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Turkish president Recip Erdogan seems almost as unlikely a peacemaker as Putin but there may be some fragile grounds for hope from the latest meeting between the two, it almost feels like 'over to you, Zelensky'.
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 17:32 - Sep 20 by Guthrum
The straits are already closed to warships not specifically based in the Black Sea. Closing them to commerce as well is unlikely and would cause as much trouble for Ankara as Moscow.
They become less strategically important with Putin's pivot towards China, too.
Is the Northern Passage going to have an impact on Ukraine's grain exports to Africa though ? Georgia is turning into quite the exporter too. Given that the populations of East and Central African nations are set to rise significantly in the coming decades then Turkey's role as gatekeeper (and as manufacturer from raw materials) is as vital in the Black Sea as Suez is further down the line.
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 17:56 - Sep 20 by WeWereZombies
Is the Northern Passage going to have an impact on Ukraine's grain exports to Africa though ? Georgia is turning into quite the exporter too. Given that the populations of East and Central African nations are set to rise significantly in the coming decades then Turkey's role as gatekeeper (and as manufacturer from raw materials) is as vital in the Black Sea as Suez is further down the line.
Indeed. But the leverage upon Putin in the short term is still very limited. Especially as the Russian president still appears to believe he is winning and will be entirely victorious in the end.
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 17:27 - Sep 20 by WeWereZombies
But, as you say, Georgia is hardly Putin's biggest fan. Ukraine have possibilities (which they can turn into probabilities) of support from the countries closest to them (who also need some form of alliance for their own protection from the great Bear.) Surely better to get the grain exports flowing, the harvest in and next year's planted than live forever in a state of attrition.
Get the harvests going until Putin has reorganised, re-equipped and built up his forces? Do you really think Putin wants peace? That animal doesn’t know the meaning of the word. Bung in Poland, Moldova and the Baltics, demilitarise Finland and tell Sweden they’re on their own and you might get a few years of happy harvest, sunshine and ghastly scenes banished.
Is it worth it? Do we value the sovereignty of a country at all? Maybe we should just accept Putin’s view that Ukraine is not a real country and the people there are inferior potato heads. So what if it’s industrial area is sawn off and given to Russia? Not a real country, it’s a small price. Crimea? Who cares, the Russians nabbed it anyway. Do we trust Putin’s word? He says he wants to end the war. Well if he said it it must be true.
I get the desire to end all this. It’s horrific. But surely the lessons of appeasement are there for all to see from 1939-45. The shame of what the U.K. and France did to Czechoslovakia in 1938 is one of the worst episodes in our 20c and beyond history and the consequences are still felt.
I just don’t think we should repeat it. If Putin wants it over, he knows what to do.
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An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 18:12 - Sep 20 with 1745 views
Stopping Ukraine from joining NATO was Putin's supposed aim of declaring war on them. For peace, I think he'll expect a guarantee that they won't at the very least - that way he can declare that the special miltary mission has been a success. The promise of no western military bases being opened in Ukraine would probably be required as well.
Donbas and Luhansk is more complicated. Perhaps they'll be sated if a guarantee is in place of no western bases and not joining NATO? But even if the physical war ends, the information war will continue in those areas, at least.
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 18:12 - Sep 20 by pointofblue
Stopping Ukraine from joining NATO was Putin's supposed aim of declaring war on them. For peace, I think he'll expect a guarantee that they won't at the very least - that way he can declare that the special miltary mission has been a success. The promise of no western military bases being opened in Ukraine would probably be required as well.
Donbas and Luhansk is more complicated. Perhaps they'll be sated if a guarantee is in place of no western bases and not joining NATO? But even if the physical war ends, the information war will continue in those areas, at least.
It’s a sovereign country. It’s not for Russia to demand anything of Ukraine or anyone else. Tie them up like that, they’re just dinner to be consumed at a later date.
[Post edited 20 Sep 2022 18:41]
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An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 18:40 - Sep 20 with 1688 views
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 18:06 - Sep 20 by Guthrum
Indeed. But the leverage upon Putin in the short term is still very limited. Especially as the Russian president still appears to believe he is winning and will be entirely victorious in the end.
