By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions. We in turn value your personal details in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
to be honest i do not really understand the situation at the moment but am curious to know wether there is a good chance of a global war breaking out?? could we actually be bombed and have to shelter away etc?? apologies for not understanding the situation but very curious.
Let's hope not. If we could simulate it without actually happening it would be very interesting if, when it came down to it, all nations of NATO actually fulfilled their oath.
I think that, if Putin limits his ambitions to Ukraine, there's probably minimal chance of the matter escalating beyond the regional theatre of conflict.
That would change massively if Putin were to set his sights upon the Baltic States, owing to their membership of NATO and Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. Ukraine's lack of NATO membership and, the lack of Art. 5 protection that would result from such membership is probably one of the deciding factors that gave Putin the bravery to launch the invasion.
This map will give you a bit of an idea as to what Putin can probably get away with, and what would be met with an armed response:
I thought this was Harry10 for a minute and was about to ask if you have had a stroke or something.
Anyway, no, no global war in the old fashioned sense no.
In the spirit of reconciliation and happiness at the end of the Banter Era (RIP) and as a result of promotion I have cleared out my ignore list. Look forwards to reading your posts!
I don't rule it out one day. But I think in this case we'll be ok, unless Vlad decides to attack a NATO country.
Vlad did exactly the same in Crimea and ultimately got it away with it. He knows where the boundary is before he invokes the full wrath of NATO.
Quite. Russia and Putin won't set their sights on a NATO member, they would be absolute toast. Ukraine / Belarus is relatively easy pickings and Putin will very well know to stop there. Doesn't make it any less heartbreaking for the people of Ukraine and the many casulaties that will be felt. Terribly sad.
Quite. Russia and Putin won't set their sights on a NATO member, they would be absolute toast. Ukraine / Belarus is relatively easy pickings and Putin will very well know to stop there. Doesn't make it any less heartbreaking for the people of Ukraine and the many casulaties that will be felt. Terribly sad.
No need to bother with Belarus at the moment; he has his puppet in place.
I thought this was Harry10 for a minute and was about to ask if you have had a stroke or something.
Anyway, no, no global war in the old fashioned sense no.
HARRY10 would have made clear how much of an expert he is on the current situation, before proceeding to make clear how little he understood of the matter, calling everyone righties and abusing people with learning difficulties
Highlighting crass stupidity since sometime around 2010
HARRY10 would have made clear how much of an expert he is on the current situation, before proceeding to make clear how little he understood of the matter, calling everyone righties and abusing people with learning difficulties
I’ve been waiting for his take for ages, I bet it’s to do with the Russians who own the Evening Standard.
In the spirit of reconciliation and happiness at the end of the Banter Era (RIP) and as a result of promotion I have cleared out my ignore list. Look forwards to reading your posts!
I doubt it. But I didn’t think it would get this far either.
That’s the problem with escalation on both sides over the years involving someone as aggressive and old school as Putin and his base. How does he not see escalation as a challenge/threat and how does anyone then de-escalate without being perceived as the loser?
I’d certainly feel a lot better if the US and UK weren’t on the other side of the divide and it was more sensible European voices that were leading the way. We still seem to have a cavalier attitude to foreign interventions and tensions while mainland Europe has good reason to be much more cautious.
Let's hope not. If we could simulate it without actually happening it would be very interesting if, when it came down to it, all nations of NATO actually fulfilled their oath.
Suggest you watch Threads then, if you want the real thing simulated.
I doubt it. But I didn’t think it would get this far either.
That’s the problem with escalation on both sides over the years involving someone as aggressive and old school as Putin and his base. How does he not see escalation as a challenge/threat and how does anyone then de-escalate without being perceived as the loser?
I’d certainly feel a lot better if the US and UK weren’t on the other side of the divide and it was more sensible European voices that were leading the way. We still seem to have a cavalier attitude to foreign interventions and tensions while mainland Europe has good reason to be much more cautious.
'But I didn’t think it would get this far either.'
Really DK?
Given Crimea - what led you to think this wouldn't happen once he amasses troops on the border?
Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Quite. Russia and Putin won't set their sights on a NATO member, they would be absolute toast. Ukraine / Belarus is relatively easy pickings and Putin will very well know to stop there. Doesn't make it any less heartbreaking for the people of Ukraine and the many casulaties that will be felt. Terribly sad.
Would there be though ? If say they fancied Estonia would anyone risk potentially millions of casualties to protect them ? I think not whatever NATO articles say.
Would there be though ? If say they fancied Estonia would anyone risk potentially millions of casualties to protect them ? I think not whatever NATO articles say.
