| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? 09:00 - Sep 25 with 5317 views | tractorboy1978 |
Points needed to stay up:
23/24 - 27
22/23 - 35
21/22 - 36
20/21 - 29
19/20 - 35
For comparison going back further:
00/01 - 35
01/02 - 37
02/03 - 43
03/04 - 34
04/05 - 34
Average for the 5 most recent seasons is 32.4 points. Average of the earlier 5 seasons is 36.6 points but that is skewed by a particularly high total in 02/03. Generally speaking, 35 points is enough to keep you up in 7 of the seasons above. You could argue it has become marginally harder but not sure it is the kind of huge swing a lot want to make out. It has always been hard to stay up as a newly promoted team. |  | | |  |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:05 - Sep 25 with 4115 views | JimmyJazz |
Fully expect at least 2 of the promoted teams to go down this season, mainly due to most other PL clubs being rather established and therefore able to reach the 30-35 point mark. |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:09 - Sep 25 with 4084 views | tonybied |
Doesn't that kind of prove that the gap IS getting bigger? As the teams near the relegation zone are struggling to match earlier years points totals due to the fact they are weaker in comparison to stronger settled Premier League teams. |  | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:23 - Sep 25 with 4018 views | bournemouthblue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:05 - Sep 25 by JimmyJazz |
Fully expect at least 2 of the promoted teams to go down this season, mainly due to most other PL clubs being rather established and therefore able to reach the 30-35 point mark. |
That's danger of 3 promoted sides coming straight back down, it just means you have 17 other sides with an extra season of that PL money to reinforce
We also had the two relegated sides going straight back up so they haven't even been without PL money for that long either |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:26 - Sep 25 with 3987 views | JimmyJazz |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:23 - Sep 25 by bournemouthblue |
That's danger of 3 promoted sides coming straight back down, it just means you have 17 other sides with an extra season of that PL money to reinforce
We also had the two relegated sides going straight back up so they haven't even been without PL money for that long either |
Indeed, I wanted to leave a little optimism that we could survive, either by our own achievements or one established PL club having a disaster | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:33 - Sep 25 with 3951 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:09 - Sep 25 by tonybied |
Doesn't that kind of prove that the gap IS getting bigger? As the teams near the relegation zone are struggling to match earlier years points totals due to the fact they are weaker in comparison to stronger settled Premier League teams. |
It's not at all stark though is it? You've basically got 3 'outlier' seasons in those 10 and the remaining 7 seasons are all between 34-37 points. | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:34 - Sep 25 with 3938 views | gainsboroughblue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:23 - Sep 25 by bournemouthblue |
That's danger of 3 promoted sides coming straight back down, it just means you have 17 other sides with an extra season of that PL money to reinforce
We also had the two relegated sides going straight back up so they haven't even been without PL money for that long either |
Not to mention, the three relegated sides last season were the three who had just gone up. |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:37 - Sep 25 with 3912 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:33 - Sep 25 by tractorboy1978 |
It's not at all stark though is it? You've basically got 3 'outlier' seasons in those 10 and the remaining 7 seasons are all between 34-37 points. |
The two highest totals are both in the seasons 20+ years ago though, and the two lowest in the last 5
I don’t think 40% of cases can really be considered outliers tbh - to me I would say that evidences the gap IS getting bigger |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:02 - Sep 25 with 3764 views | BseaBlue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:09 - Sep 25 by tonybied |
Doesn't that kind of prove that the gap IS getting bigger? As the teams near the relegation zone are struggling to match earlier years points totals due to the fact they are weaker in comparison to stronger settled Premier League teams. |
I think you are right here. Having different financial rules in the EFL and the Premier league is one of the biggest contributers. The teams with parachute payments already have an advantage, plus more saleable assets to invest in a promotion push. They then get back up but don't have enough about them to get the squad to the quality required.
It would be interesting to see what impact it would have on the gap if no such rules existed. I could see one of 2 scenarios. 1) The big six just blow everyone out of the water making it more of a closed shop. 2) Some of the clubs that come up go a bit mental and invest to a level where they can become more competitive. |  | | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:25 - Sep 25 with 3671 views | BloomBlue |
So basically play 11 in defence and draw every game 0-0 and you avoid relegation?
Unless 02/03 repeats |  | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:35 - Sep 25 with 3622 views | Europablue |
Last year is really fresh in people's minds, so that definitely skews perception. By my estimation there are about 30 clubs whose fans would expect them to be in the Premier League, but there don't look like there are very obvious candidates for relegation outside of the promoted sides.
The answer is that sides like Leicester and Southampton who had been solid Premier League teams and had one bad season are the types of clubs that could be relegated, so we are looking to finish above the two other promoted sides and one of Forest and any team currently below them in the table barring Man Utd. and Tottenham. | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:40 - Sep 25 with 3601 views | Europablue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:26 - Sep 25 by JimmyJazz |
Indeed, I wanted to leave a little optimism that we could survive, either by our own achievements or one established PL club having a disaster |
I expect that when Everton's takeover is completed, they will pick up some wins and shoot up the table. West Ham, Wolves, and Bournemouth look like the sides that could have disaster seasons. | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:42 - Sep 25 with 3602 views | Samuelowen88 |
I did look at this a few weeks ago,
Points for Safety by Samuelowen88 22 Aug 2024 18:19Early I know but had a look at the last 10 years.
These are the points that would have seen you safe (18th + 1pt)
23/24 27
22/23 35
21/22 36
20/21 29
19/20 35
18/19 35
17/18 34
16/17 35
15/16 38
14/15 36
Average : 35
Lowest: 27
Highest: 38
35pts is 0.92 ppg
Not really sure where I'm going with this but thought it woth posting.
