| Reform next? 09:34 - Sep 24 with 9430 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Off to check the odds....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/23/the-writing-is-on-already-the-wall-f
"Nearly one in four 2019 Conservative voters switched to Reform compared with just one in eight who backed Labour.
As a result, Labour won just 35 per cent of the vote – in an election where only three in five voted. Never before has a party won an overall majority with so low a share of the vote. Consequently, the pool of voters willing to give it the benefit of the doubt is unusually small."
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| Reform next? on 11:54 - Sep 24 with 1711 views | positivity |
| Reform next? on 11:43 - Sep 24 by Blueschev |
I'd say it is far too soon to read much in to polls. I think that the huge turnaround between 2019 and 2024 in terms of seats does show that future elections are far less predictable than in the past, so it will be interesting to see how the next 5 years pans out.
Unfortunately the world seems to have taken a rightward shift, due in no small part to the sheer volume of right wing nonsense spewing from both legacy and social media. I'd like to believe that the UK election has bucked that trend, but if you break down the numbers they show a far more fragile position than at first glance (in my opinion). [Post edited 24 Sep 2024 11:44]
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ukip+tories got 45.6% in 2019, reform+tories got 38% in 2024, so definitely a shift there, whether it continues is a different question |  |
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| Reform next? on 11:55 - Sep 24 with 1710 views | Guthrum |
| Reform next? on 10:55 - Sep 24 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Yes government or at least part of a coalition. |
Rather too much of a leap from 14% (in a low-turnout election) to the approximate 35% minimum to gain enough seats to even be in the running to form a government. Or even to be meaningful in coalition-building.
Quite a number of former Conservative voters may have switched in 2024, but at most that's half the number who remained with the Tories*. Reform aren't going to attract the remainder without becoming more moderate. As many 2019 Conservative voters abstained (or switched to other parties) as went to Reform. That doesn't suggest they have a lot of latent popularity still waiting to be tapped.
* UKIP in 2019 0.64m votes, Reform in 2024 4.1m votes, Conservatives in 2024 6.8m votes. |  |
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| Reform next? on 12:43 - Sep 24 with 1639 views | WestStanderLaLaLa |
| Reform next? on 10:05 - Sep 24 by Blueschev |
I would be amazed if Starmer wins three terms. There's very little enthusiasm for the government and the press are already going to town on Labour. The Tories have a history of putting survival above all else, they'll do a deal with Farage before the next election to solve the problem. |
Would that be the right leaning press? In addition to the pay by mile nonsense there has been a lot made of the Telegraph article headline Pubs could be forced to shut early despite the article including
A Department for Health spokesman said: “It is categorically untrue that the Government is considering changing alcohol licensing hours.” |  |
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| Reform next? on 13:00 - Sep 24 with 1605 views | mutters |
| Reform next? on 11:52 - Sep 24 by Lord_Lucan |
I think they will soon realise that being in government is a lot harder than being in opposition.
Finding ways to fix things (and getting the notions approved) is a lot harder than shouting abuse from the sidelines.
Running a business has its problems, running a nation, I would imagine, is off the scale. |
Spot on. Sunak has performed better from the dispatch box as the leader of the opposition than being Prime Minister!
I don't envy their task, there is a lot to do, however, it feels like they need to take the country on a journey, and give the country a vision, and a hopeful future, at the moment it is just doom and gloom. I get we are not in a good place, and things need to be fixed, but the woe-is-me approach about how everything is fooked will wear thin very quickly. They knew it was going to be hard, they knew to a degree how difficult the job was going to be but they wanted to do it. People want hope, I am still waiting to hear that from our great leader. There still is time, but they need to start painting a brighter future. |  |
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| Reform next? on 13:28 - Sep 24 with 1556 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Reform next? on 10:53 - Sep 24 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It was linked from the Guardian.
Calm down Dolly it's just a question. |
I'm pretty calm thanks, and probably a lot calmer than you going by your daily Labour-blubs.
