| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 138304 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 12:09 - Oct 12 with 1697 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread on 11:59 - Oct 12 by Mookamoo |
Cambridge Analytica etc are not such an overt threat this time round so maybe how people poll and their actual voting intensions on the day are much more aligned this time. Those in the States I've spoken to are so much more aware of the noise being generated. |
Whatever went on in 2016 will be hard to pull off again this time.
And to what purpose, other than to try and keep him out of court ?
His time in office has been a total disaster, both home and abroad |  | | |
| US election megathread on 12:14 - Oct 12 with 1694 views | Oldsmoker |
| US election megathread on 11:59 - Oct 12 by Mookamoo |
Cambridge Analytica etc are not such an overt threat this time round so maybe how people poll and their actual voting intensions on the day are much more aligned this time. Those in the States I've spoken to are so much more aware of the noise being generated. |
There is no 3rd candidate such as Jill Stein of the Green party this time around, unless you take Kanye West seriously.
What happened to Kanye West? |  |
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| US election megathread on 12:21 - Oct 12 with 1685 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread on 12:14 - Oct 12 by Oldsmoker |
There is no 3rd candidate such as Jill Stein of the Green party this time around, unless you take Kanye West seriously.
What happened to Kanye West? |
Gone west | | | |
| US election megathread on 12:27 - Oct 12 with 1679 views | Mookamoo |
| US election megathread on 12:14 - Oct 12 by Oldsmoker |
There is no 3rd candidate such as Jill Stein of the Green party this time around, unless you take Kanye West seriously.
What happened to Kanye West? |
Didn't he fail to get on the ballot in some of the states and just gave up? |  | | |
| US election megathread on 15:54 - Oct 13 with 1591 views | Dubtractor |
Whoever is in charge of the music at Chump's rallies is definitely on a wind up.....
They had YMCA playing the other day. |  |
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| US election megathread on 15:59 - Oct 13 with 1581 views | HARRY10 |
| US election megathread on 15:54 - Oct 13 by Dubtractor |
Whoever is in charge of the music at Chump's rallies is definitely on a wind up.....
They had YMCA playing the other day. |
I should imagine all his supporters think the song is
'nacho man'
on account of them all being such fat b'stards | | | |
| US election megathread on 17:18 - Oct 13 with 1545 views | syntaxerror |
Wow |  | | |
| US election megathread on 17:26 - Oct 13 with 1528 views | giant_stow |
| US election megathread on 17:18 - Oct 13 by syntaxerror |
Wow |
Good for him. Hopefully him being a religious man might help some of Trumps evangelicals to see him for what he is. |  |
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| US election megathread on 17:33 - Oct 13 with 1521 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 17:18 - Oct 13 by syntaxerror |
Wow |
Pipe down Romney and stick your 'but both sides' BS where the sun doesn't shine.
Time and again he comes out with these hand wringing words and talk of a pained conscience and then in the next breath acts and votes in a completely opposite manner.
Some of us remember Romney getting busted with his comments dismissing 47% of population of the United States as government-dependent. So I find his 'but both sides' pleas for civility pretty damn hollow. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 17:35 - Oct 13 with 1517 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 17:26 - Oct 13 by giant_stow |
Good for him. Hopefully him being a religious man might help some of Trumps evangelicals to see him for what he is. |
You've nailed it. It's good for him, but only for him. For other people it's more 'but both sides' bollox.
He's just the latest rat leaving the sinking ship, but not completely cutting the life raft free yet, just in case.
He's a Mormon, not an Evangelical Christian so they won't listen to Romney. Anyway, the Evangelicals aren't decent people, they're pretty much an evil extremist organisation in fact. They like Trump because of who he is hurting. They're just as big a cult as his MAGA crowd. [Post edited 13 Oct 2020 17:40]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 17:35 - Oct 13 with 1514 views | Mookamoo |
| US election megathread on 17:18 - Oct 13 by syntaxerror |
Wow |
He can tone it down by using sentence case and losing the red lines. | | | |
| US election megathread on 17:38 - Oct 13 with 1508 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 17:35 - Oct 13 by Mookamoo |
He can tone it down by using sentence case and losing the red lines. |
If he means it he will come out and endorse the one candidate who is making pleas for unity - Joe Biden.
Guess what folks, he doesn't mean it and he won't do it.
It's just moderate PR guff designed to make people think 'hmmm that Romney chap seems a decent sort'. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 18:28 - Oct 13 with 1478 views | Ace_High1 |
| US election megathread on 17:38 - Oct 13 by SpruceMoose |
If he means it he will come out and endorse the one candidate who is making pleas for unity - Joe Biden.
