| 11 points from 15 08:34 - Nov 24 with 4946 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
Averaging 2.2 points a game over the last 5. Promotion form.
You wouldn't think it though. |  |
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| 11 points from 15 (n/t) on 10:48 - Nov 24 with 513 views | homer_123 |
| 11 points from 15 (n/t) on 10:40 - Nov 24 by hammo56 |
Exactly. Over 15 games we are averaging 1.6 points per game. Certainly wouldn’t be enough for automatic promotion and if it continues for the rest of the season we would end up with around 73 points. Yes you can say that 11 points from 15 is automatic form but if we go and lose the next 3 away games will the same people say we are showing relegation form? |
Last 10 matches, second only to Cov in the form table.
So, the direction of travel over the last 5 or 10 games is a positive one. I go back to your OP - even if this is our 4th gear, to your point, we are still tracking very well and on for promotion. |  |
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| 11 points from 15 on 10:49 - Nov 24 with 509 views | homer_123 |
| 11 points from 15 on 10:45 - Nov 24 by Guthrum |
That 8th place does not take into account that everyone else (apart from Blackburn) have played one match more then ourselves. Depending upon the result of that game in hand, our "real" League position is 6th or even 3rd, i.e. in the play-offs, as well as 8th.
Also, our points per game after 4 matches was 0.75, after 8 it was 1.25, after 12 it was 1.33 and after 15 it is 1.6*, a steady upward trend. A faltering start to the season becomes irrelevant if there is sufficient improvement thereafter.
* Corrected. I misread a table which showed Saturday as game 16, not our 16th game. [Post edited 24 Nov 10:48]
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My point exactly, the trend is an upward curve in terms of return. | |
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| 11 points from 15 (n/t) on 10:57 - Nov 24 with 494 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 11 points from 15 (n/t) on 10:48 - Nov 24 by homer_123 |
Last 10 matches, second only to Cov in the form table.
So, the direction of travel over the last 5 or 10 games is a positive one. I go back to your OP - even if this is our 4th gear, to your point, we are still tracking very well and on for promotion. |
That's true. Although in the 10 game form table there is only 3 points between us (in 2nd) and Millwall in 12th. It is much of a muchness really. And we are tracking at 1.8 points a game over that period which is more top play off form rather than automatic promotion form.
We have a strong base to build from and we are well positioned but the foot needs to go on the gas soon as we need to differentiate ourselves from the rest of the pack. |  | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 10:59 - Nov 24 with 488 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| 11 points from 15 on 10:07 - Nov 24 by MrPotatoHead |
I think its fair to be disappointed when we draw at home to a depleted Wrexham (no disrespect to them) and fail to create much. In isolation it was a disappointing performance and result.
That doesn't mean its all a disaster though. I don't feel like we've got out of 3rd gear yet and as you say we're still accumulating points. We're a game in hand win away from 3rd, which feels a bit ridiculous as its all felt a bit average so far, but that's obviously good news and encouraging for us. We're very capable of going through the gears, I look at most of the other sides and Coventry and perhaps Southampton aside I don't see a team likely to post a 90+ point season. Its there for the taking, we're capable of taking it, lets just hope we do.
People need to just enjoy the season and not look too far ahead though, we're going in to every game knowing we have a good chance of winning, we've got 10 games in the next 5 weeks, we've got no VAR. This is what we all missed last season. |
It's completely wrong to say we're not creating - we are, and I've highlighted the stats for recent matches before.
Let's take this weekend, and look at our stats vs some of the other teams.
We're just not taking enough chances - especially the 'Big Chances'. We should be scoring from the majority of these, and we're not in too many games. Compare us to others, and the message is stark. | | | |
| 11 points from 15 (n/t) on 11:01 - Nov 24 with 484 views | homer_123 |
| 11 points from 15 (n/t) on 10:57 - Nov 24 by tractorboy1978 |
That's true. Although in the 10 game form table there is only 3 points between us (in 2nd) and Millwall in 12th. It is much of a muchness really. And we are tracking at 1.8 points a game over that period which is more top play off form rather than automatic promotion form.
We have a strong base to build from and we are well positioned but the foot needs to go on the gas soon as we need to differentiate ourselves from the rest of the pack. |
But if you trend it from the start of the season to the last 15 games, the last 10 games, the last 5 games and then look at the PPG return, you'll see it is tracking upwards.
