggests that Trump has virtually no chance of winning, as he should be narrowing that 8 point lead, not see it increasing. Coming into the final three weeks nothing suggests anything will see him increase his share of the vote.
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US election megathread on 13:15 - Oct 8 with 3087 views
US election megathread on 12:56 - Oct 8 by lowhouseblue
excellent. hopefully they'll mute trump when he's not answering, and he'll just be there soundlessly on the split screen gabbling away to himself. I suspect he'll end up making obscene gestures
Reuters reporting Trump has rejected a virtual debate.
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
The main thing about the debates is that Pence will likely have done little to sway the two of the key demographics of this election - the non-college educated white voters in rust belt states, who Trump needs to come out their droves, and the white suburban voters who have gradually started to distance themselves from Trump over the course of his presidency.
It really depends if Trump is able to gain any votes outside of his base, as if not, those slender margins of victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 will pretty swiftly disappear. The fact that he's campaigning hard in Ohio, a state he won by +8pp in 2016 is damning. Usually, if an incumbent won a state by 8pp in a previous election, that state wouldn't even be competitive four years later.
This Pence and Harris debate was like a Lib Dem convention - some people will talk about it for a few hours but in reality, it'll have very little difference on the political environment.
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US election megathread on 13:17 - Oct 8 with 3085 views
US election megathread on 13:13 - Oct 8 by HARRY10
I would suggest that it was a one off 'rogue' poll, as is the one giving Biden a point margin.
Where the is important here, is that Biden fas been consistently ahead by around 8 points since around June, as is now increasing that lead. Were the figures to remain at that 8 points Biden would romp home.
That they are actually increasing suggests that Trump has virtually no chance of winning, as he should be narrowing that 8 point lead, not see it increasing. Coming into the final three weeks nothing suggests anything will see him increase his share of the vote.
You are probably right on it being rogue but she was certainly ahead by quite a bit at some points. You are also right that the lead moved a lot and narrowed towards the end which isn't happening this time which is hopefully good news.
This is from 538 via the Washington Post.
SB
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US election megathread on 13:19 - Oct 8 with 3081 views
US election megathread on 11:18 - Oct 8 by HARRY10
In 2016
The gap between Clinton and Trump was around two points - has been around eight points between Biden and Trump
Neither Trump nor Clinton polled 50%. Biden is now polling 52% plus
It is the latter constant moving ahead by Biden, that suggests the race is over - the only question now being by how many seats, and whether the Democrats can gain control of the Senate.
Whilst I'd love to think the race is over I'd counter:
Last time the polls closed with Clinton ahead yet Trump won. Shy Trump supporters don't always admit they support him.
Last time Clinton won the popular vote yet Trump still won the electoral college.
IF people think it is over, they are less likely to get out and vote.
CV means those worried about infection are less likely to vote in person.
Whilst Trump is coming across as batsh1t crazy, that was the same 4 years ago.
As uninspiring as Clinton was, I am struggling to see much beyond Biden's main attribute being that he in not Trump. Whether that gets waverers out to vote I don't know.
So whilst I agree it is looking promising for Biden I don't see it as all over by any means.
US election megathread on 13:19 - Oct 8 by bluelagos
Whilst I'd love to think the race is over I'd counter:
Last time the polls closed with Clinton ahead yet Trump won. Shy Trump supporters don't always admit they support him.
Last time Clinton won the popular vote yet Trump still won the electoral college.
IF people think it is over, they are less likely to get out and vote.
CV means those worried about infection are less likely to vote in person.
Whilst Trump is coming across as batsh1t crazy, that was the same 4 years ago.
As uninspiring as Clinton was, I am struggling to see much beyond Biden's main attribute being that he in not Trump. Whether that gets waverers out to vote I don't know.
So whilst I agree it is looking promising for Biden I don't see it as all over by any means.
Pretty much how I see it. Ok, Biden has polled consistently way higher than Clinton did, but it’s far from over. What with Trump now claiming he’s found the miracle cure for Covid as well, that could fool a few swing voters. He’ll pull every trick in the book, legal or not, to hold on to power.
US election megathread on 13:19 - Oct 8 by bluelagos
Whilst I'd love to think the race is over I'd counter:
Last time the polls closed with Clinton ahead yet Trump won. Shy Trump supporters don't always admit they support him.
Last time Clinton won the popular vote yet Trump still won the electoral college.
IF people think it is over, they are less likely to get out and vote.
CV means those worried about infection are less likely to vote in person.
Whilst Trump is coming across as batsh1t crazy, that was the same 4 years ago.
As uninspiring as Clinton was, I am struggling to see much beyond Biden's main attribute being that he in not Trump. Whether that gets waverers out to vote I don't know.
So whilst I agree it is looking promising for Biden I don't see it as all over by any means.
He isn't just Not Trump, he is also Not Clinton. It matters...
US election megathread on 13:24 - Oct 8 by Swansea_Blue
Pretty much how I see it. Ok, Biden has polled consistently way higher than Clinton did, but it’s far from over. What with Trump now claiming he’s found the miracle cure for Covid as well, that could fool a few swing voters. He’ll pull every trick in the book, legal or not, to hold on to power.
Trump has now said he won't debate Biden next week
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