| FFP 15:00 - Jun 12 with 4353 views | Daninthecampo |
I've just read an EADT article and it says we can make a rolling £61m loss across this upcoming season and the 2 last.
We lost 18.7 in League 1, we didn't spend much on transfers in the champ and obviously lots more tv money, full houses etc, is it likely our losses will be greater last year or similar?
Trying to work out how much we can lose ontop of the 100m plus we'll get for being in the prem to keep ffp happy |  | | |  |
| FFP on 15:08 - Jun 12 with 4006 views | Kievthegreat |
It's not loss in total. Some areas of spending are exempt. The last season in League 1 was only a loss of £12.4m according to FFP (page 4 of the accounts) and the season before only £6.3m (rather than the total loss of £12.6m).
For instance, we clawed back £3.2m for youth development [Post edited 12 Jun 15:09]
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| FFP on 15:11 - Jun 12 with 3950 views | MattinLondon |
Always makes me laugh that the most profitable league in the world that generates billions of pounds every year and yet, most clubs in it are in a mountain of debt. |  | | |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 with 3555 views | ElephantintheRoom |
It’s not FFP losses you have to worry or enthuse about…. It’s what Schwarz has in the spreadsheet and what dividends Marcus Evans and the other anointed shareholders are taking.
I seem to remember the club admitting losses doubled in the Championship. I’m not sure the cowboy owners are too interested in eye-watering losses | |
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| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 with 3550 views | hype313 |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 by ElephantintheRoom |
It’s not FFP losses you have to worry or enthuse about…. It’s what Schwarz has in the spreadsheet and what dividends Marcus Evans and the other anointed shareholders are taking.
I seem to remember the club admitting losses doubled in the Championship. I’m not sure the cowboy owners are too interested in eye-watering losses |
Here he is, the voice of reason. |  |
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| FFP on 16:07 - Jun 12 with 3532 views | Reus30 |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 by ElephantintheRoom |
It’s not FFP losses you have to worry or enthuse about…. It’s what Schwarz has in the spreadsheet and what dividends Marcus Evans and the other anointed shareholders are taking.
I seem to remember the club admitting losses doubled in the Championship. I’m not sure the cowboy owners are too interested in eye-watering losses |
Can you DM me your dealer, because I would like to be as delusional as this post.
Utter tripe. Yet again another thread you have hijacked. Look at me, I am a nob. |  | | |
| FFP on 16:17 - Jun 12 with 3438 views | wkj |
| FFP on 16:07 - Jun 12 by Reus30 |
Can you DM me your dealer, because I would like to be as delusional as this post.
Utter tripe. Yet again another thread you have hijacked. Look at me, I am a nob. |
Don't worry mate, he's just not cottoned on to the fact that football players earn more than £15 a week plus a pack of John Player's Original. Once we start giving oranges out at half time he'll be right again. [Post edited 12 Jun 16:18]
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| FFP on 16:23 - Jun 12 with 3396 views | burnbudgiesburn |
Yes, you can lose 13m per season in the EFL and 35m in the Prem. Hence 2 season of EFL = £26m + £35m = £61m over 3 years
Southampton & Leicester are allowed losses of £83m, and the rest of the teams losses of £105m
We should still comfortably be able to spend £70-80m this season. I certainly hope we don't do a Forest, I don't have their figures for the first season in the prem, but they too had that limit of £61m when they first went up. | | | |
| FFP on 16:24 - Jun 12 with 3379 views | MattinLondon |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 by ElephantintheRoom |
It’s not FFP losses you have to worry or enthuse about…. It’s what Schwarz has in the spreadsheet and what dividends Marcus Evans and the other anointed shareholders are taking.
I seem to remember the club admitting losses doubled in the Championship. I’m not sure the cowboy owners are too interested in eye-watering losses |
You usually talk utter codswallop in the mornings so I’m a bit taken aback by the timing of your post. Has your medication changed? Maybe inform the nurses at your home of this change to your routine and they will be able to run a few tests. | | | |
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| FFP on 16:29 - Jun 12 with 3320 views | Vegtablue |
Ballpark revenue estimation for next season:
£135M + cup competitions + league position bonus (£3.1M for 19th, £6.2M for 18th, £9.3M for 17th etc.).
I predict we earned £11M more last season and reinvested it into wages & fees. Promotion bonuses are believed to be exempt from FFP calculations, so I conservatively suggest a PSR loss allowance of £35M +/- £5M.
I also predict our wage bill will be above £80M. | | | |
| FFP on 16:33 - Jun 12 with 3279 views | Rocky |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 by ElephantintheRoom |
It’s not FFP losses you have to worry or enthuse about…. It’s what Schwarz has in the spreadsheet and what dividends Marcus Evans and the other anointed shareholders are taking.