Guess what folks, he doesn't mean it and he won't do it.
It's just moderate PR guff designed to make people think 'hmmm that Romney chap seems a decent sort'. |
I see Trumpy wants to give you all a big kiss today.
A very MACHO man. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 18:30 - Oct 13 with 1478 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 18:28 - Oct 13 by Ace_High1 |
I see Trumpy wants to give you all a big kiss today.
A very MACHO man. |
Given his past trouble with accepting the need for gaining consent prior to physical interactions I feel slightly worried. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 21:47 - Oct 13 with 1411 views | SpruceMoose |
Hmmm... Christopher Columbus eh?
A man looking for India who found the Bahamas by accident, definitely didn't discover America (in fact never set foot in North America), found no gold so instead murdered an enslaved everyone.
In short, a reputation that ignores horrific abuses and failures and celebrates lies. Makes sense that Trump is a fan.
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 21:58 - Oct 13 with 1400 views | SpruceMoose |
Yup. And while that poll is a bit of an outlier, A+ rated polls consistently have Biden up by 10, 11, 12 points.
And as posters in this thread keep repeating, the closer we get to election day the wider the polls are getting. They aren't tightening at all. Pollsters have also incorporated lessons learnt from 2016 polling into their 2020 polling models, there has been far more polling in certain states like Ohio than there was in 2016, and all of the polls actually include an assumed bump towards Trump as the incumbent.
I'd also like to add, if the Republicans had serious polling that showed something to the contrary, do we really think Trump wouldn't be crowing about it and releasing it? I suspect their internal polls are showing that it's even worse than we realise.
*Insert FlimFlam saying "see you on November 4th"/2016 polls were wrong/But her emails" here [Post edited 13 Oct 2020 22:04]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 23:01 - Oct 13 with 1350 views | SpruceMoose |
It's those middle class white boys again - Far-right plotters 'discussed kidnapping Virginia governor Ralph Northam'.
I wonder if this had anything to do with their plan?
When will somebody put a stop to extremists like Greta Thunberg, XR and BLM!?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/13/virginia-governor-ralph-northam- [Post edited 13 Oct 2020 23:03]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 23:45 - Oct 13 with 1325 views | StokieBlue |
| US election megathread on 21:47 - Oct 13 by SpruceMoose |
Hmmm... Christopher Columbus eh?
A man looking for India who found the Bahamas by accident, definitely didn't discover America (in fact never set foot in North America), found no gold so instead murdered an enslaved everyone.
In short, a reputation that ignores horrific abuses and failures and celebrates lies. Makes sense that Trump is a fan.
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I thought the various misdemeanours of Columbus were taught in the US now? I guess that wouldn't bother Trump though.
The Vikings also beat him to it by about 700 years.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| US election megathread on 23:55 - Oct 13 with 1321 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 23:45 - Oct 13 by StokieBlue |
I thought the various misdemeanours of Columbus were taught in the US now? I guess that wouldn't bother Trump though.
The Vikings also beat him to it by about 700 years.
SB |
They certainly are by the NYC Department of Education, but who knows what the Bumitch, Alabama Department of Educayshun teaches. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 00:31 - Oct 14 with 1309 views | HARRY10 |
While the polls are showing a consistent, if small, shift towards Biden it is the marginals where this shift will reallu count.
Increasing the vote share in Biden ceretain states will not increase the number of seats they send to the house,
However it is those marginals, some of which a few months ago were seen as favouring Trump if not certs, are where this election will be decided,
States such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona which should be Republican now look to be as good as Democrat. And their combined total of seats, 86, is a massive chunk out of his 2016 total - with all things else being equal it would see Biden win by a margin of around 100.
And as it stands I cannot see that gap not increasing over the final three weeks | | | |
| US election megathread on 01:02 - Oct 14 with 1296 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 00:31 - Oct 14 by HARRY10 |
While the polls are showing a consistent, if small, shift towards Biden it is the marginals where this shift will reallu count.
Increasing the vote share in Biden ceretain states will not increase the number of seats they send to the house,
However it is those marginals, some of which a few months ago were seen as favouring Trump if not certs, are where this election will be decided,
States such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona which should be Republican now look to be as good as Democrat. And their combined total of seats, 86, is a massive chunk out of his 2016 total - with all things else being equal it would see Biden win by a margin of around 100.
And as it stands I cannot see that gap not increasing over the final three weeks |
It just astounds me how the Democrats in the USA tend to perform when selecting a candidate. I don't think Joe Biden has done a particularly bad job as a whole, but he has a vast range flaws that Trump can pick at to keep the disparity in check.