Britain got involved in World War I over Belgium. Ostensibly anyway.
People will die in Ukraine, which is a humanitarian tragedy.
I think we will see some incursions beyond the two "independent regions", but that, ultimately, a peace process will be brokered where Russia moves back from other areas of the Ukraine and "just" occupies them and Crimea. And, critically, the Ukrainian Government agrees to become formally neutral and not join NATO.
Then Putin has all of his strategic objectives met.
All of this will happen reasonably quickly so that sanctions can be switched off in time for the gas taps to be turned back on so that Germany has central heating next winter. Lots more loss of life and further encroachments to new lines inside the "non-disputed" areas of Ukraine, over the next few days, then a ceasefire, then negotiations over the coming weeks.
The above would still be sociopathic levels of manipulation and war-gaming by Putin. Any more than that, an attempt at the permanent occupation of the whole of Ukraine, would risk devastation, financial ruin and loss of Russian lives which would far outweigh any strategic gains. Then we would be into "totally deluded" levels of despotism.
So the answer to your question is contained in the answer to this one: "Do you think Putin is sociopathically cunning, or an absolute maniac?"
I think the whole thing is a calculated strategic move, and that Putin doesn't intend to pay a huge price.
Quite. Russia and Putin won't set their sights on a NATO member, they would be absolute toast. Ukraine / Belarus is relatively easy pickings and Putin will very well know to stop there. Doesn't make it any less heartbreaking for the people of Ukraine and the many casulaties that will be felt. Terribly sad.
So as things escalated could NATO and the West collectively have said that they would treat an invasion of Ukraine as an invasion of a NATO country?
Would there be though ? If say they fancied Estonia would anyone risk potentially millions of casualties to protect them ? I think not whatever NATO articles say.
Nato will protect any country that is in it's pact. They could not afford to let Putin ride roughshod over a Nato member otherwise Nato may just as well not exist. The reason for not allowing military personnel to fight Russia in Ukraine is because Ukraine is not part of Nato and that's something Putin didn't want and as such has invaded the Ukraine to prevent them becoming part of Nato. I don't believe he will venture further than the Ukraine, but that chance cannot be taken.
Would there be though ? If say they fancied Estonia would anyone risk potentially millions of casualties to protect them ? I think not whatever NATO articles say.
I have a feeling they could invade any or all former Soviet republics before the West would even consider anything more than sanctions.
It depends how far Putin wants to take it, remember he had 2 demands 1) Ukraine never join NATO and 2) those Countries which border Russia and are currently part of NATO ie Poland to stop being part of NATO. Obviously NATO countries weren't going to agree to either. He'll have control of Ukraine soon and will put in place a Russian friendly government and therefore no.1 has been achieved, the next big question is will he continue to demand NATO pulls out of the other Countries and if no will he attack those if he does then yes you will have WW3
Would there be though ? If say they fancied Estonia would anyone risk potentially millions of casualties to protect them ? I think not whatever NATO articles say.
Watching BBC apparently the Baltic countries have Russian minorities within them. It’s pretty obvious what happens next.
One way Russia can start on the next phase is cyber stuff. If for example Russia shuts Poland down that way, (as was suggested on CNBC) does that constitute aggression against a NATO country? Not enough to risk a war the west can’t win.
People will die in Ukraine, which is a humanitarian tragedy.
I think we will see some incursions beyond the two "independent regions", but that, ultimately, a peace process will be brokered where Russia moves back from other areas of the Ukraine and "just" occupies them and Crimea. And, critically, the Ukrainian Government agrees to become formally neutral and not join NATO.
Then Putin has all of his strategic objectives met.
All of this will happen reasonably quickly so that sanctions can be switched off in time for the gas taps to be turned back on so that Germany has central heating next winter. Lots more loss of life and further encroachments to new lines inside the "non-disputed" areas of Ukraine, over the next few days, then a ceasefire, then negotiations over the coming weeks.
The above would still be sociopathic levels of manipulation and war-gaming by Putin. Any more than that, an attempt at the permanent occupation of the whole of Ukraine, would risk devastation, financial ruin and loss of Russian lives which would far outweigh any strategic gains. Then we would be into "totally deluded" levels of despotism.
So the answer to your question is contained in the answer to this one: "Do you think Putin is sociopathically cunning, or an absolute maniac?"
I think the whole thing is a calculated strategic move, and that Putin doesn't intend to pay a huge price.
Putin thinks he is untouchable. A dangerous situation when you control the world's biggest nuclear arsenal.
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