I can't see any reference to the Guardian in your link. It's definitely a Telegraph article. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Reform next? on 13:31 - Sep 24 with 1549 views | Benters |
That’s exactly how my household voted this time. |  |
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| Reform next? on 13:35 - Sep 24 with 1538 views | Zapers |
| Reform next? on 13:31 - Sep 24 by Benters |
That’s exactly how my household voted this time. |
Good man, that's probably who I would have voted for, if I lived in the UK. | | | |
| Reform next? on 13:57 - Sep 24 with 1492 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Reform next? on 10:18 - Sep 24 by homer_123 |
There's very little enthusiasm for the government - really?
Have to say, I'm not sure that's the case. |
I didn't vote Labour but recognise they are, so far, doing a pretty good job in almost every area.
The ridiculous noise over Starmer's suits / glasses / football tickets etc are just a bit of right wing media rubbish. Even on a 5live phone in on the economy, Reeves' clothes issue was dragged in by the presenter.
£35m saved on cancelling Sunak's personal helicopter. That is still a far bigger story. | | | |
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| Reform next? on 14:06 - Sep 24 with 1456 views | MattinLondon |
| Reform next? on 13:35 - Sep 24 by Zapers |
Good man, that's probably who I would have voted for, if I lived in the UK. |
So a party whose leader likes to bash immigrants would get your vote? As an immigrant yourself would you feel comfortable with that in whatever country you’re in? |  | | |
| Reform next? on 14:11 - Sep 24 with 1434 views | Blueschev |
| Reform next? on 12:43 - Sep 24 by WestStanderLaLaLa |
Would that be the right leaning press? In addition to the pay by mile nonsense there has been a lot made of the Telegraph article headline Pubs could be forced to shut early despite the article including
A Department for Health spokesman said: “It is categorically untrue that the Government is considering changing alcohol licensing hours.” |
I agree the bulk of what the right wing press report about labour is utter nonsense, though it does resonate and that's a problem. My family for example are convinced that Starmer is some rampant Marxist, that he was directly at fault for the lack of prosecution of Jimmy Saville, that he was also partying it up during lockdown etc. The list goes on. It's always an uphill struggle for Labour when it comes to the press.
I think people are struggling with the point I've been trying to make on this thread, that the Labour lead is more fragile than it first appears. |  | | |
| Reform next? on 14:26 - Sep 24 with 1392 views | Zapers |
| Reform next? on 14:06 - Sep 24 by MattinLondon |
So a party whose leader likes to bash immigrants would get your vote? As an immigrant yourself would you feel comfortable with that in whatever country you’re in? |
Yes, because I’m not illegal. | | | |
| Reform next? on 14:30 - Sep 24 with 1369 views | MattinLondon |
| Reform next? on 14:26 - Sep 24 by Zapers |
Yes, because I’m not illegal. |
Yeah, cos all of the hate that Farage spurts only affects illegals. | | | |
| Reform next? on 15:09 - Sep 24 with 1308 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Reform next? on 11:52 - Sep 24 by Lord_Lucan |
I think they will soon realise that being in government is a lot harder than being in opposition.
Finding ways to fix things (and getting the notions approved) is a lot harder than shouting abuse from the sidelines.
Running a business has its problems, running a nation, I would imagine, is off the scale. |
With the additional burden of having to recoup the money the Tory's syphoned off to their cronies.
