| Venezuela under attack (n/t) 06:40 - Jan 3 with 16986 views | Perublue |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 17:27 - Jan 4 with 1156 views | DJR |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 16:41 - Jan 4 by GlasgowBlue |
Well that didn't take long.
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Depending on translation (and I have seen another one) Zionist tinge or tint is a new one on me. [Post edited 4 Jan 17:29]
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| Fair point of pontification and Venezuelan POV…. BUT on 17:44 - Jan 4 with 1106 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Fair point of pontification and Venezuelan POV…. BUT on 15:41 - Jan 4 by unstableblue |
This is quite a momentous moment in recent history, so it’s right that people debate even pontificate - even on a football forum. Trump has used his deeply damaged and corrupt DOJ (have a listen to some of their DOJ whistleblowers emerging, it’s staggering) to enact regime change on a ridiculous Narco Terrorism charge, as an act of war, with no congress oversight, or communication with allies, this is purely an oil/gas and regional control play. Trump never cares about foreign citizens. Haven’t we learnt that by now?
The arguments being made about Xi and Putin are valid, the West are supposed to uphold the international order that’s why Iraq was so bad.
But to your main point that the people of Venezuela know more than people here. Of course they do, and their joy is understandable given Maduro’s regime, it’s been appalling, but you also need to understand he is a result of previous US meddling. So yes it’s absolutely right to celebrate his departure.
But rather than TWTDers pontificating let’s hear from an expert. Last night they had a leading expert on Oil&Gas, Venezuelan politics and natural resources and head of an international trade federation. An American. It was clear he was a subject matter expert.
In short it is Maduro regime that is the issue, not just Maduro, and there are layers of militia.
The oil price is low. It was US government sanctions that made US companies leave, hence the infrastructure has decayed. Given the oil price, over supply over the next 5 years, and easier projects in the pipeline, and CRUCIALLY oil and gas companies never wanting to invest without country security. Albeit the oil type is attractive. Well it’s really questionable that any real uplift in oil and gas revenues is on the cards for years and years, there will some positive immediate gains from moving limited heavy oil to US refineries rather than Chinese shadow fleets.
Another expert this morning stated that they currently have 50k troop potential, but they’ll need 150-200k. And the lesson from Iraq is you need to spend billions to rebuild the Government and infrastructure. And other red flags.
In short it’s very questionable what is going to now happen. With linited appetite in the US public for this expense, [Post edited 4 Jan 16:19]
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The Economist reaffirms my position that the US leadership’s view of the economics of Venezuela’s oil is dubious. They estimate $110bn investment is needed to return Venezuelan production to to any significant amount (it’s currently just 1pc of global output). That’s twice the amount of capital US E&P firms invest globally in a year. The oil majors will likely shy away from that given current oil prices. It might mean the ironically the US government has to subsidise investment.
“ So far American majors have remained silent on the president’s call to arms. Nor are global commodity traders “in the starting blocks”, says Jean-François Lambert, a consultant. Banks and insurers, which would be needed to finance and secure shipments, would be even slower to return.”
“ Many analysts expect surpluses to lower global oil prices towards $50 a barrel, and possibly below, this year and next—under the breakeven price for most existing Venezuelan fields with decent reserves. New projects are often even less competitive.” |  | | |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 18:00 - Jan 4 with 1059 views | Perublue |
Just had a wander down the street to the shop and had my hand shaken by 3 people in the neighbourhood we know in passing.. spent 20 years telling people I’m not bloody American.. this time I let it fly. | |
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| Fair point of pontification and Venezuelan POV…. BUT on 18:08 - Jan 4 with 1038 views | unstableblue |
| Fair point of pontification and Venezuelan POV…. BUT on 17:44 - Jan 4 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
The Economist reaffirms my position that the US leadership’s view of the economics of Venezuela’s oil is dubious. They estimate $110bn investment is needed to return Venezuelan production to to any significant amount (it’s currently just 1pc of global output). That’s twice the amount of capital US E&P firms invest globally in a year. The oil majors will likely shy away from that given current oil prices. It might mean the ironically the US government has to subsidise investment.
“ So far American majors have remained silent on the president’s call to arms. Nor are global commodity traders “in the starting blocks”, says Jean-François Lambert, a consultant. Banks and insurers, which would be needed to finance and secure shipments, would be even slower to return.”
“ Many analysts expect surpluses to lower global oil prices towards $50 a barrel, and possibly below, this year and next—under the breakeven price for most existing Venezuelan fields with decent reserves. New projects are often even less competitive.” |
Again this is massive TWTD pontification, but I suspect Trump has had guarantees from US refiners that they will take the current (relatively paltry) output, that is currently unable to leave the country due to the blockade*, as it is the right type of oil for current refinery capacity.
But the investment, appetite and stability required for major investment to ramp production to actually help Venezuelans (after a hefty US profit) is a decade timeline, not months or years. And as you say all against the backdrop of a production glut and low prices.