I seem to remember the club admitting losses doubled in the Championship. I’m not sure the cowboy owners are too interested in eye-watering losses |
Breaking News...
Norwich Zoo are missing an elephant. |  | | |
| FFP on 16:41 - Jun 12 with 3230 views | Vegtablue |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 by ElephantintheRoom |
It’s not FFP losses you have to worry or enthuse about…. It’s what Schwarz has in the spreadsheet and what dividends Marcus Evans and the other anointed shareholders are taking.
I seem to remember the club admitting losses doubled in the Championship. I’m not sure the cowboy owners are too interested in eye-watering losses |
This is the first I've heard of losses doubling in the Championship (or words to similar effect). I suspect you dreamt it. | | | |
| FFP on 16:45 - Jun 12 with 3187 views | _clive_baker_ |
| FFP on 16:29 - Jun 12 by Vegtablue |
Ballpark revenue estimation for next season:
£135M + cup competitions + league position bonus (£3.1M for 19th, £6.2M for 18th, £9.3M for 17th etc.).
I predict we earned £11M more last season and reinvested it into wages & fees. Promotion bonuses are believed to be exempt from FFP calculations, so I conservatively suggest a PSR loss allowance of £35M +/- £5M.
I also predict our wage bill will be above £80M. |
I came to a similar conclusion re. allowable losses for this forthcoming season, somewhere in the region of £30m I would think. Whether we're willing to sail too close to that given the level of correction that would be required in the event of relegation remains to be seen, I would imagine we would remain prudent.
Either way its a significant amount of wiggle room when you consider that's £30m of losses in a year where we'll see revenues in the ball park of £140m. Salaries will obviously increase, both for existing players, staff and management and new additions, but we would have to go some to increase our cost base + player amortisation by 4x to get close to those levels of losses. |  | | |
| FFP on 17:06 - Jun 12 with 3042 views | OldFart71 |
The general consensus is that we will spend up to 100 million on transfers. Don't think of those that may depart like Edmundson and Ladapo we will recoup a great deal of that. It has been said we need Premier League quality players, but I think we do need to take a chance with the best of the Championship. Whether we can get Hutchinson for between 15-20 mill is open to debate although I think Chelsea are pushing it a bit if they think anyone will pay 30 mill based on one good season in the Championship. | | | |
| FFP on 17:22 - Jun 12 with 2963 views | Vegtablue |
| FFP on 16:45 - Jun 12 by _clive_baker_ |
I came to a similar conclusion re. allowable losses for this forthcoming season, somewhere in the region of £30m I would think. Whether we're willing to sail too close to that given the level of correction that would be required in the event of relegation remains to be seen, I would imagine we would remain prudent.
Either way its a significant amount of wiggle room when you consider that's £30m of losses in a year where we'll see revenues in the ball park of £140m. Salaries will obviously increase, both for existing players, staff and management and new additions, but we would have to go some to increase our cost base + player amortisation by 4x to get close to those levels of losses. |
Certainly is and very interesting times ahead, especially in regard to how prudent or aggressive we'll elect to be.
In the 22/23 season when all three promoted clubs survived, wage bills punched in were £100M (Bournemouth), £139M (Fulham), and £145M (Forest). Whether these included substantial survival bonuses I'm not sure, but given one-season-wonders Norwich were relegated in 21/22 with total wages of £118M, the answer is probably not. Net transfer fees committed in that 22/23 season were £45M (Fulham), £70M (Bournemouth), and £165M (Forest). Those fees to be amortised as you say.