So our direction is very good. | |
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:03 - Nov 24 with 487 views | HighgateBlue |
It's not promotion form.
You've got to make some effort to weigh the value of the form.
We haven't beaten anyone outside the bottom ten. Not in the last five games, not in any other period of time you want to cherry pick, and not all season. |  | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:03 - Nov 24 with 478 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| 11 points from 15 on 08:45 - Nov 24 by Herbivore |
Go back a bit further to the end of the transfer window and since then it's 21 points from 11 games, which is basically automatic promotion form and has us second in the table over that time with a game in hand.
We've been far from perfect and there's a sense it's not clicking yet but despite that we are dominating most games and we are picking up points at a reasonable rate. The absolute state of some of the posts on here since Saturday afternoon, a neutral reading the forum would think we're winless in 5 rather than unbeaten. |
I still think we go up automatically personally.
When it clicks, we win and win well. QPR, Swansea, Sister-shaggers, Sheff United, etc and look like we ought to score 6 or 7. When it doesn’t, we still often ought to win the game and are still getting narrow wins or draws more often than not. Rarely a defeat.
If we can just take our chances in the very tight games (Azons two chances in the Watford draw, McAteers sitter on Saturday are two clear examples), it’ll make the table look a lot brighter. Which is saying something when we’re 3rd if we win the game in hand.
It’s also worth noting McKenna has us finding form after Christmas every single season bat last year. And we’ve been and done it when the games come thick and fast and we’re in a top 2 battle and have to keep winning big games, he’s proven he knows how to get us firing at the right time.
I think we go up top two and I still expect a Coventry wobble at some point so don’t rule out winning the league just yet. |  |
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:07 - Nov 24 with 472 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:03 - Nov 24 by HighgateBlue |
It's not promotion form.
You've got to make some effort to weigh the value of the form.
We haven't beaten anyone outside the bottom ten. Not in the last five games, not in any other period of time you want to cherry pick, and not all season. |
I've already debunked this silly comment when it was made elsewhere.
I do think there is a tendency to overreact to every bump in the road on here by SuffolkPunchFC 23 Nov 21:10”We haven't beaten one side outside of the bottom 10 yet…”
This is just snapshotting a fairly meaningless criteria at this stage in the season. It would have more meaning in 2-3 months. Many of the teams in the bottom 10 right now have been much higher in the table (top 6 or better). So us beating them will have contributed to their drop in the table.
There are much better metrics to judge us by.
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:08 - Nov 24 with 467 views | davblue |
| 11 points from 15 on 10:45 - Nov 24 by Guthrum |
That 8th place does not take into account that everyone else (apart from Blackburn) have played one match more then ourselves. Depending upon the result of that game in hand, our "real" League position is 6th or even 3rd, i.e. in the play-offs, as well as 8th.
Also, our points per game after 4 matches was 0.75, after 8 it was 1.25, after 12 it was 1.33 and after 15 it is 1.6*, a steady upward trend. A faltering start to the season becomes irrelevant if there is sufficient improvement thereafter.
* Corrected. I misread a table which showed Saturday as game 16, not our 16th game. [Post edited 24 Nov 10:48]
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All true points.
It’s the age old thing that people just assume that a game in hand = 3 points. |  | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:09 - Nov 24 with 469 views | Guthrum |
| 11 points from 15 on 09:25 - Nov 24 by portmanking |
I think it's partly that, but we did also start the season in attacking fashion during home games. The last 4-6 weeks at home has been much more laboured. It's not easy when teams shove nine men behind the ball, but it reinforces the need to come out of the traps flying. |
A lot of people assume there is a magical way to overcome the "low block" (ultra-compacted defence). But there isn't, without a mistake being made by the defending side. The only way a team can try to force that is by patient probing. And, if the opposition are very well drilled, capable and alert, it may never happen.
Speed can be good if there's a chance of getting through before the block is effectively formed. But once it has, careful examination and movement of the ball from one side to the other is all you can do. Those hoping to receive the ball for a shot will be outnumbered. Interceptors will be in position. Any attempt to drive through will be converged upon.