I think there is a real chance that in four years, both Trump and Biden could have a situation where their health makes them unfit for governance, and the democrats would have done well to have backed a younger candidate who could roll with the punches, but not roll over to them- this is where Obama did particularly well in his campaign against John McCain.
Needless to say, I am terrified how the US (of which I am a citizen) and the UK (of which I am also a citizen) have successfully made it the norm to build a campaign based mostly on slagging of your opponent. Manifestos are become footnotes and the basis of our scrutiny revolves around a cult of personality.
(Off to listen to Judas Priest now) [Post edited 14 Oct 2020 1:03]
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| US election megathread on 03:49 - Oct 14 with 1266 views | SpruceMoose |
| US election megathread on 00:31 - Oct 14 by HARRY10 |
While the polls are showing a consistent, if small, shift towards Biden it is the marginals where this shift will reallu count.
Increasing the vote share in Biden ceretain states will not increase the number of seats they send to the house,
However it is those marginals, some of which a few months ago were seen as favouring Trump if not certs, are where this election will be decided,
States such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona which should be Republican now look to be as good as Democrat. And their combined total of seats, 86, is a massive chunk out of his 2016 total - with all things else being equal it would see Biden win by a margin of around 100.
And as it stands I cannot see that gap not increasing over the final three weeks |
Read this online earlier, gives a good overview of how 2020 polling differs from 2016 polling.
"I suspect the campaign knows that the actual numbers may be worse than even the awful poll numbers are showing, and the key reason for that is the models that pollsters use to predict "likely voters" are based on historical voting trends that may not apply this year.
When pollsters contact people for these surveys, they have to weigh the responses because they're not going to get a representative sample of voters. Each pollster has different models, but essentially most of them weigh those responses based on how groups of people have voted in the past. Historically, citizens that lean right are more likely to vote than citizens that lean lean left, and most models account for that. But whether each group votes at those rates depends on engagement and enthusiasm.
This is kind of what happened in 2016 - polls showed Clinton with a lead in those battleground states, albeit a small one. But because of the email scandals and general lack of enthusiasm for Clinton, compared with a Republican fervor for Trump, the rates of voters in each demographic were different than what most of the models were predicting and Trump ended up winning.
But the fundamentals of that race are completely different than what we're seeing this year. This year the Democratic voter base - which historically votes at a lower rate - is *pissed*. All that talk about "making liberals angry" may be the Republican party shooting itself in the foot. Now liberals are angry and eagerly voting against Trump, and because pollster models usually don't account for voter enthusiasm, models that estimate voter turnout rates may actually be *underselling* the lead that Biden has against Trump." [Post edited 14 Oct 2020 3:57]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 05:12 - Oct 14 with 1236 views | Oldsmoker |
| US election megathread on 03:49 - Oct 14 by SpruceMoose |
Read this online earlier, gives a good overview of how 2020 polling differs from 2016 polling.
"I suspect the campaign knows that the actual numbers may be worse than even the awful poll numbers are showing, and the key reason for that is the models that pollsters use to predict "likely voters" are based on historical voting trends that may not apply this year.
When pollsters contact people for these surveys, they have to weigh the responses because they're not going to get a representative sample of voters. Each pollster has different models, but essentially most of them weigh those responses based on how groups of people have voted in the past. Historically, citizens that lean right are more likely to vote than citizens that lean lean left, and most models account for that. But whether each group votes at those rates depends on engagement and enthusiasm.
This is kind of what happened in 2016 - polls showed Clinton with a lead in those battleground states, albeit a small one. But because of the email scandals and general lack of enthusiasm for Clinton, compared with a Republican fervor for Trump, the rates of voters in each demographic were different than what most of the models were predicting and Trump ended up winning.
But the fundamentals of that race are completely different than what we're seeing this year. This year the Democratic voter base - which historically votes at a lower rate - is *pissed*. All that talk about "making liberals angry" may be the Republican party shooting itself in the foot. Now liberals are angry and eagerly voting against Trump, and because pollster models usually don't account for voter enthusiasm, models that estimate voter turnout rates may actually be *underselling* the lead that Biden has against Trump." [Post edited 14 Oct 2020 3:57]
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I've been watching YouTube vids of CNN, MSNBC, NBC etc. which show these polls and I'm surprised out how they rely on small sample numbers.
You have to pause the vid to see the numbers but they're clearly shown.
Sometimes it's about 500 with a +/- of 5%.
In the UK, it's at least 1000 and sometimes 5000 and we get it wrong a lot of the time.
That said, I agree with your earlier post that Trump would be bragging about his poll numbers if they were close to favourable and he's not. | |
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