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So at last the UK has a chance for a proper Brexit as was promised and never delivered by a bunch of successive UK P.M's ..... Trump is basically saying we'll give you some huge trade deals, we wont apply any Tariffs to you - the rest of the EU gets hit next week.... so break ties with the EU properly (because lets face it we haven't) remember who your only "true" friend has ever been - and Propser - but oh no watch the UK and Starmer screw this one up and all the EU lefties and liberals come out of the woodwork ... who incidentally should understand there will be no EU within 3 years - watch the UK snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...........
Alternatively we could've not compromised our relationship with the worlds largest single market that's on our doorstep and with which we do nearly 50% of our total trade, in favour of a market we do about 15% of our trade with that's run by a bunch of absolute lunatics.
Also can't help but feel the balance of power doesn't sit with us in any trade deal with US. At what cost?
The long term direction of this is the United States of Europe IF Trump is followed by more of his type. Even if he isn't, I doubt the EU is going anywhere. Maybe 1-2 like Hungary will be replaced with others.
It seems to me that there are four things going on here.
1. Trump likes the UK and the royalty because his mother was Scottish. 2. The US doesn't have a trade imbalance with the UK. 3. The US does have a trade imbalance with the EU. 4. Trump sees the EU (just like China) as an economic rival because of its size.
The upshot may be that the UK doesn't suffers any increased tariffs or lesser tariffs than the EU. Whether this would be the case if the UK were still part of the UK is difficult to say because that might make Trump more favourable to the EU.
But who knows how it will all pan out.
I might add that talk of imposing tariffs because of VAT is a complete nonsense because VAT is a purchase tax not a tariff.
Please note: prior to hitting the post button, I've double checked for anything that could be construed as "Anti Semitic" and to the best of my knowledge it isn't. Anything deemed to be of a Xenophobic nature is therefore purely accidental or down to your own misconstruing.
It seems to me that there are four things going on here.
1. Trump likes the UK and the royalty because his mother was Scottish. 2. The US doesn't have a trade imbalance with the UK. 3. The US does have a trade imbalance with the EU. 4. Trump sees the EU (just like China) as an economic rival because of its size.
The upshot may be that the UK doesn't suffers any increased tariffs or lesser tariffs than the EU. Whether this would be the case if the UK were still part of the UK is difficult to say because that might make Trump more favourable to the EU.
But who knows how it will all pan out.
I might add that talk of imposing tariffs because of VAT is a complete nonsense because VAT is a purchase tax not a tariff.
[Post edited 28 Feb 10:07]
4. Seems to be particularly important. We’re not a threat in any way to the US/Trump. (Although they could be to us, but that’s another issue).
I have to disagree with this. Britain America trade is roughly balanced and has been for years. And that is without an overarching trade deal. We do have arrangements with some states like Texas but that is it. Leave it.
Any deal of Trump’s will be to his advantage, whether it’s agri products or pharmaceuticals. He doesn’t do deals as we understand them. He does shafting and blackmail.
It is actually to their advantage that they don’t impose tariffs on imports, because a lot of what goes there is specialist stuff they need. They wouldn’t be buying it otherwise. The US is our largest trading partner by country. Deepen that trade in certain areas where mutually beneficial and keep it there.
Where it gets more complex is with military. There’s a lot of shared stuff with the US that cannot be unpicked easily, but over time it can be and should, given the US is no longer a reliable partner. Buy all means buy kit (and spares) for helicopters etc but move towards producing our own in conjunction with our European partners and countries like Japan (proposed fighter replacement).
Trump and his best mate Putin along with Xi would be more than happy for us to break with Europe. Divide and rule. It’s the last thing we need to do. There was a time where if we were faced with a choice, Churchill style, I’d have said America. Not now. If Putin and Trump have done anything it’s to show our most important partners are Europe.
We don’t need to be in the EU to deepen ties and start removing friction to trade and all that stuff. My hope is that the EU loosens the political union nonsense and moves it back to more of a freer, more flexible trading block that does precisely the opposite to Trump - removes trade barriers, but deepens and reforms mutual defence and funds it properly.
It’s a dangerous world out there and sadly, strong military has never been so important since 1989. It shouldn’t be that way, but it is.
Sometimes it's better to say nothing and let people assume you aren't intelligent enough for a grown-up conversation rather than use a lot of incoherent words to to prove it.
Proper trade deals take years to negotiate not a matter of weeks. And considering Trump said he cannot recall calling the Ukrainian president a dictator, I’m not sure we can take anything Trump saids at face value.
Saying that, obviously the government will take the favourable headlines from the right-wing press and will go along with the flow.
I'm impressed, the level of playground banter has certainly upped it's game, however I think the bell just rang so time to leave.
While I usually refrain from entering discussions like this as it is generally a lost cause, I will add what Trump says on one day is completely different to what he does the next.
Point in case - when asked about calling Zelensky a dictator, his response "Did I say that? I can't believe I said that. Next question".
A little sweetener to make sure we accept the US stance re Russia v Ukraine. They would like us onside, I expect we will hear reference to the special relationship trotted out.
Trump makes trade deals and then rips them up when it suits him. He ripped up NAFTA and replaced it with USMCA in July 2020. 2 weeks ago he said he was going to rip up USMCA as it was a terrible deal. It was his deal and he signed it. A pushback against Trump & Musk is coming soon and Trump will flip-flop. Deals he makes now could easily change or indeed vanish altogether in 3 months time. Getting into bed with Trump ends up with you getting shafted and not in a nice way.
Don't believe a word I say. I'm only kidding. Or am I?
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