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Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
US election megathread on 20:37 - Oct 9 by ElderGrizzly
Don’t worry, Pompeo is on the big issue.
Clinton’s Presidential bid will be screwed now 🙄
Oh no! Her bid back in 2016 is doomed!
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
Dats my state baby. NY hates Trump. The fact that he is associated with New York is a massive embarrassment. If they get to ruin Trump... Oh my lord they *clap* will *clap* love *clap* it.
Especially as Trump is absolutely insane right now. To recap, over the last few days Trump has claimed that...
* Joe Biden is trying to get rid of all the cows * Joe Biden is going to make all windows smaller so nobody can get any sunlight * California currently has a drought because they gave all their water to fish. * That the Gov. of Virginia executed a baby.
Utter madness. His end is nigh.
[Post edited 10 Oct 2020 1:31]
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
So... Regarding this right wing plot to kidnap and murder the elected governor of Michigan...
Doesn't it amaze y'all that the sheriff of the county in which they reside had this to say?
Q: "Do you have any regrets about being on stage, sharing a stage with a guy who’s now being charged in a plot to kidnap the governor?” asked FOX 17’s Aaron Parseghian.
A: “It’s just a charge, and they say a 'plot to kidnap' and you got to remember that. Are they trying to kidnap? Because a lot of people are angry with the governor, and they want her arrested. So are they trying to arrest or was it a kidnap attempt? Because you can still in Michigan if it's a felony, make a felony arrest,” Leaf said.
How about some citizens attempt to 'arrest' him?
That's a law officer speaking. When will people wake up and realise that law enforcement too frequently ARE the right wing extremists they're supposed to be protecting us from? All this ignorant "but Middle Class White Boys", "but Extinction Rebellion", "but BLM", "but Greta Thunberg" horse shît achieves is to back up these abuses of power.
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
US election megathread on 02:36 - Oct 10 by SpruceMoose
So... Regarding this right wing plot to kidnap and murder the elected governor of Michigan...
Doesn't it amaze y'all that the sheriff of the county in which they reside had this to say?
Q: "Do you have any regrets about being on stage, sharing a stage with a guy who’s now being charged in a plot to kidnap the governor?” asked FOX 17’s Aaron Parseghian.
A: “It’s just a charge, and they say a 'plot to kidnap' and you got to remember that. Are they trying to kidnap? Because a lot of people are angry with the governor, and they want her arrested. So are they trying to arrest or was it a kidnap attempt? Because you can still in Michigan if it's a felony, make a felony arrest,” Leaf said.
How about some citizens attempt to 'arrest' him?
That's a law officer speaking. When will people wake up and realise that law enforcement too frequently ARE the right wing extremists they're supposed to be protecting us from? All this ignorant "but Middle Class White Boys", "but Extinction Rebellion", "but BLM", "but Greta Thunberg" horse shît achieves is to back up these abuses of power.
US election megathread on 01:30 - Oct 10 by SpruceMoose
Dats my state baby. NY hates Trump. The fact that he is associated with New York is a massive embarrassment. If they get to ruin Trump... Oh my lord they *clap* will *clap* love *clap* it.
Especially as Trump is absolutely insane right now. To recap, over the last few days Trump has claimed that...
* Joe Biden is trying to get rid of all the cows * Joe Biden is going to make all windows smaller so nobody can get any sunlight * California currently has a drought because they gave all their water to fish. * That the Gov. of Virginia executed a baby.
Utter madness. His end is nigh.
[Post edited 10 Oct 2020 1:31]
I’ve seen plenty of people online claiming that Trump is going to win New York
Just goes to show the extent of the delusional MAGA cult
Polls are only a snapshot of that time, and in 2016 showed that there was not much in it - in fact Clinton did actually poll more votes as indicated. But they are still an 'indication, not a prediction.
What does seem to come across in reading interviews is that a number picked Trump on the day, whereas in this election the polls have shown a consistent Biden lead Democrat lead throughout all of 2020, with that lead now slowly increasing.
(and yes, I know you are pee taking out of the 'righties)
1
US election megathread on 11:35 - Oct 10 with 1917 views
US election megathread on 10:00 - Oct 10 by HARRY10
One of our great urban myths
Polls are only a snapshot of that time, and in 2016 showed that there was not much in it - in fact Clinton did actually poll more votes as indicated. But they are still an 'indication, not a prediction.
What does seem to come across in reading interviews is that a number picked Trump on the day, whereas in this election the polls have shown a consistent Biden lead Democrat lead throughout all of 2020, with that lead now slowly increasing.
(and yes, I know you are pee taking out of the 'righties)
I don't know how each bit of polling is done. But she also got over 2 million more votes than Trump, so it is hardly inaccurate to say the polling was wrong by asserting she was ahead. She was ahead and she remained ahead.
Easier to argue that the voting system was wrong. 2m+ votes were stolen through gerrymandering and archaic voting systems.
[Post edited 10 Oct 2020 11:37]
Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top.
US election megathread on 11:35 - Oct 10 by Kropotkin123
I don't know how each bit of polling is done. But she also got over 2 million more votes than Trump, so it is hardly inaccurate to say the polling was wrong by asserting she was ahead. She was ahead and she remained ahead.
Easier to argue that the voting system was wrong. 2m+ votes were stolen through gerrymandering and archaic voting systems.
[Post edited 10 Oct 2020 11:37]
It does seem strange that Trump won so many marginal states with a very narrow percentage.
I will have a look up and compare the nearest polls in those states to what the actual vote numbers were
All too convenient
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US election megathread on 13:28 - Oct 10 with 1849 views
US election megathread on 12:27 - Oct 10 by HARRY10
It does seem strange that Trump won so many marginal states with a very narrow percentage.