Cleaning up other people's mess is neither fashionable or popular that's why Reform will never look to be in government. Disruption is a lot easier than construction. |  | | |
| Reform next? on 15:45 - Sep 24 with 1263 views | Zapers |
| Reform next? on 14:30 - Sep 24 by MattinLondon |
Yeah, cos all of the hate that Farage spurts only affects illegals. |
Well you better hope that starmer does a better job of stopping all the illegals, otherwise Farage is just going to become more popular. | | | |
| Reform next? on 15:46 - Sep 24 with 1257 views | Blueschev |
| Reform next? on 15:45 - Sep 24 by Zapers |
Well you better hope that starmer does a better job of stopping all the illegals, otherwise Farage is just going to become more popular. |
How many "illegals" are there currently? | | | |
| Reform next? on 15:54 - Sep 24 with 1236 views | Zapers |
| Reform next? on 15:46 - Sep 24 by Blueschev |
How many "illegals" are there currently? |
Focus on the word “illegal”
That might be a clue. | | | |
| Reform next? on 16:00 - Sep 24 with 1213 views | positivity |
| Reform next? on 15:45 - Sep 24 by Zapers |
Well you better hope that starmer does a better job of stopping all the illegals, otherwise Farage is just going to become more popular. |
it's not "illegals" that nige is bothered about, or tweets about, or dog-whistles about. focus on the word immigrant | |
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| Reform next? on 16:00 - Sep 24 with 1208 views | Blueschev |
| Reform next? on 15:54 - Sep 24 by Zapers |
Focus on the word “illegal”
That might be a clue. |
It's a cryptic clue if it is. If you're so concerned about "illegals" and you don't know how many there are, how will you gauge how well the government is tackling the issue? | | | |
| Reform next? on 16:25 - Sep 24 with 1168 views | MattinLondon |
| Reform next? on 15:45 - Sep 24 by Zapers |
Well you better hope that starmer does a better job of stopping all the illegals, otherwise Farage is just going to become more popular. |
Hate Preacher Farage isn’t bothered about whether the boats are stopped or whether illegal immigration plummets. He’ll simply make stuff up, make people angry and watch the mess from America (or from wherever pays for his expenses).
And his band of little Englanders Will lap it up. | | | |
| Reform next? on 16:29 - Sep 24 with 1155 views | mutters |
| Reform next? on 15:46 - Sep 24 by Blueschev |
How many "illegals" are there currently? |
I just went to the local bird sanctuary. Currently, there are two but they are hoping that they will recover and be able to be released soon | |
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| Reform next? on 18:25 - Sep 24 with 1064 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Reform next? on 16:00 - Sep 24 by positivity |
it's not "illegals" that nige is bothered about, or tweets about, or dog-whistles about. focus on the word immigrant |
Or representing his constituents, apparently. He’s voted once since the King’s speech debate on the day Parliament opened (and that must have been early on, as he missed most of the debate to fly to Trump’s side). My MP has voted 9 times in the same time.
Anyone who things this bloke is the answer and would do a good job needs their head tested. |  |
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| Reform next? on 19:42 - Sep 24 with 1001 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Reform next? on 10:34 - Sep 24 by Blueschev |
It's not comparable to a football match at all because there were multiple teams on the metaphorical pitch. Were there only Labour and Tory on the ballot I would expect the result to have been much closer.
Look, Labour won with a big majority and we finally got rid of the worst government of all time. That's great. But don't be so naïve as to believe that said majority was a reflection of huge enthusiasm for Labour. |
Wouldn't it be fair to say that the majority of LibDem and Green voters would be more likely to lean towards Labour than the Conservatives? That would mean that in "normal" times the vote to the left of the Tories is split 3 ways while that to the right of Labour is not normally particularly split at all. Instead, this time the vote to the left of the Tories remained split 3 ways but that to the right of Labour got split 2 ways.
The only really fair representative way to assess the popularity of each party at the ballot box would involve reforming our electoral system.
That said, the general disenfranchisement and lack of engagement with the political process is a worry too. |  |
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| Reform next? on 19:52 - Sep 24 with 983 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Reform next? on 15:45 - Sep 24 by Zapers |
Well you better hope that starmer does a better job of stopping all the illegals, otherwise Farage is just going to become more popular. |
Why do you think the numbers have not gone down in the last 14 years? Could it be because if they actually did something to deal with the supposed problem, they wouldn't be able to continue to stir up the xenophobic hatred to win votes? | |
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| Reform next? on 21:51 - Sep 24 with 932 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
An article that says that pollsters are kicking their wounds after over-estimating the Labour vote after THAT General Election can only be seen as a hit-job.
Ah yes, the opinion polls. That really was the story of that night, wasn't it? | | | |
| Reform next? on 23:00 - Sep 24 with 867 views | reusersfreekicks |
| Reform next? on 14:26 - Sep 24 by Zapers |
Yes, because I’m not illegal. |
What rubbish. Reform bash all immigrants like you. |  | | |
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