Does he? Seems to be indicating quite the opposite at the moment. Blaming the MoD, taking shots at infrastructure he'd rather keep in place if he was to permanently occupy it. Intelligence showing tactical retreats around Kherson Oblast. Inability to hold Ukraine on the other side of the Oskil river. No tactical response in terms of redeployment. Unable to do anything except wait for Ukrainians next move with their suspected third unit. Desperately trying to recruit a new fourth division from prisoners and the general public. Inability to stand up to the right-wing milbloggers.
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An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 18:44 - Sep 20 by Kropotkin123
Does he? Seems to be indicating quite the opposite at the moment. Blaming the MoD, taking shots at infrastructure he'd rather keep in place if he was to permanently occupy it. Intelligence showing tactical retreats around Kherson Oblast. Inability to hold Ukraine on the other side of the Oskil river. No tactical response in terms of redeployment. Unable to do anything except wait for Ukrainians next move with their suspected third unit. Desperately trying to recruit a new fourth division from prisoners and the general public. Inability to stand up to the right-wing milbloggers.
How much of that is commanders on the ground responding to realities of the situation (or being forced to), rather than the political will behind the entire war?
Comparing with Germany in 1943-45, Hitler and his immediate circle kept demanding no retreats, trying to find ways of hitting back (wunderwaffe), believing right up to the end that a miraculous turn-around was on the cards. But the generals were forced to continually fall back (and, like the Russian ones, were sacked for it). That is a common mindset for authoritarian leaders who surround themselves with cronies and begin to believe their own hype (see also: Saddam Hussein).
Of course Putin wants the war to end quickly. Look at what Erdogan says - “because the way things are going right now are quite problematic." In other words, things are not going to plan for Putin so he wants an end while he’s in front.
No way is now the time for Zekensky to talk peace. It’s time to ram home his advantage as fast and as far as he can. Only if Putin indicates that he’ll pull out of all Ukraine (inc Crimea) should he go to the table.
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 16:31 - Sep 20 by WeWereZombies
AS far Erdogan appears to believe, it is up to Zelensky to talk to Putin. And if it brings an end to a conflict that might go on for another three years and claim thousands of lives then perhaps that is a decent first step. But it is a first step fraught with danger for Ukraine because it brings with it the possibility of recognising Crimea as a Russian republic (or two) and allowing referendums in the Donbas ?
Just think how many lives we could have saved if we'd handed Europe over to Hitler.
We could have enjoyed a brief period of peace whilst Hitler eliminated all his opponents and completed the final solution, whilst rebuilding his military and perfecting the atom bomb without any interference from the USA, as he wouldn't have declared war on them.
In a war of attrition Russia will inevitably lose. Russia v Nato can ever only end one way. It matters little where Putin finds his troops. Untrained ex prisoners etc v extremely high tech US weapons.
Russia has the ability to make low grade ammunition, bullets, shells etc, but most of the fighting is done from afar. Russia's ability to manufacture high tech armaments is dependent upon Nato based Western countries, which has seen Putin trying his luck with North Korea and Iran - technology I am sure the US and NATO are well aware of and able to counteract.
The real question is how long the US wants to string this out for. Long enough for Putin to run out of weaponry, I suspect. Already the battle between Azerbaijan and Armenia has gone to the US for peace talks. Maybe now parts of whats left will be looking to breakaway from Russia.
We live in interesting times, it would see.
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An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 20:41 - Sep 20 with 1561 views
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 16:16 - Sep 20 by J2BLUE
What exactly does Zelensky need to do? Say it's all fine that they've tortured, raped and killed their way into Ukraine and agree to hand over territory?
Wars need to be ended, not won.
Negotiate some kind of ending and then deal with it when people aren't being killed.
Pronouns: He/Him
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An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 20:48 - Sep 20 with 1544 views
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 20:30 - Sep 20 by Cheltenham_Blue
Just think how many lives we could have saved if we'd handed Europe over to Hitler.
We could have enjoyed a brief period of peace whilst Hitler eliminated all his opponents and completed the final solution, whilst rebuilding his military and perfecting the atom bomb without any interference from the USA, as he wouldn't have declared war on them.
Imagine how all that would have ended.
[Post edited 20 Sep 2022 20:33]
Churchills views were based on Roosevelts support.