I will have a look up and compare the nearest polls in those states to what the actual vote numbers were
All too convenient
More confirmation that Trump is not even holding the states that would if won have him finish only 40 seats behind Biden,
As it stands if the polls were the voting figures then Trump would be anything from 100-150 behind. It is looking like a landslide as each new polls comes out
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
GOP internal polling must be a mess if they're freaking out this hard. Unhinged. People happily convinced that they have a silent majority don't act like this.
[Post edited 12 Oct 2020 3:40]
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
US election megathread on 20:37 - Oct 9 by ElderGrizzly
Don’t worry, Pompeo is on the big issue.
Clinton’s Presidential bid will be screwed now 🙄
I presume that Trump is looking for the October surprise. Last time it was Comey announcing an inquiry into Clintons emails in the last week before the election and then promptly closing it - but the damage was done. I'd say it's a bit of a long shot if Trump thinks that Clinton emails are going to impact on Biden or cast enough doubt on the Democrats to swing voters to Trumps side.
This is an interesting CNN analysis of 2016 v 2020 polls in battleground states. It shows that the Comey/Clinton emails may have had a significant effect or was it all down to the pollsters asking the wrong people. It's only 5 mins long and the analysis starts at 2min.
Don't believe a word I say. I'm only kidding. Or am I?
US election megathread on 10:03 - Oct 12 by Oldsmoker
I presume that Trump is looking for the October surprise. Last time it was Comey announcing an inquiry into Clintons emails in the last week before the election and then promptly closing it - but the damage was done. I'd say it's a bit of a long shot if Trump thinks that Clinton emails are going to impact on Biden or cast enough doubt on the Democrats to swing voters to Trumps side.
This is an interesting CNN analysis of 2016 v 2020 polls in battleground states. It shows that the Comey/Clinton emails may have had a significant effect or was it all down to the pollsters asking the wrong people. It's only 5 mins long and the analysis starts at 2min.
Interesting to see the comparison with the 2016 polls. You would hope they've learnt a lot over the last four years having got it so wrong at a state level and this time they're asking the right people, in particular the suburban moms.
My guess the October surprise will be a faked leaked memo into either Biden's health or how the Democrats plan to tax burgers or some such nonsense. By the time it's debunked it will be too late.
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US election megathread on 11:04 - Oct 12 with 1564 views
US election megathread on 10:54 - Oct 12 by Mookamoo
Interesting to see the comparison with the 2016 polls. You would hope they've learnt a lot over the last four years having got it so wrong at a state level and this time they're asking the right people, in particular the suburban moms.
My guess the October surprise will be a faked leaked memo into either Biden's health or how the Democrats plan to tax burgers or some such nonsense. By the time it's debunked it will be too late.
It was a comparison Oct 2016 v Oct 2020. The real thing is the last week. If the polls start to tighten then another 4 years of Trump could still happen. I hope they repeat this each weekend in the run-up to the elections.
Don't believe a word I say. I'm only kidding. Or am I?
US election megathread on 10:03 - Oct 12 by Oldsmoker
I presume that Trump is looking for the October surprise. Last time it was Comey announcing an inquiry into Clintons emails in the last week before the election and then promptly closing it - but the damage was done. I'd say it's a bit of a long shot if Trump thinks that Clinton emails are going to impact on Biden or cast enough doubt on the Democrats to swing voters to Trumps side.
This is an interesting CNN analysis of 2016 v 2020 polls in battleground states. It shows that the Comey/Clinton emails may have had a significant effect or was it all down to the pollsters asking the wrong people. It's only 5 mins long and the analysis starts at 2min.
That's really interesting to see the comparison. It's not over until the fat lady sings. The margins are broadly similar (some larger, some smaller) but if 2016 taught us anything, it that the polls alone this far out aren't a guarantee indicator. Alone being the key word.
US election megathread on 10:54 - Oct 12 by Mookamoo
Interesting to see the comparison with the 2016 polls. You would hope they've learnt a lot over the last four years having got it so wrong at a state level and this time they're asking the right people, in particular the suburban moms.
My guess the October surprise will be a faked leaked memo into either Biden's health or how the Democrats plan to tax burgers or some such nonsense. By the time it's debunked it will be too late.
The point not addressed there is how many states were won by Trump by a very narrow margin............. just enough it would seem. each time
Whereas the over all votes cast in total matched the polls before the election.
It should not take a great deal of thought to equate Russian meddling with certain votes just being enough to win certain states.
So it is not a question of how accurate the polls currently are - but how free the voting was and will be from interference
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US election megathread on 11:39 - Oct 12 with 1529 views
US election megathread on 10:54 - Oct 12 by Mookamoo
Interesting to see the comparison with the 2016 polls. You would hope they've learnt a lot over the last four years having got it so wrong at a state level and this time they're asking the right people, in particular the suburban moms.
My guess the October surprise will be a faked leaked memo into either Biden's health or how the Democrats plan to tax burgers or some such nonsense. By the time it's debunked it will be too late.
Maybe this was his October surprise? He was Superman?
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US election megathread on 11:59 - Oct 12 with 1510 views
US election megathread on 11:24 - Oct 12 by HARRY10
The point not addressed there is how many states were won by Trump by a very narrow margin............. just enough it would seem. each time
Whereas the over all votes cast in total matched the polls before the election.
It should not take a great deal of thought to equate Russian meddling with certain votes just being enough to win certain states.
So it is not a question of how accurate the polls currently are - but how free the voting was and will be from interference
Cambridge Analytica etc are not such an overt threat this time round so maybe how people poll and their actual voting intensions on the day are much more aligned this time. Those in the States I've spoken to are so much more aware of the noise being generated.
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