But last 10 seasons, points for safety:
Average : 35
Lowest: 27
Highest: 38
35pts is 0.92 ppg
An 11 point difference in safety is huge, so no knowing where it is going to be this year.
Currently on 0.6ppg but earlydays so cant really read too much into this. |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:02 - Sep 25 with 3513 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:42 - Sep 25 by Samuelowen88 |
I did look at this a few weeks ago,
Points for Safety by Samuelowen88 22 Aug 2024 18:19Early I know but had a look at the last 10 years.
These are the points that would have seen you safe (18th + 1pt)
23/24 27
22/23 35
21/22 36
20/21 29
19/20 35
18/19 35
17/18 34
16/17 35
15/16 38
14/15 36
Average : 35
Lowest: 27
Highest: 38
35pts is 0.92 ppg
Not really sure where I'm going with this but thought it woth posting.
But last 10 seasons, points for safety:
Average : 35
Lowest: 27
Highest: 38
35pts is 0.92 ppg
An 11 point difference in safety is huge, so no knowing where it is going to be this year.
Currently on 0.6ppg but earlydays so cant really read too much into this. |
On the current position, I was wondering if the current totals were tracking low however looking at the last 5 years it’s been fairly common for the bottom 3 to be on 1 point or less after 5 games, and highest total was 3. So definitely too early to gauge how high it may be | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:03 - Sep 25 with 3514 views | Nutkins_Return |
The teams are all so strong and so well coached now. The likes of Fulham, Brighton etc are teams that could compete in Europe and so hard to take points off. The standard in the prem is exceptional now.
Look at the money we've spent and quality of players brought in just to try and compete. We are having to fight so hard for every point. Can't remember it being like this a decade ago to be honest. It was always hard for clubs without the resources or money but you could come up in previous years with the right resources and finish quite high up. Don't see that happening again for a while. | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:06 - Sep 25 with 3470 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 09:34 - Sep 25 by gainsboroughblue |
Not to mention, the three relegated sides last season were the three who had just gone up. |
That isn’t true. |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:17 - Sep 25 with 3427 views | JimmyJazz |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:06 - Sep 25 by Pinewoodblue |
That isn’t true. |
Luton, Burnley and Sheff Utd???
Are you thinking of a different season? | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:26 - Sep 25 with 3383 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:03 - Sep 25 by Nutkins_Return |
The teams are all so strong and so well coached now. The likes of Fulham, Brighton etc are teams that could compete in Europe and so hard to take points off. The standard in the prem is exceptional now.
Look at the money we've spent and quality of players brought in just to try and compete. We are having to fight so hard for every point. Can't remember it being like this a decade ago to be honest. It was always hard for clubs without the resources or money but you could come up in previous years with the right resources and finish quite high up. Don't see that happening again for a while. |
Also we've spent £100m+ and hardly brought any Prem experience in.
Shows how tough the transfer market is!! |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:39 - Sep 25 with 3336 views | saxon |
How does it look if you do number of promoted teams which were relegated again in their first season? | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:45 - Sep 25 with 3309 views | BseaBlue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:26 - Sep 25 by Marshalls_Mullet |
Also we've spent £100m+ and hardly brought any Prem experience in.
Shows how tough the transfer market is!! |
Excellent point. I'd imagine a huge stumbling block for us is being able to offer competitive wages due to PSR rules. I get the feeling we may have gone really big if that wasn't an issue. | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 12:08 - Sep 25 with 3217 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Probably. But as you may have noticed its very in vogue to buy and borrow and entirely new team and then wonder why winning is a bit of a struggle.
So I suspect the gap is if anything a bit narrower between the demoralised no-hopers and the bright-eyed and bushy tailed promoted teams… but the promoted teams no longer get a chance. | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 12:17 - Sep 25 with 3183 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:39 - Sep 25 by saxon |
How does it look if you do number of promoted teams which were relegated again in their first season? |
In 31 seasons, all 3 promoted teams have only been relegated twice - 97/98 and 23/24.
At least 1 promoted team has been relegated in all but 4 of the 31 seasons - these were 01/02, 11/12, 17/18 and interestingly 22/23! | | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 12:20 - Sep 25 with 3162 views | StNeotsBlue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:25 - Sep 25 by BloomBlue |
So basically play 11 in defence and draw every game 0-0 and you avoid relegation?
Unless 02/03 repeats |
We tried that tactic in 94/95, it failed badly. |  | | |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 12:23 - Sep 25 with 3134 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 11:17 - Sep 25 by JimmyJazz |
Luton, Burnley and Sheff Utd???
Are you thinking of a different season? |
My bad….I’m a year adrift. | |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 12:55 - Sep 25 with 3012 views | ITFC_Forever |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 10:40 - Sep 25 by Europablue |
I expect that when Everton's takeover is completed, they will pick up some wins and shoot up the table. West Ham, Wolves, and Bournemouth look like the sides that could have disaster seasons. |
Everton are still stuck with the same squad until January, so any takeover won’t have much impact until the transfer window, unless they sack Dyche and get a new manager bounce. |  |
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| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 13:11 - Sep 25 with 2955 views | Europablue |
| Is it a myth that the gap is getting bigger in the PL? on 12:55 - Sep 25 by ITFC_Forever |
Everton are still stuck with the same squad until January, so any takeover won’t have much impact until the transfer window, unless they sack Dyche and get a new manager bounce. |
I just think that the uncertainty around the club is incredibly destabilizing. Everton have been getting in good situations in matches, but not finishing the job. So it's not a case of trying to find goals out of nowhere. It is just showing a bit more composure and grit, and I think Dyche can manage that without the constant distraction of the takeover on the horizon but never coming together. | | | |
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