Last season I reckon Burnley ate almost all their cake, Luton were very prudent and Sheff Utd in-between. The nature of our ownership suggests prudence or the in-between path for us, but I do wonder if they'll be tempted by the higher success rate of those who have gone big in recent history. | | | |
| FFP on 18:02 - Jun 12 with 2796 views | ArnieM |
| FFP on 15:11 - Jun 12 by MattinLondon |
Always makes me laugh that the most profitable league in the world that generates billions of pounds every year and yet, most clubs in it are in a mountain of debt. |
Says it really doesn’t it. The PL really isn’t all it’s cracked up to be for the majority of the clubs that are in it. However someone, somewhere is making a LOT of obscene money out of it. |  |
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| FFP on 18:04 - Jun 12 with 2790 views | Swansea_Blue |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 by hype313 |
Here he is, the voice of reason. |
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| FFP on 18:05 - Jun 12 with 2770 views | Swansea_Blue |
| FFP on 18:02 - Jun 12 by ArnieM |
Says it really doesn’t it. The PL really isn’t all it’s cracked up to be for the majority of the clubs that are in it. However someone, somewhere is making a LOT of obscene money out of it. |
Yeah, players and agents. The average player salary now is £3.6 million. Oh, and that’s just basic - loads of performance related bonuses on top. I know it’s a short career and we love them, ya do da, but that’s fkn obscene. They only need 1 year to be sorted for life. [Post edited 12 Jun 18:08]
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| FFP on 18:17 - Jun 12 with 2681 views | ArnieM |
| FFP on 18:05 - Jun 12 by Swansea_Blue |
Yeah, players and agents. The average player salary now is £3.6 million. Oh, and that’s just basic - loads of performance related bonuses on top. I know it’s a short career and we love them, ya do da, but that’s fkn obscene. They only need 1 year to be sorted for life. [Post edited 12 Jun 18:08]
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Who has a job for life now anyway? I’ll still watch Town and the game in general but that doesn’t mean I agree with the greed in the game now. It’s got so removed from the average fan it’s ridiculous isn’t it. But things tend to go in cycles so I doubt the present situation can continue indefinitely. | |
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| FFP on 18:30 - Jun 12 with 2622 views | _clive_baker_ |
| FFP on 17:22 - Jun 12 by Vegtablue |
Certainly is and very interesting times ahead, especially in regard to how prudent or aggressive we'll elect to be.
In the 22/23 season when all three promoted clubs survived, wage bills punched in were £100M (Bournemouth), £139M (Fulham), and £145M (Forest). Whether these included substantial survival bonuses I'm not sure, but given one-season-wonders Norwich were relegated in 21/22 with total wages of £118M, the answer is probably not. Net transfer fees committed in that 22/23 season were £45M (Fulham), £70M (Bournemouth), and £165M (Forest). Those fees to be amortised as you say.
Last season I reckon Burnley ate almost all their cake, Luton were very prudent and Sheff Utd in-between. The nature of our ownership suggests prudence or the in-between path for us, but I do wonder if they'll be tempted by the higher success rate of those who have gone big in recent history. |
Yes, certainly going to be interesting. Even if we land on the prudent side we're still talking very big numbers in real terms.
As a thought experiment, L1 Promotion Season per our accounts:
Revenue: £21.8m
Salary Costs (Playing): £12.7m
Salary Costs (Non Playing): £7.1m
Other OPEX: £20.2m
Operating Profit / (Loss): (£18.2m)
Premier League (ballpark estimates) if you work on us having an appetite for similar levels of P&L losses (FFP calcs of course are slightly different):
Revenue: £140m
Salary Costs (Playing): £92m (balancing figure)
Salary Costs (Non Playing): £18m (assumed 150% increase to L1, incl. KM new deal)
Other OPEX: £30m (assumed 50% increase to L1)
Operating Profit / (Loss): (£18.2m)
That's a balancing figure of £92m of player salaries. That's about 50% of what the top 4 clubs reportedly spend, and broadly in line with mid table by way of a premier league wage bills. We certainly wont spend to that level, I think it'll be about half that, which is still somewhere in the region of £500k per week above where we're likely at today. FFP calcs of course are different to P&L losses, and notably include amortisation of player transfer fees which need to be included, but the point remains the headroom we will have available to us to invest in player wages is significant.
The question is not so much what we can spend or do spend, but where we spend it. Recruitment is going to be so key over the next few months. | | | |
| FFP on 18:40 - Jun 12 with 2545 views | RadioOrwell |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 by ElephantintheRoom |
It’s not FFP losses you have to worry or enthuse about…. It’s what Schwarz has in the spreadsheet and what dividends Marcus Evans and the other anointed shareholders are taking.
I seem to remember the club admitting losses doubled in the Championship. I’m not sure the cowboy owners are too interested in eye-watering losses |
The Nightclub is very successful.
The Dancers are broke. |  | | |
| FFP on 19:37 - Jun 12 with 2327 views | Vegtablue |
| FFP on 18:30 - Jun 12 by _clive_baker_ |
Yes, certainly going to be interesting. Even if we land on the prudent side we're still talking very big numbers in real terms.
As a thought experiment, L1 Promotion Season per our accounts:
Revenue: £21.8m
Salary Costs (Playing): £12.7m
Salary Costs (Non Playing): £7.1m
Other OPEX: £20.2m
Operating Profit / (Loss): (£18.2m)
Premier League (ballpark estimates) if you work on us having an appetite for similar levels of P&L losses (FFP calcs of course are slightly different):
Revenue: £140m
Salary Costs (Playing): £92m (balancing figure)
Salary Costs (Non Playing): £18m (assumed 150% increase to L1, incl. KM new deal)
Other OPEX: £30m (assumed 50% increase to L1)
Operating Profit / (Loss): (£18.2m)
That's a balancing figure of £92m of player salaries. That's about 50% of what the top 4 clubs reportedly spend, and broadly in line with mid table by way of a premier league wage bills. We certainly wont spend to that level, I think it'll be about half that, which is still somewhere in the region of £500k per week above where we're likely at today. FFP calcs of course are different to P&L losses, and notably include amortisation of player transfer fees which need to be included, but the point remains the headroom we will have available to us to invest in player wages is significant.