We do have players talented enough to dribble the ball through a pack of men (notably Clarke and Philogene). But when all outlets are also blocked, odds of three or four to one are eventually going to tell in the defenders' favour. |  |
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:11 - Nov 24 with 459 views | Vaughan8 |
Of course you're going to get the two extreme reactions. SOmne overly "happy" with how we are playing (despite the game being awful) and others being overly critical.
I'm guessing the mian gripe is the last 6 games we've had 4 home games - W1, D2 L! and lets face it, in all 4 its been pretty dire for most of it. Scored 2 goals.
The game we eventually won (West brom) they practically gave us it (though good finish by Clarke)
Away form is far greater than I'd have thought. Home games (and form) have been poor lets face it. | | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:11 - Nov 24 with 454 views | Guthrum |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:08 - Nov 24 by davblue |
All true points.
It’s the age old thing that people just assume that a game in hand = 3 points. |
Which you're right, it doesn't. That has to be earnt. But even a draw would put us in the play offs (as things stand currently). | |
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:17 - Nov 24 with 434 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:03 - Nov 24 by HighgateBlue |
It's not promotion form.
You've got to make some effort to weigh the value of the form.
We haven't beaten anyone outside the bottom ten. Not in the last five games, not in any other period of time you want to cherry pick, and not all season. |
As has been pointed out by others, that stat is a bit misleading for two reasons. You can only play what's in front of you, and we haven't played most of the teams above us. And with the teams we've beaten, us beating them is partly what puts them in the bottom half.
There's also the possibilty we'll do better against the better teams as they are more likely to come at us rather than low block to stop us. |  |
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:21 - Nov 24 with 421 views | HighgateBlue |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:07 - Nov 24 by SuffolkPunchFC |
I've already debunked this silly comment when it was made elsewhere.
I do think there is a tendency to overreact to every bump in the road on here by SuffolkPunchFC 23 Nov 21:10”We haven't beaten one side outside of the bottom 10 yet…”
This is just snapshotting a fairly meaningless criteria at this stage in the season. It would have more meaning in 2-3 months. Many of the teams in the bottom 10 right now have been much higher in the table (top 6 or better). So us beating them will have contributed to their drop in the table.
There are much better metrics to judge us by.
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Surely you would accept that when you assess the value of form, you must assess the strength of the opposition played during the period in question?
Disagreeing with something is not debunking it.
And yes, beating a team will contribute to their position in the table, that is agreed. But when we're 35% of the way through the season, one game against Ipswich has only a very small impact on a team's current position. Given that we've only beaten 6 teams, which of those do you claim would be a great deal higher up if they'd beaten us? It's only QPR and West Brom who would be outside of the bottom 10 if they'd beaten us. Just those two clubs.
It's less silly to make a factual statement about our form than to state that a run of five games against decidedly mediocre teams constitutes promotion form. To get promoted, you need to start beating decent and decent-ish teams. The convenient 5 game time horizon cuts off the previous two games, which were against teams outside of the bottom 10, and we lost both.
I'm not saying we can't get promoted, and I'm not saying McKenna out. Neither am I saying that a fan isn't entitled to ignore form and be relentlessly positive. That's fine, and probably good for one's general happiness. But to pretend to analyse form objectively whilst confining the time horizon to the most convenient period, and make no effort to adjust for the strength of the opponents is not intellectually honest. Our form is not promotion form. I hope it becomes promotion form. But at the moment it's not. | | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:21 - Nov 24 with 416 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:11 - Nov 24 by Vaughan8 |
Of course you're going to get the two extreme reactions. SOmne overly "happy" with how we are playing (despite the game being awful) and others being overly critical.
I'm guessing the mian gripe is the last 6 games we've had 4 home games - W1, D2 L! and lets face it, in all 4 its been pretty dire for most of it. Scored 2 goals.
The game we eventually won (West brom) they practically gave us it (though good finish by Clarke)
Away form is far greater than I'd have thought. Home games (and form) have been poor lets face it. |
I'm not sure I've seen anyone "overly happy". | |
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:39 - Nov 24 with 383 views | JammyDodgerrr |
| 11 points from 15 on 10:16 - Nov 24 by tractorboy1978 |
It's the sort of game we would have won 3-1 in 2023/24. Would have probably been more open but we would have cranked up the pressure second half, peppered the goal and totally over powered them in the end.