But it’s Rubios statements today that there really has not been regime change, still they demand it, and frankly their levers are choke* the economy and military action - none of which help Venezuelans in the near term. Despite them having every reason to celebrate some momentum towards change. [Post edited 4 Jan 18:10]
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| Fair point of pontification and Venezuelan POV…. BUT on 18:25 - Jan 4 with 982 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Fair point of pontification and Venezuelan POV…. BUT on 18:08 - Jan 4 by unstableblue |
Again this is massive TWTD pontification, but I suspect Trump has had guarantees from US refiners that they will take the current (relatively paltry) output, that is currently unable to leave the country due to the blockade*, as it is the right type of oil for current refinery capacity.
But the investment, appetite and stability required for major investment to ramp production to actually help Venezuelans (after a hefty US profit) is a decade timeline, not months or years. And as you say all against the backdrop of a production glut and low prices.
But it’s Rubios statements today that there really has not been regime change, still they demand it, and frankly their levers are choke* the economy and military action - none of which help Venezuelans in the near term. Despite them having every reason to celebrate some momentum towards change. [Post edited 4 Jan 18:10]
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But it’s not the refining that’s an issue, it’s the actual production which is currently state owned and antiquated. Upscaling production doesn’t look viable at current prices without subsidies.
On the plus side if they can work that out, skilled workers that fled the regime may be able to return for work:
“ Even if enough oil firms could be convinced to cough up, it is doubtful that Venezuela’s oil industry could keep pace. In recent years it has suffered a huge brain drain. Tens of thousands of skilled workers, from engineers to geologists, have left the country. pdvsa is now largely run by the armed forces. To form viable joint ventures with Western firms, the 70,000-strong company would have to be reformed wholesale. It may not be able to serve as a viable partner for many years.” | | | |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 18:52 - Jan 4 with 928 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 12:03 - Jan 4 by noggin |
And you know that because....? |
Because he knows all of them and they are all celebrating of course! |  |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 18:53 - Jan 4 with 921 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 12:11 - Jan 4 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Of course you do. The fact you keep mentioning Trump and not Maduro is just making it ever more obvious. |
Sometimes you just need to be a little less cock JJJ. | |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 18:54 - Jan 4 with 917 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 13:09 - Jan 4 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I don’t watch much network news, it’s usually pretty rubbish, full of commercials and highly partisan in either direction, but I do have the ability to go outside. |
This is loltastic even for you, hilarious. | |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 18:57 - Jan 4 with 899 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 13:18 - Jan 4 by itfcjoe |
“The level of dishonest argument being used in this thread is alarming.”
From what I can see all you disagree with is myself and JJJJ, I’ve made 2 posts on 9 pages. And all I’ve noted is from what I’ve seen a lot of actual Venezuelans seem happy with this news. I’d presume they are on the whole better informed than the posters of TWTD, bar Leitrim who has said his wife is from there.
I just watched some of the Downing Street protest from the professional protestors - talking about how yhe US need to leave to allow the Venezuelans to self determine their future, like it is that easy for them. As always the working classes are a disappointment to the bourgeoisie |
Almost as hilarious as JJJ....good effort comrade! | |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:02 - Jan 4 with 891 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Too white? | |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:05 - Jan 4 with 878 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I’ll ask this politely. Why don’t you just piss off and ignore my posts.
Four one sentence replies with no attempt at engagement just some abuse. You’ll probably get exited and reply to the same post in a moment because you forgot to add some funny remark.
Stick to your anti Jewish stuff and leave me alone please. I actually have zero interest in corresponding with you.
Thanks. |  |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:13 - Jan 4 with 848 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 17:27 - Jan 4 by DJR |
Depending on translation (and I have seen another one) Zionist tinge or tint is a new one on me. [Post edited 4 Jan 17:29]
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Is that the one that says Uppa Towen, McKenna please come. | |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:16 - Jan 4 with 831 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:05 - Jan 4 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I’ll ask this politely. Why don’t you just piss off and ignore my posts.
Four one sentence replies with no attempt at engagement just some abuse. You’ll probably get exited and reply to the same post in a moment because you forgot to add some funny remark.
Stick to your anti Jewish stuff and leave me alone please. I actually have zero interest in corresponding with you.
Thanks. |
Beautiful!! It's hard to ignore your guff though so sorry no can do.
Edit...One sentence dismissive replies are all your insight merits, you're a little better at football stuff mind you. [Post edited 4 Jan 19:18]
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:31 - Jan 4 with 804 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 18:54 - Jan 4 by BanksterDebtSlave |
This is loltastic even for you, hilarious. |
Here is some non-network news for JJJ
Good luck spinning this
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:37 - Jan 4 with 780 views | NthQldITFC |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:31 - Jan 4 by ElderGrizzly |
Here is some non-network news for JJJ
Good luck spinning this
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Rogue superpower it is, unless someone in the US can rein this lunatic in.
Terrifying words, as much for what they effectively give China, Russia and maybe India the green light to do.
The old world order we all grew up with looks like it's going or has it gone already?
edit: Just saw this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/art
If you're still thinking this vvanker represents a sane way forward, ffs think again. [Post edited 4 Jan 19:40]
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:49 - Jan 4 with 759 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:37 - Jan 4 by NthQldITFC |
Rogue superpower it is, unless someone in the US can rein this lunatic in.