Germany went to war to secure oil, and then cheap labour. Much as Stalin purged the peasants in the USSR from the land. The factories needed them. As the UK did with the enclosures and the industrial revolution.
Putin needs to be mindful (if he already isn't) how GB and France carved up the oilfields of the Middle East (WW1) and fought to retain them in WW2.
The 'west' has shed few tears over how it has kept control in the Middle East since. I have no doubt that it is the real reason for the war in Ukraine.
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An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 21:04 - Sep 20 with 1515 views
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 20:58 - Sep 20 by HARRY10
Churchills views were based on Roosevelts support.
Germany went to war to secure oil, and then cheap labour. Much as Stalin purged the peasants in the USSR from the land. The factories needed them. As the UK did with the enclosures and the industrial revolution.
Putin needs to be mindful (if he already isn't) how GB and France carved up the oilfields of the Middle East (WW1) and fought to retain them in WW2.
The 'west' has shed few tears over how it has kept control in the Middle East since. I have no doubt that it is the real reason for the war in Ukraine.
OK. Really not sure how you got to that from my post, but yeah, it's err, all to do with the Middle East. ?
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 17:56 - Sep 20 by Eireannach_gorm
Definitely see them attacking the UK and Germany/US.
Russian population lapping this nonsense up.
But that has not been Russia MO either before the fall of the Berlin Wall or after. They will use other nations as proxy adversaries. At the moment it is happening in Ukraine, last decade it was Syria, thirty years ago the former Yugoslavia and back in 1960s and 1970s Vietnam. As has been pointed out elsewhere in this thread, one of Putin's aims is to prevent Ukraine joining NATO; because once they are in the club it is too risky for Russia to face an Allied onslaught.
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 18:06 - Sep 20 by Churchman
Get the harvests going until Putin has reorganised, re-equipped and built up his forces? Do you really think Putin wants peace? That animal doesn’t know the meaning of the word. Bung in Poland, Moldova and the Baltics, demilitarise Finland and tell Sweden they’re on their own and you might get a few years of happy harvest, sunshine and ghastly scenes banished.
Is it worth it? Do we value the sovereignty of a country at all? Maybe we should just accept Putin’s view that Ukraine is not a real country and the people there are inferior potato heads. So what if it’s industrial area is sawn off and given to Russia? Not a real country, it’s a small price. Crimea? Who cares, the Russians nabbed it anyway. Do we trust Putin’s word? He says he wants to end the war. Well if he said it it must be true.
I get the desire to end all this. It’s horrific. But surely the lessons of appeasement are there for all to see from 1939-45. The shame of what the U.K. and France did to Czechoslovakia in 1938 is one of the worst episodes in our 20c and beyond history and the consequences are still felt.
I just don’t think we should repeat it. If Putin wants it over, he knows what to do.
No, I do not think Putin (or any likely successor, in the short term) wants peace until they see threats to their sphere of influence vanquished. Which is not going to happen. Nor is wiping the largest nation on this planet off the map. There is no end game, no final victory, either for the West or for Russia or China. It has been messy for decades and it will continue to be messy for decades - unless there is a nuclear conflagration. So some form of compromise will be necessary in Ukraine, and it will not involve Crimea. In the meantime the rest of the World needs to minimise the damage that is done to hungry nations and to nations that have little in the way of energy reserves. Of course, in the long and not so long term everyone needs to reduce their power consumption and makes as much of it as possible sources from renewables. But as far as this winter is concerned then any damage limitation is welcome, even if the price is a doubtful set of negotiations. As Churchill intimated in his 'Sinews of Peace' lecture, 'better jaw, jaw, jaw than war, war, war'.
An end to the war in Ukraine possible before Christmas ? on 18:35 - Sep 20 by peterleeblue
Christmas. Doesn't sound like it.
The 'Christmas' in my thread header was tongue-in-cheek, a nod to the 1914 optimism that the First World War would all be over by the time the year was out.
Russia are clearly in disarray and thus they might be willing to end the war but I am sure that will include keeping a lost of east Ukraine and Crimea.
As it stands, there is little in it for the Ukraine given the huge gains they are making, war is obviously rubbish but why should they agree to give up large parts of their country?
At the moment it seems more likely that they will be able to drive Russia out of many of the regions they will claim in any end to the war.
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