'Laboured' has been used further up the thread. I think that is spot on. Everything looks an effort at the moment. We just don't have the patterns of play we had in 23/24 and we are relying on moments to score goals and win us games. |
I don't agree, there were plenty of 0-0's at home during that season, that were similar to this one. |  |
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:45 - Nov 24 with 372 views | tractorboy1978 |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:39 - Nov 24 by JammyDodgerrr |
I don't agree, there were plenty of 0-0's at home during that season, that were similar to this one. |
There were two 0-0s at home - one of them was vs QPR between Christmas and New Year when half our team wasn't available. | | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:46 - Nov 24 with 363 views | FrimleyBlue |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:21 - Nov 24 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I'm not sure I've seen anyone "overly happy". |
Have you missed jasondozzel posting.
They'd be a fire and hes be saying how nice and warm the fire was lol. |  |
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| 11 points from 15 on 11:54 - Nov 24 with 355 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:21 - Nov 24 by HighgateBlue |
Surely you would accept that when you assess the value of form, you must assess the strength of the opposition played during the period in question?
Disagreeing with something is not debunking it.
And yes, beating a team will contribute to their position in the table, that is agreed. But when we're 35% of the way through the season, one game against Ipswich has only a very small impact on a team's current position. Given that we've only beaten 6 teams, which of those do you claim would be a great deal higher up if they'd beaten us? It's only QPR and West Brom who would be outside of the bottom 10 if they'd beaten us. Just those two clubs.
It's less silly to make a factual statement about our form than to state that a run of five games against decidedly mediocre teams constitutes promotion form. To get promoted, you need to start beating decent and decent-ish teams. The convenient 5 game time horizon cuts off the previous two games, which were against teams outside of the bottom 10, and we lost both.
I'm not saying we can't get promoted, and I'm not saying McKenna out. Neither am I saying that a fan isn't entitled to ignore form and be relentlessly positive. That's fine, and probably good for one's general happiness. But to pretend to analyse form objectively whilst confining the time horizon to the most convenient period, and make no effort to adjust for the strength of the opponents is not intellectually honest. Our form is not promotion form. I hope it becomes promotion form. But at the moment it's not. |
Swansea, WBA and QPR have all been much higher - top 10 or better (weren't WBA 2nd at one point?), so that's 50% of the wins (maybe more - I haven't checked).
Later in the season your metric has more meaning.
Trending progress gives much better insight to how we're going.
I'll make a claim right now that I have great confidence in - by the end of the season, the top 10 will be very different to how it looks right now. | | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 12:18 - Nov 24 with 315 views | SheffordBlue |
| 11 points from 15 on 10:27 - Nov 24 by hammo56 |
I keep hearing that we are still in 3rd gear and only playing to 65-70% of our potential but how do we know that is the case? It could be that this is our full potential and like many sides in the Championship our results will continue to vary week to week. |
It's an interesting question. It is of course possible that we're now at the maximum that we can do but personally I don't see it. I think relationships are still building and players knowing more about what their colleagues will do and when - it's just not a straight line curve. There are also a number of players underperforming both their career levels and their underlying stats and it seems likely that that will revert more to the mean over the course of the season.
Just posted it as a poll to see where the board think we're at potential wise! [Post edited 24 Nov 12:20]
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| 11 points from 15 on 12:22 - Nov 24 with 304 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:46 - Nov 24 by FrimleyBlue |
Have you missed jasondozzel posting.
They'd be a fire and hes be saying how nice and warm the fire was lol. |
Where does jasondozzel say he's 'happy' with the situation, since you're calling them out specifically? You'll need to point out that post.
I've seen them say we're inconsistent (which seems the opposite to happy) and that we're trending in the right direction (which is a positive point that many of us see and could be construed as expressing some happiness with the direction we're going in).
That's very different to saying anyone has expressed that they are completely happy with where we are right now - how could anyone be. We're not getting the results we'd like on many occasions, and we'd all like to be top of the table.