Terrifying words, as much for what they effectively give China, Russia and maybe India the green light to do.
The old world order we all grew up with looks like it's going or has it gone already?
edit: Just saw this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/art
If you're still thinking this vvanker represents a sane way forward, ffs think again. [Post edited 4 Jan 19:40]
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Yeah but JJJ and Joe saw some people tooting their horns! | |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 21:31 - Jan 4 with 655 views | DJR |
The final paragraph is certainly not a rational basis for action but accords with the mercurial nature of the Trump administration. It and the following article also indicate that there isn't really a plan.
"The New York Times reports a number of factors finally led the Trump administration to invade Venezuela and abduct president Nicolás Maduro – including Maduro’s dance moves.
The newspaper reports that Trump presented Maduro with an ultimatum in December, telling him to leave office and go into exile in Turkey. Maduro refused.
Then, Maduro went back onstage this week, dancing to an electronic song that said “no crazy war” in his voice.
According to sources the Times spoke with, that was the last straw for the administration.
Maduro’s “regular public dancing and other displays of nonchalance in recent weeks helped persuade some on the Trump team that the Venezuelan president was mocking them and trying to call what he believed to be a bluff,” two confidential sources told the Times."
https://www.theguardian.com/wo [Post edited 4 Jan 21:34]
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 21:37 - Jan 4 with 643 views | Leaky |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 13:49 - Jan 4 by DJR |
Somebody a bit more learned in this area than me has made more eloquently the point I made earlier.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s failure to condemn the US’ actions in Venezuela “speaks volumes”, according to Philippe Sands KC, a specialist in international law who served as a prosecutor for Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet after he was arrested in London in 1998.
He said:
"The action against Venezuela is manifestly illegal under international law, and cannot plausibly or by any reasonable standard be characterised as a law enforcement action. What now is the plan? One need only to think of Nicaragua, Afghanistan and Libya, amongst others, to imagine what the consequences might be, and the encouragement it will surely give to others to act with such brazen disregard for the international legal norms that bind us all.
Equally worrisome is the failure of others to condemn. The apparent silence of the British prime minister speaks volumes. Having lived through the catastrophe and criminality of the Iraq war in 2003, which Mr Trump himself has condemned, I would hope that Keir Starmer sticks to the principles of legality to which he says he is so firmly committed." |
DJR what principles should Starmer stick, I Starmers principles are short supply |  | | |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 21:39 - Jan 4 with 635 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 19:31 - Jan 4 by ElderGrizzly |
Here is some non-network news for JJJ
Good luck spinning this
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He shouldn't be allowed to take Greenland by force but he is spot on when he says that it is surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships, Greenland is strategically very important to the security of the USA so a deal is going to have to be made in one form or another. |  |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 22:22 - Jan 4 with 587 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 21:39 - Jan 4 by GlasgowBlue |
He shouldn't be allowed to take Greenland by force but he is spot on when he says that it is surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships, Greenland is strategically very important to the security of the USA so a deal is going to have to be made in one form or another. |
Why would Greenland/Denmark feel obliged or pressured into doing any sort of unilateral deal with the Trump administration? It seems he only wants to exploit natural resources there. The US is more than capable of defending its borders as things stand and could work with all NATO allies on more proactive security throughout the North Atlantic (and presumably already is). |  |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 22:47 - Jan 4 with 551 views | StokieBlue |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 21:39 - Jan 4 by GlasgowBlue |
He shouldn't be allowed to take Greenland by force but he is spot on when he says that it is surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships, Greenland is strategically very important to the security of the USA so a deal is going to have to be made in one form or another. |
They already have a base there, he just wants the resources.
There is no threat to the the US from anyone.
I'm very surprised you're going with this line.
SB [Post edited 4 Jan 22:50]
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 22:54 - Jan 4 with 534 views | Blueschev |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 21:39 - Jan 4 by GlasgowBlue |
He shouldn't be allowed to take Greenland by force but he is spot on when he says that it is surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships, Greenland is strategically very important to the security of the USA so a deal is going to have to be made in one form or another. |
Isn’t there already a deal called NATO? |  | | |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 23:03 - Jan 4 with 519 views | giant_stow |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 22:22 - Jan 4 by Swansea_Blue |
Why would Greenland/Denmark feel obliged or pressured into doing any sort of unilateral deal with the Trump administration? It seems he only wants to exploit natural resources there. The US is more than capable of defending its borders as things stand and could work with all NATO allies on more proactive security throughout the North Atlantic (and presumably already is). |
Maybe Trump will do the same move twice, minus the kidnapping a president bit? Ie, just tell Greenland, the USA runs tings now. |  |
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| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 23:32 - Jan 4 with 457 views | reusersfreekicks |
| Venezuela under attack (n/t) on 14:10 - Jan 4 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I struggle to see how it’s going to be increasingly dangerous now that Maduru has been removed, when you assess their current living conditions and standard of life. Time will tell.
If like many others you’re talking about the rights and wrongs American interventionism, regime change and the motives behind it, then that’s a separate conversation and of course not particularly unique to current admin either. |
Are you a supporter of Trump?
Did you vote for him? |  | | |
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