The question is not so much what we can spend or do spend, but where we spend it. Recruitment is going to be so key over the next few months. |
Totally, survival hangs on our ability to find value in the market, even if we spend near our upper limit. And a very helpful breakdown / thought experiment there for the thread. 👍
22/23 wage figures below, courtesy of The Athletic, are made more relevant by last season's results: it's the whole gang again minus Leeds. Did Leicester manage to reduce wages by more than half last season? Will Southampton rebound to 9 figures again, in keeping with most who spend only a season away? And where will we slot in? If propping up the financial table, will it be only just or will we be cut adrift here? Without wishing to overly push against your instincts around spending level, does the McKenna saga signal how competitive we are prepared to be with the bottom third in salaries (convincing him to stay, as much as his pay packet).
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| FFP on 19:46 - Jun 12 with 2272 views | BluePG |
| FFP on 18:05 - Jun 12 by Swansea_Blue |
Yeah, players and agents. The average player salary now is £3.6 million. Oh, and that’s just basic - loads of performance related bonuses on top. I know it’s a short career and we love them, ya do da, but that’s fkn obscene. They only need 1 year to be sorted for life. [Post edited 12 Jun 18:08]
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100% agree. Wages are utterly insane. Williams reported to have been on £65k a week at Manchester United. £3m a year. For a player who wasn’t really anywhere near their first team! | |
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| FFP on 20:04 - Jun 12 with 2181 views | DarkBrandon |
| FFP on 19:46 - Jun 12 by BluePG |
100% agree. Wages are utterly insane. Williams reported to have been on £65k a week at Manchester United. £3m a year. For a player who wasn’t really anywhere near their first team! |
Well, he played 21 times for their first team, including at least one start in the PL.
Wasn’t that far away. Shows how much talent he has |  | | |
| FFP on 20:07 - Jun 12 with 2159 views | _clive_baker_ |
| FFP on 19:37 - Jun 12 by Vegtablue |
Totally, survival hangs on our ability to find value in the market, even if we spend near our upper limit. And a very helpful breakdown / thought experiment there for the thread. 👍
22/23 wage figures below, courtesy of The Athletic, are made more relevant by last season's results: it's the whole gang again minus Leeds. Did Leicester manage to reduce wages by more than half last season? Will Southampton rebound to 9 figures again, in keeping with most who spend only a season away? And where will we slot in? If propping up the financial table, will it be only just or will we be cut adrift here? Without wishing to overly push against your instincts around spending level, does the McKenna saga signal how competitive we are prepared to be with the bottom third in salaries (convincing him to stay, as much as his pay packet).
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Thanks for sharing. Assuming that’s total wage bills which it probably is, the £110m I plugged in above slots in quite sensibly with the bottom 25% of the premier league which you would think is where we’ll have to be, so maybe we will get close to that. It’s over 5x what we definitely spent in L1, and probably somewhere in the region of 3x - 4x what we probably spent last season.
It shouldn’t really come as any surprise that you get what you pay for, but the correlation between expenditure and league position is fairly consistent isn’t it? We bucked the trend last season of course by breaking up the parachute party, but very much an exception with that rather than the rule which is a bit of a sorry indictment of the predictability and largely closed shop nature of upper premier league football. I think it was on the Newcastle United Amazon doc where their leadership team basically presented a graph to the owners that showed annual wage bill vs league position to make that exact point when agreeing budgets.
Agree that finding value in the market is key, both in terms of fees and salaries. It’s what we all know, it’s the model brighton have executed so well that’ll establish a club at that level somewhat sustainably. Can’t help but feel the international market is going to be vital in that in terms of unearthing players with high ceilings at value prices, which isn’t something we’ve demonstrated an ability to do yet. That said I dare say they hadn’t prior to getting up, certainly not to the extent they have since. | | | |
| FFP on 23:01 - Jun 12 with 1747 views | smithy69 |
| FFP on 16:05 - Jun 12 by ElephantintheRoom |
It’s not FFP losses you have to worry or enthuse about…. It’s what Schwarz has in the spreadsheet and what dividends Marcus Evans and the other anointed shareholders are taking.
I seem to remember the club admitting losses doubled in the Championship. I’m not sure the cowboy owners are too interested in eye-watering losses |
This must be a wind up lol | | | |
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