However, there is a constant undercurrent from some that we have incompetent management, a coach who's not delivering and players who aren't good enough. Some of us, with a more balanced, pragmatic view have pointed out that the metrics are generally favourable, the season is far from over and we still have a good chance of promotion. Not guaranteed for sure, but we're very much in the mix. Is that being overly happy, or as some like to say - a 'happy clapper'? | | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 12:33 - Nov 24 with 281 views | billlm |
| 11 points from 15 on 08:40 - Nov 24 by homer_123 |
I think reviewing and assessing a match or a series of matches is very much what fans are about. I also think it's healthy to vent (and this is as good a place as any).
Like you though, I see pretty much extreme views, either uber negative or over positive - like a lot of things at the moment - very little in the way of critical, objective thinking.
In short, we've had a somewhat frustrating start to the season and in certain games been far from our best, and have dropped points. But ultimately, we are 8th, with a game in hand and recent form is actually decent.
We're in this for the long game. |
Boils down to our shooting pathetic,
Nunez and macateer put away to fairly reasonable chance boy would it look so different and we're still idling, |  | | |
| 11 points from 15 on 12:33 - Nov 24 with 279 views | FrimleyBlue |
| 11 points from 15 on 12:22 - Nov 24 by SuffolkPunchFC |
Where does jasondozzel say he's 'happy' with the situation, since you're calling them out specifically? You'll need to point out that post.
I've seen them say we're inconsistent (which seems the opposite to happy) and that we're trending in the right direction (which is a positive point that many of us see and could be construed as expressing some happiness with the direction we're going in).
That's very different to saying anyone has expressed that they are completely happy with where we are right now - how could anyone be. We're not getting the results we'd like on many occasions, and we'd all like to be top of the table.
However, there is a constant undercurrent from some that we have incompetent management, a coach who's not delivering and players who aren't good enough. Some of us, with a more balanced, pragmatic view have pointed out that the metrics are generally favourable, the season is far from over and we still have a good chance of promotion. Not guaranteed for sure, but we're very much in the mix. Is that being overly happy, or as some like to say - a 'happy clapper'? |
sorry SP, was making light of it rather than actually meaning he's overly happy. me and JD have had laughs about it, he's a good egg | |
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| 11 points from 15 on 12:46 - Nov 24 with 262 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| 11 points from 15 on 11:21 - Nov 24 by HighgateBlue |
Surely you would accept that when you assess the value of form, you must assess the strength of the opposition played during the period in question?
Disagreeing with something is not debunking it.
And yes, beating a team will contribute to their position in the table, that is agreed. But when we're 35% of the way through the season, one game against Ipswich has only a very small impact on a team's current position. Given that we've only beaten 6 teams, which of those do you claim would be a great deal higher up if they'd beaten us? It's only QPR and West Brom who would be outside of the bottom 10 if they'd beaten us. Just those two clubs.
It's less silly to make a factual statement about our form than to state that a run of five games against decidedly mediocre teams constitutes promotion form. To get promoted, you need to start beating decent and decent-ish teams. The convenient 5 game time horizon cuts off the previous two games, which were against teams outside of the bottom 10, and we lost both.
I'm not saying we can't get promoted, and I'm not saying McKenna out. Neither am I saying that a fan isn't entitled to ignore form and be relentlessly positive. That's fine, and probably good for one's general happiness. But to pretend to analyse form objectively whilst confining the time horizon to the most convenient period, and make no effort to adjust for the strength of the opponents is not intellectually honest. Our form is not promotion form. I hope it becomes promotion form. But at the moment it's not. |
Form is your most recent games, and in our most recent games we're unbeaten in 5. Including games before the transfer window has shut doesn't give a true reflection either, because some of the players hadn't arrived and/or got up to speed.
I also think it's a bit tricky to try to adjust the current form in terms of how strong those teams are. And you can only play what's in front of you.
As has already been said, over the course of the season we may find we get more wins against the 'better' teams who try to attack us, rather than the low block spoiler teams. Hard to say at the moment, but I don't think it's as simple as finding it harder when we play the better teams. The two games coming up v Cov will be interesting to show how well we're placed to challenge. | |
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| 11 points from 15 on 12:51 - Nov 24 with 251 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| 11 points from 15 on 12:33 - Nov 24 by billlm |
Boils down to our shooting pathetic,
Nunez and macateer put away to fairly reasonable chance boy would it look so different and we're still idling, |
You're (correctly) saying how things would be so different if those players had put their sitters away... and yet in another thread you're saying McKenna Out. | |
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